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  • in reply to: I tried a total political media blackout last week. #67530
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    I say this in the spirit of comraderie, and with hopes it is seen as a positive message.

    But, the left is a community, because no one can do this alone.

    So I feel a communal obligation to keep info flowing. I can’t do it by myself. As much as I don’t like what’s going on, and don’t want to hear about it, I think we all benefit if everyone tosses in 2 cents when they can.

    It really is weighing personal peace of mind against a community obligation to keep the ideas and info flowing. It’s stocking a resource.

    I side with the latter. In fact I see it as a left principle. That is, if I believe in a world where reason and being informed is a community value, me personally being a certain percentage less irritated on a weekly basis does not factor in much.

    Just a thought, and it;s non-judgmental to its core. If it means something to whoever then cool and if not then not, either way.

    .

    .

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67529
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    Syria Conspiracy Theories Flourish, at Both Ends of the Spectrum

    link: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/10/us/politics/factcheck-syria-strike-conspiracy-theories.html

    A satellite image showed the northwest side of the Shayrat air base in Syria on Friday after a United States strike with Tomahawk missiles. Credit Digital Globe, via Associated Press
    WASHINGTON — President Trump’s order for a cruise missile strike on a Syrian air base, which has alienated some of his supporters, has fueled speculation of hidden motives and hoaxes.

    Websites like Infowars are calling the chemical attack that drew United States fire a “false flag” operation, while liberal blogs have pointed to the strike as evidence of “wag the dog” diversion tactics.

    Ian Bremmer, the founder of the Eurasia group, said he was not “buying any of them” and pointed out that the theories conveniently fit preconceived notions and motives, but don’t really make sense.

    Here’s an assessment of some of them.

    Information Clearing House argued that President Bashar al-Assad had no reason to use chemical weapons

    “With the Syrian Army and its allies in a comfortable position in Syria, making advances across the country, and recovering lost points in rural Hama, why would they now resort to using chemical weapons in Nusra Front-occupied Idlib? It is a very simple question with no clear answer.”

    THIS IS MISLEADING. There are numerous reasons Mr. Assad’s forces would conduct a chemical attack.

    The attack is consistent with Mr. Assad’s calculated strategy of attempting to drive out the civilian population in rebel strongholds through bombing neighborhoods and civilian targets, The Times’s Anne Barnard reported.

    Mr. Assad also may have felt emboldened after Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson and Nikki R. Haley, the United States’ ambassador to the United Nations, suggested that driving him from power was not a priority.

    So using sarin gas “made a lot of sense after public signals that the U.S. might not be seeking to oust him,” said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “You don’t need to kill a lot of people, but you can frighten a lot of people.”

    We Are Change claimed anti-Assad forces had advance knowledge of the sarin attack.

    “A Syrian reporter for Gulf-based Orient TV tweeted about the attack 24 hours before it took place.”

    FALSE. Infowars and others pointed to social media posts from Feras Karam, a reporter for Orient News, as evidence of a hoax. But Mr. Karam was referring to a different attack.

    “Tomorrow is the launch of a media campaign to cover the intensity of the airstrikes on the countryside of #Hama and use of #poison_chlorine against civilians,” Mr. Karam wrote on Facebook and Twitter on April 3.

    Sarin gas hit the town of Khan Sheikhoun early on the morning of April 4 in the rebel-held Idlib Province. That’s about 36 kilometers north of Hama, which Mr. Karam alleged had been targeted by chlorine a day earlier.

    Chlorine attacks, as The Times has reported, are less deadly and have been almost routine in Syria.

    Infowars claimed that the White Helmets were the real culprits.

    “The White Helmets, an Al Qaeda affiliated group funded by George Soros and the British government, have reportedly staged another chemical weapon attack on civilians in the Syrian city of Khan Shaykhun to lay blame on the Syrian government.”

    NO EVIDENCE. The White Helmets are volunteers that act as emergency medical workers in Syria. Allegations about their ties to terrorists and complicity in the chemical attack are unproven.

    The websites offer no evidence for their claim that the White Helmets are “Al Qaeda affiliated” beyond implying that it cannot be a coincidence that 250 people in Hama were kidnapped by Al Qaeda a week before the sarin attack, “which is the same number as the current body count of wounded and killed civilians.”

    The Times could not locate reports from credible media sources about the alleged recent kidnapping, and the 250 figure is unsubstantiated as well. Initial estimates for the death toll ranged from dozens to as many as 100 in the immediate aftermath of the attack. Unicef said 546 people were injured, “among them many children.”

    Mr. Assad himself accused the White Helmets of being “Al Qaeda members” without evidence in an interview in March with RT, a news outlet funded by the Russian government. (RT and Sputnik News regularly link the nongovernment organization to different terrorist groups.)

    Given Russia’s support of Mr. Assad, casting doubt on the White Helmets is “basic counterinsurgency in certainly ruthless terms,” Mr. Cordesman said. “If you can alter the flow of aid, you can depopulate the area and essentially gain control of territory.”

    The websites also questioned why White Helmets appeared to be “unaffected” even though some had treated victims without wearing gloves. But some rescue workers did grow ill and collapsed from exposure.

    Another theory posited by the websites suggested that Mr. Assad couldn’t have been capable of launching the attack because President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry declared Syria’s stockpile eliminated in 2014, while opposition forces still had chemical weapons.

    Obama administration officials have maintained that Mr. Assad might have hidden a small supply. It’s also possible that Syrian government manufactured new weapons. Suggestions that rebel forces were behind the attack are dubious, Mr. Cordesman said, because of the nature of sarin.

    “You don’t suddenly bomb a sarin gas deposit and have sarin gas emerge,” he said. “It isn’t armed. The rebels couldn’t have been stockpiling in secret. It’s really difficult to assemble.”

    Salon questioned Mr. Trump’s giving Russia advance notice of the airstrike.

    “Donald Trump, who’s totally not Vladimir Putin’s puppet, warned Russia before airstrikes on Syria.”

    THIS NEEDS CONTEXT. The Pentagon said Russian forces were notified in advance of the strike to minimize the risk to Syrian or Russian soldiers. But there are explanations other than collusion.

    The United States has been engaging in an air war against Islamic State fighters in Syria, where Russian and Syrian forces also operate. Even with advance notice, the airstrike has threatened cooperation, or rather lack of interference, and strained diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia.

    Not warning the Russians would have forced a much more severe response from Moscow and would have been “completely irresponsible,” Mr. Bremmer said.

    “It’s certainly true that Trump doesn’t want the level of scrutiny on the Russia ties, but he does want a better relationship,” Mr. Bremmer said. “It’s very clear that the Russians are very unhappy so the idea that there’s coordination is ludicrous.”

    The Palmer Report pointed to the strike’s limited efficacy.

    “Donald Trump gets defensive about Syria runways, tacitly admitting he was doing Russia’s bidding.”

    NO EVIDENCE. The 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles were aimed at Syrian fighter jets and aircraft shelters at Shayrat airfield, but did leave the runways intact. Suggestions that the United States spared the airstrips because of collusion are, again, unproven.

    Mr. Bremmer said that he was surprised the United States didn’t seek to degrade the base further, but emphasized that there was “zero evidence” the limited strike was a facade.

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67527
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    Russia ‘furious’ with Assad over gas attack

    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/russia-us-chemical-weapons-attack-assad-putin-tillerson.html

    Privately, Russian officials are furious with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a suspected April 4 chemical weapons attack in Idlib province that killed over 80 people, Russia analysts said. They see it as threatening to sabotage the potential for US-Russia rapprochement ahead of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s first visit to Moscow this week.

    But Russia is also confused by what it perceives as contradictory statements from various top Trump Cabinet officials on whether US policy is shifting to demand Assad’s ouster, to what degree does the United States think Russia is culpable for Assad’s behavior, and more broadly, who from the administration speaks for Donald Trump, they said.

    “Assad committed suicide here,” Michael Kofman, a Russia military expert with the Kennan Institute, told Al-Monitor in an interview April 10. Russia “will never forgive him for this.”

    TheApril 4 nerve gas attack on rebel-held Khan Sheikhoun that killed over 80 people, many of them children, “is a complete disaster” for Russia, Kofman said. “It destroyed the legacy of the 2013 deal [to remove Syria’s chemical weapons] that both countries [the United States and Russia] certified. So it made liars of both of us.”

    He noted, “It provided all the ammunition to sabotage rapprochement between the United States and Russia. Look at the atmospherics. It caused public embarrassment. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has to swallow US cruise missile strikes. Notice he has not defended Assad. It looks bad for Russia.”

    Kofman added, “It demonstrates … in terms of Putin being a power broker … that the Russian role is very aspirational. It prevented him from doing this.”

    “The Russians weren’t happy about what happened,” Nikolas Gvosdev, a Russia expert and professor at the US Naval War College, told Al-Monitor, referring to the April 4 chemical weapons attack. “They don’t like unpredictability … when things happen that throw what they are planning off course.”

    “The Russians don’t like to be surprised,” Gvosdev added. “They don’t like … [to be made to] look like they can’t enforce agreements or don’t have as much influence over Assad as they were suggesting.”

    While US officials have said the US cruise missile strikes on the Shayrat air base on April 6 were to punish and deter Syria’s use of chemical weapons, there has been some confusion caused by statements from different Trump Cabinet officials on whether US policy is creeping toward regime change. US officials, including US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, have also suggested Russia was either complicit or incompetent for Assad’s chemical weapons attack. They have expressed anger that Russia has, in their opinion, tried to publicly sow disinformation about it.

    Even while pressuring Russia because of its diplomatic and military support to Assad, McMaster reiterated that the United States is still looking for a political resolution to end Syria’s civil war.

    Assad’s actions have upended what was an important foreign policy priority for Putin — exploring the potential for cooperation with the United States on Syria and a possible rapprochement — and have seemingly taken sanctions relief off the table for discussion for now, and Russia will not forgive him, Kofman said.

    “They are furious; it is very clear,” Kofman said, noting that there has been “no actual statement from Putin in support of Assad.”

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67525
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    Being in the fact-gathering stage maybe what we’re left with, when all is said and done. Again, I doubt the truth will come out for a long, long time.

    I am not buying this. The truth is already out…some people are trying to obscure it. Not sure why anyone would want to contest that…nothing is gained either way by pretending the Syrian and Russian versions (which are actually different) make any sense.

    (BTW I am also not buying the latest Trump administration escalation on this which claims the Russians knew in advance the attack was coming. The most reasonable take on this to me is that Assad just went back on his agreement from 2013 to not use chemical weapons again–an agreement that involved both the USA and Russia.)

    What’s surprising in the 2010s, which is very different from the run-up to the Iraq war, is that some leftie blogger types are buying into the Russian and Syrian routines on this.

    If you read closely about the 2013 chemical attack, the one that led to massive international pressure and even had Assad publicly declaring he would abandon chemical weapons programs, the military capacity to track Syrian communications and flights is very sophisticated. Which, again, is why the Russian cover story had to at least include the facts that there were Syrian planes involved AND that there was an actual chemical attack. (Assad’;s “denial” didn’t even do that much.)

    To me this “it’s not clear” motif has about the same degree of minor annoyance as did having to debate serious people who bought into Russian trolling and were actually trying to claim that Hillary had a minor campaign person assassinated.

    It’s a new factor in discussing issues.

    It was far easier to pull up info back in the run-up to war in Iraq, when the left wasn’t divided by bad conspiracy theories.

    Just a man’s opinion.

    But I have shut down sources and took them off of bookmarks that show any hint of just parroting the Russian views on Syria. They do not help. They are part of the problem.

    in reply to: Laurinaitis Retires #67524
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    Knee issue hastened Laurinaitis’ retirement

    Jim Thomas

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/thomas-knee-issue-hastened-laurinaitis-retirement/article_7db0fd88-91e0-5059-84c6-5898dbe72237.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    The moment of truth for James Laurinaitis came in December when he had a workout for Kansas City.

    With Derrick Johnson out for the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon and the Chiefs considering help at middle linebacker, it could have been a chance for Laurinaitis to finally play in his first NFL playoff game.

    He felt good during the workout, headed to the airport, flew home, and just like that experienced swelling in his right knee. For a week.

    “That was a 25-minute workout,” Laurinaitis recalled. “It was time.”

    Time to call it a career. Oh, he still had the itch. When his former defensive coordinator with the St. Louis Rams was hired in Cleveland — Gregg Williams — Laurinaitis thought about giving him a call.

    But the more he thought about it, the more he realized it was time to walk away from the game —while he still could walk relatively pain free.

    “When you have daughters, you’ve got to think about walking them down the aisle in 25 years, man,” Laurinaitis said. “So I’ve gotta keep this body together somewhat.”

    Originally, he wanted to announce his retirement in February, but agent Tom Condon told him to wait a while. Make sure.

    Laurinaitis, 30, was sure. On Tuesday, with spring workouts starting all over the NFL, Laurinaitis announced his retirement on social media. He was finished playing a game he started playing at age 4, getting orange slices at halftime and Capri Sun juice drinks afterward.

    “I told myself when I entered the league, I didn’t want to steal from the game,” Laurinaitis said.

    Things finally reached the point where a deteriorating right knee would’ve made it stealing from the game in Laurinaitis’ mind.

    He never talked about it while playing with the Rams in St. Louis, but in a Friday phone interview with the Post-Dispatch, Laurinaitis detailed a painful knee issue that first cropped up in 2014.

    There was no specific play or incident that caused the knee problems, just wear and tear that led to continual soreness and swelling.

    “That’s when I started getting gel injections to try to stop the deterioration of the knee,” he said. “Once you start to lose cartilage, or get a gap in your cartilage, there’s really no growing it back.”

    Rams trainer Reggie Scott helped with exercises to try to keep the surrounding muscles strong. But there were lots of times that Laurinaitis needed to get the knee drained.

    “And way too many CCs (of liquid) coming out of that thing,” he said.

    No surgery was done because there was no surgery that could help. Laurinaitis couldn’t do his normal training during the offseason, and that contributed to his deteriorating play over the final part of his seven-year stay with the Rams.

    “No matter how smart you are, it’s unrealistic to think that you can not train in the offseason like you want to and then expect to have results on Sunday,” he said. “And that’s kinda basically the tailspin I’ve been in since ’14.”

    He was released by the Rams following the 2015 season and signed with New Orleans. But he suffered a quad injury in Game 3 of the 2016 season with the Saints and never played another down at middle linebacker. After missing some time, he played only special teams before being released.

    The quad injury was in his right leg, and probably was a direct result of not being able to do the necessary offseason training because of the right knee issue.

    It hurts to walk down the stairs sometimes, but Laurinaitis should be able to walk daughters London (age 2½) and Hayden (two weeks) down the wedding aisle some day.

    James, wife Shelly, their two daughters, and four dogs call Nashville home these days. The family moved there after his release by the Rams 14 months ago.

    Now that his playing days are over, Laurinaitis hopes to get into the broadcast business as an analyst at the pro or college level. Given his knowledge of the game, his communication skills and his touch of humor, he should flourish in that profession.

    He already has laid some groundwork speaking with contacts in the business. In fact, he tagged along with fellow Ohio State Buckeye and Nashville neighbor Kirk Herbstreit late last season for the College Gameday show on ESPN. He also watched Herbstreit work the Oklahoma-West Virginia game last season from the booth.

    “I’m gonna talk football regardless, whether I’m a broadcaster or not,” Laurinaitis said. “So you might as well try to make a good living out of it. Because I just love the game a lot.”

    He said he plans to attend the NFL’s Broadcast Boot Camp media seminar next month “and just kinda see where it goes from there.”

    If nothing materializes immediately, well, there’s a high school football team somewhere in Nashville that’s going to get a heck of a linebackers coach next fall.

    “I’m looking forward to the next chapter, man,” Laurinaitis said. “I really am.”

    in reply to: LA Times Rams mailbag #67519
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    I will keep posting these cause, Duty.

    But he’s answering questions from kindergartners.

    And they are kindergarten answers.

    Meaning: the questions and answers are all basic. Well-informed posters already know more.

    in reply to: Football Outsiders says Rams were healthiest team in 2016 #67505
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    I often wondered if the turf of the Dome had a hand in the rash of injuries the Rams endured.

    Then I would read stories talking about the turf they had and how great it was…so…IDK.

    I would think, other teams players would get injuries while playing the good guys at the Dome….then, a direct correlation could be drawn I guess.

    I was thinking that it was just a matter of constant repetition—that playing on that surface just made it a matter of time before being hurt. And it wasn’t the turf as much as what was under it. Solid concrete, very hard they say.

    Though, mostly, that was linemen. I can’t say what the connection would be–what is it about the surface and playing OL that might do that?

    But anyway these are the periods of RELATIVE health for the Rams offensive line since 2006, “relative health” being just 1 or 2 injuries, not simultaneous multiple injuries:

    2006: not
    2007: way not, one of the worst ever
    2008: not
    2009: not
    2010: RELATIVELY HEALTHY all year
    2011: not
    2012: not for the 1st 8 games, RELATIVELY HEALTHY for the last 8 games
    2013: RELATIVELY HEALTHY most of the year, though there was a slaughter in the last 4 games
    2014: not
    2015: not…PLUS inexperienced
    2016: RELATIVELY HEALTHY all year

    in reply to: scientists debate where the moon came from #67487
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    Everyone knows the moon is made of cheese.

    You know, and this is just me, but, that account does not strike me as being scientifically credible or up to date.

    You know, just, IMHO.

    .

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67485
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    I think it’s likely that chemical weapons were used, and that Assad is responsible. My point above is that this is the fog of war, and we can’t be certain about anything other than the fact of war itself.

    Well I agree with the liklihood that Assad used them (and that he has before.)

    However, this does not strike me as a fog of war situation. It’s more like a fog of propaganda situation.

    It is actually not that hard for the surveillance systems involved to say what aircraft flew from where to where.

    This is why the Russian denial is not as flat stupid as Assad’s. Assad, who of course is as much a pig as Hussein ever was, denies anything happened at all. The Russians in contrast acknowledge (1) that Assad’s aircraft were involved (because they know full well that american detection capacities extend to knowing at least THAT much), and (2) that there were injuries and deaths from chemical weapons (because the know full well that UN personnel had access to some of the injured) BUT their claim is that Assad attacked rebels who had chemical weapons and those went off…not that Assad’s guys dropped them. So the Russian story at least accounts for what they know would be known information. However, their version also names specific buildings that were targetted and as it happens Guardian reporters were on the ground there and checked that story out and it was bs.

    The real issue, IMO, is whether a pointless and ineffectual grandstanding attack accomplishes anything or whether it’s just an escalation with us acting like we can do what we want when we want militarily. We probably agree on that, too.

    in reply to: big draft thread #2 #67482
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    from Rams, NFL Mock Draft 2017: Predicting picks in rounds 1-7

    Howard Balzer, NFLDraftScout.com

    http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2017/04/14/Los-Angeles-Rams-NFL-Mock-Draft-2017-Predicting-picks-in-rounds-1-7/1611492181542/

    MOCK DRAFT

    Below is a list of every pick for the Rams in the 2017 NFL Draft.

    Round and overall pick number listed, along with player, position, school, height, weight and 40-yard dash time. (* – indicates compensatory pick)

    2/37: Takk McKinley, DE/OLB, UCLA (6-2, 250, 4.59)

    3/69: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC (6-1, 215, 4.54)

    4/112: Tyler Orlosky, OC, West Virginia (6-3, 298, 5.37)

    4/*141: Danny Isidora, OG, Miami (Fla.) (6-3, 306, 5.00)

    5/149: Jadar Johnson, S, Clemson (6-0, 206, 4.60)

    6/189: Nate Hairston, CB, Temple (6-0, 196, 4.52)

    6/207: Tanner Vallejo, LB, Boise State (6-1, 228, 4.65)

    7/234: Cethan Carter, TE, Nebraska (6-3, 241, 4.65)

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67478
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    Or, if chemical weapons were used at all

    Even the Russians don’t deny that much. UN people were able to examine some of the victims. The Russian version is that the chemical attack came from Assad forces bombing rebel chemical weapons which went off and the civilians were just collateral damage. The Russians even went so far as to name particular buildings that were involved. The Guardian had people on the ground who checked out the Russian story and called it bogus.

    So again…remember, the Russians do not deny people were killed and injured by chemical weapons. It’s only the earlier deniers who were saying that.

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    New Rams OL Andrew Whitworth has left Cincinnati for the Rams and talks to John about his health, his career longevity and has a message for NFL Draft prospects.

    in reply to: French Bernie, and 3 Ideologies… #67469
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    1) The old order, seemingly in decline, represented by establishment center-left and center-right politicians;
    2) the proto-fascist, ethnocentric nationalists of the far right; and
    3) a reinvigorated, radical social-democratic challenge from the left….”

    Leaving me pondering, which one do I choose?

    Hmm.

    in reply to: Football Outsiders says Rams were healthiest team in 2016 #67468
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    Makes you wonder.

    Maybe the cause of all those multiple times extremely a lot OL injuries over the years came from playing in the dome.

    Just a thought.

    in reply to: Several Rams defensive players are due for an extension #67467
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    You have to pick which ones and the ones you can’t pick you have to replaces with younger cheaper players.

    Well that’s all true, plus on top of it, this regime has gotten pretty good at bringing in short term “gap filler” FAs. Not talking about guys like Whitworth, who are big money high profile FAs. Talking about guys like Fairley, Easley, Sullivan. This year’s list is full of guys like that: Tyrunn Walker, Barwin, Dunbar, Webster, Robey-Coleman. I predict most if not all of them will stick and contribute.

    Plus of course they are very good at finding UDFAs.

    I see no problem in them keeping big marquee guys and then constantly pulling in replacements, both in the draft and UDFAs and in the “stopgap/low budget” FA market.

    .

    in reply to: big draft thread #2 #67466
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    Wildflecken wrote:

    This is the deepest draft class in years. I think this class will exceed the norm by leaps and bounds and will put a significant number of players into the NFL who end up making it a living and signing second contracts. Teams seeking qb and offensive line talent will need to pull the trigger early when draft arrives, but nearly every other position is very rich in talent. When is the last time you seen a draft have two prospects who will in all likelihood contribute on both sides of the ball at the next level in Peppers and Jackson? For a team like the Rams who fielded a capable defense but are converting to a new defensive scheme this offseason, this draft alone could complete the transition and add the talent Phillips needs to take it to the elite level. A level that results in a championship similar to the 2013 Seahawks or 2015 Broncos.

    McVay will groom and evaluate the wr’s added last offseason, in the draft and as UDFA’s, and give them an opportunity in 2017. Look for the remainder of the draft to address building the defense to Phillips liking.

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67464
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    As time clicks by this gets more incoherent. Assad denies anything took place. Russia, after UN people saw victims in a Turkish facility, does not deny there was a chemical attack, just that it wasn’t Assad’s Syrians who did it. The Russian claim now is not to deny something happened involving chemical weapons, but that the Assad forces were bombing terrorists who had the weapons. (They say THAT, which they can’t prove, at the same time they do they you can’t prove it line.) Against the charge that Assad has used chemical weapons before, some claim it did not happen, but truth is back then, in the face of huge international pressure in 2013, Assad openly and explicitly agreed to eliminate his chemical weapons program. Russians demand “proof” that the Assad regime was involved in the attack, and remember they (unlike Assad) are not denying there were casualties of chemical weapons, but they know full well that the kind of intel that would track flights of Syrian (and Russian) planes in the area is never going to be made public…and their so-called proof that it was a terrorist facility got demolished because Guardian reporters on the ground were capable of inspecting the sites named by the Russians and said the Russian claims were bogus. Meanwhile independents like Cole are relying on sources that are neither American nor Russian.

    My take is this. There was an attack, it has happened before, Assad’s forces did it (like before), the Russian “there is no proof” campaign is just war propaganda, Trump’s response was deliriously ineffective grandstanding, and the only thing that ends all this is a brokered Russian/American deal that halts the war and promises Assad will eventually depart power.

    And I also say that all of the above is A (and not THE ONLY) genuinely left vision of all this. The left being divided on all this to me is just a bad symptom of how info works these days, as opposed to back in the old days, when you could reliably demonstrate the whys and hows and details for the argument against Bush’s iraq invasion.

    in reply to: Peyton to join Rams front office? #67457
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    Would Peyton have that type of power in LA?…My guy says NO.

    Who’s your guy? Is this the Charger coach you met?

    .

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67456
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    You are accepting the Western mantra as proof.

    All I see people doing is comparing the Russian/Assad account with the accounts from others, which are widespread and do not simply reduce to being pro-USA (Cole is deeply critical of USA policy). I like Cole because he reads outside the normal circles–he’s reading, for example middle eastern accounts.

    I just don’t buy the Russian/Assad account for a second, I don’t pay any attention at all to the USA official account, and I look for people like Cole who are just simply not beholden to the USA account and think independently. That’s not “western.” I directly quoted a middle eastern account of this, one Cole cites.

    Meanwhile every denial I see goes straight back to simply repeating Assad/The Russians. And I am no more going to take that version seriously than I was going to give Hussein any credence when I was looking into things leading to the run up to war.

    None of this of course even touches on whether an American attack on Syria was warranted (it wasn’t) and whether or not the USA should be involved in Syria in any way shape or form (it shouldn’t).

    It;s apparently very easy to find things repeating the Russian view. I challenge you to find things that are much more independent and outside the normal circles of the Russian OR the USA propaganda. The kinds of sources I am talking about (like Cole) have much more weight and value than some of the scattered commentators who echo the Russians.

    I don’t buy the “no proof” line wv and I have given it consideration. I think it’s just the Russian view being echoed.

    This for example is just the same old stuff repeated:

    “…However, two new revelations contradict the Trump administration’s line on the April 4 attack. A former US official knowledgeable about the episode told Truthout that the Russians had actually informed their US counterparts in Syria of the Syrian military’s plan to strike the warehouse in Khan Sheikhoun 24 hours before the strike. And a leading analyst on military technology, Dr. Theodore Postol of MIT, has concluded that the alleged device for a sarin attack could not have been delivered from the air but only from the ground, meaning that the chemical attack may not have been the result of the Syrian airstrike….” see link

    That’s just the Russian version in a new repetition.

    Cole is a deep, long, and solid friend of the left, going back years, and way back when was one of the sources that made it possible to understand Iraq. And he is all of those things by virtue of being one of the best informed people on the region. To me he is not be scoffed at just because there’s a faction of euro-lefties that for some reason keep repeating Russian narratives on this.

    It would take a lot to convince me otherwise. A lot more than what I have seen so far anyway.

    And…we have to stay friends in spite of minor differences over one minor incident.

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    QUOTED FROM THE LAST POST ABOVE: Since landing in the NFL in 1976, Phillips has been part of 20 top-10 defenses and has coached 30 Pro Bowlers, five of whom are in the Hall of Fame. And in each of his past six stops as a defensive coordinator, the 69-year-old has overseen drastic improvement. When he took over the Broncos the first time, they went from 27th to fourth in DVOA — defense-adjusted value over average, a measure of a team’s efficiency — in one season. The Bills went from 19th to 10th; the Falcons 26th to 12th; the Chargers 30th to 13th; the Texans 31st to sixth; the Broncos, a second time, fourth to first.

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    Aaron Donald, Alec Ogletree not concerned about Rams’ switch to 3-4

    Alden Gonzalez

    http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/33520/aaron-donald-alec-ogletree-not-concerned-about-rams-switch-to-3-4

    LOS ANGELES — One of the first questions raised when Wade Phillips became the Los Angeles Rams’ defensive coordinator centered on what the shift to a 3-4 scheme would mean for Aaron Donald, the game’s best interior pass-rusher by a wide margin.

    Well …

    “Same thing,” Donald said Monday, the first day of the Rams’ offseason program. “I’m still going to be a 3-technique; still a penetrate, get-up-field type of guy. I got to come here during the offseason and got to sit down and talk with him. I like his game plan and how he’s going to use us, and the position he’s going to put us in to have success.”

    Since landing in the NFL in 1976, Phillips has been part of 20 top-10 defenses and has coached 30 Pro Bowlers, five of whom are in the Hall of Fame. And in each of his past six stops as a defensive coordinator, the 69-year-old has overseen drastic improvement. When he took over the Broncos the first time, they went from 27th to fourth in DVOA — defense-adjusted value over average, a measure of a team’s efficiency — in one season. The Bills went from 19th to 10th; the Falcons 26th to 12th; the Chargers 30th to 13th; the Texans 31st to sixth; the Broncos, a second time, fourth to first.

    “The guy is a legend coach,” Alec Ogletree said. “For me, as a young linebacker, to be under a guy like him is definitely going to help me out a lot.”

    Despite switching from Gregg Williams’ 4-3 to Phillips’ 3-4, most of the Rams’ defensive responsibilities are expected to remain the same. Phillips’ defense will still feature a one-gap penetrating front. Donald will continue to line up on the outside shoulder of the left guard as a 3-technique. And it’ll still be Robert Quinn lining up next to him. The 3-4 set consists of three down linemen and four linebackers, so Quinn will technically be a weakside linebacker and will no longer operate out of a three-point stance.

    “But he’s a rush player,” Rams coach Sean McVay said, using retired former Broncos outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware as an example.

    “From my understanding, what we’re going to ask him to do is going to be pretty much the same — do you and do your ‘Bernie,'” Ogletree said, referencing Quinn’s “Bernie Lean” sack dance. “It’ll be good.”

    For 3-4 sets, the Rams still need to identify a third defensive lineman who will get the majority of the snaps as a 5-technique on the edge, a choice that will probably come down to Dominique Easley, Ethan Westbrooks and the recently signed Tyrunn Walker. But in substitution packages, which now are on the field the majority of the time, it’ll be Quinn and outside linebacker Connor Barwin acting as defensive ends, with Donald and Michael Brockers — still a 1-technique playing between the center and guard — on the interior.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Phillips ultimately uses his two inside linebackers, however. Ogletree and Mark Barron are both athletic, converted safeties who don’t necessarily fit the prototypical mold of a big-bodied, two-down inside linebacker who can plug the run and play the Mike spot. But Ogletree transitioned to the Mike as the middle linebacker in Williams’ 4-3 scheme last season and performed well enough.

    Regardless, Ogletree believes Phillips’ defense is “definitely going to open up a lot of guys on the front end to have one-on-one pass rush.”

    The Rams’ offense has been a disaster, but they have premier talent on defense, even if a lot of their key players are now less than a year away from free agency. Despite finishing 4-12 and suffering a string of blowouts late in the season, the Rams were still 15th in defensive DVOA in 2016. In 2015, they ranked seventh.

    The 3-4 should still highlight their best players’ strengths, particularly the front seven.

    “It’s a 3-4, but it’s still a nose tackle, it’s still a 3-technique and things like that,” Donald said. “It’s called a 3-4 because I guess the guys on the side are standing, but it’s the same for us. We’re still doing what we’re doing: penetrating, getting up field and trying to make plays in the backfield.”

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    Donald, Ogletree Ready to Lead Defensive Transition to 3-4

    By Myles Simmons

    http://www.therams.com/news-and-events/article-1/Donald-Ogletree-Ready-to-Lead-Defensive-Transition-to-3-4/fe1dd358-4f3d-47c6-9df3-fdee5c2de6fe

    When it comes to the Rams’ new staff and schemes, most of the attention has gone to the offense head coach Sean McVay will implement. But there are changes coming to the defense as well, with coordinator Wade Phillips transitioning the unit to a 3-4 base set.

    While having three down linemen and four linebackers in the club’s front seven will be an adjustment, McVay has said the club will remain a one-gap, aggressive, penetrating defense — which is largely what it was under former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. But in a 4-3, the offense knows the four down linemen will pass rush. As Phillips has explained, the difference with his 3-4 is that from play-to-play, offenses don’t know where the fourth pass rusher is coming from.

    “It’s a 3-4, but it’s still a nose tackle, it’s still a three technique, and things like that,” defensive tackle Aaron Donaldsaid Monday. “It’s called a 3-4 because, I guess the guys on the side” — outside linebackers — “are standing. But like I said, it’s the same for us. We’re still doing what we’re doing, penetrating, getting up field, and trying to make plays in the backfield.”

    When it comes to implementing the scheme, Donald and middle linebacker Alec Ogletree will likely be at the forefront, as last year’s defensive captains. That goes especially for Ogletree as the unit’s signal-caller at middle linebacker.

    “I feel a great deal of responsibility,” Ogletree said. “In my first year starting at middle linebacker, that’s what I did — I took pride in getting ahead of the curve and trying to learn as much as I can before the meetings actually took place. I tried to do that this offseason as well, to learn a couple of things here and there before the first day we get here.”

    Ogletree also noted how excited he is to get familiar with the scheme, which should give him and fellow linebacker Mark Barron plenty of opportunities to make plays.

    “I don’t know a ton about this defense, but I’ve actually played a little bit in college. I guess with Gregg Williams last year, we kind of would interchange as far as 3-4 and 4-3,” Ogletree said. “With this defense, it’s definitely going to open up a lot of guys on the front end to have one-on-one pass rush [and have] me and the other linebacker, Mark, to be in coverage and help rush also.”

    Donald also played a bit of 3-4 in college his sophomore year, describing the schemes from then and now as comparable.

    “It was a 3-4, but really a 4-3,” Donald said. “I played a little bit of end. I moved around a lot, so I’m used to it.”

    The defensive tackle will still be a three-technique in the base set — a position where he’s become arguably the best in the game.

    “Same thing, [I’m] still going to be a three technique, and still penetrate, get up field type of guy,” Donald said. “I got to come here during the offseason and go to sit down and talk with [Phillips]. I like his game plan and how he’s going to use us, and the position he’s going to put us in to have success, and try to make plays, and try to win games.”

    Could Donald move around on the line like he did in college?

    “We’re going to see. I’m comfortable wherever he puts me,” Donald said. “Like I always say, rushing the passer – it doesn’t matter if it’s outside, inside, nose tackle, I can do it. I did it before, so I’m just comfortable wherever he puts me.”

    Either way, having the chance to play under a legendary coach like Phillips is exciting for the defense as a whole.

    “He’s coached a lot of big time players, and he’s one of the best to do it,” Donald said. “Anytime you go from one great defensive coordinator in Gregg, and then go to another one, it just makes me a better football player.”

    in reply to: Peyton to join Rams front office? #67433
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    The difference is I believed when he was hired that Elway was qualified for that role.

    Manning? Nothing about him tells me HE is.

    .

    ===================

    He has a high forehead.

    w
    v

    True, like Beethoven.

    And Hannibal Lechter.

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67428
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    Russia’s not Leaving: Syria is about old-Fashioned Sphere of Influence, not Oil

    Juan Cole

    https://www.juancole.com/2017/04/russias-fashioned-influence.html

    Russia is not going to yield its sphere of influence in Syria to Donald Trump or anyone else. Russia has all but won the Syrian War as we speak. There is no longer any feasible pathway for the rebels to take the capital of Damascus. The non-ISIL groups have lost all major urban areas except for Ghouta near Damascus. They are bottled up there and in rural northern Idlib province, and likely the regime will overwhelm them in both places over the next year, with Russian air support. ISIL itself is on the verge of losing everything in Iraq and of being rolled up, over the next year or two, in Eastern Syria.
    BBC Monitoring translated from Interfax for April 10,

    “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov . . . said . . . “The American side has thus demonstrated its complete unwillingness to cooperate on Syria in any form or take account of each others’ interests and concerns. . . The return to pseudo-attempts to settle [the Syrian conflict] in the spirit of reciting ‘Assad must go’ mantras cannot bring anyone closer to political settlement in Syria,” he said. Peskov was commenting on remarks by French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, who earlier called on Russia to distance itself from Assad.”
    Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in Russian 1015 gmt 10 Apr 17

    I think we should take Moscow seriously on this.
    What can be said is that there are four major local forces in Syria: 1) the western urban regime stretching from Damascus to Latakia and Aleppo; 2) the fundamentalist rebels, whether moderate Muslim Brotherhood or Salafi Jihadis such as the Freemen of Syria or the Syrian Conquest Front; 3) The YPG leftist Kurds in the northeast and 4) ISIL.

    The West and Northwest are a Russian sphere of influence, and the Bashar al-Assad regime and the Russians have, as I said, all but defeated the fundamentalist rebels there. (There are non-fundamentalist rebels, especially in Ghouta, but they frankly have never amounted to anything on the battlefield). The regime’s occasional use of poison gas is intended as a force multiplier, since at a low 50,000 or so men under arms they can barely control the country, much less take back big swathes of territory, even with intensive Russian air support. The other force multiplier is total war tactics such as starving out civilian populations among whom guerrilla groups hide out, or deliberately hitting hospitals and other essential service-providers in rebel areas. While the regime may become more cautious about the use of gas, it may simply double down on indiscriminate bombing.
    A caution: on the map above, the reddish areas under regime control look geographically small. They actually contain about 75 percent of the population.
    The east is an American sphere of influence, where the US is backing leftist Kurds to take on ISIL.
    There is also a small strip of land north of Aleppo that is a Turkish sphere of influence, where fundamentalist rebels are still operating, but it doesn’t amount to much and Turkey backed off challenging either Russia or the US-Kurdish alliance in any frontal way.
    The Syrian conflict is a challenge to economic theories of imperialism, whether that of J. A. Hobson or that of Vladimir Lenin. It is not about markets. It is not about monopoly capital. It is not about oil or hydrocarbon resources. It is not about pipelines. Other Middle East conflicts have taken place that could be explained that way. But today’s Syria isn’t such a case.
    There simply is not much money to be made in Syria. Before the war it had a small population of 22 million. Its gross domestic product of $77 bn is less than that of the island of Puerto Rico and less than half that of Peru, one of the poorer countries in the Western Hemisphere.
    Syria was pumping about 400,000 barrels a day of petroleum, which is next to nothing. One fracked field in North Dakota does that. Saudi Arabia does 10 mn b/d and Iraq does 3. Nor is the conflict about pipelines. Nowadays both oil and liquefied natural gas can be inexpensively exported by supertanker and while a pipeline might be nice it wouldn’t be worth fighting a war over.
    Syria is important to Russia because
    1. It is near to Russia and Chechen fundamentalist rebels are operating there in alliance with al-Qaeda and with Daesh (ISIS, ISIL). It is unacceptable to Russia for the fundamentalist rebels to win and sweep into Damascus, since this development would potentially destabilize the Russian Caucasus.
    2. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, is a neo-nationalist who feels as though Russia got a raw deal from the US and NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia was reduced to a weak joke, and lost the spheres of influence that characterize a Great Power. It has lost even nearby assets such as the Ukraine. It lost Libya. Syria was a place where Putin could show the flag and bring home some victories.
    Syria on the other hand is not important to the US. Syria’s alliance with Iran makes it inconvenient for both of the major US allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel. But the Israeli security establishment is divided about whether it is better to leave al-Assad in power or to welcome the Sunni fundamentalists into Damascus in order to weaken the Shiite Hizbullah in Lebanon. After all, an al-Qaeda state next door would be much worse than a little isolated militia like Hizbullah. Saudi Arabia has no such reservations, but its proxies in Syria have mostly been defeated and it can’t do anything more there except play spoiler and encourage what will amount, after the war is over, to mere terrorism. Aside from the Iran consideration, the US has no stake in Syria except to deprive Daesh/ ISIL of a base there from which to attack Europe. But the US cannot defeat ISIL without de facto strengthening the al-Assad regime.
    All this is why Russia will remain in Syria and will have most of it as its sphere of influence. Russia has clear motivations and clear goals there, a strong ally with most of the population under its control, and a practical plan for accomplishing them, which has worked well if sanguinarily so far.
    In contrast, the US has no obvious motivation to be in Syria except fighting Daesh. Its policies are therefore muddled. It is damaging its relationship with a big important country, Turkey (pop. 78 mn., GDP $800 bn), by its alliance with the small PYD Syrian Kurdish population of some 2 million, for the instrumental purpose of rolling up Daesh. Maybe the military-industrial complex in the US would like a war just to make some money, and maybe the Neoconservatives would like a war to contain Iran. But neither of them is likely to be able to dictate to Trump, who likely hasn’t given up on better relations with Putin and doesn’t need either of those groups to be reelected.
    My guess is that the Tomahawk strikes were impulsive and a one-off. The Russian-dominated status quo is not significantly affected, and there isn’t an early prospect of it so being.

    in reply to: the Donald tweets #67427
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    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump · Apr 12
    “If this is a consular ship, where is the Ambassador?”
    26,325 replies . 28,037 retweets 125,125 likes

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67426
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    Cole said: “The use of chemical weapons by the Syrian Army in Idlib is an atrocity..”

    But that has not been proven. Where is the clear and convincing evidence that the Syrian Army used chemical weapons?

    The Russians and Assad say they didnt do it. The US says Assad did it. Where’s the proof?

    w
    v

    No, it;s the Russians that deny it. “Has not been proven” is the Russian line. I actually published within all that a local independent middle eastern news source that accepts the line that it was syria. I’ve been insisting on this point: take views from those who are echoing the Russians on this, and it’s no help…it actually just muddies things.

    Cole is without equal the leading american commentator on the region. I would take his view over anyone who is just parroting the Russians—any day.

    Cole was a godsend of neutral deep commentary and reporting when I was looking at sources on the run up to the iraq war.

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    Rams players pick up on the new vibe of coach Sean McVay

    Gary Klein

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/rams/la-sp-rams-20170410-story.html

    Quarterback Jared Goff described it as “freshness.”

    Linebacker Alec Ogletree spoke of “a whole different culture,” while running back Todd Gurley honed in on new coach Sean McVay’s energy and “swagger.”

    Those were initial player impressions Monday after the Rams met as a team for the first time since McVay, 31, became the youngest coach in modern NFL history.

    As the Rams began their offseason program, McVay, Goff and others at the team’s Cal Lutheran facility sported blue T-shirts emblazoned with a blue and white-horned Rams logo on the front and “WE not ME” written on the back.

    The start of the program, which runs through mid-June, was “a long time coming,” McVay said.

    “There was full attention, guys were locked in, they were engaged, they were ready to go,” he said of the team meeting, adding, “It was definitely, exactly the way that we wanted to come off as a coaching staff.”

    It will take more than slogans, T-shirts and attentiveness in meetings to turn around a franchise that has not made the playoffs since 2004.

    But after last season’s dismal 4-12 finish, the Rams are embracing the start of the post-Jeff Fisher era.

    McVay might be young, Ogletree said, but the coach who served as the Washington Redskins’ offensive coordinator the last three seasons looked and sounded experienced.

    “He definitely seems like a guy that’s been around awhile,” said Ogletree, 25. “You can gravitate toward a guy like that because he’s young, energetic, and you can definitely tell he has a lot of wisdom about him.”

    McVay and his staff face a major challenge, especially on offense.

    The Rams have ranked last in the NFL in each of the last two seasons. On the positive side, there is nowhere to go but up.

    How much the Rams improve will depend in large part on the development of Goff, the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft.

    McVay has said that he, offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson have worked to make sure they will provide Goff with a consistent message.

    Goff, 22, said he was ready to get started. The Rams, he intimated, are not far from turning around their fortunes.

    “I think we’re a lot closer to where we want to be than people may think,” he said.

    Goff, winless last season in seven starts, worked this offseason in Newport Beach with quarterback trainers Tom House and Justin Dedeaux. The duo has tutored Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and other NFL passers.

    Goff did not identify any particular mechanical adjustments that were made but said he was enlightened.

    “Now you know when you do make a bad throw … you know why,” he said. “It’s not just, ‘Oh, that was a bad one,’ and move on. You know why and how to fix it.”

    Goff will attempt to assert himself on a team that has gone through numerous personnel changes.

    Nine players who played prominent roles last season — quarterback Case Keenum, receivers Kenny Britt and Brian Quick, running back Benny Cunningham, tight end Lance Kendricks, center Tim Barnes, defensive ends William Hayes and Eugene Sims and safety T.J. McDonald — were either traded, released or allowed to pursue free-agent opportunities.

    The Rams added eight players who are expected to contribute immediately: receiver Robert Woods, offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth, center John Sullivan, running back Lance Dunbar, defensive lineman Tyrunn Walker, linebacker Connor Barwin and cornerbacks Kayvon Webster and Nickell Robey-Coleman.

    With a year of experience, Goff said he was now comfortable in everything from knowing teammates to knowing his way around the facility.

    “Comfortability,” he said, “you can’t overstate it. It’s really important, as for the quarterback position, and leadership overall.”

    Notes

    The Rams’ exhibition schedule includes home games against the Dallas Cowboys and the Chargers and road games against the Oakland Raiders and Green Bay Packers. The Aug. 26 game against the Chargers at the Coliseum will kick off at 5 p.m. and be televised nationally by CBS. Dates for the other games are to be determined. The Rams are playing the Cowboys in a preseason opener for the second year in a row. They also will play the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium during the regular season. In Week 2 of the preseason, the Rams will visit the Raiders, who last month received permission from the NFL to move to Las Vegas in a few seasons. The Chargers, who are playing home games at the StubHub Center until they will move into Stan Kroenke’s new Inglewood stadium in 2019, will visit the Coliseum in Week 3. Last year, the Rams traveled to Minnesota’s new stadium for their final preseason game. This year, they travel to Green Bay’s legendary Lambeau Field. … Defensive lineman Ethan Westbrooks signed a restricted free-agent tender. The Rams waived receiver Stedman Bailey and retained exclusive rights to defensive linemen Matt Longacre and Louis Trinca-Pasat.

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67421
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    In 3 months, Trump has Charged into 4 Mideast Wars, to no Avail

    Juan Cole

    https://www.juancole.com/2017/04/months-charged-mideast.html

    In his less than three months in office, Donald Trump has escalated four wars, and all of his escalations have been failures.
    To be fair, Trump inherited all 4 wars from Barack Obama– Afghanistan, Iraq v. ISIL, Leftist Kurds v ISIL in Syria, and targeting support and tactical advice to Saudi Arabia in Yemen.
    Trump campaigned on reducing such foreign entanglements and focusing on the US and its needs. But in office he has declined to rethink any of these commitments and indeed has escalated in each theater.
    Trump’s first escalation was in Yemen, in late January. He sent in a team of navy Seals to attack an alleged al-Qaeda compound. But the man he was targeting had switched sides and was supporting the Yemeni government. The raid produced no useful intelligence and the target disappeared. A navy Seal was killed along with some 30 civilians, including children. The raid did not further the Saudi war aim of defeating the Houthi militia– it was aimed at al-Qaeda in Yemen, which has taken advantage of the Saudi intervention to grab territory.
    In Iraq in late March, once Trump came in, the restrictive rules of operation for the military insisted on by Obama were loosened by the US miltitary. A bombing by a US aircraft caused the collapse of a civilian apartment complex, killing at least 200 innocent civilians.
    In Syria’s Northeastern Front, Trump doubled the number of US special ops troops embeded with the leftist Kurdish militia, the YPG. These forces are intended to attack ISIL in its Syrian capital, Raqqa, but despite promises by Trump, no such concerted new campaign has begun. Then when it appeared last week that the Syrian regime used poison gas in its struggle against the al-Qaeda affiliate and its allies in the Northwestern Front at Idlib, Trump dropped 59 Tomahawk missiles on a small airbase. No significant damage was done and Syria was flying missions again the next day.
    On Thursday, Trump hit with an 1100 ton bomb some caves in Nangarhar, Afghanistan, said to be being used by Taliban rebels who had joined ISIL. The US has lost 1/3 of Afghanistan to fundamentalist rebels, mostly Taliban, in a 16-year war that is going worse now than than at any time since spring, 2002. There is no prospect of defeating guerrillas with air power, no matter how massive. The US carpet-bombed Vietnam and still lost. The desperation of the Trump administration is demonstrated by the use of old Saddam Hussein hyperbole, calling the missile ‘The Mother of all Bombs.’ Trump is actually translating his propaganda directly from Dictator Arabic! Saddam had called the Gulf War ‘the Mother of all Battles’ (Umm al-Ma’arik), though this was a literal press translation. The phrase means the ‘essence of all battles.’ Saddam’s hyperbole did not serve him well.
    What all four Trump interventions in his ongoing US wars in the Middle East have in common is that they were splashy, produced headlines for a day, and altered the course of the conflict not a jot or a tittle.
    Trump is gradually inducting his Four Wars into his Reality-Show universe, where everything is done for ratings and just for show.

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67420
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    Trump intervenes in the Great Mideast Civil War in Syria

    Juan Cole

    https://www.juancole.com/2017/04/trump-intervenes-mideast.html

    The Syrian Civil War has a domestic, a regional and an international dimension. Domestically, it has become a fight between some largely rural Sunni Arabs (though some are urban as in Ghouta), mostly now of a fundamentalist cast, on the one hand; and on the other the Baath regime of Bashar al-Assad and those groups that support him (most Allawis and Christians, some secular Sunni Arabs) or are neutral toward him (Kurds, Druze).
    Regionally, Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and Russia have lined up behind the al-Assad regime, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council support the mostly fundamentalist Sunni Arab rebels. It is hard to tell exactly where the Israeli government of Binyamin Netanyahu stands. It appears to be mainly worried about increased capacity coming off the conflict for the Lebanese Hizbullah Shiite militia, and not to care a great deal which force rules Damascus.
    It is therefore no surprise that Saudi Arabia and Turkey were among the first governments to praise President Trump’s Tomahawk missile strike on the small Khayrat air force base in Homs province.
    In fact, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said in an interview on Turkey’s Channel 7 before the missile strikes that he appreciated Trump’s statement that it is impossible to turn a blind eye to the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons, but that he needs to see actions, not just words. He said that if Trump swung into action, “the Turkish people are ready to fulfill their responsibility.”
    Erdogan also said that he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin after the gas attack, and that Putin questioned whether Bashar al-Assad was really responsible. Erdogan said that if Putin still did not understand the situation after two days, “that pains us.” Russian media has been insisting that the gas was released at Khan Shikhoun when the Syrian Arab Air Force inadvertently struck an al-Qaeda sarin production workshop and released it. But The Guardian’s on-the-scene correspondent looked into the warehouse fingered by Russia and found nothing inside it.
    Saudi Arabia likewise expressed its support for Trump’s cruise missile strike.
    Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been more or less defeated in Syria, with their clients among the fundamentalists, such as the Freemen of Syria (Ahrar al-Sham), having been defeated by the Syrian Arab Army, Hizbullah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and Russia air power. They therefore hope that Trump’s Tomahawk strike might change the situation on the ground. If the regime is demoralized and the fundamentalist rebels take heart, Turkey and Saudi Arabia hope, it is possible that al-Assad could yet be overthrown. Both see al-Assad as a puppet of Iran and as responsible for the mass murder of Sunni Arabs in Syria.
    In contrast, the countries supporting al-Assad, some of whom hope for good relations with Trump, largely held their tongues. It may be that even they could not defend a sarin gas attack. It may be that they just don’t want to speak out against Trump. Egypt’s President Abdulfattah al-Sisi is likely in this column.
    But the likelihood is that Trump’s cruise missile attack was a one-off action rather than the beginning of a full-scale campaign, and that while it may slightly demoralize the Syrian regime, it won’t significantly alter the forces on the field.
    As for Iran, it strongly condemned Trump’s attack on the air base, saying that it will aid terrorism in Syria and will make the difficult Syrian situation even more complicated.

    in reply to: Juan Cole: articles on Syria #67419
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    Washington’s Supreme Hypocrisy on Chemical Weapons and Civilian Deaths

    Juan Cole

    https://www.juancole.com/2017/04/washingtons-hypocrisy-chemical.html

    The use of chemical weapons by the Syrian Army in Idlib is an atrocity and the pictures of dead children tug at the heart. But the outrage of American politicians inside the beltway about it draws on the myths of American exceptionalism and Alzheimer’s of the political memory. It is also very suspicious in that the loudest voices of sympathy are the ones closest to the US military industrial complex, which has been regretting the missed opportunity of a Syria War.
    If Trump and his circle are so tenderhearted, why did they propose, on taking office, permanently banning Syrian refugees from the United States? If it weren’t for some feisty Federal court judges, the Syrian refugee ban would be in effect. How sympathetic can you be if you don’t even want to give children asylum from these heinous atrocities?
    Then, why is how children are killed in war more important than that they are killed? The most conservative estimate for deaths in the Syrian Civil War is some 300,000, and you figure that although many of those are fighting men, some large proportion (33%?) are innocent noncombatants, including tens of thousands of children. Rebel groups have also killed tens of thousands of people, including innocent civilians, though the regime has been more deadly because better-armed. Why was it all right for the regime to use indiscriminate bombing and barrel bombs on civilian neighborhoods, but if they kill some 80 people with gas all of a sudden the Beltway Bandits want to Send in Trump?
    And by the way, all the time the US was occupying Iraq, 2003-2011, it was intensively bombing civilian neighborhoods to get at Iraqi militias. It certainly killed thousands of innocent civilians this way, including children. I can remember just one Saturday afternoon in 2004, the US bombed Amara over and over again to get at the Shiite Mahdi Army militia. The Agence France Presse had a stringer on the ground who reported 84 deaths. They weren’t all combatants. The US media refused to run the AFP report.
    All this isn’t new. The US has long had a doctrine that it is all right to inflict large civilian casualties with the aim of limited troop casualties. The United States used nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, after which there were thousands and thousands of dead children. Some were carbonized so quickly that nothing was left of them but shadows on the wall. Little children. The US security elite has never apologized for this war crime and continues to menace other nations with this kind of indiscriminate and unspeakable violence every time it announces that “all options are on the table.”
    As for chemical weapons, the US has studiedly avoided signing unreservedly the 1925 Geneva Protocol banning chemical weapons use. (It says it will use chem if others do, which means it could use chem in Syria now).
    The Reagan administration shamefully ran interference for six years as Saddam Hussein of Iraq systematically deployed chemical weapons against Iranian troops at the front. Everyone knew this was going on. After then Searle CEO Donald Rumsfeld went to Baghdad in 1983 and famously shook Saddam’s hand, George Schultz’s State Department complained about Saddam’s chem, provoking angry puzzlement in Baghdad. Did Reagan want a new ally against Khomeini’s Iran, or not? Reagan had State back down. And, indeed, when Iran appealed to the United Nations Security Council to condemn what Iraq was doing, the Reagan administration maneuvered at the UN to make sure that Iran’s case was not taken up.
    I saw an Iranian survivor interviewed. He said he wished he had been killed instead. His lungs had been permanently scarred by mustard gas, and every breath he took was pure torture. Imagine how many breaths a person draws every day.
    Emboldened by Reagan’s running cover for him at the UN, Saddam went on to have his relative “Chemical Ali” al-Tikriti use sarin gas on the Kurdish town of Halabja. Again, lots of little children were among the thousands dead. Some were walking to school and their little hands were still grasping lunch pails. George H. W. Bush was vice president and must have been in the loop. His son, W., later invaded Iraq and gave as one of his pretexts that Saddam had used ‘weapons of mass destruction’ on ‘his own people.’
    Iraq used chemical weapons for the same reason that the Syrian army does. They are deployed to level the playing field in the face of superior manpower on the other side. Saddam Hussein had a country of 16 million and invaded a country of some 40 million. US military doctrine of the time was you should only invade at a ratio of 3 to 1. So Saddam would have needed a country of 120 million to invade Iran. Needless to say, he lost the war very badly after an initial lightning invasion, since Iran could always over time raise a much bigger army than Saddam could. Hence the use of mustard gas and sarin gas on Iranian troops at the front.
    Some Syrian military units have a chem team in case they face being overwhelmed by a more numerous enemy. The Syrian army was 300,000 before the war. It is at most 50,000 now. That number is not sufficient to control the whole country, though with the help of the Lebanese Hizbullah and Iraqi militias and some Afghans dragooned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, plus vigorous Russian air support, they have been able to fight off the rebels and to take most urban areas. The small number of troops means that when they fight in a rebel-held territory like Idlib Province, they are tempted to deploy chemical weapons to offset their small numbers.
    But it is indiscriminate fire and reckless disregard for innocent life that is the war crime here, and indeed a repeated pattern of war crimes is considered a crime against humanity.
    By the way, Russian bombing has often been indiscriminate, but somehow Moscow has skated on war crimes accusations growing out of its heavy-handed role in Syria.
    As for those decrying Obama inaction they need to, like, read the news sometime. For the past several years the US has intervened in Syria in two ways. President Obama used the Saudis to deliver money and weaponry to some 40 “vetted” groups supported by the Central Intelligence Agency, which is certified as having no ties to al-Qaeda or international extremism. Except that several of these groups have in fact formed battlefield alliances with al-Qaeda in Syria (was Jabhat al-Nusra, now Jabhat Fateh Sham or the Syrian Conquest Front).
    Why in the world the US government should have backed groups like the Saudi favorite Army of Islam, which wanted to oppress or kill non-Sunnis baffles me. The rebel groups committed their own massacres of civilians.
    The other US intervention has been thousands of bombing raids against Daesh (ISIS, ISIL) in Raqqa and Deir al-Zor in Syria’s far east.
    Neither of these interventions has been effective to date, and both certainly have raised the death toll in the Civil War, including the civilian death toll.
    Trump can’t stop Syria from using poison gas by bombing Damascus. Since he’s such a good buddy of Russian president Vladimir Putin, maybe he could pressure Putin to have Bashar al-Assad cut it out.
    But that somehow the Syria situation can be made better if only Donald J. Trump would stick his fingers into it is a wildly implausible premise.

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    link: http://aranews.net/2017/04/chemical-attack-kills-dozens-northern-syria/

    Chemical attack kills dozens in northern Syria

    April 4, 2017 Syria
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    Syrian boy injured during a suspected regime-led chemical attack being moved to a hospital in Idlib. Activists

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    Tags
    Assad regimeBashar al-Assadchemical agentschemical attackchemical weaponsIdlibSNCSyriaSyrian oppositionSyrian regimevictims
    At least 58 people, including 11 children, died in a suspected gas attack in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, local sources reported on Tuesday.

    According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), people choked or fainted after the attack, while some were seen foaming at the mouth.

    The SOHR said it had received the reports from medics on the ground in the town of Khan Sheikhoun.

    Hours later, a small field hospital in the region was struck and destroyed, according to a civil defence worker in the area.

    The Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the main opposition group, said planes from President Bashar al Assad’s military carried out the airstrikes.

    It was not immediately clear if the deaths had been caused by the chemical weapons or injuries sustained in the airstrikes.

    Videos purporting to show the aftermath circulated on social media.

    One showed the bodies of several young children being covered with a blanket, while another showed men lifting a body into the back of a truck.

    In a number of videos, medics could be seen helping people who appeared to have breathing difficulties.

    Rescue workers were pictured hosing down children.

    More than 60 people were reportedly injured in the airstrikes.

    “At 18 cases had been taken to a hospital in Sarmin town. Because of the number of wounded, they have been distributed around in rural Idlib,” local media activist Mohammed Hassoun said.

    “They were unconscious, they had seizures and when oxygen was administered, they bled from the nose and mouth.”

    Russia’s defence ministry said it had not carried out any airstrikes in the area.

    The Syrian government did not immediately comment on the allegations, but last week said claims the government was using chemical weapons were “devoid of truth”.

    The SNC called for an emergency session of the UN Security Council, blaming the airstrikes on the “regime of the criminal Bashar”.

    It urged the UN to “open an immediate investigation and take the necessary measures to ensure the officials, perpetrators and supporters are held accountable”.

    “Failure to do so will be understood as a message of blessing to the regime for its actions,” it added.

    France later also said that it wanted an emergency Security Council meeting.

    “The perpetrators must be held accountable. We need to address this issue at the Security Council, as soon as possible,” Alexis Lamek, Deputy Permanent Representative of France to the UN, said.

    British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said: “This bears all the hallmarks of an attack by the regime, which has repeatedly used chemical weapons.”

    “If this is shown to be the work of the regime, it is further evidence of the atrocities perpetrated against the Syrian people over six years of appalling conflict,” Johnson said.

    Idlib province is almost entirely controlled by the Syrian opposition and is home to 900,000 people displaced from other areas by the 6-year-old war.

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