Orlovsky identifies the key to the Rams upsetting the Packers
Dan Orlovsky foresees the Rams’ defense causing offensive problems for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

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https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=30698322

Packers-Rams roundtable: Matchups to watch, score predictions and more

By Matt Schneidman and Jourdan Rodrigue

https://theathletic.com/2324291/2021/01/15/packers-rams-score-prediction-matchups/?source=emp_shared_article

There’s no better way to start the divisional round of the NFL playoffs than with the league’s best offense against the league’s best defense.

It’s Packers vs. Rams from Lambeau Field on Saturday afternoon, a heavyweight tilt headlined by some of the sport’s biggest stars: presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers, the likely Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, and possibly the game’s best at their respective positions in wide receiver Davante Adams and cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Ahead of the game, Rams beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue and Packers beat writer Matt Schneidman went back and forth on everything you need to know.

1. Now that we actually know who will start at quarterback this week for the Rams, is having Jared Goff under center an advantage for the Rams, or an opportunity for the Packers?

MATT: I’ll say this: the Packers don’t care who’s under center, or at least that’s what they’re saying. Matt LaFleur said the team essentially prepared all week as if Goff would start, so it’s not like they have to play preparation catch-up before Saturday. I think it’s a great opportunity for the Packers, not just because of Goff’s thumb but because he’s not very mobile. Everyone is talking about Green Bay’s offense vs. the Rams’ defense, and rightfully so, but the Packers’ defense has been on fire recently, especially in holding the Titans to just 14 points in Week 16. So it’s an opportunity not only to take advantage of a pocket passer who might be uncomfortable in the cold with a less-than-100-percent throwing thumb, but also to make a statement that it’s not just one side of the ball that everyone should be hyping up.

JOURDAN: If I’m the Rams, I do worry about Goff’s turnovers this season (17), and especially as he returns from a Dec. 28 thumb surgery. Goff said that other than a small bit of contact soreness, his throwing hand feels like it’s back to functionality and he can feel his touch has returned. If I’m the Packers, I try to keep him out of rhythm by mixing pressure looks. (Goff has done well in the back half of the year against blitz pressure, but still struggles against a four-man rush.) Where I think I see a bit of a spark in Goff is his experience in the postseason, and he’s clearly a little salty these days after sitting out at the start last week against Seattle — perhaps by the design of head coach Sean McVay.

2. How might the matchup of Packers receiver Davante Adams and Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey play out?

MATT: Everyone is intrigued to see how much Adams and Ramsey actually line up across from each other. It’ll be a fascinating chess match because, while the Packers may try to scheme Adams away from Ramsey, the Rams can just as easily scheme Ramsey toward Adams. The Packers receiver said this week that he might watch a little extra film on Ramsey because he’s a “super elite” cornerback, but Adams relies more on his ability to get open regardless of his opponent because he (rightfully) feels he’s just that good. Adams can operate just as effectively outside as in the slot, and his get-off, route-running and hands are as good as anyone. I’ll give the slight edge to Adams, but I wouldn’t be surprised if, when they are matched up, it goes the other way.

JOURDAN: I don’t foresee Ramsey “shadowing” Adams on 90 to 100 percent of his routes, like the “island” corners of the past. The Rams do play a lot of zone, and rely on stout, aggressive Nos. 2 and 3 cornerbacks Darious Williams and Troy Hill to step up when those coverages change and Ramsey isn’t necessarily big-on-big. But I do see him moving with Adams on at least 50 to 70 percent of his routes, and think this will be his toughest assignment of the year — and the Rams’ too, considering how much the Packers excel at working Adams into space and into advantageous matchups.

3. Where might the Rams be vulnerable? Where might the Packers be vulnerable?

JOURDAN: The Rams are especially vulnerable in the red zone, where, prior to Saturday’s win at Seattle, they had only scored touchdowns on 22.2 percent of their visits. There are next to no weak spots on their defense, but they have been bitten in the past when teams go with heavy play-action against them. As Sheil Kapadia and Ted Nguyen of The Athletic wrote this week, the Rams’ defense ranked 14th (estimated points-added per play) against play-action but were the league’s best passing defense when opponents didn’t use play-action. On special teams, the Rams have found a reliable kicker in Matt Gay, who was added to the roster in Week 11 and has missed only two field goals in 19 tries, and has hit all of his extra points. But the Rams’ punt- and kickoff-return coverage units have been wildly inconsistent all year, and absolutely are points of weakness.

MATT: The Packers are extremely vulnerable on special teams. This season, they’ve lost a fumble on a kick return and on a punt return, and allowed two punt-return touchdowns. They ranked 31st in the league in the regular season with 4.8 yards per punt return, and punter JK Scott wasn’t much better. Mason Crosby, though he made all 16 of his field-goal attempts, missed four extra points. These miscues haven’t come back to bite the Packers because their offense and defense have been good enough, but another one of those costly mistakes in a close game against the Rams could end the Packers’ season.

4. If you had to bank on one star player carrying his team on Sunday, who would it be and why?

JOURDAN: It has to be the Ramsey/cornerbacks combination. It just has to be. Adams is a guy who can break a game wide open if given even a millimeter of wiggle room, and the Rams know it. They’ve also depended on Ramsey to smother, and both Hill and Williams to put points on the board via turnovers, and this has been the biggest boost for them in a season in which a McVay-led offense often has looked weirdly discombobulated and has struggled to end drives with touchdowns.

MATT: I’ll go with Aaron Jones. He’s flown under the radar this season because he didn’t score 19 touchdowns like he did a year ago (he scored 11 this season), but he’s been really solid. He finished fourth in the league with 1,104 rushing yards, but didn’t seem to get the love that Aaron Rodgers and Adams did, and understandably so. It’s very much “pick your poison” with this Rams defense because they can stop the run and the pass so well. I know all of the attention will be on Adams and Ramsey, but the Packers can win a game on the ground, too, and Jones is just as good catching passes out of the backfield as he is running between the tackles. That arsenal has allowed him to take over games in the past two seasons, and it’s what makes him capable of doing the same on Saturday.

Aaron Jones rushed for nine touchdowns this season. (Dan Powers / USA Today)
5. Is the Packers’ home-field advantage legit? Over the years, Green Bay has proven it can be, but in other pivotal playoff games, the Packers have fallen flat. Does it really matter? Also, for the first time this season, the Packers will have more than a few hundred fans in the stands. What role will they play, if any?

MATT: I don’t think the cold and the fans will provide a massive home-field advantage, but there’s no denying both will play in Green Bay’s favor. In the last five seasons, Rodgers has played the entirety of 10 games when the kickoff temperature has been at or below freezing, as it figures to be Saturday. The Packers have won all 10 games, with Rodgers throwing 26 touchdowns and one interception. Maybe too much is made of a Los Angeles team struggling in cold weather, but the cold shouldn’t be too bad and even if it is, I don’t think it would be a game-changer. As for the 8,000 to 9,000 fans who will be in attendance, they’ll provide a welcome game-day atmosphere boost, but I don’t expect the noise to provide much advantage to the Packers’ defense when Goff and the Rams are operating their offense.

JOURDAN: The Rams will approach this week like “being cold is a mentality,” instead of addressing the actuality that “cold” is a physical state of being, but statistically this offense in particular has struggled in cold weather. In his two career games in sub-freezing temperatures, Goff has thrown zero touchdowns and five interceptions, with a 16.4 quarterback rating. One interesting note, however, is that the cold should not be a factor for a player like Aaron Donald, who is going to play while still healing from a ribs injury suffered last week. Donald likely will have a heat pad and some extra protection around the affected area so he can keep his mobility and limit pain.

6. What might be an under-the-radar advantage for both teams?

JOURDAN: I expect Donald to be as Donald-y as possible despite the injury. But where the Rams have shown under-the-radar growth is in their overall defensive line rotation, which features lesser-known names such as Morgan Fox and Sebastian Joseph-Day. Fox has a career-high six sacks, two defended passes and a forced fumble, while Joseph-Day especially has excelled in stopping the run and has become a stalwart in those packages. Those two, along with veteran defensive lineman Michael Brockers and outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, showed they could hold down the fort when Donald missed the bulk of the second half against Seattle.

MATT: The Packers’ run defense might carry the “soft” label in some capacity until they make a Super Bowl because of what happened in last season’s NFC Championship Game, when the 49ers ran for 285 yards, including 186 before contact. But that unit also just held Derrick Henry about 22 yards below his per-game rushing average, and David Montgomery to only 69 yards on 22 carries, after he had averaged 105.8 rushing yards per game in his previous five games. Kenny Clark, newly acquired Damon “Snacks” Harrison and Dean Lowry will need to continue their strong showings against the Rams and Cam Akers, who’s averaging almost 100 yards per game on the ground in his last four contests. If recent history is any indication, I think coordinator Mike Pettine’s front can do it.

7. What’s your score prediction, and why?

MATT: 28-24 Rams. The Packers’ kryptonite the last two seasons has been defensive lines that can consistently pressure Rodgers. It was the Chargers and 49ers last season, then the Buccaneers this year. Without first-team All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, the Packers still have a very good offensive line, but I’m not sure if it can hold up for 60 minutes against Donald and Co.

JOURDAN: 20-17 Rams. This group is getting salty at the right time. I don’t think Goff is going to dazzle, exactly, but if he can take care of the ball the Rams have a shot because, I’m telling y’all, this defense is badass. They’ll also need a touchdown on that side of the ball to win this game.