From Rodrigue, https://theathletic.com/4998815/2023/10/26/rams-trade-deadline-strategy/?source=emp_shared_article

Kicker economics

Yet again, the Rams are firing up the kicker carousel.

Previous kicker Brett Maher missed two field goals and an extra point in Sunday’s seven-point loss, and was cut Tuesday morning. The Rams signed second-year kicker Lucas Havrisik off the Browns practice squad Tuesday. Havrisik has familiarity with assistant special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer from their time at the University of Arizona, as well as with former veteran Rams kicker Matt Gay, who put in a good word. They’ll also continue to work out kickers and potentially sign someone to the practice squad, McVay said. The Rams also had two undrafted free-agent kickers competing for the spot pre-Maher, but neither panned out.

Maher missed field goal tries of 53 and 51 yards in the loss to the Steelers. McVay praised Maher for handling his release with class.

“There were some tough situations that I put him in, that doesn’t (get) lost on me,” McVay said. “It wasn’t like, easy spots that he was put in, with some of these 50-yarders.”

A study by Ben Baldwin, who builds, studies and shares NFL analytics models, found that McVay and the Rams have lost the fourth-highest amount of total win probability per game this season, by kicking or punting in “go” (what the model perceives as necessary conversion attempts on fourth down) scenarios. The results his model finds are not dependent on whether a field goal is made or missed, but on the decision itself:

Pulled this from @benbbaldwin, found it interesting. People fairly raised eyebrows at the “still evaluating” quote in kicker situation – needs to make his kicks, yeah. But to me that also means evaluating situations in which kicker is being asked to kick. (Make/miss not factored) pic.twitter.com/P7bZxdtAKC

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) October 24, 2023

Sunday, the Rams faced three “medium go” scenarios, which resulted in a missed field goal (first quarter) and two punts (fourth quarter).

The Rams actually have an excellent overall fourth-down conversion rate of 75 percent. This ranks No. 2 in the NFL. However, they have only gone for it on fourth down eight times (18th in the league), and have faced fourth down with less than five yards to gain 25 times (fifth-most). The Rams have a decision EPA of -0.05 on fourth-down plays, which is third-worst in the NFL (this statistic also ignores the result of the play itself such as whether or not a field goal is made).

Further, according to TruMedia, no team has opted to kick field goals on a higher percentage of its fourth-down plays, with 3 yards or fewer to go and inside the opponent’s 45-yard line, than the Rams since McVay’s first season in 2017 (58.3 percent). The NFL average over that span is 42.7 percent.

Based on the above, the kicking position is actually quite important to the Rams from a coaching perspective (and McVay said as much in his Wednesday news conference).

Yet from a roster-building perspective (where, to be clear, McVay also has input), it is not: The Rams cited limited finances as the reason to not extend Gay, who now draws the second-highest annual paycheck among NFL kickers from the Indianapolis Colts ($5.625 million). This was also a factor in moving on from Greg Zuerlein in 2020, who now makes the 16th-most per year ($2.6 million; still more than the Rams have been looking to pay).

Evaluating kickers is a difficult science to master. Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, who has been through a kicking carousel or two himself (including with Maher), loaned some insight when speaking with Los Angeles beat writers Wednesday morning about the process: “I think, in some ways, kicking and punting and quarterbacks throwing — I think those are clearly three positions from a skill development, the fine motor skill that is involved in throwing a football, kicking a football and punting a football — you really have to see them live. To me, that’s an extremely difficult evaluation to make on film. As we know, that’s not always the case from an availability standpoint.

“The technique, the fine motor skill for how they play and what they do is very high. I would say an in-person evaluation is very important in evaluating kickers, from their skill and their mechanics. Hearing and feeling the ball come off their foot, all of those things. Then there’s the other research that you have to use resources (on), and that’s the emotional dynamic of how these guys are put together. It is a position that is difficult to evaluate.”

To me, it’s simple math for the Rams: You don’t want to pay an elite kicker? Fine. Then make more aggressive (within reason) decisions on the fourth downs that would otherwise lead to 50-yards-plus kicks for non-elite kickers who aren’t costing you any money. Do you want to be a “kick-it guy” in “go” situations in those parts of the field? OK, then you probably have to pay an elite kicker.

“That’s an exact conversation that I’ve had with myself, and with other members of the staff as we move forward,” McVay said of the contrast between the caliber of kicker the Rams are willing to bring in, and his in-game decision-making.

You just can’t kick your cake, and eat it too.

The Rams are losing significant win probability and EPA solely on fourth down decisions.

Sean McVay’s decisions in “go” situations assert an elite kicker is important. The front office (where he has input) cannot, will not, pay one.

Someone has to blink: https://t.co/TbJZ5NbqZb

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) October 26, 2023

Intercepting a toss is as glorious as I imagined https://t.co/HEbilqOXKf

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 25, 2023