NFL Quarterback Tiers 2022: Allen, Herbert and Burrow Make Tier 1 Debuts

It’s a new era for Quarterback Tiers as 50 NFL coaches and executives have shaken up the elite ranks for 2022, the ninth incarnation of my annual survey.

Young guns Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow have joined the Tier 1 ranks, while a couple big names are conspicuously missing — including a certain quarterback the Seattle Seahawks traded to the Denver Broncos in a blockbuster deal recasting expectations for both franchises.

The panel placed 35 veteran quarterbacks into one of five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Aaron Rodgers, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as a unanimous Tier 1 selection.

The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL. More than one quarterback is featured for teams with unsettled starting jobs.

TIER 1

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers stands alone at the top, the eighth time in nine years of QB Tiers balloting that he finished no worse than tied for the top spot. He is the standard for Tier 1 quarterback play.

“I can’t wait to rate him as a 2,” a defensive coordinator said. “That will be like the favorite day of my career.”

Rodgers through the years has received 401 votes in Tier 1, seven in Tier 2 and none lower than that. Some who placed him in Tier 2 previously repented in follow-up conversations.

“Where is the flaw?” a defensive coach asked. “He can make every throw, he has got command of things, he can read defenses, he is challenging to go against because of the mental part of it.”

This is the sixth time in nine years Rodgers was a unanimous Tier 1 choice.

Rodgers beats the competition in two categories multiple voters cited: the ability to elevate his weaponry and in how he not only outsmarts opponents, but relishes doing so.

“(Tom) Brady has had the more decorated career with 10 Super Bowls and seven rings, but I will say this,” an offensive coach said. “Aaron Rodgers has helped elevate every player on that offense. Brady with N’Keal Harry did not elevate his game. Aaron has had Davante Adams, but he is still waiting for a first-round receiver, they have not had great receivers overall and he is still putting up major numbers.”

As for showing up opponents, Rodgers owns the most condescending smirk in the game.

“It’s not enough to make a good read and see a coverage rotation and throw where he needs to throw,” a defensive coach said. “He wants you to know that he got you and look at the sideline with that smirk. He is outsmarting you … always trying to catch you in a blitz and throw a little smoke out, or whatever. He’s just an extreme challenge to go against, beyond any of these other guys that have talent.”

2. Patrick Mahomes

A single contrarian voter prevented Mahomes from tying Rodgers at the top. That voter, a veteran defensive play caller, thinks there were times last season when Mahomes failed to read defenses the way top-tier quarterbacks should.

“We love Mahomes because of his unorthodox throws, not because of his natural pocket presence,” this voter said. “And when that disappears, that is when they lose games. I don’t think that is a 1. I think that is a 2. Nothing against the guy. I love the kid. But take his first read away and what does he do? He runs, he scrambles and he plays streetball.”

“This guy, he’s box office,” a quarterbacks coach said. “I mean, anybody would pay to watch Aaron Rodgers and him play. If you had the worst seat in the house, you would still go watch Patrick Mahomes play.”

Last season, defenses for the first time curtailed Mahomes’ ability to strike for explosive plays. The Chiefs gained more than 15 yards on 14.6% of Mahomes’ pass attempts where gains that long were possible. That ranked 19th among qualifying quarterbacks. Mahomes ranked first during the previous three seasons at 20.3%.

“If I’m playing the optimistic side, I say defenses caught up with them a little bit, they wanted a slow death and he was still on a throw-it-downfield mentality because he had 10 (Tyreek Hill),” an offensive coach said. “Without 10, he will dink and dunk, and they will coach him to that. He will complete so many balls this year because they will get his mind wired for that before the season. Moving Tyreek forced them to a mentality that they would have had to do anyway, and now it’s just easier. It is hard to sell that to a quarterback when you have 10 running around.”

A defensive coordinator said Hill was the No. 1 game-plan consideration when facing Kansas City, above Mahomes.

“It’s like they play NBA iso-ball and just try to get enough space for a matchup on (Travis) Kelce or a matchup on Tyreek,” another defensive play caller said. “If Mahomes has a quote-unquote flaw, I do not think he is the greatest at diagnosing, but he is so extremely talented with his arm, his release and the way that they run their offense, it is just pick your best matchup and go work that. If you’re a matchup-oriented team and you lose one of your top matchup guys like that, it is going to affect how you play. Maybe he has to adapt a little bit, but I think he has all the makeup to do it.”

3. Tom Brady

Quite a few voters think Brady, if isolated only for his on-field contributions, might now belong high in Tier 2. Only eight placed him there. The totality of what Brady provides is why only Rodgers and Mahomes stand above him heading toward Brady’s age-45 season.

“Oh, Brady is a 1, 100 percent,” a quarterbacks coach said. “He can carry that offense. He is that offense. He has an all-star team around him, but just look at how that team oozes confidence now that they have 12 back and playing. They are a contender again this year, and it’s all because of having him and just his mindset. Can they protect him? That is going to be the big question.”

Brady last season started every game and led the NFL in pass completions, pass attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns.

“You still have to give the dude a 1,” a defensive coordinator said. “He still has the physical skills, different than Peyton (Manning) at the end of his career. Tom is going to get you into the right plays and make the right decisions, and he can still throw it. He can win games.”

Pro Football Reference credited Brady with five game-winning drives last season, matching a career high.

“The playoff games were pretty good, but there were spells within those games where you go, ‘Ooooh,’ ” an evaluator said. “The Rams game, both games against New Orleans — certain teams know how to play him well, and he is not simply dicing up guys as much as you would think. He is still talented, but I think he has to have a full package to continue to sustain that success.”

Brady was second to Rodgers in Total QBR and in MVP balloting.

“The things that make him great aren’t going to age poorly — his command of everything, his knowledge and vision,” a defensive coach said. “But I do think there’s a wider arsenal of defenses available that are more effective against him. If you are just straight pressuring him, he’s going to murder you, and if you are just straight in coverages, he is going to murder you. We got him on some simulated pressures, which I think people are figuring out.”

4. Josh Allen

Allen surged into the top tier after narrowly missing last year. Tossing nine touchdown passes without an interception in playoff games against New England and Kansas City all but expunged from his record his playoff meltdown against Houston following the 2019 regular season.

“He has proven that he can handle big moments,” a personnel director said. “He still throws interceptable balls, but he gives his guys opportunities to make plays, and nine times out of 10, they are making those plays. You can see the maturity. He used to make really egregious throws. It creeps in every now and again, but he is a big-time passer.”

Allen became the ninth player in QB Tiers’ nine-year history to command Tier 1 votes on at least 75% of ballots. Rodgers has done it nine times, followed by Brady (eight), Mahomes (four), Drew Brees (three), Russell Wilson (two), Peyton Manning (one) and Ben Roethlisberger (one).

“Josh Allen is a better version of Lamar (Jackson), and I love him as a football player,” a defensive coordinator said. “I still think he is erratic as a thrower and so he doesn’t scare me the same way Rodgers does. But he’s ascending.”

This voter had only three players in the top tier. Some voters are stricter than others with their Tier 1 interpretations. The group overwhelmingly placed Allen in Tier 1, behind the only active quarterbacks to win Super Bowls and MVPs.

“Some guys you’ve got to just give credit for being big, talented guys that can overcome a lot of stuff,” an evaluator said. “He may not be perfect, but he’s so big and so talented that he carries the team. He is a freak. He is not going to expertly handle pure-pass situations, but he doesn’t have to a lot of times. He may have five guys hanging on him and complete it anyway.”

One potential concern: Brian Daboll’s departure from the Bills as offensive coordinator.

“It will be interesting to me to see if that changes things, because I think Brian did a really good job,” a defensive coach from the AFC East said. “I think he controlled it as much as Josh did. I don’t want to say Josh is going to be on his own, but I’m not sure he totally has that command yet.”

5. Justin Herbert

Herbert joins a short list of quarterbacks to reach Tier 1 before age 25. Mahomes, Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson did it after leading their teams to the postseason and winning there. Herbert pulled it off with a career 15-17 record as a starter and no postseason appearances.

“Man, I was so impressed with him live,” an offensive coach said. “He has a chance to do something special. He’s the best pure thrower of the three young guys (Herbert, Allen, Burrow). I didn’t realize he was that athletic. One of our studs was chasing him down and he got around him and was laughing at him the whole time. The competitive spirit, the athletic ability, I saw a fricking stud in our game.”

Combine some of Burrow’s accuracy with some of Allen’s size/athleticism and you’ve got Herbert.

“I think he’s the next guy, he is on his way, because the thing with him is, he’s not quite the passer, but he’s kind of like a bigger version of Aaron Rodgers,” another voter said. “When we played them, I was like, ‘Damn, I didn’t know this dude could move that well or he was this accurate.’ Five, six, seven years down the road, I think Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert will be the guys we’re talking about, the big three.”

No voter questioned whether Herbert could become a top-tier quarterback. Some did want to see him drive more team success before letting him borrow Dan Fouts’ gold jacket.

“It takes more time on task to truly be a top-tier guy,” a defensive coach said. “With those guys, it is like going to ‘Top Gun Maverick’ every single weekend because the stunts they pull are the equivalent of pulling 11 Gs and bending the air frame. It takes hours in that cockpit to operate that and not kill yourself and your team and crash the thing. When it is 17-0 at half, that is trying to land the thing in the Indian Ocean with 50 mph winds and 40-foot waves rocking the flight deck, and they manage to get it down or get it close.”

6. Joe Burrow

Burrow has started 26 regular-season games and four in the playoffs. He has made it through one season healthy. He also quarterbacked the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl after Vegas set Cincy’s win total at 6.5, fifth-lowest in the league. Voters love how he plays.

“Burrow is a young Tom Brady,” said a GM who placed Allen and Burrow in the top tier, but not Herbert. “I think Herbert has shown he can do it in doses. Burrow is a step ahead. I think his mind is a lot quicker than Herbert’s. Burrow wins with his brain, and he has had to, because he played behind probably the worst offensive line ever to go to the Super Bowl.”

Burrow’s accuracy, calm under pressure and willingness to stand strong in the pocket even when he’s taking punishment has earned admirers.

“This league is in good hands with the quarterbacks right now, and they’re in good places, with (coaches) who like to throw the ball,” a head coach said. “These veteran guys know that these colleges are throwing the ball more and they had better maximize their abilities, man, or they ain’t going to be doing it long, because the colleges are putting out better guys right now.”

Any concerns on Burrow?

“He got fooled on that fourth down in the Super Bowl,” a quarterbacks coach said. “He predetermines a lot of his quick game. They’ll spread it out and try to show him the picture. When you can change the look for him, I think the kid locks in and some of these guys. Once you get a book on them a little bit, you can make these guys struggle a little. I’m not saying this is a guy you are going to take off the map. The kid is a competitor. I’m just saying he clearly predetermines some things and until he grows out of that, he is a good 2 for me.”

A head coach who placed Burrow in Tier 1 explained that Burrow’s poor offensive line was a contributing factor.

“Joe reminds me of the West Coast Offense quarterbacks you always were looking for with the anticipation, instincts, ball accuracy, throwing guys open,” another head coach said. “You just don’t see that at a very young age coming out, and I’m talking particularly from the drop-back phase. I’m a Joe Burrow fan. I’d put a 1 on him.”

TIER 2

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

7. Matthew Stafford

Stafford commanded 18 Tier 1 votes, up from four last year. He remained seventh in the rankings because, while Stafford overtook Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson this year, he watched Herbert and Burrow race past him. Still, the 1.68 average for Stafford marked a Tiers-era best for him. He now stands about where he did heading into the 2018 season, after four seasons with Jim Caldwell.

“I think it’s fascinating,” an offensive coach said. “The whole thing with Stafford, you just felt like here is a guy with all the talent in the world and you get him into a situation with a good staff, a good team, and there’s some consistency there. I certainly was not surprised with how he performed. Any time the head coach is the play caller and you get some chemistry and are on the same page, that’s a huge, huge advantage.”

Stafford might have threatened the top tier if he hadn’t faltered later in the regular season as the Rams, thrilled to have a capable veteran quarterback, leaned into a dropback pass offense to a degree that seemed excessive, perhaps exposing Stafford’s upper limits. One voter cited those limits as his reason for not pushing Stafford into Tier 1.

“Run it, play defense and have a Tier 2 quarterback, you will win a lot of games with that,” a head coach said.

The 2021 Rams averaged 10.5 expected points added (EPA) per game on defense and special teams in the playoffs. That’s the fourth-best average among the past 20 Super Bowl winners, according to TruMedia. The Rams’ offense lost 2.5 EPA per game in the playoffs, second-worst among the past 20 Super Bowl winners. So, yes, it’s a team game. A good team helped Stafford after bad Detroit teams dragged him down for years.

“He still to this day has the best arm I’ve been around or seen,” a voter who was with Stafford in Detroit said. “Whether it’s with a system that suits him and a good partnership with the head coach and all that, a Super Bowl ring gets you an upgrade in my book.”