Matthew Stafford makes final MVP push to cap off a regular season that saved his joy

Nate Atkins

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6940884/2026/01/05/rams-matthew-stafford-mvp-case/?source=emp_shared_article

INGLEWOOD, Calif. — The final regular-season game of Matthew Stafford’s 17th NFL season wasn’t going according to plan.

In a get-right opportunity at SoFi Stadium against an Arizona Cardinals team on an eight-game losing streak, the Los Angeles Rams had every intention of playing their starters, returning to their offensive baseline — and perhaps something more for their leader along the way.

But through nearly three quarters, Stafford was sailing downfield passes that didn’t land, playing in long down-and-distance situations and watching the ball slip through his tight ends’ hands. But when it culminated in a four-point deficit, Stafford did what he’s done so much in a season he didn’t quite see coming.

He dialed in. And everyone else followed.

Stafford went back to those tight ends time and again, right as the run game was finally finding life against a tired Cardinals defense. On four throws, he hit star receiver Puka Nacua for 9 yards, running back Blake Corum for 10 yards and then found those tight ends again — 21 yards to Tyler Higbee up the seam and 21 yards to Colby Parkinson on play action as he drifted backward with a rusher in his face and lofted a ball that Parkinson ran under in stride before barreling into the end zone.

Then he did it again, and again. All of a sudden, Stafford turned a four-point deficit into three long drives capped by touchdown passes to tight ends. The final one was a sidearm shot to Parkinson from a yard out, marking the last throw of an immaculate regular-season campaign he never knew would get off the ground. That throw, too, was the final statement in the race for one honor this history-chasing quarterback has yet to chase down.

In the end, Stafford was 25-of-40 passing for 259 yards and four touchdowns as the Rams secured a 37-20 victory over the Cardinals to lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC and set up a wild-card matchup with the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.

“I think Matthew’s the MVP of the league,” Rams coach Sean McVay said. “He played that way. I wouldn’t want anybody else leading the way. I’ve got a lot of respect for a bunch of people in this league, but there’s nobody I’d rather have be the quarterback of the LA Rams than Matthew Stafford. His play speaks for itself.”

This has been the giant elephant in the room of the Rams’ season since it started. Ever since he showed up after weeks of not throwing while in a hyperbaric chamber to manage a degenerative back issue at 37 years old, only to lead a victory over an elite Houston Texans defense in Week 1, the potential has simmered for a Stafford season that has never happened before.

It would take something special to achieve, given that he was already pushing top-10 all time in every major career passing statistic, had a 5,000-yard season and multiple 40-touchdown years under his belt, and a Super Bowl ring sitting at home.

But never had Stafford had the mix of high-volume production with superb ball security and efficiency that was long the separator between players such as Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, and the rest of the good quarterbacks like him. To achieve it at this point in his career, with less mobility than he’s ever had and a back that couldn’t risk a vicious hit, was going to take something remarkable. Something new.

“Make it to Week 1,” Stafford said of his goals this season. “Just hoping I did that. We got there, and we just held on for dear life.”

This season, McVay and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur have thrown so much of their energy into finding ways to keep their quarterback upright and his arm as powerful and confident as it’s always been. That’s why they planned on a soft training camp for him after last season ended, even with a new star receiver to break into the offense in Davante Adams.

It led them to tinker with two-tight-end sets for the first time, then expand it to three-tight-end sets. It’s why Kyren Williams outsnapped Blake Corum so much early in the season to ensure elite blitz pickup. It’s why they re-signed Williams in the offseason and drafted Corum in 2024 to balance the offense, and why they put Rob Havenstein on injured reserve and handed the right tackle job to Warren McClendon Jr. once he proved to be the most healthy and stable pass protector.

Those protective measures, combined with the complementary strengths of Williams and Corum, the addition of Adams as a red zone cheat code and the manipulative forces of 13-personnel, have created a setting of comfort, balance and control that Stafford has never enjoyed before. And in some ways, none of this is really all that surprising to the ones who see it from the inside.

“I’ve never seen anything that is anything but great from Matthew,” Williams said. “For me to be able to see the results and the things that happen because of that work, it gives me the confidence that my work will pay off the way his is.”

But that doesn’t steal from the joy it’s become to watch. As Stafford has climbed the career passing charts — he’s now seventh all time with 420 touchdown passes and sixth all time with 64,516 passing yards — he’s also compiled the highlights, from no-look touchdowns to deep passes after a reset under pressure to big-time performances against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco on national TV.

“Stafford, I think he’s the freaking goat,” defensive end Jared Verse said. “I’ve never been around a player who can do all the things he can do. … He’s one of the best players to ever live. It’s an award that he should get.”

Stafford has to hope that his latest moment on prime time didn’t set his season-long case back more than he can overcome. That came in Atlanta, where he threw three interceptions, including a pick six, as the Rams fell 27-24 to the Falcons in Week 17 and were then eliminated from contention in the NFC West.

Not since Adrian Peterson in 2012 has an MVP represented a team that wasn’t a division champion. That will be New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye’s case, along with 450 rushing yards and four scores and better underlying efficiency as the NFL’s leader in completion percentage. But Maye has also thrown 15 fewer touchdowns and played in a division and schedule inherently different from those in the NFC West, which features three teams with at least 12 wins.

Entering the final week, the Rams boasted the NFL’s No. 1 strength of schedule, and the Patriots ranked 32nd. Stafford has won four games over teams with at least 11 wins, whereas Maye has defeated just one team that has a winning record, the Buffalo Bills.

Stafford closes the regular season leading the league with 46 touchdown passes and 4,707 passing yards, all while throwing just eight interceptions.

“I know there’s a lot of media hype for Drake and a lot of people pushing it, but there’s nobody who can lead a team like Matt does,” defensive end Kobie Turner said. “There’s nobody who can make those plays in the clutch moments like Matt does. … He 1,000 percent deserves it. It’s not an ‘I think.’ Drake Maye has had a really solid year as well, but no question about it, Matt deserves it.”

Whether this season brings an MVP trophy for Stafford or he falls just short, whether it manifests in a return to the Super Bowl or not, it serves a purpose beyond the production. After weeks in the hyperbaric chamber, Stafford emerged as the best version he’s ever been. His age and experience have become his weapon, not his downfall, and the joy he’s discovered with each no-look pass, play-action fake and deep shot up the sideline has restored something that he never wants to let go.

“I love playing this game,” Stafford said. “I don’t take any of these opportunities to play on a Sunday for granted. … Luckily, we have some more times to do that.”

Reaching the playoffs isn’t just an expectation for a team with the track record of this one. It’s also a way to keep the flame burning in No. 9.

.@AZCardinals @RamsNFL @AsapPuka a one handed beauty on 4th-2… bump this to Puka's growing resume' reel. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/H4DgnaZ5fX

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 5, 2026

ME: I’m resigned to the fact that injury updates can be repetitive, but sometimes you can’t avoid posting ones that come later with the same info but more nuance added

***

Brock Vierra@BrockVierra
Per Sean McVay: Rams expected to play Quentin Lake and Davante Adams. Only injury questions after Cardinals game are for Jordan Whittington and Shaun Dolac but there are no updates.

Rams expect Terrance Ferguson will play.

Adam Grosbard@AdamGrosbard
Without Davante Adams, the Rams’ red zone conversion rate has dropped 20 points.

Without Quentin Lake, the Rams run defense EPA has gone from third to 20th.

Both are coming back just in time for the Rams’ playoff opener against the Panthers

Nate Atkins@NateAtkins_
The Rams still expect to get WR Davante Adams and S Quentin Lake back for Saturday’s wildcard game against the Panthers.

“We’ll see” on RG Kevin Dotson, Sean McVay said.

He’s hopeful that TE Terrance Ferguson can play after tweaking his hamstring late last week.

This is in 2 threads. The full version covers all 14 teams (here: https://theramshuddle.com/topic/playoffs-week-1-wild-card-round/ )

from Albert Breer’s 2025 NFL Playoffs Preview, and Why Each Team Can Win the Super Bowl…Executives and coaches weigh in on the 14-team field, including input on X-factors, fatal flaws, under-the-radar players and big unknowns for every team: https://www.si.com/nfl/albert-breer-2025-nfl-playoffs-preview-why-each-team-can-win-super-bowl

…

Los Angeles Rams (12–5)
Division finish: Second, NFC West

Why they’ll win it all: Because they might be the best team, and Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Chris Shula were there when the Rams last won a Super Bowl four years ago. L.A. can beat teams through the air, on the ground and with a ferocious defensive front that might be the NFL’s most complete.

X-factor: The team’s tight end room. Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and rookie Terrance Ferguson have all been factors, and grizzled veteran Tyler Higbee is back after an ankle injury sidelined him since November. McVay has played chessmaster with that crew, and having that sort of depth and versatility has allowed him to dictate the rules of engagement to defenses, forcing certain opposing personnel onto the field and then making them cover. It’s a nightmare for other teams to deal with, and it helps to take pressure off and coverage away from Puka Nacua.

Fatal flaw: The talent level at corner. The Rams telegraphed their concern at the position with the midseason trade for Roger McCreary. He has worked with the team’s long-term reclamation projects, Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Ahkello Witherspoon, and homegrown Cobie Durant. Jared Verse, Kobie Turner and the team’s pass rush have helped cover up bad matchups, but that doesn’t mean there’s no anxiety there. “They do a great job hiding it with the pass rush,” said a rival exec. “They just have a very sound team coverage in the secondary. You can see Shula’s really good, because they rarely bust.”

Under-the-radar player: Tutu Atwell. I understand where people might think this is a weird choice, given that Atwell came into Week 18 with only five catches on the season. But when he’s out there with all of those tight ends, and a dominant possession receiver in Nacua, his big-play potential does a lot to keep defenses honest.

Big unknown: How the team’s pass protection will hold up week to week. The Rams’ loss on Monday night exposed some cracks. When L.A. is running it, the scheme is so good that Stafford usually gets rid of the ball fast enough for any of those cracks to show. But if you can get the Rams into long yardage and force the veteran quarterback to hold it longer than he wants to, you give yourself a chance.

…

Carolina Panthers(8–9)
Division finish: First, NFC South

Why they’ll win it all: Because there’s some magic to what Dave Canales has pulled off in Charlotte, I suppose. The reality is that it’s hard to envision a team that would’ve told you in September that they were a year away from making a real run at the whole thing. But if Bryce Young gets hot, Rico Dowdle and the run game show their teeth, a young defense comes together, then I guess anything is possible.

X-factor: Tetairoa McMillan was a polarizing figure in the weeks leading up to the draft. Some coaches and scouts thought that he was a top-10 prospect, and some believed he wasn’t a first-rounder. Seventy catches, 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns later, any doubt has evaporated. “I didn’t like him coming out,” said one prominent AFC offensive assistant, “and he’s proved me wrong.” McMillan has given Young a big target to throw to, and one that he’s become increasingly reliant on, and rightfully so. McMillan basically kept Carolina in the game against the Buccaneers on Saturday.

Fatal flaw: Consistency in the passing game. McMillan has given the Panthers a true No. 1 to rely on, but Carolina doesn’t have another receiver with over 400 yards, or a tight end that’s consistently been a threat. The backs, Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, may be the most significant problems for defenses in the passing game aside from McMillan. And Young, again, has had a very up-and-down 2025.

Under-the-radar player: Dowdle. Tough as nails and now with over 1,000 yards, the former Cowboy went from Hubbard’s backup to the bona fide heart and soul of the Carolina offense. “When he’s fresh,” said one veteran NFC coach, “he runs so hard, he’s like [Chiefs RB Isiah] Pacheco, he’s trying to kill people.” And that bruising style has become part of what this Panthers team has become.

Big unknown: Which version of Young shows up? The third-year man had five games with passer ratings under 65, which is absolutely atrocious. He also had four with 100 passer ratings, three of which came over the season’s final seven weeks. And there are no patterns there, either. The past few of those big games were against the Bucs and Rams. One of the eggs laid was against the Saints. So it’s tough to say what version of Young will surface in the playoffs.

Zooey wrote:

Any day but Monday, please

Sarah Barshop@sarahbarshop
The Rams will play at the Carolina Panthers on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. PT.