What is an 'average' QB-rating these days?

This topic has 6 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 8 years ago by Agamemnon.

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November 1, 2016 at 8:21 am #56472

wv
Participant

Looks like 2/3’s of the NFL QBs who have started plenty of games, are over 90.

qb-ratings:http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING

Sure looks like 90 is the new 80 in QB Ratings. Seems like 90 is now kinda ‘average’.

R.Wilson is at 91
Wentz is 92
Cousins, Rivers 93
Alex Smith, Kessler 94
Mariota 95
Luck, A.Rogers 96
A.Dalton, B.Hoyer, S.Bradford 98
BigBen, Dak P, 99

D.Carr 100
Stafford 103
Brees 104
M.Ryan 115
Brady 133/Garropolo 117

Cam Newton 80

Case Keenum 77

Flacco 75
——————–

Granted, Keenum has been playing better than he was early on. Still.

w
v

November 1, 2016 at 8:43 am #56473

zn
Moderator

wv wrote:

Case Keenum 77

Granted, Keenum has been playing better than he was early on. Still.

w
v

It has reached the point now where if you average in the 1st 2 games for any Rams offensive stat, you end up with a distorted picture. With some stats, dramatically so. In this case, there’s nearly a 30 point difference between the 1st 2 games & the next 5 games.

CK qb rating
last 5 games: 88.6
season avg all 7 games: 77.5
first 2 games: 59.75

November 1, 2016 at 8:54 am #56474
— X —
Participant
All I know is, with Case, they need to just attack the intermediate zones.
No more short passes, and no more ridiculously deep passes.

And here’s a quick look at how Wentz’s QB Rating came to be (so far).
- This reply was modified 8 years ago by -- X --.
You have to be odd, to be number one.
-- Dr Seuss
November 1, 2016 at 9:53 am #56480

zn
Moderator

— X — wrote:

All I know is, with Case, they need to just attack the intermediate zones.
No more short passes, and no more ridiculously deep passes.
.

Just some thoughts to add to yours.

According to those numbers, CK is 5 of 13 on passes of 31 yards or more, which is 38.5%—which is good. The way I do this, on passes of 31 yards or more 30% is decent, 40% is good, 50% is extremely good. I got that template just from doing this for a few years, where now and then across the years I would compare different qbs on downfield completion percentage.

As you know, there’s a fallacy out there about Keenum–that he can’t throw long. Actually of course what he can’t do is throw medium with velocity. If he can loft a touch pass in the 11-20 or 21-30 range, medium and deep medium, he’s fine. But as we all know he can’t throw lasers–the lower the trajectory past 10 yards, the less effective he gets. But he can throw long, he just has to add air to them.

I think the long ball is just part of their game. Another stat. Stats LLC does big passing plays, or passes of 25 or more yards (though this one, unlike espn splits, includes RAC and is not purely in the air). According to that stat Keenum is 6th in the league (here: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=118&type=Passing ).

I agree that they need a medium ball but then that will be Goff and probably not Keenum.

November 1, 2016 at 10:39 am #56486

— X —
Participant

zn wrote:

As you know, there’s a fallacy out there about Keenum–that he can’t throw long. Actually of course what he can’t do is throw medium with velocity. If he can loft a touch pass in the 11-20 or 21-30 range, medium and deep medium, he’s fine. But as we all know he can’t throw lasers–the lower the trajectory past 10 yards, the less effective he gets. But he can throw long, he just has to add air to them.

That whole ‘lacks velocity’ thing that fans throw out doesn’t resonate with me too much. There are times when a bullet pass would be needed, but it’s not essential for a QB to have that in order to be successful. When I used to watch Manning, I didn’t see anything even remotely resembling velocity. He just knew exactly where a QB and defender would be at any point in time. So while Keenum lacks velocity, it’s not that, per se’ that gets him in trouble. It’s that, coupled with less than elite anticipation that holds him back. Also, I’ve seen enough passes out of Case where he hits Britt (mostly) in the seam where there was enough zip on it to qualify as a “tight window” completion. He has a lot of all the little things you like in a QB, but they don’t come together in a way that his weaknesses are offset by his strengths. Shame, really, because he’s got the moxy you want.

Lotta moxy.

You have to be odd, to be number one.
-- Dr Seuss

November 1, 2016 at 10:44 am #56488

wv
Participant

zn wrote:

wv wrote:

Case Keenum 77

Granted, Keenum has been playing better than he was early on. Still.

w
v

It has reached the point now where if you average in the 1st 2 games for any Rams offensive stat, you end up with a distorted picture. With some stats, dramatically so. In this case, there’s nearly a 30 point difference between the 1st 2 games & the next 5 games.

CK qb rating
last 5 games: 88.6
season avg all 7 games: 77.5
first 2 games: 59.75

———–
I agree, but 88 aint what it used ta be. 88 aint gonna get it done. At least not if you are gonna toss Pick6’s along with yer 88s.

I think you agree with that.

w
v

November 1, 2016 at 2:22 pm #56514

Agamemnon
Participant

The following grid shows Quarterback Rating and its components for all QBs with over 100 passing attempts for the season.

Agamemnon
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