from https://www.patriots.com/news/game-preview-patriots-at-rams

SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS
By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run – Edge: Rams

The challenges the Patriots offense have faced this season have been plenty. A new quarterback trying to learn the system alongside young and unproven pass catchers with a rotating cast of offensive linemen certainly all qualify. But the unit will face its biggest test this season Thursday night against the Rams defense. That is certainly true for the run game, which bounced back with a solid effort last week against the Chargers. Damien Harris got off to a great start in LA on Sunday and wound averaging 5 yards per carry en route to an 80-yard effort. Cam Newton also chipped in with a pair of rushing touchdowns. But things figure to be significantly more difficult against the Rams third-ranked run defense, which allows just 93 yards a game and 3.9 yards per carry, which is tops in the league. Aaron Donald gets much of the credit for that, and rightly so, but he is not alone. Sebastian Joseph-Day mans the middle while veteran Michael Brockers plays the end opposite Donald in the Rams 3-4 front. Linebackers Troy Reeder and Kenny Young fill effectively on the inside. This group was outplayed two weeks ago against the 49ers before bouncing back with a strong effort against the Cardinals vaunted ground attack on Sunday, limiting Kyler Murray (15 yards) & Co. to only 92 yards rushing. The Patriots offensive line must meet the physical challenge up front and allow Harris some success early in the game. Otherwise the Patriots may be forced to play catch up through the air.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Rams

Los Angeles isn’t much easier to throw against, and the numbers back that up. The Rams secondary of Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill, John Johnson and Jordan Fuller has been excellent all season, limiting passing attacks to 198 yards per game (third in NFL) and 5.5 yards per pass play, which is tops in the league. Newton has endured his share of struggles, and even in last week’s blowout win he still managed just 69 passing yards while completing 12 of 19 throws. He’ll need more from Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers against the stingy Rams defense, which can also generate heat on the passer without blitzing. Los Angeles has 36 sacks on the season, led by 11 from Donald and 7 from the rejuvenated Leonard Floyd. The Rams ranks fifth in the league in sacks per pass play with a success rate of 8.3 percent. The key for the Patriots will be to avoid negative plays on first down and maintain the ability to be balanced. If Newton is forced to play from behind and has to throw downfield into this secondary, it could be a long night. But if Harris can keep the Rams honest and Newton can use his legs to move the chains like he did against the Chargers, the Patriots chances will improve dramatically.

When the Rams run – Edge: Patriots

The Rams have a solid running game using a host of different ball carriers. Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers all have at least 80 carries and 357 yards rushing this season while averaging better than 4 yards per carry. As a team the Rams are tied for fourth in the league, averaging 124 yards per game on the ground, but in terms of average they rank 11th at 4.1 yards per carry. The Patriots run defense turned the corner last month against Baltimore and hasn’t looked back. The effort up front has been much better since the Ravens game as the addition of players like Akeem Spence has given some help to Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler and Ja’Whaun Bentley in the run-stopping department. The Rams trio isn’t flashy but its straight-ahead style has been productive and important for Sean McVay’s offense in its quest to stay balanced in order to utilize the play-action game. Those top three ball carriers have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns with Brown and Henderson leading the way with five each. The Patriots cannot allow the Rams to get going on the ground because that’s what McVay’s offense in predicated upon. This will be a big test for the suddenly rejuvenated front, but based on their recent play it’s one they should pass.

When the Rams pass – Edge: Rams

Jared Goff remains one of the league’s most enigmatic quarterbacks. On most weeks his numbers represent one the league’s better passers. Take Sunday in Arizona as an example when he competed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards and a touchdown as the Rams piled up 38 points against the Cardinals. But a closer look shows how McVay likes to use Goff, calling for many play-action boots and quick, short throws that are often dictated by rhythm and timing. In Arizona the vast majority of those passes travelled less than 10 yards in the air and Goff was comfortable throughout. Then there are games like the week prior against San Francisco when Goff was pressured early and often and tossed a pair of interceptions while completing just 19 of 31 passes for 198 yards. The Patriots are quite familiar with that Goff because he’s the one they saw back in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta. Goff was flustered by the Patriots pressure and ever-changing coverages and never got going that night as New England took home title No. 6. Stephon Gilmore was a big part of that success and he will need to continue his strong play if a repeat is in order. With J.C. Jackson (leg/hip) and Jonathan Jones (neck) nursing injuries, Gilmore will need to lead the way on the back end. The Rams have a deep crop of receivers led by Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson. They also have some talented tight ends in Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee. It’s the kind of diverse group of weapons that has given the Patriots trouble (think Houston a few weeks back), but the difference may be the ability to get pressure. New England has turned in back-to-back strong efforts in the pass rush, and that will be vital on Thursday night. If Goff gets comfortable it could be a long night.

Special Teams – Edge: Patriots

It would be hard for any unit to put forth a pair of better games than the Patriots have on special teams over the last two outings. Three long punt returns (one for a touchdown) and a lengthy kick return, a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown and a handful of punts downed inside the 10, none better than the one Justin Bethel kept out of the end zone in LA against the Chargers on Sunday plus a 50-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. That’s a season’s worth of special teams highlights for most teams but the Patriots did all that in wins over Arizona and the Chargers. Given the momentum these huge plays have generated it’s impossible to not give New England the edge here. Nick Folk’s streak is now up to 20 straight field goals while Jake Bailey continued his Pro Bowl-level punting. The Rams have struggled in the kicking game with Matt Gay representing the team’s third kicker of the season. Steve Sloman, Kai Forbath and Gay have combined to miss six of 21 field goals and four of 36 PATs, so the Patriots have a decided edge in there. Gunner Olszewski is on fire as well with three huge returns including a touchdown in his last two games. The Rams have also been susceptible to returns so that’s an area to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, Rams punter Johnny Hekker remains one of the best in the business.

aeneas1

lest some of us forget, it hasn’t exactly been a shit-show whenever goff’s been pressured, regardless of what talking heads have aped…

The @Patriots caught the @RamsNFL off guard in the 2018 Super Bowl. LA Coach Sean McVay said that could happen again Thursday but he's learned a thing or two from the previous go-round. From NFL Now @nflnetwork. pic.twitter.com/DELq69ANdE

— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) December 8, 2020