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  • in reply to: So what exactly are you people doing? #112499
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I am spending all day at school every day, trying to make the best of this situation. Mostly I am struggling with a never-ending parade of technical difficulties, and learning to do new things with tech toys.

    I have been too busy doing that to actually figure out how to change the format of various assignments, and because I teach multiple classes that are completely different, I have to do all that for each class, unlike a teacher who may have 3 sections of the same thing, so they convert their stuff once for the entire lot of kids.

    =========================
    So schools are not cancelled in Calif?

    Schools are closed here.

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    in reply to: Did you order anything from a comic book ad? #112492
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Coincidentally, I ordered a submarine from Bazooka for ten comics and a buck, or something like that.

    It was a spring loaded submarine that fired a torpedo an inch or so when I pushed a trigger. I remember being pleased. I sank many a Nazi battleship with it.

    ==========================

    Seahorses. I loved them. They dissolved.
    Thats when i became a leftist, i think.

    Also, prettymuch every gadget and program that promised
    to make me look like Charles Atlas in two weeks.

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    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112485
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    haha. well. i will say that my father in law who was a republican (i’m pretty sure he voted for w bush). he’s now a democrat. he’s for medicare for all.

    my own father and mother. both republicans who later switched over to the democrats. they are in favor of medicare for all.

    i also talked to my father in law’s friend. he’s a pediatrician. he is for medicare for all.

    they’re all pretty much centrists i would argue.

    BUT. i should also add that my parents came from korea. my father in law is from japan. the pediatrician is also from korea. both countries have a national healthcare system. so they come from a totally different perspective than most americans i would say.

    so yeah. there’s definitely a huge hill to climb.

    i will say that most young americans i talk to. are for a national healthcare system. that’s the feeling i get. meaning people under the age of 30. just the hunch i get from casual conversation.

    so maybe people don’t change… but generations do???

    ====================

    Well, i got no answers, but i do know that surveys and polls and anecdotal stuff always points to many people SAYING the want this or that — but none of that means squat if they go into the voting booth and vote for Bushes, Trumps, Bidens, Obamas, Gores, Edwards, Reagans, etc.

    People say all kinds of stuff. And then they vote for imperialist-corporatists, over, and over and over. And over. And over.

    I’m hoping at the end of all things, God explains this to me.

    This guy is funny at times, btw:

    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112482
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Well, let me know if you meet any centrists or Rightwingers who change their views.

    voters or policy makers?

    ==================

    Voters.

    People dont change their minds for the most part. Leftist Friend of mine sent me this about her Rightwing Mom:
    “My mom posted a meme on facebook. It said something to the effect of ‘Italy is refusing to treat its elderly Coronavirus patients. That’s what happens with socialized healthcare!’
    After slamming my head into the keyboard several times, I had things to say.”

    I’ve seen that kind of thing over and over and over in my life.

    Granted some people change, and change does happen, etc.
    But by and large people dont change and change does not happen 🙂

    The Dem-Centrist-SuBSystem and the Rep-Rightwing-SubSystem are very effective at selling their stories.

    There has never been a corporate-propaganda system like this before, in the history of the world. This is something modern, something new.

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    in reply to: Brockers signs w/ Ravens #112455
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I never quite knew what to think of Brockers. A ‘B’ player? B+? B-?

    The Ravens dont seem to make too many mistakes with defensive personnel.

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    in reply to: Rams & free agency … + Cooks & Gurley on trade market? #112454
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Um, there is some serious rams-shit goin on.

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    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112452
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    The warning from the nation’s largest university, with some 40,000 students, applies “especially” to students staying in nations with “poorly developed health services,” as well as countries, “for example the USA,” with a “poorly developed collective infrastructure.”

    maybe this will be the wake up call this country needs?

    =================

    Well, let me know if you meet any centrists or Rightwingers who change their views. 🙂

    This health-care system is based on Centrist and Rightwing policies. Decades of ‘that’.

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    • This reply was modified 6 years, 6 months ago by Avatar photowv.
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I thought this was pretty good.

    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112443
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    link:https://www.huffpost.com/entry/norway-students-us-collective-infrastructure_n_5e6ec485c5b6dda30fcbba2a?utm_source=main_fb&utm_campaign=hp_fb_pages&utm_medium=facebook&ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000063&fbclid=IwAR2eYr94VXwJaQQT3-ruioBzyP3zBKGJGAFv3bMN_UClnmerS9bcrKFZGCY

    Norway College Urges Students To Return From ‘Poorly Developed’ U.S. Amid Pandemic
    Students studying abroad are called home because of the spread of the coronavirus, “especially” from the U.S.

    Norway’s renowned University of Science and Technology has issued an alert urging students studying abroad to return home as a response to the coronavirus pandemic — specifically singling out the U.S.

    The warning from the nation’s largest university, with some 40,000 students, applies “especially” to students staying in nations with “poorly developed health services,” as well as countries, “for example the USA,” with a “poorly developed collective infrastructure.”

    The alert notes it can be difficult in the U.S. to “get transport to the airport if you don’t have a car.” It added, apparently referring to “poorly developed health services,” that, “The same applies if you don’t have health insurance.”

    “In line with the advice from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I, as NTNU’s Rector, strongly recommend that all NTNU students who are outside Norway return home.

    This applies especially if you are staying in a country with poorly developed health services. This also applies for countries with poorly developed collective infrastructure, for example the USA, where it can be difficult to get transport to the airport if you don’t have a car. The same applies if you don’t have health insurance.”

    The university’s alert came as Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement Saturday advising all Norwegian citizens abroad to return home.

    Norway is shutting down its airports and harbors to foreign travelers on Monday. Norwegians will be allowed to return home — though they’ll have to be quarantined for 14 days.

    In 2018 private meeting with lawmakers, President Donald Trump reportedly expressed a desire for more immigrants from Norway after complaining about people moving to the U.S. from “shithole countries,” and naming Africa and Haiti, according to one of those present. Responses from Norwegians at the time indicated they were quite happy where they were.

    Here’s how some Twitter users responded to the Norwegian university’s directive:

    in reply to: To Support Biden, Or Not To Support Biden… #112431
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Hedges on the shitshow.

    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112414
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Disinfectant Vid

    in reply to: To Support Biden, Or Not To Support Biden… #112401
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    in reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor) #112400
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    in reply to: politics & the virus #112383
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    So, has Trump blamed this on Obama yet? Has he blamed it on Communists yet?

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    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Do we have any logic-based-guesses on when the Virus is really gonna get going in the USA ? How soon before it gets rolling? Do we know?

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    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112377
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    in reply to: politics & the virus #112375
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    in reply to: new CBA voted in … what it means #112374
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I never like it when a league adds more playoff teams. I guess i should be happy the NFL only added one more team.

    I dont wanna see .500 teams in the playoffs.

    I’m not crazy about 9-7 teams getting in, either. I didnt think the Rams deserved a spot last year. I like my playoff teams to have at least 10 wins.

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    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112370
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Slate:https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/coronavirus-tsa-liquid-purell-paid-leave-rules.html

    America Is a Sham
    Policy changes in reaction to the coronavirus reveal how absurd so many of our rules are to begin with.
    by Dan Kois
    “….
    …….
    ….Each day of this public health crisis brings a new example. People thrown in jail for minor offenses? San Antonio is one of many jurisdictions to announce that, to keep jails from being crowded with sick citizens, they’ll stop doing that. Why were they doing it in the first place?

    The federal government charging interest on loans to attend college? Well, Donald Trump has instructed government agencies who administer loans to waive interest accrual for the duration of the crisis. But why on earth is our government charging its own citizens interest anyway?

    Broadband data caps and throttled internet? Those have been eliminated by AT&T and other ISPs, because of the coronavirus. But data caps and throttling were really just veiled price hikes that served no real technical purpose. Why did we put up with them?

    Police helping landlords evict tenants in times of financial trouble? Due to the coronavirus, not anymore in New York, Miami, and New Orleans. But—and you see where this is going—why do the police aid evictions when tenants are stricken with other, non-coronavirus illnesses?

    The city shutting off your water, or your power, as punishment for hardship? During this public health emergency, plenty of cities and companies have suddenly found a way to keep service turned on. “As long as COVID-19 remains a health concern,” said Detroit mayor Mike Duggan, “no Detroit resident should have concerns about whether their water service will be interrupted.” Why in the hell should any Detroit resident have concerns about their water service being interrupted, ever? Shouldn’t clean water be the absolute base level of service delivered by a city to its residents?

    Sick employees forced to take unpaid leave or work while sick if they want to keep their jobs? Walmart recently announced it would provide up to two weeks of paid leave for any employee who contracts the coronavirus. And the House just passed a bill to address the problem, though as the New York Times editorial board notes, the House’s failure to make the bill universal “is an embarrassment that endangers the health of workers, consumers and the broader American public.” But why should any sick worker fear losing their pay or their job at any time? And why are the most vulnerable to punitive sick leave practices the workers making the lowest wages?” …see link

    in reply to: Exit poll discrepancy & other voter suppression news #112357
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I wonder if the Virus will affect the actual physical act of Voting,
    come general election time? I wonder if it will keep the turnout small?

    in reply to: To Support Biden, Or Not To Support Biden… #112324
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I couldn’t get through all of that… fucking Bill Maher…

    As someone who’s VERY loud on twitter pushing the #NeverBiden and #BernieOrBust, I make it clear to every shitlib who makes the mistake of coming at me what’s up.

    And it’s all your guys’ fault asking me if my principles matched my politics all those years ago…

    Now I’m nearly a leftist… LOL

    but for real, tho… I won’t vote for any Dem again. Period. Not even AOC if she runs in 2024.

    That party needs to die in a fucking fire and the ONLY way that happens is if we stop acquiescing to this “lesser of two evils” nonsense… which it is because as we all know, it’s more accurate to say “the different of two evils”.

    If anything, Trump’s incompetence has led him to do LESS harmful shit than Obama did… no new wars and very few legislative achievements unlike Clinton who woulda worked with McConnell to give the Republicans not only everything they wanted, but cover because it happened under a Dem President.

    Nah, progressives and the left need a third party that actually represents what we want. Every time we vote for ANY Dem, we sabotage our own efforts and I won’t do it anymore.

    =====================

    Well…damn. I’ve missed YOU, comrad.

    I’m prettymuch in the same place as you, Mack, though, I am not exactly ‘at peace’ with where I’m at. I’m not ‘serene’ about it. I got here by thinking to myself…what do you do when every choice is a bad one, when every road leads to Hell? 🙂 My own answer to that was ‘vote yer conscience.’

    But i totally respect any leftists decision to vote for Hillary/Biden/Gore/Edwards/Clinton/Whoever

    Have you ever heard of Scott Nearing, btw? I’m reading a good book by him called Making Of A Radical

    w
    v
    ————
    Good book, I’m reading:https://www.amazon.com/Making-Radical-Political-Autobiography-Good-ebook/dp/B005VDX0B2
    Scott Nearing

    in reply to: To Support Biden, Or Not To Support Biden… #112325
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I couldn’t get through all of that… fucking Bill Maher…

    As someone who’s VERY loud on twitter pushing the #NeverBiden and #BernieOrBust, I make it clear to every shitlib who makes the mistake of coming at me what’s up.

    And it’s all your guys’ fault asking me if my principles matched my politics all those years ago…

    Now I’m nearly a leftist… LOL

    but for real, tho… I won’t vote for any Dem again. Period. Not even AOC if she runs in 2024.

    That party needs to die in a fucking fire and the ONLY way that happens is if we stop acquiescing to this “lesser of two evils” nonsense… which it is because as we all know, it’s more accurate to say “the different of two evils”.

    If anything, Trump’s incompetence has led him to do LESS harmful shit than Obama did… no new wars and very few legislative achievements unlike Clinton who woulda worked with McConnell to give the Republicans not only everything they wanted, but cover because it happened under a Dem President.

    Nah, progressives and the left need a third party that actually represents what we want. Every time we vote for ANY Dem, we sabotage our own efforts and I won’t do it anymore.

    =====================

    Well…damn. I’ve missed YOU, comrad.

    I’m prettymuch in the same place as you, Mack, though, I am not exactly ‘at peace’ with where I’m at. I’m not ‘serene’ about it. I got here by thinking to myself…what do you do when every choice is a bad one, when every road leads to Hell? 🙂 My own answer to that was ‘vote yer conscience.’

    But i totally respect any leftists decision to vote for Hillary/Biden/Gore/Edwards/Clinton/Whoever

    Have you ever heard of Scott Nearing, btw? I’m reading a good book by him called Making Of A Radical

    w
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    ————

    in reply to: To Support Biden, Or Not To Support Biden… #112298
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I hadnt seen this one before. This is classic. A centrist and a leftist, try to talk politics. This is how it almost always goes.

    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112286
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    An almost capitalist rags to riches story.

    w
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    ==================================
    purrell:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html
    He Has 17,700 Bottles Of Hand Sanitizer

    On March 1, the day after the first coronavirus death in the United States was announced, brothers Matt and Noah Colvin set out in a silver S.U.V. to pick up some hand sanitizer. Driving around Chattanooga, Tenn., they hit a Dollar Tree, then a Walmart, a Staples and a Home Depot. At each store, they cleaned out the shelves.

    Over the next three days, Noah Colvin took a 1,300-mile road trip across Tennessee and into Kentucky, filling a U-Haul truck with thousands of bottles of hand sanitizer and thousands of packs of antibacterial wipes, mostly from “little hole-in-the-wall dollar stores in the backwoods,” his brother said. “The major metro areas were cleaned out.”

    Matt Colvin stayed home near Chattanooga, preparing for pallets of even more wipes and sanitizer he had ordered, and starting to list them on Amazon. Mr. Colvin said he had posted 300 bottles of hand sanitizer and immediately sold them all for between $8 and $70 each, multiples higher than what he had bought them for. To him, “it was crazy money.” To many others, it was profiteering from a pandemic.

    The next day, Amazon pulled his items and thousands of other listings for sanitizer, wipes and face masks. The company suspended some of the sellers behind the listings and warned many others that if they kept running up prices, they’d lose their accounts. EBay soon followed with even stricter measures, prohibiting any U.S. sales of masks or sanitizer.

    in reply to: Why are humans the only mammals with bad teeth? #112284
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I’d like to see your precious James Nestor answer that!

    ==================

    I ordered a used book authored by James Nestor, because in a youtube, he taught me that Sperm Whales can “vibrate a human to death” if they want to.

    When is the MSM going to tell the American People that Sperm Whales have the power to vibrate us all to death? Why the cover-up? How did the entire establishment turn everyone into Vibration Deniers? Answer me that, Mr. Neanderthal.

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    in reply to: This President has got to go #112271
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-skA4GhVX7k

    The country is taking the virus seriously now with schools, sports, and events being cancelled. Even though our system is incredibly screwed up because of Trump, there’s still lots of professionals who will do a good job. The US probably won’t come close to doing as good as Germany and South Korea. But Germany has 4,000 cases and 8 deaths. Yes EIGHT!

    So this virus is hardly the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic where millions died.

    And you can bet that Trump will be crowing about how well he managed the crisis.

    ======================

    Hope you are right, Cal. I dunno much about Germany, but I’m guessing they dont have millions of people with no health care.

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    in reply to: Social aspects of the Virus situation #112270
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Virus comedy, is big in NY.

    in reply to: notes from expert panel on the virus & other expert views #112258
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    PS, on that link, if u scroll down to the bottom there is a good podcast on the virus, by doctory types:
    link:https://emcrit.org/ibcc/covid19/

    ======================

    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    This site is purty good on the basics, Invader. At least thats what I’ve been told. See the actual link. I just cut and pasted a bit of it.
    Its ‘mutating’ btw. Two distinct strains as of now, from what i read from a Doc on a message board.

    link:https://emcrit.org/ibcc/covid19/

    basics

    COVID-19 is a non-segmented, positive sense RNA virus.
    COVID-19 is part of the family of coronaviruses. This contains:
    (i) Four coronaviruses which are widely distributed and usually cause the common cold (but can cause viral pneumonia in patients with comorbidities).
    (ii) SARS and MERS – these caused epidemics with high mortality which are somewhat similar to COVID-19. COVID-19 is most closely related to SARS.
    It binds via the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor located on type II alveolar cells and intestinal epithelia (Hamming 2004).
    This is the same receptor as used by SARS (hence the technical name for the COVID-19, “SARS-CoV-2”).
    When considering possible therapies, SARS (a.k.a. “SARS-CoV-1”) is the most closely related virus to COVID-19.
    COVID-19 is mutating, which may complicate matters even further (figure below). Virulence and transmission will shift over times, in ways which we cannot predict. New evidence suggests that there are roughly two different groups of COVID-19. This explains why initial reports from Wuhan described a higher mortality than some more recent case series (Tang et al. 2020; Xu et al 2020).
    (Ongoing phylogenetic mapping of new strains can be found here.)
    ———–

    stages of illness ??

    There seem to be different stages of illness that patients may move through.
    (#1) Replicative stage – Viral replication occurs over a period of several days. An innate immune response occurs, but this response fails to contain the virus. Relatively mild symptoms may occur due to direct viral cytopathic effect and innate immune responses.
    (#2) Adaptive immunity stage – An adaptive immune response eventually kicks into gear. This leads to falling titers of virus. However, it may also increase levels of inflammatory cytokines and lead to tissue damage – causing clinical deterioration. There is a suggestion that this could lead to virus-induced hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH)(Mehta et al.). More discussion about this entity and possible therapy here.
    This progression may explain the clinical phenomenon wherein patients are relatively OK for several days, but then suddenly deteriorate when they enter the adaptive immunity stage (e.g. Young et al. 3/3/2020).
    This has potentially important clinical implications:
    Initial clinical symptoms aren’t necessarily predictive of future deterioration. Sophisticated strategies may be required to guide risk-stratification and disposition (see below section on prognosis).
    Anti-viral therapies might need to be deployed early to work optimally (during the replicative stage).
    Immunosuppressive therapy (e.g. low-dose steroid) might be best initiated during the adaptive immune stage (with a goal of blunting this immunopathologic response slightly, in the sickest patients). But this is purely speculative.

    transmission

    (back to contents)
    large droplet transmission

    COVID-19 transmission can occur via large droplet transmission (with a risk limited to ~6 feet from the patient)(Carlos del Rio 2/28).
    This is typical for respiratory viruses such as influenza.
    Transmission via large droplet transmission can be prevented by using a standard surgical-style mask.

    airborne transmission ??

    It’s controversial whether COVID19 can be transmitted via an airborne route (small particles which remain aloft in the air for longer periods of time). Airborne transmission would imply the need for N95 masks (“FFP2” in Europe), rather than surgical masks. This controversy is explored further in Shiu et al 2019.
    Airborne precautions started being used with MERS and SARS out of an abundance of caution (rather than any clear evidence that coronaviruses are transmitted via an airborne route). This practice has often been carried down to COVID19.
    Guidelines disagree about whether to use airborne precautions:
    The Canadian Guidelines and World Health Organization guidelines both recommend using only droplet precautions for routine care of COVID19 patients. However, both of these guidelines recommend airborne precautions for procedures which generate aerosols (e.g. intubation, noninvasive ventilation, CPR, bag-mask ventilation, and bronchoscopy).
    The United States CDC recommends using airborne precautions all the time when managing COVID19 patients.
    Using airborne precautions for all patients who are definitely or potentially infected with COVID19 will likely result in rapid depletion of N95 masks. This will leave healthcare providers unprotected when they actually need these masks for aerosol-generating procedures.
    In the context of a pandemic, the Canadian and WHO guidelines may be more sensible in countries with finite resources (i.e. most locales). However, infection control is ultimately local, so be sure to follow your hospital’s guidance regarding this.

    contact transmission (“fomite-to-face”)

    This mode of transmission has a tendency to get overlooked, but it may be incredibly important. This is how it works:
    (i) Someone with coronavirus coughs, emitting large droplets containing the virus. Droplets settle on surfaces in the room, creating a thin film of coronavirus. The virus may be shed in nasal secretions as well, which could be transmitted to the environment.
    (ii) The virus persists on fomites in the environment. Human coronaviruses can survive on surfaces for up to about a week (Kampf et al 2020). It’s unknown how long COVID-19 can survive in the environment, but it might be even longer (some animal coronaviruses can survive for weeks!).
    (iii) Someone else touches the contaminated the surface hours or days later, transferring the virus to their hands.
    (iv) If the hands touch a mucous membrane (eyes, nose, or mouth), this may transmit the infection.
    Any effort to limit spread of the virus must block contact transmission. The above chain of events can be disrupted in a variety of ways:
    (a) Regular cleaning of environmental surfaces (e.g. using 70% ethanol or 0.5% sodium hypochlorite solutions; for details see Kampf et al 2020 and CDC guidelines).
    (b) Hand hygiene (high concentration ethanol neutralizes the virus and is easy to perform, so this might be preferable if hands aren’t visibly soiled)(Kampf 2017).
    (c) Avoidance of touching your face. This is nearly impossible, as we unconsciously touch our faces constantly. The main benefit of wearing a surgical mask could be that the mask acts as a physical barrier to prevent touching the mouth or nose.
    Any medical equipment could become contaminated with COVID-19 and potentially transfer virus to providers (e.g. stethoscope earpieces and shoes). A recent study found widespread deposition of COVID-19 in one patient’s room, but fortunately this seems to be removable by cleaning with sodium dichloroisocyanurate (Ong et al 2020).

    when can transmission occur?

    (#1) Asymptomatic transmission (in people with no or minimal symptoms) appears to be possible (Carlos del Rio 2/28).
    (#2) Transmission appears to occur over roughly ~8 days following the initiation of illness.
    Patients may continue to have positive pharyngeal PCR for weeks after convalescence (Lan 2/27). However, virus culture methods are unable to recover viable virus after ~8 days of clinical illness (Wolfel 2020). This implies that prolonged PCR positivity probably doesn’t correlate with clinical virus transmission. However, all subjects in Wolfel et al. had mild illness, so it remains possible that prolonged transmission could occur in more severe cases.
    CDC guidance is vague on how long patients with known COVID-19 should be isolated. It may be advisable to obtain two paired RT-PCR tests (one of the nasopharynx and one of the pharynx), with each pair collected >24 hours apart, prior to discontinuing precautions.

    R⌀

    R⌀ is the average number of people that an infected person transmits the virus to.
    If R⌀ is <1, the epidemic will burn out.
    If R⌀ = 1, then epidemic will continue at a steady pace.
    If R⌀ >1, the epidemic will increase exponentially.
    Current estimates put R⌀ at ~2.5-2.9 (Peng PWH et al, 2/28). This is a bit higher than seasonal influenza.
    R⌀ is a reflection of both the virus and also human behavior. Interventions such as social distancing and improved hygiene will decrease R⌀.
    Control of spread of COVID-19 in China proves that R⌀ is a modifiable number that can be reduced by effective public health interventions.
    The R⌀ on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship was 15 – illustrating that cramped quarters with inadequate hygiene will increase R⌀ (Rocklov 2/28).

    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Coupla posts from the lifeboat board:https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/msg/1584129549.html

    ==================

    More than half of UK needs to catch coronavirus to develop ‘herd immunity’, Government’s chief scientist says

    ” Sir Patrick Vallance told Sky News around 60% of the UK population would need to contract the deadly COVID-19 in order for society to develop “herd immunity”…”

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-latest-covid19-herd-immunity-patrick-vallance-a4386476.html

    ==================
    Reply:
    Dan
    yup. if 60% of population has to get high mortality disease to become immune

    Posted by dan on March 13, 2020, 8:45 pm, in reply to “Governments chief scientist claims 60% confers “Herd Immunity.””

    then hundreds of thousands will die.

    And then there’s the fact that it’s a mutating cold virus so we may not be immune anyway.

    Apparently closing schools may knock 3% off gdp

    Another Angry Voice is good on this – from facebook

    Yesterday ITV reported that the favoured Tory Covid-19 strategy was to allow the British public to develop “herd immunity”.

    In the absence of a Covid-19 vaccine this is a terrifying proposal: Mass exposure to the virus so people develop immunity to the strain, in the hope that it doesn’t just keep mutating into new strains like the flu and common cold do (incidentally – the more people who get exposed, the more likely Covid-19 mutates into a new strain that’s immune to previously acquired resistance).

    Mass exposure undoubtedly means mass death (not just from the virus itself, but amongst other critically ill people who are crowded out of the health system), and Johnson was shockingly upfront about it when he warned the British public about the loss of their loved ones later in the day.

    If the virus is allowed to spread to the point that the public acquire herd immunity, that would have to mean something like 90% exposure. With a death rate of somewhere around 2%-4%, that would require somewhere between 1.2 to 2.4 million deaths!

    This strategy is completely out of step with the Asian countries that have contained the exponential spread of the virus, and with all of our European neighbours who have brought in measures like school closures, travel restrictions, and sports shut downs.

    What the Tories are doing is playing another massive high stakes public policy gamble with potentially even more serious ramifications than their 2016 Brexit gamble.

    If their gable pays off it means the virus will continue spreading across the world, with mass deaths in every country, but Britain will have avoided some of the more severe economic disruption experienced by other countries with stricter containment strategies.

    If the gamble fails and Britain suffers mass deaths, while other countries manage to contain the crisis, or at least delay the worst of the carnage until after a vaccine is developed, then the losses will be extraordinary.

    First of all hundreds of thousands of people will have needlessly died as a result of this Tory “herd immunity” strategy, but the economic losses could be absolutely enormous too.

    Imagine other countries manage to contain the virus, but it runs wild in the UK and a few other nations led by hard-right ‘let the vulnerable die’ eugenicists.

    It would obviously be in the other countries interests to prevent virus riddled British people keep reinfecting their populations.

    We’d be looking at a travel ban to keep the virus in Britain and the other countries that decided to let the virus run wild.

    And amazingly this isn’t even the worst case scenario. The worst case is that by letting the virus run through the population in an effort to develop herd immunity, the nation is turned into a breeding ground for mutant strains of the virus that can potentially reinfect everyone all over again, making the UK an absolute pariah-state.

    Combined with the economic impact of all the deaths, the implications of becoming a virus-ridden pariah state are obviously far worse than the potential economic savings of delaying/avoiding economically disruptive containment measures.

    In gambling terms it looks like the Tories are staking a vast sum on a bet with extremely short odds, meaning if they win they profit by a tiny fraction of the stake, but if they lose, they deliver not only mass deaths and NHS breakdown, but an economic crisis vastly larger than the economic disruption they’re seeking to avoid.

    The really sad thing about this is that we all knew something like this was a possibility with the Tories in charge.

    We know the Tories are prepared to let tens of thousands die as a result of their policies after their wanton cuts to the NHS and social care systems pushed huge numbers of people into early graves over the last decade.

    We also know that they’re prone to taking massively risky public policy gambles, because of the way they allowed a Brexit referendum when the Brexiteers hadn’t even drawn up a plan for how to leave if they actually won.

    We knew dangerous gambling, economic chaos, and unnecessary deaths were very serious risks when we reelected the Tories once again, but presumably those of us who voted for them considered these risks “a price worth paying” in return for whatever (probably imaginary) benefit they thought they’d be getting from Tories continuing to run the country.

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