Scout's Notebook: @BuckyBrooks dives into Sean Payton's coaching masterclass that has revived the Broncoshttps://t.co/A6Ic3Pv72w pic.twitter.com/6kJ0SskgSc

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 2, 2023

Last 2 games, offenses rushing on Cleveland:

Steelers 26 rushes for 172 yards. For the season Steelers are 14th in rushing yards and 12th in YPA.

Broncols 39 rushes for 162 yards. For the season Broncos are 13th in rushing yards and 8th in YPA.

I dont mean to get too technical, but this looks like what football people often call “a vulnerability.”

Rams & Browns in Week 13: L.A. poised for meaningful December football | Game Preview

J.B. Long

https://www.therams.com/news/rams-browns-week-13-game-preview-meaningful-december-football

When they reported to OTAs in May, they weren’t considered contenders.

When they broke training camp in August, few gave them playoff probability.

When they lost three in a row going into their November bye, most pundits were ready to turn out the lights on Los Angeles.

But here on the first weekend of a new month, the Rams are poised to play meaningful football in December.

After sweeping the Seahawks and the Cardinals, they’ve won consecutive games for the first time in 2023 to climb to 5-6.

Defying all construction timelines, this remodel is actually ahead of schedule. And next on the punch list?

A home game against a vaunted but vulnerable Cleveland Browns franchise.

As we forecasted in this space three weeks ago, the Rams had a chance to send their division rival from Seattle into a free-fall. And when the Seahawks potential game-winning field goal sailed wide right at SoFi Stadium in Week 11, that’s precisely what’s occurred.

Thursday night, Pete Carroll and company took their third consecutive defeat despite a valiant showing in Dallas. The Seahawks are now 6-6, with games at San Francisco and versus Philadelphia in the next two weeks.

What that means is that the Rams can move back into Wild Card position as soon as Sunday night, with a win over the Browns combined with a Kansas City prime time win in Green Bay.

Improve Over Time

I knew the Rams were great last week against the Cardinals. I think we all felt like the season-high 37 points could have easily been 47 or more with very little changing.

But this blew my mind: According to Pro Football Reference, the Rams expected points added (EPA) on offense last week was 22.85, the highest of the Matthew Stafford era, surpassing even the high-water marks of the 2021 championship season (and the 50-burger against Denver last Christmas when he was sidelined).

The last time the offense was that productive was Week 2 of 2020 at Philadelphia. (Tyler Higbee went off that day, too. And the Eagles defensive coordinator was Jim Schwartz – he’ll be on the opposing sideline this Sunday for the Browns.)

When Your Best Is Required

As with most football evaluation tools, Pro Football Focus grades are imperfect. But their informed subjectivity and specificity are their strengths, which is why they’re utilized across the league.

These players all earned career-high grades in that Week 12 victory over the Cardinals: offensive guards Kevin Dotson and Steve Avila, safety Jordan Fuller, and corner Derion Kendrick.

And these players all graded out as having their best effort of 2023: corner Ahkello Witherspoon, receiver Tutu Atwell, safety John Johnson III, and left tackle Alaric Jackson.

While last week’s opponent was inferior, the Rams performance – individually and collectively – was superior and should be commended.

But winter is coming…

The North Remembers

Beating Arizona is what the Rams do best, but defeating the AFC North is something L.A. has been unable to do so far.

After letting golden opportunities against the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers slip away, the Rams have two more chances against that crossover division in an eight-day span.

Before a trip to Baltimore (where the Ravens will be coming off a bye), here come the black and blue Browns.

Styles make fights, and unlike the Cardinals, Cleveland has the scheme and talent on defense to make Week 13 a slugfest at SoFi Stadium.

Air Traffic Control

A candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year, we’ll see if Cleveland defensive end Myles Garrett is able to perform through a shoulder injury. He’s two sacks away from joining Reggie White as the second player since sacks became an official statistic (1982) with three straight 15-sack seasons. Thank goodness the Rams locked in their screen game last week.

In large part because of his pressure, the Browns have been the best pass defense in the league this season.

According to NFL Research, they’re on track to allow the fewest passing yards per game (142.0) since the Miami Dolphins in the strike-shortened 1982 season (114.1).

Williams Running Wild

But here’s the catch. What had been a ship-shape unit is suddenly taking on water.

The Browns have surrendered their two highest rushing totals the last two weekends (172 yards on the ground versus Pittsburgh and 169 in Denver).

According to NextGen Stats, the Browns have allowed 3.6 yards after contact per carry in 2023 (NGS). That’s a bunch.

Meantime, we know the Rams rushed for 228 yards in Week 12 at Arizona, the most since their 2018 playoff win over Dallas at the Coliseum.

NFC Offensive Player of the Week, running back Kyren Williams, went for more than 200 scrimmage yards. He also scored two receiving touchdowns, matching Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert for the NFL lead with four multi-touchdown games this season.

He’s the first running back of the McVay Era to go for at least 143 rushing yards in consecutive performances (Todd Gurley did it last in 2015).

Secret Sauce

While Williams – and I cannot stress this enough – absolutely deserves his accolades, it’s his impact on those around him that makes the whole thing go.

It’s not a coincidence that the offensive line dominated in Arizona, run and pass.

Nor is it accidental that head coach Sean McVay called his “best” game of the year in Glendale, with the Rams averaging 7.5 yards per play before pulling starters.

They did all that and won going away with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combining for only eight receptions and 45 yards (while they blocked their tails off).

The play energy of Williams and the confidence he instills matter. He brings out the best in the other 10 Rams on offense and their play-caller.

It shouldn’t undermine the second-year pro one bit to point out that according to Next Gen Stats, he has averaged 2.4 yards before first contact in 2023 (highest among all backs with 100+ carries). He’s also faced a light box (fewer than 7 defenders) on 79.6 percent of carries (also the highest rate). No other qualifier has faced a light box on even 60 percent of handoffs!

Credit goes to Royce Freeman for pulverizing defenses the last couple weeks, too. But Williams appears to be a bit of a skeleton key that unlocks the full potential of the Rams rushing attack.And he’s absolutely going above and beyond, as this graphic illustrates.

Kyren Williams set career-highs in rush yards over expected (+71) and receiving yards over expected (+35) in his first game since coming off injured reserve.#LAvsAZ | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/0vCzyHM3NB

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 27, 2023

And, also, it’s fine to acknowledge that McVay and offensive line coach Ryan Wendell and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and all the receivers and tight ends who fold into the running game are giving Williams a leg up on his peers.

Running the ball is great and all, but Matthew Stafford also thrived in his second game back from a thumb injury, posting season-highs in numerous categories including four touchdowns, while distributing targets to eight Rams in the passing game. He’s putting himself right back in the Pro Bowl conversation.

What’s so infuriating about the aforementioned losses to the Bengals and Steelers, though, is that the Rams clearly, irrefutably, had the best quarterback on the field those days. Joe Burrow was playing on one leg and Kenny Pickett ranks among the league’s least productive passers.

Here comes another week against the AFC North where L.A. has a decided advantage at the most important position in sports.

Whether it’s rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson in an L.A. homecoming or P.J. Walker making another spot start at SoFi Stadium, they have the two lowest passer ratings among all quarterbacks who have start multiple games in 2023, according to NFL Research.

Joe Flacco is a 38-year-old former Super Bowl MVP, sure, but he hasn’t played since the 2022 finale with the Jets, was signed off his couch last week, and is 3-14 in his last 17 starts. (I’ll also note that Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur was with Flacco in New York.)

Staffing Up

A couple statistical trends we’re monitoring for Stafford.

First, his career-long streak of games with at least one interception is five. He’s thrown a pick in four straight for the Rams going into this Cleveland contest (which is wild considering he’s got the second lowest percentage of turnover-worth plays in the NFL behind Dak Prescott, per PFF).

Secondly, he’s already tied for the longest streak of his career with six consecutive outings of fewer than 250 passing yards. Honestly, based on what we’ve discussed, it might be a good indicator for Sunday’s outcome if that stretch goes to seven games and he just plays point guard this week like he did against the Cardinals.

Puka Shells

With his first catch against the Browns (assuming forward progress), Nacua will take sole possession of the Rams rookie record for receiving yards, breaking a tie with Eddie Kennison (924 in 1996).

If he goes for 76 receiving yards or more, he would become only the sixth player since the 1970 merger to reach 1,000 receiving yards in his first 12 career games. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson was the last to do it in his 2020 rookie campaign.

Nacua was our guest on this week’s Rams Revealed and signed off on just about any of your preferred nicknames, including Puka Doncic, Pukamon, and Pukachu.

But only his mother and Kupp call him by his legal name, Makea.

The Defense (Never) Rests

We’ve spilled a lot of digital ink on offense, here. Feels like we owe the Rams defense some love, after they essentially shut out the Cardinals following the opening drive touchdown.

Last week for the holiday, I wrote about how thankful Rams fans should be that coordinator Raheem Morris is still in Los Angeles.

This week, I’ll point out that only the Las Vegas Raiders are spending fewer salary cap dollars on defense than the Rams, according to Spotrac, more than half of which belongs to Aaron Donald. That was by design, and it’s going to set up some really unique opportunities in 2024.

But in the meantime, the L.A. defense is overachieving by leaps and bounds, ranking 21st in DVOA, 17th in EPA, and 16th in points per possession. They’ve only allowed more than 24 points on two occasions this season – the debacle in Dallas (in which 16 of those Cowboys points were essentially non-offensive) and Week 2 versus San Francisco, currently the top offense in football.

The Rams remaining opponents have the following offensive rankings (DVOA/EPA):

Cleveland (28/30)
Baltimore (4/8)
Washington (21/22)
New Orleans (20/20)
New York Giants (31/32)
San Francisco (1/1)

Morris and company are set up for a big closing stretch, with some opportunities to dominate, combined with two great tests of their progress.

Kick the Habit

After a big step forward versus Seattle, the win over Arizona was not without several steps back on special teams – including a missed field goal, an errant extra point, a fake punt surrendered, and a misalignment teeing up a two-point conversion.

McVay gave first-year kicker Lucas Havrisik (who notably was signed off the Cleveland practice squad last month) a vote of confidence on Monday, and it wasn’t just lip service. It was interesting that the head coach noted the surface in Arizona, which is natural grass.

Havrisik has made all five of his kicks off turf (three field goals and two extra points) in Dallas and Inglewood, but has missed two field goal attempts and an extra point on natural grass in Green Bay and Glendale. Too small of a sample size, but something to monitor with road trips to Baltimore and San Francisco left on the schedule – both outdoor grass fields.

Los Angeles has the opportunity to play for some major moments this month. With the defense maturing and the offense finding its best form since the Super Bowl run, let’s see if the kicking game can round into form at just the right time.

InvaderRam wrote:

among rams olinemen or all olinemen?

That’s a ranking for all NFL lineman. He’s not just the top guard, he’s tied for the top OL.

I just read that the Cleveland Browns have not won a game in the West Coast in over a decade. 0-8. 😬

— Allen Sales (@AllenSales) December 1, 2023

wv wrote:

As we have noted before Larry Brooks was one of the most ‘unknown’ great players of the modern era. (I would not have guessed Alex Karras was that high on the list.

That’s all here:

The NFL’s All-Time Career Sack Leaders, Updated with John Turney’s pre-1982 Numbers: https://theramshuddle.com/topic/all-time-career-sack-leaders-updated-with-john-turneys-pre-1982-numbers/

If you go through that thread, you’ll find this:

Here are the top 12, including both official and unofficial stats. I do career sacks, not just sacks with the Rams.

Deacon Jones – 173.5
Kevin Greene – 160
Jack Youngblood – 151.5
Coy Bacon – 130
Kevin Carter – 104.5
Fred Dryer – 103
Merlin Olsen – 94
Leonard Little – 87.5
Robert Quinn – 80.5
Larry Brooks – 74.5
Aaron Donald – 72
Chris Long – 70

That’s from 2020 in June before the season, so obviously the numbers on Donald are wrong. Anyway, the thing about Brooks is, he was getting sacks very early in his career. As a rookie in fact. Over the years, injuries took a lot away from him.

The wikipedia article on Brooks is full of details like that including the sack numbers in his early years.

wv wrote:

Definitely, a solid team, the Browns.   But an underdog solid, wounded, team. An interesting test, for sure.    Win-able.  Lose-able.   w v

It’s this kind of always arguing, win at all costs, everything’s a contest of wills attitude that makes this board the kind of “egos at war” hellscape that it is.

Jordan Fuller was all over the field on Sunday.

Good read/anticipation here gets the PBU. pic.twitter.com/3p6ycRatGJ

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) November 30, 2023

Kyren Williams is so shifty!

Another example of the RB and OL working together. Good work by Dotson/Shelton. Avila does a really nice job as well.

At the same time, Williams does a great job finding the hole and popping this for 50+ yards. pic.twitter.com/Y297cVVHrl

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) November 30, 2023

TuTu Atwell made an impressive catch on the Rams opening drive. Beat press off the line and makes an outstretched grab by his fingertips.

Also…watch Stafford. Briefly looks off the safety who crashes down on Higbee. Leaves Atwell open over the top. Impressive stuff. pic.twitter.com/OPlj1njfU8

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) November 30, 2023

JAKE ELLENBOGEN@JKBOGEN
All-time sacks per game (Min.90 games) for DT

1. Aaron Donald 0.728
2. Alan Page 0.681
3. John Randle 0.628
4. Keith Millard 0.624
5. Alex Karras 0.621
6. Chris Jones 0.620
7. Roger Brown 0.572
8. Larry Brooks 0.569
9. Tom Sestak 0.542
10. Otis Sistrunk 0.541

I also calculated the all-time sacks per game which includes unofficial sacks counted by PFR: (Min. 90 Games)

1. DE TJ Watt 0.929
2. DE Myles Garrett 0.921
3. DE Deacon Jones 0.908
4. DE Reggie White 0.853
5. DE Mark Gastineau 0.785
6. OLB DeMarcus Ware 0.778
7. OLB Lawrence Taylor 0.772
8. DE Claude Humphrey 0.760
9. DE JJ Watt 0.758
10. DE Jack Youngblood 0.750
11. OLB Derrick Thomas 0.749
12. OLB Von Miller 0.731
13. DT Aaron Donald 0.728
14. DE Jared Allen 0.727
15. DE Chandler Jones 0.727
16. DE Coy Bacon 0.725
17. DE Dexter Manley 0.724
18. DE Al Baker 0.724
19. DE Harvey Martin 0.722
20. DE Joey Bosa 0.720

TJ Watt and Myles Garrett … Wow. Aaron Donald is the ONLY defensive tackle on here…

Rodrigue: Growing Rams have faced tough lessons all year, but in Arizona find joy too

Jourdan Rodrigue

https://theathletic.com/5091519/2023/11/26/rams-win-kyren-williams-sean-mcvay/

GLENDALE, Ariz. — Leave it to human happy-lamp Kyren Williams, the Los Angeles Rams’ blossoming star running back who had 204 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns Sunday in a 37-14 blowout win at Arizona, to embody a reminder of what playing football can mean.

Joy. Life, energy. Green grass, and a lot of it, churning underneath his feet.

“He’s just, he’s a really good football player,” said coach Sean McVay, beaming, after the game.

“He’s a really good football player. He loves competing. When you’ve got that natural, just, zest” — McVay gave the word its appropriate emphasis — “and enjoyment for going out there and playing the game, and then oh, by the way, you’re really productive! He’s doing a great job. … Kyren is just so conscientious. He loves to compete. He’s worked really hard. He’s worked really hard just to get himself back. To perform at that level was cool to see.”

Williams spent the last four games on injured reserve, and was out a total of five weeks with an ankle injury, because of the Rams’ Week 10 bye. Sunday, with his mom, sister, aunt, uncle and other family members in attendance at State Farm Stadium, as Williams broke off any one of his five explosive run or pass plays, you could almost see him grinning underneath his helmet visor from up high in the press box.

“This is really what I love to do,” Williams said after the game. “During those four weeks I wasn’t playing, I was still in it. I was still at practice. Still watching the film, still doing everything as if I was playing. … I’m not surprised, no, because this is what I love to do.”

When a run game works like the Rams’ own did Sunday, it leaks into every player on the offense and the play caller, too.

Williams’ energy balanced well with the steady production from No. 2 back Royce Freeman, a veteran who quietly worked his way into the position when Williams and previous No. 2 back Ronnie Rivers were hurt. Freeman had a touchdown off a 23-yard carry in the fourth quarter and totaled 77 yards off 13 carries (5.9 yards per carry) in the Rams’ 228-yard rushing effort.

Veteran tight end Tyler Higbee caught two touchdown passes, his first scores all season (and the irony was noted among those in the press box, as Higbee was mistakenly listed as “inactive” on the Rams’ official pregame list, before a team spokesperson rushed to correct the error). But backups Davis Allen (a rookie) and Hunter Long, who has missed most of the year since joining the team in the spring via trade, were especially activated in the blocking surface. Instead of No. 89 throwing himself on “sift” or “crash” blocks into the front side of a run play, Nos. 87 (Allen) and 84 (Long) caught some of that action, too. It added depth to what is already somewhat of a disguised play and took heat off of Higbee, who has struggled with his health at times this season. Allen also converted a crucial third down just a couple plays before Matthew Stafford hit Higbee for a touchdown.

“We wanted to make sure that we were cognizant of, ‘Hey, we have such trust in Tyler Higbee. He’s played so many snaps, but let’s also say hey, these (younger) guys have done a great job,’” McVay said. “(Assistant tight ends coach) Nick Caley does a great job. I thought Davis Allen and Hunter Long did a nice job stepping up. They got their work during the course of the week, and I thought their practice performance ended up translating to game reality today.”

With help from the linemen and tight ends, Williams was able to run in the style he prefers.

“Especially on the gap-scheme runs, with (the blocks) up to the linebackers, they were really staying tight, staying thick on the D-linemen, the three-tech, and allowing me to do what I do best, and that’s make a decisive decision based off that linebacker,” Williams said. “That’s what I was doing today, I was really just trying to manipulate the linebackers and follow the blocks of my O-line.”

Meanwhile, veteran receiver Cooper Kupp said that they could feel McVay get into a flow as the play caller that matched their own, stemming from the balance and productivity of their attack.

“When you run the ball like that, it makes everything else easier,” said Kupp, smiling. “I thought Sean did an unbelievable job matching up the run and the pass, the play-actions, the screens. I thought all of that stuff, the flow of that was really well done. Put us in some great positions to go out there and execute, keep the defense on their heels a little bit.”

Having depth and versatility in the run game meant that a passing game featuring a banged-up Kupp (ankle; Kupp limped off the field after the Rams’ first series but McVay said he’ll be OK), Puka Nacua (various injuries over the middle of the season) and Stafford (he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb prior to the bye week) did not have to be perfect to win.

Alongside his four passing touchdowns, Stafford threw an interception that was basically forgotten about by the time the game ended, and lead receivers Kupp and Nacua finished the game with a combined 45 yards off eight catches. Even Tutu Atwell, who flashed brightly with a 42-yard catch that set up a game-opening touchdown, and a crucial third-down conversion later in the game, rotated in and out of the lineup frequently as Stafford targeted eight players but saw much of the overall pass production out of the screen game.

“They were playing really deep to short on a lot of our play-action passes,” Stafford said, “really just trying to dare us to throw it down the field and just check it down. (Williams) did a nice job of making those plays into, if not efficient plays, explosive plays for us. Caught a couple screen passes and I thought our guys did a great job of getting out in front (as blockers). Some interesting looks where a tackle is expecting to block somebody (but) the guy drops (into coverage), they added it on to the screen and did a great job. A lot of mix. Dropback screen, play-action screen. Catching out of the backfield out of play-action. Whatever it was, (Williams) did a nice job.”

One of Williams’ big plays, a 24-yard catch-and-run down the sideline, featured young left tackle Alaric Jackson clearing space ahead of Williams at the start of the run, and rookie left guard Steve Avila finding all the blocking work he could while sprinting alongside Williams.

“Par for the course,” said McVay, smiling. “He’s done a great job in the screen game all year. I really think that (offensive line coach Ryan) Wendell does a great job as a whole, he was a pretty good player in the screen game. That was when you could throw low on people, back when (Wendell) was playing for New England. But I really think Steve is doing a great job. I thought that play in particular, Alaric Jackson did a great job of really being the first one out right there, (then) Steve. The screen game as a whole, that’s where you see Kyren’s production. Most of that was on screens today. Offensive line has been key and critical, and then Matthew does such an excellent job of being able to set that up.”

Let’s not forget the defense, either.

Rookie nose tackle Kobie Turner, who had two sacks Sunday, brought up a great point: When the Rams can sustain drives on offense, in part because of how effective they were running the ball, it doesn’t just give the defense a breather. It helps a very young group gain clarity about any necessary adjustments, too. Turner said the defense was able to log and react to each one of the 12 plays of the Cardinals’ first scoring drive, because the offense was staying on the field while the defensive players huddled with coaches over tablets.

“It feels really good, their first drive(s) of the game (were) really long drives, so we’re able to go through each one of those plays (on defense), talk adjustments,” he said, “and they’re still running the ball. It means a lot to be able to sustain some long drives, it gives us rest (and) allows us to be fresher when we go out there and get after the passer. Feels incredible. It gives you a lot of momentum, too, when you’re running the ball like that. You’re physically exerting your will on the other team.”

Armed with their own play-energy that has been consistent week over week, and the adjustments after an opening eight-point and 75-yard scoring drive, the Rams’ defense held Arizona to only 29 net yards in the first half after that opening drive. The race was on: By the time the Rams pulled defensive starters with 8:19 left in the fourth quarter, Williams had more total yards (204) than the defense had allowed the Cardinals’ offense overall (161 net yards).

For the second week in a row — not factoring in the garbage-time minutes with reserves that began halfway through the fourth quarter — the Rams’ defense has not given up a touchdown after allowing one on an opponent’s opening drive.

“Absolutely,” McVay said when I asked him if he can see the defense growing up in real time.

“And I think guys are playing with confidence,” he added, listing several key plays and players throughout Sunday’s game, including Turner, who rallied with his sack production after a penalty that allowed Arizona to successfully go for two after their opening-drive touchdown, and safety Jordan Fuller, who had four pass breakups (including on third and fourth down). “I’m really proud of those guys. I have definitely seen that over the last couple of weeks, and I think the coaching staff — you know, Raheem (Morris) and the rest of the defensive coaches have done such a phenomenal job. I’m proud of those guys.”

But that goes for the rest of the roster, too. This is a group of players who have faced highs (the season opener, the last time the Rams scored at least 30 points in a game) and lows (injuries, narrow one-score losses to opponents they should have overcome…and that dreadful day in Green Bay).

“We’ve had some tough, close losses where we’ve just come up short, and a lot of good opportunities to be able to establish and develop some grit, and continue to learn,” McVay said. “But they’ve been a fun, consistent group in terms of the energy that they’ve brought, all of the different things they present in terms of the coachability, the accountability. It’s awesome to see a lot of the work pay off … let’s keep doing that, because I do think there is something to be (said) about learning how to win.”

To slightly paraphrase Stafford, who praised the effort by his teammates over the last two weeks — both wins: It’s almost like something shifted in the overall group during a gutted-out and narrow victory over Seattle in Week 11. Instead of losing that close game, they won it. Their extra energy carried into this week, and maybe will keep its inertia.

“I think last week was a true testament to just the grit and fight that this team has got,” Stafford said. “Found a way to win a game without playing our best football (last week), with a bunch of guys banged up. … Got a little healthier this week, played a little bit better, a little bit cleaner football. Got to continue to get better.”

Added McVay: “We really challenged them coming off the bye to continue to stack blocks. Let’s see that development. Today was a step in that right direction.”

There have been a lot of blocks, a lot of lessons so far.

Adding a little joy to the mix helps, too.

Here's a great example of the run and pass coming together in the Rams offense. Nacua in motion and comes through the c-gap.

Instead of a run, it's play action. Key here is both look similar. Rams create a little confusion which leaves Higbee open underneath for the touchdown. pic.twitter.com/m3uSCccMYV

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) November 30, 2023