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(Ram43)
Rams at Cardinals: Full Preview of the Week 10 Matchup [www.insidestl.com]
Shane Grey
On Sunday, the St. Louis Rams will square off with the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium in a key NFC West matchup. St. Louis will arrive in Glendale with a 3-5 mark after winning two of their last three games. Arizona, meanwhile will enter the action with the NFL’s best record at 7-1.
How are the Cardinals Doing It?
When considering a myriad of statistical barometers, it would appear that the Cardinals are securing victories with smoke and mirrors. In breaking down the numbers, one would be hard-pressed to believe that Arizona is really sitting at 7-1.
Seriously, does the following look like the NFL’s best team to you?
Offensively, the Cardinals rank thirty-first in passer percentage, thirtieth in yards per carry and twenty-eighth in rushing yards per game. Defensively, they rank thirtieth in sacks, worst in passing yards per game, No. 25 in passer rating allowed and thirty-first in forced fumbles. In addition, they check in at just a so-so fourteenth in both scoring offense and points allowed per game.
So, how have the Cardinals managed to reel off the league’s best won-loss percentage this season when considering the above? As is often the case, numbers don’t always tell the entire story. For example, Arizona’s aforementioned last place passing D is probably at least a little better than it appears on paper.
“They’re getting up and teams are just throwing it and going two-minute,” Rams Head Coach Jeff Fisher explained this week. “They’re giving up plays just to protect the end zone and things like that. It’s very, very misleading.”
St. Louis quarteback Austin Davis essentially reiterated Fisher’s thoughts on the Arizona air D.
“I think stats can be very misleading,” Davis suggested. “Obviously, their record’s great so teams are down and they’re throwing the ball more late in the game. They’re softening up and giving up yards. We don’t look a lot at the stats. They’re definitely really good at stopping the run and we’re going to have to throw and complete the ball and do some things in the passing game.”
According to Arizona Head Coach Bruce Arians, much of their success boils down to knowing how to close out games. While the Rams have struggled to finish several contests that they could have won, the Cardinals consistently find ways to perform successfully late in the action.
“I think that we’ve played hard for 60 minutes and kind of found ways to win games,” Arians said in a conference call this week. “I don’t think we’re anything special, but we’ve managed to win ball games in fourth quarters. That’s very hard to do. I think they’ve learned that’s when games are won and lost. Most teams, it’s very hard to teach a team how to win. You find ways to do that and then you start believing that it’s going to happen.”
Cardinals quartback Carson Palmer echoed similar thoughts to Arians in regard to finishing games off.
“What we’ve done a good job at is beating the teams we’re supposed to and then we close games out against good teams. The last two years, we’ve really been a fourth quarter team.”
Avoiding and Creating Interceptions
Two of the major keys to Arizona’s success to the midway point of the docket has been its ability to avoid throwing interceptions — the fewest in the NFL with just two — and its propensity for securing picks — the second most in the league at twelve. Overall, the Cardinals are plus twelve in turnover differential, the second best such number in the category league-wide.
Offensively, Palmer’s quick release has been a contributing factor in their low rate of interceptions.
“We don’t hold on to balls now to see a guy come open, we’re throwing them open,” Arians said. “So the interceptions are down. That, and you quit forcing the ball to one guy and start spreading it around to eight or nine. He (Palmer) has done a great job of that and just taking what a defense gives him.”
Defensively, the Cardinals have corraled the NFL’s second most picks, something that certainly has not gone unnoticed by either the Rams head coach or the club’s quarterback.
“Well, they’re creating pressure and they’re making plays,” Fisher said. “They’re a good man-to-man cover team and everybody’s having opportunities to get their hands on the balls and they’re making the plays.”
“Yeah, I think a lot of their turnovers have come from pressure looks and guys just making bad decisions,” Davis suggested Wednesday. “I think we can do a good job of getting balls completed in those looks. There’s a lot of grass to run (after the catch). It’s kind of a high risk, high reward type of defense. So far this year there’s been a lot of reward.”
Davis, for his part, realizes he and his offense must do a steller job at protecting the pigskin.
“We’ve got do a great job of protecting the football,” Davis said, “and that starts with me making better decisions and the running backs holding onto to the rock and the receivers doing the same”
A week ago, a stingy St. Louis defense helped overcome Davis’ two turnovers in the week nine win. This week, however, the Rams likely will struggle to triumph if Davis again turns it over twice.
Will Davis Respond?
Speaking of Davis, how well will the Rams young signal caller bounce back from his worst start as a pro, one that culminated in just 105 passing yards, a paltry 44.6 rating and two picks?
At least according to St. Louis Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, he should rebound just fine.
“A couple weeks back when we were playing really, really well he was the same guy,” Schottenheimer asserted. “He’s the same guy now. He adjusts well. He sees things really, really well. On the interception last week, he said, ‘Hey I saw the guy, I thought I could get over him.’ The one (S Antoine) Bethea got, he just underthrew that one. Again, just very, very poised and he handles all the adjustments and things we do really, really well.”
As for what Arizona expects from Davis, if it is indicative of what their head coach conveyed, they are anticipating solid play from the Rams QB.
“I’m really impressed with Austin Davis,” Arians said. “I know a lot about Southern Mississippi, and when you break Brett’s (Favre) records you’ve done something special. I really think this kid has a great future. He can make every throw. He’s mobile, but he’s not looking to run, he’s looking to throw.”
Can the Rams Maintain Balance Vs. Arizona’s Run D?
More often than not, NFL offenses are at their best when they are relatively balanced. It makes them generally less predictable, helps keep defenses honest and aids in setting up the play action pass.
It came as no surprise, then, when Schottenheimer suggested that his St. Louis offense was most effective when it had a somewhat equal ratio of runs to passes: “We’re at our best when we’re balanced and when we can get the running game going,” Schotteneimer said.
Of course, maintaining a balanced approach may be easier said than done against the Cardinals run defense, a unit that is ranked second-best in regard to rushing yards allowed per game and third-best in terms of yards per carry relinquished.
One of the major challenges in putting together a productive ground game against Arizona is their frequency of putting extra players in the box.
“Number one, it’s an eight-man front,” Schottenheimer said.”They’ve got safeties down all around the line of scrimmage. They jam the front. The linebackers play as fast downhill across the line of scrimmage as probably anybody I’ve seen. It’s just an aggressive scheme. They move, they penetrate, they knock people back… which makes it hard to find running lanes.”
If the Rams are to get their run game going, it more than likely will again come via a diversified, back-by-committee approach, as Fisher has not named a starter there and spoke of utilizing any number of runners against the Cardinals.
Eying Ellington
Staying on the running back theme, Arizona’s Andre Ellington is a highly productive, do-it-all performer from the Cardinals backfield.
The second year Clemson alum is not only on pace to chew up over 1,000 yards on the ground this fall, but is also on track to reel in over 60 receptions.
While not in the same caliber of a Jamal Charles or Marshall Faulk, Ellington is highly versatile and cut from a similar cloth.
“They’re using him out of the backfield,” Fisher stated. “He free releases a lot. They create match-ups on linebackers and defensive backs. He’s got great quickness. Then they use him in the running game. He’ll bounce outside or cutback. (He’s) a lot like (Chiefs Rcool smiley Jamaal Charles.”
On Sunday, the St. Louis defense will have to account for Ellington on all downs and in all situations. Arizona will use him in any number of ways, and the Rams will have to be ready for the multifaceted back at all times.
Brown Is Ballin’
When the Cardinals drafted wide receiver John Brown in the third round of the 2014 NFL Draft, they surely couldn’t have hoped for much more than they have received in year one from the Division II Pittsburgh State product.
Through eight games, the 5’10” Brown has turned in four touchdowns, 24 catches and a 14.6 yard per catch average.
Brown, with 4.3 speed, already has a 100 yard game and a 75 yard TD on his brand-new professional resume.
To this stage, his play has certainly pleased his head coach.
“John is an explosive player,” Arians said. “He can take a short pass and take it to the house or he can just take the top off the coverage. But he’s fearless. I was shocked he dropped a ball over the middle for the first time last Sunday. It was like ‘Whoa. Maybe he is human for a rookie,’ you know? Because he has a very mature attitude, just like a five year vet when it comes to preparation already.”
His quarterback, Palmer, is just as impressed.
“John Brown, the young rookie, he’s just done a phenomenal job,” Palmer asserted. “He’s extremely smart. He’s come in and learned the offense really fast and it’s not a very simple offense, especially for a receiver that plays multiple situations. He’s come in and really just picked up everything quickly and asked the right questions and done the right things to warrant play time.”
Certainly, it hasn’t hurt Brown’s cause that he has been mentored and led by the example that is future Hall of Fame receiver Larry Fitzgerald.
“Larry’s just a true pro,” Palmer said of his veteran wideout. “He comes in and he works his butt off every day. He leads by example and shows the young guys what it takes to work and what it takes to be great.”
Fitzgerald, 31, is still highly productive and remains the go-to guy in the Arizona offense. To date, Fitzgerald has racked up 35 receptions, 14.7 yards per catch and two scores.
“Larry’s still very, very good,” Fisher said. “He has just a big catch radius that makes him so hard (to cover).”
Is Sack City Back for Good?
A week ago, the Rams more than doubled their previous season-long sack total of six by exploding with eight of them against the 49ers.
One cannot help but wonder if the suddenly resurgent St. Louis pass rush will continue to resemble their preseason #sackcity touting, or will they look more like the unit that was last in the league in sacks for much of the campaign?
Even though the Cardinals’ Palmer is not one of the more fleet-of-foot QBs the Rams will face, he is good at avoiding pressure and he’s been sacked the eighth least to this point of 2014.
“He’s really good in the pocket, he steps up and he’ll step up in either gap if you get the outside rush,” Fisher said. “He has a good feel for moving in the pocket. What he’s done for years is he keeps his eyes down field. The eyes don’t come off on the rush. His eyes are down field all the time. He’s got a natural, instinctive movement and flow in the pocket and that’s what makes him affective.
That’s why he’s not getting sacked very often.”
Palmer certainly isn’t an easy guy to successfully pressure, but St. louis needs to at least make him unfomfortable in the pocket on Sunday to disrupt the Arizona air game and possibly add an interception or two to the Cardinals league low total of just two picks.
