Also a reminder: when FA deals are reported with big numbers for 5 years, they are really 1 or 2 years with team options after that. https://t.co/YKRDTDTCHi

— Andrew Brandt (@AndrewBrandt) October 4, 2023

The way Stafford just casually bring out the sidearm throw from the tool box and throws around the incoming blitzer…

There are like 3 QBs who can make this throw, let alone on one leg. pic.twitter.com/xUw0rgud5r

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) October 4, 2023

Many were blaming Hoecht for this touchdown. Sometimes, you just have to give credit where it's due.

Zach Moss picks up the blitz from Cobie Durant. Then, Anthony Richardson just makes an insane throw. Not much you can do, but say "nice play". pic.twitter.com/0SG0bZT9ie

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) October 4, 2023

wv wrote:

This is where Stafford is truly elite, in my view: CBTT. Clutch Big Time Throws. Not just BTT — but Clutch BTT. There is a difference. Its a damned important measure of a QB, I’d say. w v

“Is he clutch” has always been one of my most important “boxes to check” when assessing a qb.

And of course we remember the 2021 post-season, where Stafford came from behind for wins in 2 playoff games and the super bowl.

But in addition to that, you combine his arm and his accuracy and you get all of  these lasers to the middle of the field we’ve been seeing. I’ve never seen a Rams qb own the medium range pass to the middle of the field the way he does.

Steve Avila clearing the way and Kyren Williams runs through two arm tackles for his second touchdown of the day. pic.twitter.com/xjwR7Bsgr1

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) October 4, 2023

Byron Young didn't have a sack on Sunday, but he still made his presence felt. Had Richardson within his grasp several times or forced him out of the pocket. Wins with his hands on this play.

Still can't believe this was called roughing the passer on Kobie Turner. pic.twitter.com/8n1gujHsEf

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) October 4, 2023

I really don't think the Jonah Williams is getting enough credit for what he's doing this season.

The Rams run defense is so much better when he's on the field. Williams is top-10 in the NFL in run-stop win rate. pic.twitter.com/F4Bv4FFm0p

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) October 4, 2023

from https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/04/rams-matthew-stafford-stats-evaluation-play-2023/

[Stafford’s] passing grade at Pro Football Focus is the fourth-best of any quarterback in the league, coming in at 79.6. That’s the fourth-best passing grade of his career, to put it into perspective.

He also has 12 big-time throws, according to PFF, which are passes “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” That’s the most in the NFL, three more than any other player, and his BTT rate (6.9%) is also the highest in the NFL.

Zooey wrote:

zn wrote:

Derion Kendrick was targeted twice and did not allow a single completion against the Colts

Yet he has famous haters in the chat room. {insouciant whistling}

I have to admit he has surprised me. I didn’t like him much last year.

Fwiw PFF has him graded fairly high for the Colts game (78.2), while last year he was their second-worst ranked cornerback in the entire league. Plus of course other than the bonehead TD he gave up in Seattle, we can see he’s doing well.

PLUS Witherspoon is a great signing on top of it–PFF has him ranked 5th among all CBs.

The Rams secondary is one of the good surprises this year.

The podcast I posted today, 10/3, features Rodrique in her best form. There’s a lot here.

Three Rams things: Inside Puka Nacua’s first NFL TD, Matthew Stafford’s hip health, more

Jourdan Rodrigue

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — In a Los Angeles Rams season that will be unpredictable, at times chaotic and always interesting, we’re going to learn a lot about the young and older players (and their coaches) each week.

We’ll put the most interesting or relevant of these developments here, in nicely organized sections. Just for you!

My three things in Week 5:

The irony of Nacua’s first career TD

Rookie receiver Puka Nacua — have I mentioned he was a fifth-round pick? — scored his first NFL touchdown Sunday in wild fashion in Indianapolis. On third-and-4 in overtime, quarterback Matthew Stafford hit Nacua on a 22-yard strike, capitalizing on a communication breakdown out of a bunched receiver set between Indianapolis Colts defensive backs Kenny Moore II and JuJu Brents. Moore gave the “roll” signal too late after the snap, indicating that Brents should have attached to Nacua’s route, but it didn’t happen. Nacua became what we refer to in the business as “wide-ass open” on his route, with no help coming quickly enough because three defenders were trying to occupy Tutu Atwell on the longer concept. Nacua added a couple of yards after the catch to secure the touchdown and the 29-23 win.

“I felt like (it was a blown coverage), looking down the middle going, ‘Man, I’m not seeing somebody in there,’” Stafford told reporters. “Threw it a little bit high, just thinking that there was (a defender) standing there, and there wasn’t.”

Let’s not ignore the pass-rusher pickup on Stafford’s blind side by running back Kyren Williams on the play, either. A rewatch of the play shows Williams’ head swiveling back and forth to find the pressure player as the snap occurs, and then he braces himself against the coming inertia like when the Ents broke the dam to release the River Isen.

Nacua has quickly gained notoriety from opponents as the Rams’ “zone beater,” especially with Cooper Kupp out for the past four games. The Colts are deploying zone coverages at the NFL’s highest rate (84.6 percent, according to TruMedia), and it is a zone-dominant league. No team plays less than 56 percent zone, not even the Don “Wink” Martindale-coordinated New York Giants defense.

Here are Nacua’s statistics against zone coverage, according to TruMedia: 128 of 168 routes run for 433 of 501 yards, 33 catches, 20 first downs and 9.70 air yards per target.

And here are Nacua’s Week 4 statistics against zone coverage: 36 of 42 routes run, 7 of 9 catches, 134 of 163 yards, six first downs and 13.63 air yards per target.

But the irony of Nacua’s touchdown Sunday was that the intended coverage for him on that play, if executed correctly, looked like it was going to be a man concept. TruMedia and Pro Football Focus believed it was, too: Nacua was targeted one time versus man coverage Sunday, for one catch … for 22 yards and a touchdown.

Stafford managing hip injury as reshuffled OL steps up

The Rams’ offensive line protected Stafford well against an impressive Colts defensive line. Stafford was sacked twice, but the pass protection gave up just 12 pressures (versus 20 and six sacks Monday night), and the linemen allowed only six of those pressures and helped the Rams run the ball effectively. A Williams-heavy rotation between he and Ronnie Rivers rushed for 164 yards on 36 carries, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

The group also had its first reshuffle of the season before the game, as Alaric Jackson suffered a hamstring injury against the Cincinnati Bengals. Jackson did not practice all week but worked out with athletic trainers before the game to determine whether it was safe to play. Ultimately, coach Sean McVay said, the team erred on the side of caution and made Jackson inactive, although McVay expressed optimism over Jackson’s progress. Joe Noteboom slid from right guard to left tackle, and Kevin Dotson, whom the Rams traded for in August, started at right guard. Dotson allowed only one pressure, for one of the sacks.

Stafford suffered a right hip contusion in the third quarter but played through the rest of the game. Protecting him, plus the ability to move the line of scrimmage and change the tempo and physicality of the game in overtime are part of why the Rams won (aside from Stafford’s and Nacua’s overtime heroics).

“I think we all just put it on ourself that we need a little extra push at the end of plays, just to make sure people don’t touch him,” Dotson said. “We expect him to be that guy who is gonna grit through it. So it’s the least we can do is keep him up.”

Rams right tackle Rob Havenstein even ran right to Stafford after his game-winning touchdown pass to Nacua, as if to make sure nobody piled on him in celebration.

“I feel like him and Stafford, Rob and Stafford, they’re really close. Those guys being the leaders of the group, Rob being here for nine years, he knows what it takes to keep a good quarterback,” Dotson said. “He just wants to do as much as he can to keep that quarterback up.”

Monday afternoon, McVay said he did not expect Stafford to miss any playing time. They are still evaluating what practice will look like, but McVay sounded optimistic about Stafford’s participation.

“We’ll be smart with him, but it should be good to go,” McVay said. “He’s a stud, and obviously, we saw him gut through that yesterday. Definitely took a good shot there. But we feel like he should be good to go.”

Tale of two halves

The Rams’ first two possessions were highly productive: two touchdowns, 139 yards and 11 first downs. The Rams scored on their first four possessions, out of five total in the first half (the latter two were field goals). They had 17 first-half first downs and an 18-to-20 run-to-pass ratio.

On their second drive, Stafford hit Van Jefferson on a high-level throw over the middle on fourth-and-3 from the Colts’ 32-yard line, which gained 16 yards. Three plays later, the Rams scored a touchdown.

But McVay admitted he went “maybe a little conservative” on other decisions that led to field goals (one a miss). After Ahkello Witherspoon recovered a forced fumble (Jordan Fuller) and the Rams started a drive on their 40-yard line in the first quarter, they got to the Indianapolis 15 and had a fresh set of downs. Center Coleman Shelton was called for a hold, which set up first-and-20 on the Colts’ 25, and the Rams didn’t gain any yardage on the corresponding first-down play. McVay ran the ball on second down and third-and-20, two plays that in sequence were clearly intended to set up a kick by Brett Maher instead of attempting to regain the lost yardage or try for a touchdown.

“It was because of the penalty. That set us back a little bit, where we got ourselves in the first down — ‘No, we’ve got to go behind the sticks,’” McVay said. “Now you’re really saying, ‘Let’s be smart, maybe a little conservative.’ I can deal with that, but we felt like we were in good field goal range for Brett to consistently hit that, and it didn’t go down the way that we wanted.”

McVay’s latter comment about Maher seemingly referred to another field goal try, this one with four seconds remaining in the second quarter, which Maher missed (the Rams led 20-0 at halftime). The Rams had two timeouts with 31 seconds left and were at the Colts’ 34-yard line. They lost a yard on the first play and used their second timeout, then ran a screen on second down that got 7 yards and kept the clock running. After the corresponding third-and-4, the Rams opted to run down the clock to four seconds, signaling they wanted the field goal attempt instead of a final shot at the end zone before halftime. The Colts would get the ball to open the second half.

Playing conservatively with that significant of a lead can be effective if the defense stays productive on the other side. But between the special playmaking ability of Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson and a couple of breakdowns in the Rams defense, the game got tense in a hurry and not keeping his foot on the gas pedal nearly came back to haunt McVay.

Though the defense pitched a scoring shutout in the first half and allowed just 110 net yards, the Colts put together two eight-point scoring drives in the third and fourth quarters and outscored the Rams in the fourth quarter 15-0. The Colts had nine explosive plays (run and pass), and seven were in the second half.

Richardson threw a couple of unbelievable passes in the second half, including a laser while on the run/falling to his right that resulted in a 35-yard Mo Alie-Cox touchdown.

The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen, who is one of my favorite analysts in the sport, is correct in his above comment. But let’s add some context: Michael Hoecht is not supposed to be covering that far downfield because the intent of the defensive play is to not let it develop that long. Cobie Durant was sent on a blitz, which was effectively picked up by the Colts running back. As Durant was blitzing, Hoecht was deployed as a large presence to clog up the shorter, quicker options Richardson might have had, not to cover all the way downfield. Basically, the play is supposed to force the quarterback to throw quickly into a place he doesn’t want to. (Hoecht has been in this position on underneath concepts a couple of times this season and, minus an arguable flag in Week 1, has fared reasonably well.) The lack of pressure getting home plus Richardson’s ability to make such an incredible throw out of structure led to this breakdown and the explosive score.

Hoecht’s Sunday was just one example of the journey of this defense, which we always expected to be a bit bumpy but with resilience on display. Hoecht tipped a second-down pass by Richardson that fell incomplete on a possible game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter. Second-year safety Quentin Lake, in the dime linebacker spot, got a hand on the corresponding third-and-10 to render it incomplete.

The Rams defense ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA, 10th in yards, 15th in points per game (21.3) and 24th in yards per carry, although their defensive rushing success rate — the rate at which opponents can run successful rush plays against them — ranks 11th. They are 15th in explosive plays allowed (25; 10 rushing and 15 passing). All of this is to say they’re about middle of the league in many of the most important categories — certainly a better start than most anticipated.

“I really like the guys, the temperament and the personality of the dynamics of the group defensively,” McVay said, “whether that be the guys up front, the guys on the edges, the guys (at) inside linebacker or the guys on the back end. I think it has been a really cool collaboration of coaches and players, and then continuing to learn on the fly and some great leadership illustrated by guys like Aaron (Donald), Ernest Jones and Jordan Fuller.”

a proper early entry for throw of the year https://t.co/i1k1WvqjGK

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 3, 2023