- This topic has 15 replies, 3 voices, and was last updated 2 weeks, 3 days ago by
.
-
AI Overview: An “earned first play action” is an advanced football metric that tracks when an offense runs a play-action pass on a 1st-and-10 situation, specifically when that down was newly earned by a previous successful play (rather than occurring at the very beginning of a drive).
Earned 1st Down refers to a 1st-and-10 situation that the offense creates themselves during a drive (e.g., picking up a first down to extend the possession), as opposed to starting a new drive after a kickoff or a turnover.
The Earned First Play-Action Rate calculates how often a play-caller dials up a play-fake on these specific downs. It is widely used in analytics to measure an offense’s aggressiveness and their willingness to attack on standard passing downs.
***
Ryan Paganetti@RyanPaganetti
The McVay offense has a lot of fingerprints. This one keeps showing up in the data: earned first play action.McVay has finished top two in earned first play action rate in 6 different seasons as a play caller.
In 2025, the Rams generated 41.8 EPA on those plays including playoffs, by far the most by any team over the last four seasons. No other team has even reached 30 EPA.
data via @FantasyPtsData
Here’s where 2026 play callers rank in earned first play action usage since 2022:
from PFF, NFL quarterbacks are holding the ball longer than ever: The trends behind time to throw: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterbacks-are-holding-the-ball-longer-than-ever-the-trends-behind-time-to-throw?utm_campaign=dhtwitter&utm_content=null&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
PFF times every dropback throughout the NFL season, and we can use that data to gain insight into how quarterbacks’ tendencies change over the course of their careers. Focusing on the last four seasons in particular, it is interesting to note that no quarterback has reduced their time to throw every year since 2022.
…
[Looking at] quarterbacks who have increased the time they hold onto the ball with each passing season.
The most surprising name on the list is reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, whose time to throw has increased every year since 2022, albeit at a modest pace. Stafford still gets the ball out quicker than most NFL quarterbacks, but much of the extra time he has gained in recent years can be attributed to the improvements the Rams have made along the offensive line.
At 38 years old, Stafford obviously isn’t a scrambler. Therefore, his increased time to throw isn’t a consequence of avoiding oncoming rushers and breaking out of the pocket. Instead, Stafford has used that extra time to target receivers further downfield. There is a clear correlation between his time to throw, average depth of target and percentage of throws that travel beyond the sticks.
While the Rams’ passing attack has undoubtedly become more aggressive in part because of the emergence of Puka Nacua, Stafford has done an excellent job of keeping turnover-worthy plays and sacks to a minimum. The 2024 and 2025 seasons marked the first time in Stafford’s 17-year career that he recorded back-to-back seasons with single-digit interceptions.
Stafford isn’t the only quarterback taking more time in the pocket in recent years. A significant group of passers is taking longer than ever to get the ball out, including Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert.
…
Offensive line quality, wide receiver talent and, most importantly, play-calling all influence how long a quarterback holds the football over the course of a season, and those factors rarely remain constant. Despite coaching staffs placing a greater emphasis than ever on avoiding negative plays, quarterbacks are generally becoming more comfortable extending plays.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
