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49ers vs. Rams: A galvanization around Jimmy Garoppolo criticism — 10 observations and our predictions
Not surprisingly, Jimmy Garoppolo has been in the chaotic spotlight in this buildup to the NFC Championship Game. Criticism, praise, self-perpetuating and endless debate — it’s all raged in the Garoppolo discourse, perhaps stronger than ever.
And that’s saying something.
The quarterback’s story, of course, is compelling. Huge questions remain at the most important position, and that only fuels a raging fire. Is Garoppolo’s tenure with the 49ers coming to an end? And if it is, what will its final act look like?
And if the final act is indeed happening this season, will it come this Sunday or will it wait for Super Bowl LVI, two weeks later?
The 49ers are one victory away from that stage, the grandest one there is. It’d certainly represent an appropriately climactic finish line for the frenzied narratives swirling around Garoppolo for the past calendar year.
But the Super Bowl is still merely a dream. The 49ers must deliver over at least the next 60 minutes — in a must-win Week 18 game against the Rams, it took longer than that — to punch their ticket. And Garoppolo will again be a central figure in that effort, which kicks off Sunday afternoon against Los Angeles in SoFi Stadium.
His 49ers teammates recognize that, and several of them have taken to social media in a response to the hailstorm of noise. Former 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman went first, tweeting his support for Garoppolo during the wild-card game against Dallas two weeks ago. Rookie QB Trey Lance endorsed that message. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk and safety Jaquiski Tartt chimed in this week.
Then, on Thursday morning, it was star 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel’s turn.
Kraxy how y’all have so much to say about our quarterback…. Check His Win Percentage…. Okay I’ll Wait. Pure Winner @JimmyG_10
— Deebo (@19problemz) January 27, 2022
The 49ers, led by tight end George Kittle, were also very vocal about crediting Garoppolo in the immediate aftermath of the divisional-round win over the Packers.
Leading up to their season’s biggest moment, are the 49ers galvanizing as a team around their veteran quarterback, who’s been playing hurt since that first dramatic road victory over the Rams?
“It shows what our guys think of him,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday. “And it also shows our guys probably are on social media. They probably feel a need to stick up for him. I know his social media probably hasn’t been that great, so I’m glad they’re sticking up for him because what they say is the truth.
“Jimmy is one of the main reasons we’re here. He’s done an unbelievable job. People don’t give him enough credit. Yeah, we win as a team, and that’s why he doesn’t always have the same stats that some of these MVP candidates have, but Jimmy’s a very good quarterback and he doesn’t worry about any of that stuff. He doesn’t worry about social media. That’s why he’s a little similar to me; he probably doesn’t have as much of an idea about that stuff.
“And he never really changes, and I think that’s what people respect the most about him. He’s gone through some ups and downs while he’s been here, like most quarterbacks do, but he’s the same guy. And that’s why people, first and foremost, respect him as a human, as a person. And then the way that he goes and battles on the field, everyone knows how tough he is, everyone knows how hard he’ll compete running with the ball, and our guys also know he can throw pretty well, too.”
1. Injury and health report: Left tackle Trent Williams, who didn’t practice all week because of an ankle injury suffered against the Packers, is officially listed as questionable. The 49ers will take that decision all the way up to Sunday. Williams missed the Week 18 game against the Rams, during which the 49ers also took the decision up to game day, with an elbow injury.
“Trent’s adamant that he’s going,” Shanahan said Friday. “He was last time, too. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t (play). But I was surprised last time. I was also surprised he finished the game with Green Bay.”
If Williams can’t play, second-year offensive lineman Colton McKivitz will again start at left tackle.
Running back Jeff Wilson Jr. is also listed as questionable with an ankle sprain. Cornerback Ambry Thomas (bone bruise, knee) is off the injury report.
For the Rams, left tackle Joseph Noteboom is listed as doubtful, so Andrew Whitworth will take back his starting spot there. Receiver Van Jefferson and safety Taylor Rapp are questionable.
2. Just like last time, the Rams enter this game with very few statistical weaknesses. Their efficiency profile, which also now includes playoff victories over Arizona and Tampa Bay, shows that the run game is the biggest issue.
Rams DVOA profilePHASE DVOA RANK 11.7%#733.6%#5-9.7%#18-12.1%#4-8.3%#3-17.2%#63.6%#427.3%#4The 49ers, who might have the best run defense in the NFL, held the Rams to 2.4 yards per carry in the last meeting. That allowed their pass rush to tee off on Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Notice that L.A., unlike the Packers, has a very competent special-teams unit. The 49ers obviously delivered in that phase of the game last week, but Sunday poses a bigger challenge in the third phase of the game.
3. The Rams apparently took offense to Kittle calling the Week 18 matchup a “body-bag game.” That became bulletin-board material for L.A., and Rams players even used it as a way to taunt Kittle before the 49ers came back from a 17-0 deficit to win 27-24 in overtime.
Ahead of this rematch, the Rams have been doing some confident talking.
“(Kittle) came out and talked about the body-bag game last (time), and he put us in one,” Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris said this week. “Now it’s our time to pay him back.”
Star Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald went a step further.
“This is a different type of football here that’s going on this week,” Donald said. “This week, my mindset is there’s no way we’re going to lose this game. We have to play four quarters. We have to find a way to finish, and I know we’re going to do that.”
4. The 49ers have beaten the Rams six straight times, a streak that dates to the 2019 season. Garoppolo has been the quarterback for five of those games, and Nick Mullens helmed the position in a victory at SoFi last season.
Even more notable is the 49ers’ success against L.A. this season. They’ve played nine quarters of football against the Rams (that includes overtime of the recent meeting) and controlled seven of them. L.A.’s biggest success came in the first half of the Week 18 game, after which it led 17-3.
Over the other seven quarters of play — the rest of that regular-season finale and the Week 10 meeting — the 49ers have outscored the Rams 55-17. The 49ers averaged 6.2 yards per play over that stretch compared with only 4 yards per play for L.A.
5. How can the 49ers avoid the struggles that put them in that 17-0 hole to begin that last trip to SoFi?
Better pass protection is key. With Williams out of that game, McKivitz struggled at left tackle, especially early. He allowed four pressures on the contest, and the 49ers didn’t stabilize offensively until Garoppolo led a drive that netted a field goal before halftime.
The 49ers will face another daunting challenge if McKivitz and Tom Compton, two backups, are their starting tackles against a ferocious Rams front featuring Donald and edge rushers Von Miller and Leonard Floyd.
But the team is confident that McKivitz, if needed, will again be able to settle into his role.
“He had really good plays, he had some bad plays when he played,” 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel said Thursday. “But the biggest thing is he stepped in for as good as a player that exists and we weren’t talking about him. We weren’t worried about him all game. As an offensive lineman, it’s kind of like referees at times — no news is good news. And for us to be able to operate at a high level against, I’m just telling you this is as good of a pass rush and as big of a challenge that there is.
“There’s nowhere to hide in the game of football, and we saw, ‘Hey, he’s been taking care of his business and growing,’ the last time we played the Rams.”
6. Samuel is emerging into a superstar, and perhaps the Rams triggered some of this season’s explosion. Remember that Donald pretended he didn’t know who Samuel was after the 49ers’ first win over L.A. in 2020.
Though Samuel always runs exceptionally hard, he does seem to deliver added thump whenever he plays the Rams. A big gain on a screen pass in the recent meeting even saw Samuel run more than 10 yards while an L.A. defender, clinging for a tackle, nearly stretched his undershirt to the turf.
NFL leaders, YPRR (PFF)RECEIVER YDS PER ROUTE RUN 3.192.942.812.722.59Samuel trails only the Rams’ Cooper Kupp in receiving efficiency, and the 49ers again plan to also deploy Samuel as a running back. The Rams typically use roving cornerback Jalen Ramsey against Samuel in pass defense, but alignments at running back have worked to compromise that strategy and L.A.’s defense.
A concern, of course, is the added bruising that inevitably comes with using a player at the running back position. But the 49ers believe Samuel is built to handle the load.
“This is uncharted territory for all of us, the coaching staff and the player,” McDaniel said. “And it’s something that you kind of feel your way through. … This is a different player. He’s not a receiver. He’s a football player at the receiver position who also can play running back, and we treat him as such, and he would have it no other way.”
7. On Thursday, 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa also praised Samuel.
“Deebo is a savage football player,” Bosa said. “There’s nothing more to it. He’s a beast.”
Bosa also noted that the 49ers’ wideouts, a group that includes Jauan Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk and Mohamed Sanu (freshly activated off injured reserve), pack a physical punch that’s helped fuel success against the Rams.
“Usually receivers are prima donna guys who don’t want much contact,” Bosa said. “But the receiver group here … they don’t bring in guys with that mentality. They bring guys who want to block and earn the right to catch balls.”
8. L.A.’s receivers, of course, are also a force to be reckoned with. Kupp, especially, is one of the best in the game. He nearly broke Calvin Johnson’s NFL single-season receiving record with 1,947 yards in the regular season. Counting the playoffs, Kupp has eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark. He delivered a 183-yard performance to help push the Rams past the Buccaneers last week.
Kupp’s output this season included a seven-catch, 118-yard performance against the 49ers in the finale. That was Kupp’s best career outing against San Francisco. He even beat safety Jimmie Ward, who’d shut him down in previous matchups.
How will the 49ers defend Kupp this time? Nickelback K’Waun Williams will play after missing the Week 18 contest. Since Kupp lines up in the slot frequently, expect Williams to see much of that assignment — with plenty of safety help, of course.
9. The 49ers’ biggest defensive weapon, though, is their front seven. Linebackers Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair are playing their best football of the season. Perhaps that’s one reason former Saints coach Sean Payton was so complimentary of the 49ers during his farewell news conference this week.
“They’re the team that Tampa was a year ago,” Payton said, referring to a Buccaneers squad that caught fire late and won the Super Bowl last season.
That Tampa Bay team had an excellent set of linebackers operating behind a ferocious defensive line.
The 49ers’ front features a dominant Bosa and a surging supporting cast that includes Arik Armstead, Arden Key, Samson Ebukam, Jordan Willis and others. The unit is deeper than the team’s ferocious 2019 D-line, and it’s peaking at the right time.
The 49ers registered 13 QB hits the last time they saw Stafford, and that pounding changed the game. Stafford opened 15-of-16 but, as he grew more rattled in the pocket, completed only six of his final 16 passes. He tossed two interceptions in that decisive stretch.
“I think with the pass rush and just overall, our guys just continued to get better at working together,” 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans said Thursday. “So when we work our stunts, our games, just collectively as a unit, guys just continue to get better. And it’s just a matter of just getting reps.
“And we have a lot of new guys we added to our team, and it goes to Samson and also Arden inside as well. So those guys just had to get more familiar, more comfortable with what we’re asking them to do. And I think now they are comfortable and you see the pass rush just being more effective now.”
10. Here’s one more comment from McDaniel to whet the appetite for Sunday.
“Guess what? On Sunday, the Rams are going to give their best shot. They’re one of the best football teams in the world,” McDaniel said. “But how fun is that to just say, ‘OK, let’s go give it our best shot’? And we feel like we can play and beat anybody.
“But guess what? So do the Rams. So it’s awesome to be a part of. It’s the coolest thing in sports, and it’s why professional football and specifically the championship games are so cool.”
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49ers vs. Rams predictionsWINNER SCORE SEASON RECORD Matt Barrows
30-279-10David Lombardi28-2711-8Matt Barrows: The 49ers largely have been built organically. The Rams have been built like an All-Star team. That seems like it will be an important distinction in crunch time of an NFC Championship Game. It certainly was the last time these teams played, and Los Angeles had a 17-0 lead late in the first half. When it got tighter late in the game, the team that had been to the Super Bowl two years earlier and that had been banished to Arizona together last season had the mettle and resilience to close out the game. My prediction is that Sunday’s game will follow a similar course.
David Lombardi: Somehow, someway, the 49ers will find a way. They’ve demonstrated that they’re tougher than the Rams, and it helps that they should essentially have home-field advantage at SoFi. In Week 18, 49ers fans comprised the majority of the crowd. Ticket sales data — 43 percent of StubHub’s sales have come from Northern California zip codes, as opposed to 20 percent last time — indicates that this majority might be even stronger on Sunday. Prepare for jet-engine noise under SoFi’s roof and the 49ers’ eighth Super Bowl appearance
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