from https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/09/29/nfl-mailbag-chiefs-worries-panthers-steelers-patriots

From K1SZN2021 (@KSzn2021): Do you see the Cardinals somehow beating the Rams in week 4 to stay undefeated?

If it were in Arizona, I’d think hard about it. But the Rams are playing too well, and that game is at SoFi Stadium. So I’m gonna stick with Matthew Stafford & Co.

Football brings people together 💙@jalenramsey gives an inspiring fan who is battling cancer an awesome surprise 💪 #CrucialCatch pic.twitter.com/IuOpx5OcsL

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 1, 2021

Cornell@gqscholar
Imo Rapp is the biggest reason why Morris will have a hard time continuing to duplicate Staley succes in the offense. JJ > Rapp. Fuller isn’t playing at the same level as last yr either.

SeattleRams@seattlerams_nfl
The Rams were watching Kupp since 2015, when he was an underclassman All-American receiver and record-setter at FCS school Eastern Washington

Blaine Grisak@bgrisakDTR
A win tomorrow could distance the Rams from the Cardinals. Next four games:

Rams – SEA, NYG, DET, HOU
Cardinals – SF, CLE, HOU, GB

Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
The Rams waived safety JR Reed and elevated OLB Obo Okoronkwo from the 21-day window to the active roster, per team.

TurfShowTimes@TurfShowTimes
I hope Brian Allen continues on the trend of good play because man it’s been fun to watch.

from https://theathletic.com/2852495/2021/10/02/2021-nfl-odds-lines-picks-expert-predictions-for-the-week-4-including-bucs-at-patriots-and-steelers-at-packers/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams – 4:05 p.m. Sunday

The Rams won the biggest games of the year to date, beating the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, 34-24. Matthew Stafford outdueled Tom Brady, throwing for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Los Angeles led by multiple scores for much of the second half, and its defense registered six tackles for loss, including Aaron Donald’s first-ever sack of Brady. The Rams made their statement in the NFC; now they’ll look to do the same in their division against the Cardinals. Los Angeles opened as 5.5-point favorites.

Arizona continues to quiet offseason skeptics during a 3-0 start. The Cardinals beat the Jaguars 31-19, scoring 21 unanswered points to avoid the upset. James Conner ran for a pair of touchdowns while Kyler Murray added a third, and Byron Murphy returned an interception for a score, one of four takeaways by the Arizona defense. To get to 4-0, the Cardinals will need to snap an eight-game skid against the Rams.

The Thursday Night Football win over Arizona in 2012. If you followed the Rams at the time, you remember how this game felt. It was a good night to be a fan! The defense was on an absolute tear in this game as they tallied 9 sacks on Kevin Kolb #MobSquad pic.twitter.com/UbMe6IO3TQ

— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) October 2, 2021

The vast majority of NFL experts are picking the Rams to beat the Cardinals in Week 4. https://t.co/x4BUUACR7l

— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) October 2, 2021

I know that if you're not vaccinated you're automatically discounting anything that Fauci says, but he is reporting a good set of stats. Delta is 1000 times more contagious than Wuhan, and 37% of even mild cases have organ damage.https://t.co/auX5LIHeMp

— Gail McGowan Mellor (@authorpendragon) October 2, 2021

Eight games… we’ve lost 8 games in a row to the frickin’ Rams. How do we beat this team? Can we?

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2021/9/29/22699896/how-do-we-beat-the-ing-rams

It’s Rams Week—or, as it has been known for the past four years, Losing Week. As all Cardinals fans must know by now, we have not beaten the Rams since they hired Sean McVay back in 2017. They’ve outscored us 251(!) to 91 in that span, or about a 31-11 ass-kicking every game, including two shutouts.

Things have been a bit closer since Kliff and Kyler took over here in the desert, but not by much—the average loss has *only* been about 30-17. Hey, small progress!

Here’s the thing, though—most of those games have come against Jared Goff, who’s about as mediocre as they come at QB. But he’s been exiled to Detroit and replaced by Matthew Stafford, who sure looks like the league MVP at this (early) point for a 3-0 Rams team that is a true Super Bowl contender.

But this is a new year and the Cardinals are also 3-0 with Kyler playing his way into the MVP conversation. If we’re going to beat the Rams, this Cardinals team with an impressive offense and stout defense looks like it could do it.

So: How, exactly, are we supposed to beat this team that has been running roughshod over us for years and are favored by 4.5 points at home on Sunday? Let’s take a look at the unit matchups (offense vs. defense) and find out.

Cardinals Offense vs. Rams Defense

The Redbirds boast the #2 offense in the league by yardage (in the top-10 in both rushing and passing), and are tied for the #1 scoring offense (34.3 PPG) with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers… who the Rams just squashed. This unit really seems to be clicking in Year 3 of the Kliff and Kyler show with the second-highest yards per play in the league (6.8), although we haven’t exactly faced the toughest slate of defenses (TEN, MIN, JAX). If there’s a weakness or two here, it’s Kyler’s concerning propensity for INTs (4, which is behind only struggling youngsters Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow) and performance on 3rd down, where we’re just 11/31 (35.5%, #23 in the league).

The Rams heralded defense lags at #20 in the league in yardage, but is #10 in points against, which makes sense when you realize they’ve been ahead most of the time in their games. The yardage splits confirm this, with the Rams D at #25 against the pass but #11 against the rush. To put it another way, they’ve faced the third-most pass attempts but the sixth-fewest rush attempts. But only 2 of the 131 pass attempts they’ve faced have gone for a TD, compared to 3 INTs (good for #8 in QB rating against). So this bend-not-break unit actually hides a stingy, opportunistic pass defense. Not good news for Kyler and Co. That said, their rush D has allowed 4.3 YPC and 4 TDs on the ground, so perhaps going more Ground Raid than Air Raid would be a good idea. Finally, the Rams have struggled a bit on 3rd down, with teams converting at a 45.7% clip, but they button up on 4th down, allowing just 1/7 conversions. Go figure. Those stats could easily come into play on Sunday.

Edge: Although the Cardinals offense looks like it’s taking a leap to elite status this season, you still have to give the edge to the Rams here. They’ve consistently stymied us in recent years no matter who is under center, and we have yet to prove we can score against them. I could easily see a couple of Kyler picks on Sunday.

Cardinals Defense vs. Rams Offense

Vance Joseph’s defense sits just outside the top-10 in yardage and scoring, ranking #11 in both. The yardage splits are of interest. Our pass defense is #8 in the league, including #10 in QB rating against and a tie for #4 in sacks. But our run defense is one of the worst in the league so far, ranking at #29… despite bottling up Derrick Henry in Week 1. (Both Minnesota and Jacksonville racked up 150+ yards on the ground against us.) Overall, this is a solid unit that’s played well against some decent offenses… although nothing like the Rams’.

On paper, our defensive strengths and weaknesses match up well against this Rams offense. The Rams have the #6 passing offense on the arm of Stafford and his instant chemistry with Cooper Kupp, but their running attack is all the way down at #27. That’ll happen when you lose a your top two RBs. But this is still the #3 offense in yards per play (6.7) and scoring (31.7 PPG). They also limit turnovers (just two on the season). I’m sure McVay would like to get more out of his running game, but this isn’t an offense built around 1,200-yard seasons from Todd Gurley anymore. This is Stafford’s show, and they have the whole league watching.

Edge: Again, although our defense is playing well, you have to give the edge to the Rams again not only because of recent history (McVay just has our number) but because of how Stafford has completely reshaped this unit. McVay finally has a QB who can fully execute his offense, and the league—especially the Cardinals—need to watch out.

Other Factors

I wanted to mention two other points of interest quickly. The first is penalties. Surprisingly, the Cardinals are actually middle of the pack (#16) in penalties after 3 games with 20 flags, and they haven’t been too damaging, as we’re only #25 in penalty yards (157). At the risk of stating the obvious: if the Cardinals have any chance of pulling off the upset, we need to limit penalties. The only thing is… the Rams aren’t going to beat themselves. They have committed just 7(!) penalties on the season for just 55 yards, both tops in the league. This is just a disciplined, well-coached team.

The other point is time of possession. There’s a definite disparity here, with the Cardinals ranking #6 in the league (32:42) and the Rams ranking #25 (27.48). These numbers are a function of a few things. For one, the Cardinals run the ball better, and two, the Rams score so damn quickly. But, and again I’m stating the obvious, keeping the ball out of Stafford’s hands as much as possible is a smart idea. (Albeit one that hasn’t worked for any of the Rams’ opponents yet.)

Final Thoughts

After looking over these stats/matchups, here’s the picture I’m seeing: These are two of the best offenses in the league, and both defenses are better against the pass than the run. The Rams are the more polished, disciplined team, but the Cardinals are improving in that aspect. I do see the Rams as the better overall team, but not by much. The 4.5-point spread implies about a 1.5-point advantage for the Rams on a neutral field, which sounds about right.

So: Can the Cardinals finally end their 8-game losing streak at the hands of Sean McVay and the Rams? Sure they *can*. This is the best version of the Kliff and Kyler show that we’ve seen, and Vance Joseph is doing yeoman’s work with the defense. I’m fully ready to take back much of my past criticism of Kliff and Vance if this team is a true contender.

But to be a true contender, this team needs to beat the Rams. So: *Will* the Cardinals beat the Rams on the road on Sunday?

I’ll once more state the obvious: It depends on how they play. DUH. But what I mean is it depends on, I think, how our offense attacks the Rams defense. If we show up in Los Angeles and try to turn the game into a track meet, airing it out and hoping Kyler can outduel Stafford, I think we lose. Potentially hard. Bruce Arians and Tom Brady—only the defending champs—just tried that last weekend and lost by double digits. That’s not, I think, how you beat this team.

But the Cardinals have always had a strong run game under Kliff, kind of ironic for one of the early proponents of the Air Raid. From the numbers/matchups I’m seeing, the way we win this game is on the ground. That limits the potential for back-breaking turnovers and keeps the ball out of Stafford’s hands. Of course we’ll take our shots downfield—we’d be stupid not to—but that shouldn’t be options 1A and 1B.

Instead, I hope we see liberal doses of Chase Edmonds and James Conner pounding the rock, and a season-high rushing total from Kyler, which is just 31 yards. If he can get to 50 or so and Edmonds/Conner can combine for 100—or 150+ total—I like our chances. If the run game gets shut down or we abandon it, I think we come home with our 9th-straight loss to the Rams.

I hope we “Ram It” down their throats all afternoon and end that ignominious streak. It’s time to make a statement, Cardinals.

Warren Sapp went gaga when talking about Aaron Donald; says he’s the best one-on-one pass rusher of all-time on the inside

"He’s the best thing I’ve ever seen." https://t.co/98Qf0wTeUG

— TurfShowTimes (@TurfShowTimes) September 30, 2021

didn't realize Stafford went trick shot no-look on the TE screen to hold Lavonte David pic.twitter.com/vLv4yRDEgl

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 28, 2021

Interior pressure without Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski? Brady has little chance pic.twitter.com/Sph71mZqxZ

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 27, 2021