Puka Nacua this season:
– Highest-graded WR vs man coverage
– Highest-graded WR vs zone coverage

Read more about his Offensive Player of the Year campaign ⬇️https://t.co/xVtzAy4hB6

— PFF (@PFF) January 8, 2026

from 2025 NFC Wild Card Preview:

Scott Kacsmar

* https://www.365scores.com/news/2025-nfc-wild-card-preview

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+10.5, O/U 46.5)

The No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5) will take on the No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-9) this Saturday afternoon in Carolina. The Panthers, winners of the NFC South for the first time since 2015, backed into the playoffs with a losing record thanks to the Falcons beating the Saints on Sunday. But despite the 4-game difference in record, we have seen two of the four playoff teams with a losing record in a full season still win a playoff game at home (2010 Saints and 2014 Panthers did it).

Also, the Panthers finished 2025 with a minus-69 scoring differential, which isn’t nice at all. But of the five other playoff teams with a scoring differential of minus-60 or lower, they were 4-1 in their first playoff game, so playing at home or playing a team you’re familiar with that season can be very advantageous, and the 2025 Rams have already lost some games they should have won this year, so don’t skip this one because of the big spread.

The Last Matchup

2025, Week 13: Panthers 31, Rams 28

We don’t have to go back far with these teams. In Week 13, the Panthers were a 10-point home underdog and still pulled off a 31-28 upset win. Here are some key notes from the upset:

Matthew Stafford had three turnovers, including a pick-six and a huge strip-sack fumble while the Rams were in scoring territory late in a 31-28 game.

Bryce Young had big help from his running game (35 carries for 141 yards), and he threw for 206 yards on 15-of-20 passing with two of his three touchdown passes coming on fourth downs, including the game-winning touchdown to Tetairoa McMillan (his only catch of the game) with 6:34 left.

The Rams had 153 rushing yards on 20 carries from the running backs, and Davante Adams caught two touchdowns.
All eight of the Rams’ drives ended in either a touchdown or turnover except for one three-and-out punt in the third quarter.

Despite the big sack-fumble late in the game, Stafford’s pressure rate (13.3%) was the lowest in any of his games this season at Carolina (source: NFL Pro).

Even with a +3 turnover differential, big rushing yardage, and playing a Pacific team at home in an early window, the Panthers still barely pulled this one out. But that has been their style of winning in the Young era, and now he gets to play the biggest game of his NFL career.

Injury Watch

After missing the last three games with a hamstring injury, Davante Adams looks like he should be back this Saturday for the Rams to give Stafford his second-biggest weapon. It remains to be seen if RB2 Blake Corum can go after an injury on Sunday against Arizona. The Rams have also had some offensive line injuries down the stretch, but guard Kevin Dotson could return this week too. Safety Quentin Lake is also trying to return after missing the final seven games.

For Carolina, several starters and key contributors missed the Week 13 upset and should be back this week. None are bigger than Pro Bowl corner Jaycee Horn, who missed one game this season and it just so happened to be the Rams game. He’ll be there to help defend Puka Nacua and Adams this week. The Panthers also will have linebackers Chrisitan Rozeboom and Claudin Cherelus back as well as center Cade Mays.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

The Panthers (+10.5) are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history if this line holds, beating out the 10-point spreads for the 2020 Commanders against Tampa Bay (Bucs won 31-23 in an empty stadium during COVID) and for the 2010 Seahawks at home against the Saints (won 41-36 thanks to Marshawn Lynch’s “Beastquake” touchdown).
Home underdogs of 7+ points are 4-0-1 ATS and 3-2 SU in NFL playoff history.

The 2025 Rams have already lost three games as a favorite of more than a touchdown: Lost 26-23 vs. 49ers (+9), lost 31-28 at Panthers (+10), and lost 27-24 at Falcons (+7.5).

The only Super Bowl winner in NFL history to lose more than two games in a season as a favorite of 7.5+ points was the 1995 Cowboys, who had four such losses in the regular season.

Upsets aside, the 2025 Rams are 12-5 ATS, tied with the Jaguars and Seahawks for the best spread record this season.

The Rams have outperformed the spread by an average of +4.1 points, which ranks fifth this season.

The 2025 Panthers are 10-7 ATS (+0.2 points on average).

Under head coach Dave Canales, the Panthers are 9-5 ATS as a home underdog, including a 5-2 ATS record in 2025.
The over is 10-7 in Rams games and 7-10 in Panthers games.

The over is 5-1 when the Rams are a road favorite this year.

The Panthers are 6-0 when they score at least 23 points, and five of those games were at home, including a season-high 31 points against the Rams.

The Rams are 10-0 when they allow no more than 20 points, and they are 2-5 when they allow at least 26 points.
The Rams have allowed at least 26 points in four of their last six games.

The Rams have had some bad special teams performances this year, but they had their third-best game in EPA on special teams at Carolina in Week 13.

The Panthers are just 4-4 when they allow no more than 20 points.

Third down blues: Carolina is 25th on offense and 31st on defense in third down conversion rate. The Rams are 17th on offense and 7th on defense.

The Rams are in the top 7 in red zone touchdown rate on both sides of the ball while the Panthers are 24th on offense and 14th on defense.

Carolina rookie Tetairoa McMillan (1,014 yards) is the only player on the team to hit 400 receiving yards this year, but he was held to one catch against the Rams – it just happened to be a game-winning touchdown from 43 yards out. But it was the only game this season where he had fewer than 4 targets with just 2.

The Rams are just 1-5 at game-winning drive opportunities this season while the Panthers are 6-4.

The Rams are 6-5 in close games and the Panthers are 7-4.

The Rams have blown three fourth-quarter leads compared to one for Carolina.

Bryce Young has 14 wins as a starter in the NFL and 12 of them came via game-winning drives.

Career records at game-winning drive opportunities: Matthew Stafford is 53-69-1 (.435) and Bryce Young is 12-15 (.444). Those percentages rank 6th and 7th among active starters.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Rams – Finishing Games

The 2025 Rams don’t have an obvious weakness. They average a league-high 30.5 points per game and were the only team to top 500 points this season. They can pass it and run it well, and they generally take care of the ball. Third down conversion rate should be higher than it is for such a team, but Sean McVay has done a great job of keeping the team out of third downs altogether this year.

The defense has been floundering for the Rams ever since the Carolina game in Week 13 as they were the No. 1 scoring defense going into that one before finishing 10th. But they’re good enough against the run and they have pass rushers like Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young, who combined for 26.5 sacks.

But the Rams have major issues at closing games. They’re the only team this season that can say it had a lead in the fourth quarter/overtime of all 17 games. But they’re just 12-5 because they allowed five game-winning drives, and it’s the little things that keep biting them like the field goal unit or their short-yardage running game not delivering:

The Rams blew a 19-point second-half lead in Philadelphia and had two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter, including a game-winning kick that was returned for a touchdown.

Lost 26-23 in overtime to the 49ers after a missed extra point that would have given them a 21-20 lead, then Kyren
Williams fumbled at the goal line on the go-ahead touchdown with 1:05 left, then the running game was stuffed on 4th-and-1 in overtime.

Lost 31-28 in Carolina after giving up that fourth-down touchdown pass to McMillan and Stafford’s fumble after he led a go-ahead touchdown drive set up by a brilliant Nacua catch.

Blew a 30-14 lead in Seattle with under 10:00 left by allowing a punt return touchdown, the flukiest 2-point conversion of the season went against them, they missed a go-ahead field goal, then Darnold’s 8-point drive in overtime ended it, making Stafford the first quarterback in NFL history to lead a go-ahead touchdown drive in overtime and not get the win.

The Rams tied the game at 24 in Atlanta after being down 21 points, but gave up another game-winning drive to Kirk Cousins, then couldn’t get the tying drive after some chances with deep balls.

Not saying the Rams should be 17-0, but they certainly had their chances to win every game here. For a team in 2021 that set an NFL record by winning three straight playoff games by 1-3 points to win the Super Bowl, it seems pretty impossible that the Rams can get through this 4-game playoff run without having to win some close ones, and they haven’t shown they can consistently do that this season.

Panthers – Relying on Close Finishes

When you’re 7-4 in close games like the Panthers, that means they’re 1-5 in games that aren’t within a score in the fourth quarter. More likely to get blown out.

Waiting until the fourth quarter to win the game might not be a problem for Carolina against this particular opponent because of how the Rams have allowed five game-winning drives and counting. But the Panthers are often in these situations because they just don’t play a lot of good football.

Their situational stats are not good, their field position is average at best, they are below average in per-play averages at passing and rushing, and that’s why they were outscored by 69 points this season.

For all of Bryce Young’s heroics, he only averaged 188.2 passing yards per game as throwing for 200 was often a struggle outside of that game in Atlanta with a franchise-record 448 yards.

Just two weeks ago, Young finished the Seattle loss at home with 40 net passing yards on 26 pass plays. The Rams don’t play defense as well as Seattle, but Young has to show his Week 13 game wasn’t just a fluke with the fourth-down touchdown passes the difference between a great game and a poor one. As it stands, the Rams are the only defense Young has thrown for 200 yards against at home this year.

The Rams should win this game, but that’s something you could have said about every game they’ve played this year. Still, they have five losses and the defense has been underperforming going into the playoffs. A potentially historic point spread for a playoff game is another reason I’d be leaning towards the Carolina Reaper at home to cover here with a nod to the over 46.5 points.

It’s just a big spread for a Rams team that was in a 23-20 barnburner with the Cardinals on Sunday before blowing it open with a couple of touchdowns. The Panthers have the recent experience of beating this team at home, defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero coached under McVay and might have a good read on this team, and the Rams have those flaws with their third-down offense, short-yardage running game, and the kicking unit.

Stafford should throw multiple touchdowns with Adams back, and he’s had 2+ passing touchdowns in 11 straight games and has generally played well in the postseason in his career. But when I think about Young’s biggest games usually coming against the best teams (see Chiefs and Eagles last year), I couldn’t bet against the Panthers with this large of a spread. The Rams might secretly wish Tampa Bay, a team they throttled, got in instead as the Panthers have just enough of the right stuff to make this an all-time upset sweep.

wv wrote:

Rams are early 10 point favorites.

So you’re saying, the Rams are being underestimated.

"Fernando can see it…If you allow him to know what you're in, you're dead. He's going to carve you up."

– @danorlovsky7 weighs in on Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore. pic.twitter.com/zmAmwQqVaM

— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) January 7, 2026

Nate Atkins@NateAtkins_
Matthew Stafford on getting a rematch against the Panthers:

“I’d like to not throw it to their team. That was the story of the game.”

He said the back end of Carolina’s defense, with Jaycee Horn back, is arguably the best the Rams will have faced this season.

Cameron DaSilva@camdasilva
Quentin Lake = back

The Rams activated him today

LA Rams Roster Moves:
• Activated, from Reserve S Quentin Lake
• Reserve/Injured ILB Shaun Dolac
• Terminated (by Club) from Practice Squad S Nate Valcarcel
• Signed Practice Squad Veteran LB Ben Niemann pic.twitter.com/hS3N6xeWyj

— x – Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 6, 2026

Should Matthew Stafford win the MVP? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/61t4fU36Cv

— PFF (@PFF) January 6, 2026

wv wrote:

Last time they played:

Revenge