Rams24/7@Rams24_7
Looking forward to the Rams game. For those worried about a trap game the Rams play well in early starts under McVay:

10am PT in Eastern timezone: 7-2
10am PT starts overall: 11-3

Week 6 Preview: Rams ready and focused for meadowlands matchup with Giants

J.B. Long

https://www.therams.com/news/week-6-preview-rams-vs-giants-2021-metlife-stadium

There’s a 2020 game I’ve thought about a lot this week, and I wonder if it’s crossed your mind, too.

No, not the narrow win over the New York Giants at SoFi Stadium. But rather, the crushing defeat at the hands of the New York Jets in Week 15.

I don’t mean to imply the Los Angeles Rams lost that day because they overlooked a winless opponent. Whatever the reason for falling to an inferior squad, it was just the latest NFL installment of “any given Sunday.”

As the Rams enter a stretch of three straight contests against teams with losing records, hopefully last year’s gut punch will serve them well. Because for the rest of the month, there are no undefeated showdowns. No prime time showcases. No division games. Just their desire to uphold the Rams standard, play to their potential, and pursue greatness.

Five games in the rearview mirror, and looking back, the start to the season was more draining than perhaps we appreciated in real time.

SoFi Stadium debut in front of fans; first road trip; defending Super Bowl Champions in town; NFC West opener against undefeated Arizona; Thursday Night Football in Seattle.

That mini-bye at 4-1 couldn’t have been better-placed.

Now, five more tests before the open date in Week 11, and only one of those challengers currently has a winning mark (the Tennessee Titans).

Take nothing for granted, yes. But bank wins if you’re able.

Do The Math

Our guest on this week’s Rams Revealed was former Ivy League calculus tutor Michael Hoecht, who articulated the team’s hunger in a way that left me convinced.

“Everybody in the film room goes into it saying, ‘We left a ton of plays on the field’,” the first-year defensive lineman told us while reviewing the Seattle win.

“There are so many things (in all three phases) we’re only going to continue to get better and better at. And we’re only going to get smarter and smarter at. We’re only going to hit harder and harder throughout the season.”

Head coach Sean McVay summarized the attitude going to New York this way: “We’ve got the wrong guys if I have to convince them that they need to be ready to show up in this three-hour window of time.”

Who Can Fill for DWill?

As you’ve likely heard, the Rams will be without starting corner Darious Williams for the next three games.

As McVay said this week, you don’t replace Williams with just one person. A few options come to mind as the Rams look to fill the void of a defensive player so valuable, they placed a first-round tender on him this offseason.

Over the next three Sundays, we may see Terrell Burgess effectively make his season debut in the slot. Or someone with veteran experience like Dont’e Deayon could be promoted from the practice squad to face the Giants, the franchise that gave him his NFL start. Or David Long Jr. could return to the lineup in pursuit of more moments like his season-opening interception against the Bears.

As the Rams piece it together at corner, they’ve got two invaluable advantages: Jalen Ramsey’s ability to fend for himself (freeing up coverage resources elsewhere) and the shot clock guaranteed by Aaron Donald’s pass rush.

Big (Black and) Blue

L.A. won’t get any sympathy from a Giants group missing running back Saquon Barkley, receiver Kenny Golladay, and linebacker Blake Martinez, just to name a few.

Their starting quarterback Daniel Jones – who’s enjoying a career season to this point despite the team’s woes – still has to clear concussion protocol to play, as well.

Going into Sunday, the Rams have a clear advantage on the injury report.

Unparallel Lines

Perhaps nowhere is the injury disparity more apparent than along the offensive lines.

According to PFF, the Rams front ranks among the top 10 in the league with their pass blocking, run blocking, and overall grades. ESPN likes them a lot, as well. That’s a direct result of their continuity, with the same five players making every start.

Conversely, the Giants lost center Nick Gates and left guard Shane Lemieux for the season in the first two weeks. They’ve have had five different players take snaps at left guard. And even as they get healthy at tackle, there’s indecision. Joe Judge reportedly intends to play Andrew Thomas, Nate Solder and Matt Peart in some form of platoon.

More Production Than Points

It’s not just the Rams offensive line that’s thriving. Every offensive position group has excelled.

According to Next Gen Stats, Matthew Stafford leads all QBs with +67.3 Expected Points Added this season. The group is hitting explosive plays, with more deep completions already this season than all of 2020.

The Rams lead the NFL in yards per play, and are one of the elite offenses according to DVOA.

Per NFL Research, L.A. is one of three teams (Cowboys, Chiefs) to have scored 20-plus points in each outing this season. Yet it feels like it’s only a matter of time before they put up even bigger point totals (the Rams are currently eighth in scoring).

No Prize for Longest Drive

There are only two areas I can identify that are lacking: red zone and starting field position.

The Rams are fifth in the league in opportunities inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (an admittedly arbitrary demarcation), but 22nd in converting those red zone trips into touchdowns.

And after five weeks and 16 touchdowns, the shortest of those drives is still 70 yards. In fact, the average touchdown drive length for the Rams in 2021 is a whopping 78.4 yards.

The fact they’re putting up more than 28 points per game despite not capitalizing on a single short field (or the benefit of a non-offensive touchdown) is wild.

Misery Loves Company

In defense of Matt Gay’s hiccups, Week 5 saw the most missed extra point attempts in NFL history (13).

The last two weeks, Gay has missed his first field goal try of the season, his first extra point as a Ram, and pulled a couple kickoffs out of bounds.

He appears on the injury report going to New York with some ankle trouble, but look for the Rams kicker to bounce back in the Big Apple.

Thriller Night

One other bit of NFL Research caught my eye. There have been 19 games so far this season with the winning score being registered in the last minute of regulation or in overtime, the most such games through five weeks in NFL history. Furthermore, eight have gone to overtime.

The Rams haven’t been involved in any of those.

Here’s hoping no late-game heroics are required to get out of the Meadowlands with a win on Sunday.

Zooey wrote:

Okay, so nothing about whether Stafford “likes” play action or not. That is apparently not the issue, or not the main issue, in any event. What this looks like is that McVay called more play action with Goff because he believed he HAD to. And with Stafford, he uses it differently because he can.

I’m not sure I see it that way. I think that play action is an under-used element of the Stafford Rams offense. I remember reading that he was good at it. (Don’t know when or where I read that, or, to be honest, I don’t even really remember if I read that).

The very vague correlation that seems to be foggily in the air right now is that Stafford has started slow a couple of times now, and the Rams use less play action.

And I don;t see it as a crutch with Goff. I think it’s more that Goff was very good at it so they used it, taking advantage of a strength.

zn wrote:

Stafford leads the league in EPA (0.35), according to TruMedia, and the Rams are tied with Kansas City at No. 1 in overall offensive EPA.

EPA Explained

* https://www.the33rdteam.com/epa-explained/

The terms Expected Points (EP) and Expected Points Added (EPA) have become a large part of the football analytics discussion. This brief explanation will go over what these stats mean, how they are calculated, and a few of the many ways they are used to analyze performance of NFL players and teams.

What is Expected Points?

Expected Points is based off the notion that not all yards gained in football are of equal value. For example, a 5-yard gain on third-and-3 increases a team’s chances of scoring much more than the same 5-yard gain on third-and-10. While both situations would reflect a gain of five yards in a traditional box score, the first would result in a first down and continue the drive, while the other would likely force the team to punt on fourth down. Expected Points attempts to quantify this difference in value by relating each play to how much it increases (or decreases) a team’s chances of scoring.

Based on historical data, a bunch of smart math guys calculated how many points an NFL team gains on average on a drive based on down, distance and field position.

Expected points increases as a team nears its opponent’s end zone and decreases on later downs. Expected Points can also be negative, meaning that the opposing team is more likely to score on the next drive than the team currently with the ball. This situation occurs mainly when a team is backed up against its own goal line or in a fourth-down punting situation.

What is Expected Points Added?

Expected Points Added, commonly referred to as EPA, is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation. For example, if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, its expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal, thus gaining 3 points, its EPA for that drive would be found by subtracting its expected points from how many points it actually gained, 3 – 2.5 or 0.5 EPA.

This same logic can be applied to individual plays. Say the Chiefs start with the ball first-and-10 from their own 25-yard line, where its expected points would be about 1.06. If Patrick Mahomes throws a 15-yard completion, making it first-and-10 on the KC 40-yard line, where the expected points is now 1.88, the EPA of that play would be 1.88 – 1.06 or 0.82. In other words, that completion increased the Chiefs’ expected points on that drive by just over three-fourths of a point. If instead of the completion, Mahomes was sacked for a 10-yard loss, making it second-and-20 from their own 15, the new expected points would be about -0.54 and the EPA for that play would be -0.54 – 1.06 or -1.6. This means the sack decreased the amount of points the Chiefs were expected to score on that drive by 1.6 points.

How is EPA used to Evaluate Teams?

There are many ways EPA can be used to evaluate NFL teams and players, and the analytics community is only beginning to scratch the surface of its potential. The most important aspect of EPA is being able to assign a point value to each play. Once plays can be related to how many points they produce, play-calling decisions and player performance can effectively be analyzed by how much they improve a team’s scoring chances. The same can be done for the defense, as their goal is to prevent EPA, so the more negative a team’s offensive EPA, the better the defense is performing.

The 33rd Team uses EPA to measure many aspects of team success and predict how matchups between teams will play out. Recently, EPA has been calculated for college football as well and the reach of these types of measurements is ever growing. Be sure to check out more of our stats content and find out how current and past NFL teams and players stack up vs expectation.

Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
Reconfigured Rams’ secondary over the next few weeks will be “by committee”, and open window for a few players to expand their roles.

Still wondering why there was no illegal man downfield on the double punt. Anything? —

Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
The Rams followed up on this quite a bit last week, including with screenshots of various angles sent to the league, a person with knowledge of that process told me, and really were just seeking clarity on how and why the initial call was overturned. For its part, the league believes everything was properly officiated. I’d bet this comes up at league meetings in the offseason, however.

When do you believe this defense will find its identity?

Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
This has to be the three-game stretch when they do it, even without Williams. I wrote this week about the explosive plays they’re allowing particularly in the passing game, and certainly without Williams, there will be questions to sort through. But the Rams also faced some of the league’s most explosive teams through their first quarter of the season, so now they’ve got a real chance to put everything together before the crucial month of November.

Sean McVay doesn't expect the Rams to make any "big splash moves" at the trade deadline like they have in the past https://t.co/htI3rq0xjG

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) October 15, 2021

Trade: Eagles are sending three-time Pro Bowl TE Zach Ertz to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for CB Tay Gowan and a 2022 5th-round pick, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/lUlic7y0Oa

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 15, 2021

Agamemnon wrote:

ramBRO

Yes, I know this video piece is about Robert Woods. But it’s hard to overlook the fantastic job that Henderson is doing in Pass Pro. The first clip shows great recognition on his part. Stafford initially directs him to protect the A Gap where the LB is showing blitz. But at the snap, Hendu immediately realizes that it’s a ruse and that the backer is dropping off into coverage. Almost instantaneously, he recognizes that it’s the other LB that’s coming. Henderson is able to get across the line to the B Gap to knock the blitzer off stride. Stafford is able to maneuver a little and deliver a strike to Woody.

Great play!

Matthew Stafford says the Rams are at their best when he’s spreading the ball around, so he’s letting defenses dictate where he throws. https://t.co/MozZab6Pau

— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) October 15, 2021

Everett to Flipper in the meadowlands! What a pass and catch! pic.twitter.com/2xSa0Apooq

— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) October 14, 2021

Sosa Kremenjas@QBsMVP
Don’t look now, but the Rams are second in the NFL with 108 pressures on the season (@PFF).

That defensive line is finding a way to step up.

Lindsey Thiry@LindseyThiry
Rams DL Aaron Donald banged his knee against another player in Seahawks game last Thursday and has some swelling. He is day-to-day, per a Rams spokesman.

Cameron DaSilva@camdasilva
Sean McVay says he was surprised by the Jon Gruden situation and he hadn’t seen that side of him.

Last year against the Giants, Cooper Kupp provided a spark for the Rams offense when they desperately needed it with this 55 yard touchdown catch and run. Kupp goes into this week against NYG averaging 104.6 receiving yards per game pic.twitter.com/jR8pFcIdWJ

— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) October 13, 2021