from https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47211204/playoffs-bears-packers-colts-jaguars-ravens-steelers

The three Week 14 first-place showdowns are the Chicago Bears (9-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (8-3) in the NFC North, Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) in the AFC South and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6) in the AFC North.

How critical are these divisional games? Since 2002, of the 159 teams that were leading their division through Week 14, when the NFL went to eight divisions, 139 of them won their division. That’s 87.4%.

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NFC North: Bears at Packers (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox)

Chicago Bears
Overall record: 9-3
Division record: 1-2
NFC North position: First
Odds: Win division (+175), make playoffs (-270)

FPI with win: Win division (59%), make playoffs (92%)

FPI with loss: Win division (20%), make playoffs (67%)

How did the Bears get here? The Bears have won five straight, including a defining 24-15 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday that legitimized their résumé. Chicago is built on the NFL’s No. 2 rushing offense (153.8 yards/game), an opportunistic defense that leads the league in takeaways (26) and turnover margin (plus-17, no other team is better than plus-9). Caleb Williams’ growth under coach Ben Johnson was clear as Williams led five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter/overtime. It’s a critical part of why the Bears have pulled off several late-game rallies to boast a 6-1 record in one-score games.

QB situation: Johnson clarified his comments about the Bears “winning in spite of our passing game, not because of it,” so it wouldn’t be construed that he’s unhappy with Williams’ play. Johnson was pleased with how Williams managed the game against Philadelphia, but the quarterback’s accuracy issues are concerning. Williams is last in completion percentage (58%) and completion percentage over expectation (-9%), and his five interceptions have come against zone coverage. The Packers’ defense has run zone on 69% of opponents’ dropbacks this season (third highest in NFL).

Injury update: The Bears’ defense will get a much-needed boost at linebacker. T.J. Edwards was back at practice this week for the first time since breaking his hand against the Bengals on Nov. 2 and does not carry an injury designation for the Packers game. The Bears will also have linebacker Noah Sewell back in the fold, which will go a long way toward how the Bears can scheme against Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ run game. Wide receiver Rome Odunze will miss the first game of his NFL career because of a foot injury that he’s been dealing with throughout the season.

Key to winning Sunday: Chicago’s run game has been at its best on the road, with season highs in rushing at Cincinnati and Philadelphia. After dual 100-yard rushing performances from Monangai and D’Andre Swift, the Bears should lean heavily on their ground attack to set the tone and control the clock the way they did against the Eagles. With injuries along Green Bay’s defensive line, notably to tackle Devonte Wyatt, the Bears’ offensive line comes to Lambeau Field with the edge up front. — Courtney Cronin

What they’re saying: “The significance of it at the moment isn’t much,” tight end Cole Kmet said of the Bears currently being the NFC’s No. 1 seed. “Look, I know how this all is. We’re on the so-called mountain top right now, but those things change quickly week to week. … It’s on us to stick to our process on stuff. But to see where we’ve gone as a team, specifically offensively from Weeks 1 and 2 to now, it’s really cool to see and see our identity take shape, especially in the run game.”

Green Bay Packers
Overall record: 8-3-1
Division record: 3-0
NFC North position: Second
Odds: Win division (-140), make playoffs (-900)

FPI with win: Win division (70%), make playoffs (95%)

FPI with loss: Win division (25%), make playoffs (76%)

How did the Packers get here? Unlike last season, when they went 1-5 in NFC North games — with the only win coming on a last-second blocked field goal attempt in Chicago — the Packers have taken care of business in the division. The Thanksgiving win at Detroit gave them the season sweep of the Lions for the first time since 2020. This is the end of a three-game stretch of all division games, which started with the Week 12 win over the Vikings. After consecutive home losses to the Panthers and Eagles in which they combined to score only 20 points, Packers coach Matt LaFleur found something on offense. In the three games since those two losses, they have the fourth-most offensive points per game in the league.

QB situation: This is Jordan Love’s time of the year, and his four-touchdown game against the Lions last week might be the start of another strong stretch to close the season. In his three seasons as the Packers’ starter, Love has played some of his best football when the calendar turns to November. In 24 career regular-season games in November or later, Love has combined for 37 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 65.8% of his passes. Love has the NFL’s highest Total QBR (73.3) in games played in November or later over the past three seasons.

Injury update: The Packers have lost three starters to season-ending injuries: tight end Tucker Kraft (knee), center Elgton Jenkins (leg) and, most recently, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (ankle). They could get a boost from the return of receiver Jayden Reed, their leader in the past two seasons in catches and receiving yards. Reed hasn’t played since Week 2 because of collarbone and foot injuries.

Key to winning Sunday: The Packers have a top-10 run defense, but it will be tested mightily by the Bears’ running back duo of Monangai and Swift, who each rushed for more than 100 yards in last week’s win over the Eagles. Wyatt’s injury against the Lions won’t help, but the Packers will have to keep the Bears from running all over them. “It’s going to be a great challenge,” LaFleur said, “because they’re the best in the league right now in doing it.” — Rob Demovsky

What they’re saying: Packers WR Christian Watson on the magnitude of the Packers-Bears game: “It’s huge, it’s huge. I said it earlier in the week, it’s a chance for us to take the top spot in the NFC North, and that’s step one for us in terms of our goal for this season. So it’s big-time for us.”