from Re-ranking the 2015 RB class: The Todd Gurley conundrum
Gregg Rosenthal
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000806514/printable/reranking-the-2015-rb-class-the-todd-gurley-conundrum
What happened to Todd Gurley?
A year ago at this time, one could have made a case that he was the best player from the 2015 NFL draft class. Now it’s debatable whether he’s even one of his draft’s top three running backs.
With all the focus lately on 2017’s “can’t-miss” running backs, I couldn’t stop thinking about how quickly our assumptions about college prospects and pros transform. Yet, often those views don’t change quickly enough, which is how the Browns were able to get a first-round pick from the Colts in exchange for former No. 3 overall pick Trent Richardson after Cleveland knew he was a bust.
It wouldn’t be easy to top the 2015 crop of runners for depth and potential. Gurley was supposed to be the centerpiece. Instead, David Johnson — the seventh back taken (86th overall) — is the player with the Hall of Fame start to his career. Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi have already rewritten early expectations as pros, while an explosive second tier of runners like Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and Thomas Rawls is gaining a foothold.
I went back to watch Game Pass footage of this entire special group of runners to see how they all have evolved and where they fit in today, arranging the backs into the tiers you see below:
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3) Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Originally drafted: Round 1, No. 10 overall.
The need to explain away Gurley’s disastrous second season is mystifying. The short version goes like this: The Rams’ offense was run by paste-eating middle schoolers, and Gurley had no chance. No further analysis necessary.
Gurley’s 278 carries tell a different story. At least four to five times each game, Gurley had daylight to work with. He often ran up the backs of his offensive linemen or was arm-tackled. If Gurley’s game isn’t about making defenders miss, then he’ll need to run through defenders more often. He simply didn’t show the same burst, second effort or power that he did in his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. The Rams coaching staff noticed, often taking him out of the game in key situations or failing to give him the ball late with the lead.
For a window into Gurley’s season, let’s travel to Seattle last December. On fourth-and-1 inside the Seahawks’ 10-yard line early in the game, Gurley got the ball on a pitch to the left. He had his choice of multiple lanes and elected to take on Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner, only needing to gain a few inches with a full head of steam. Wagner stood him up cold and eventually pushed Gurley backward with some help. It was an example of Wagner’s greatness, but Gurley also should have made the play.
Of course the season wasn’t all Gurley’s fault. The criticism of the Rams’ passing game and offensive line was accurate. Still, that’s not the point. Gurley was supposed to be a transcendent talent, the kind of player who should make his teammates look better. Try to imagine Adrian Peterson or Barry Sanders or even Corey Dillon carrying the ball 278 times with a 3.2 yards-per-carry average and only two runs over 20 yards, even with lousy offenses around them. Something was wrong.
Trying to explain Gurley’s down season: This is the part where it’s really tempting to play amateur psychologist and guess what was in Gurley’s mind or heart last season, to interpret those shakes of the head or the lackluster runs in garbage time. I went into this exercise hoping to see something positive from Gurley, but aside from his occasional light feet and graceful glide, it just wasn’t there. At his best out of the I-formation, Gurley was The Franchise, until quarterback Jared Goff — who is more comfortable out of the shotgun — came along as the first overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. How to split the difference is up to new coach Sean McVay.
McVay should help considerably by modernizing the offense. Gurley could bounce back on the strength of big plays as a top running back, and no one would be surprised. He showed that much talent as a rookie. This ranking is reflective of Gurley righting himself as a solid starter. But Gurley has to show himself to be a different player this year, to recognize that his sophomore slump was about more than his teammates. Otherwise, it will be time to trust what Gurley shows on Sundays over those scouting reports from the 2015 draft season.
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