Sean McVay didn’t hold back, saying he feels like the Rams are “wasting plays” when trying to run the ball https://t.co/wif8r1FuSg

— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) November 1, 2022

Cody Alexander@The_Coach_A
A lot has been made about the #Rams “soft” zone coverage & how it has led to struggles in the 1st half of the season

Let’s take a look…

First, let’s put some context to this:

The #Rams are a Cover 3 based defense

They run a variation of Cover 3 on about 59% of their snaps

Cover 3, played w/ ZN CBs can leave a defense susceptible to underneath throws, especially to the outside flats

In reality, the #Rams’ D is not playing *that* poorly

@fboutsiders has them w/ a DVOA that ranks 13th overall, 4th against the run, & 19th against the pass

According to @espn, LAR is 3rd in Pass rush win rate

???? So, yes, coverage *is* the issue

The #Rams have only given up 9 passing TDs so far

That ties them for 10th in the league

But, they also rank 23rd in completion %

& the #Rams are first in the league when it comes to limiting explosive passes

They aren’t allowing them…

Why the concern?

The issue is volume of yards & where they come from

QB’s understand that when they play the #Rams, the underneath routes will be open

LAR is a top 10 team in blitz rate, but they give up a lot underneath

Let’s take a look at the #49ers game…

Here is a look at Jimmy G’s passing chart against the #Rams…

An overwhelming majority are under 20yds

This is because of how LAR plays their zone coverages

8 of Jimmy’s 25 passes went over 10 yds

Looking at the yards after receptions,

& you see a bigger picture

Both TEs & the RB (McCaffery) had 142 yards after they caught the ball (CM had 60!)

That is ~62% of the yardage!

Here is how the #49ers attacked the #Rams:

>RB option routes on Safeties from depth or ILBs
>Push routes to the flats
>Slants away from the 3 WR side (5-Out), attacking the soft area behind the 3-Dropper
>”Gift” flat pass under coverage
>Early-down PA suck-up

All of these are by design & attack the #Rams’ bend-don’t-break coverage mentality

Though it may be concerning for fans, LAR’s DC (Morris) has made a concerted effort to play ZN

It’s part of the system

???? LA only runs C1 ~7% of their snaps

Why?

Personnel

Playing man would make sense for the #Rams

They have an elite pass rush & one of the better CBs in the #NFL

So why not play man?

The design of the defense is for the Safeties to play ZN coverage & occupy space, not a man

Plus, hey give up 16+ YPR in C1 ??

In order to play man, you need a Ni & a DS that can play man coverage

???? The DS on the TE & the Ni as a slot

The issue is offenses feast on this

Even the #Cowboys, who ran C1 ~67% of their snaps in ’21 are playing it much less (~22%)

No team is over 36%

What’s the real issue?

It is a combination of the offense struggling, giving opposing teams more snaps

…& the changing tides in the NFL

Teams are now used to seeing top-down coverages & are taking advantage of a defense that gives them space underneath

A 5yd run is 5 yds, but a 5yd pass can turn into 10, 15, 20+

Should the #Rams play more man coverage, or at least tighter ZNs?

Maybe…

But it changes the overall philosophy of the defense, & wholesale change in the middle of the season is never a good thing

3rd quarter, niners just went up 17-14, this is how the rams respond on the next drive, 2nd & 7, what is this, what is this supposed to be? pic.twitter.com/0glHF0auyx

— roberto clemente (@rclemente2121) November 1, 2022

I'd trade 40 first-round picks to get a new duo at guard https://t.co/ecoZsqN2Kk

— Sosa Kremenjas (@QBsMVP) October 31, 2022

It's hard to explain how Donald moves, but it's unlike everyone else playing DT. The ball being gone the second the QB's foot hits 6 yards hides how insanely fast Donald wins here. pic.twitter.com/DFQGchX2Nc

— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) October 31, 2022

Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
Rams did solid job “manufacturing” run in lieu of traditional run game in H1. Eventually SF made them pay for it w/adjustment in H2 that also made life harder on receivers. Can’t have one element without the other if a team adjusts.

Bad day to have a bad day for Rams defense, too. Ethos of defense as intended means it *should* be able to shape-shift while still capping pass explosives. But neither adjustments nor execution matched that. Irony is ethos should = malleability.

I think the misconception (certainly saw it today) is in how aggressive they play certain covgs vs how those *should* in intended philosophy be able to tighten and match and change. Pass rush huge in allowing that. Argument I make is what is *possible* w/in scheme and why or

why not possible at times for current group to execute that way, what the factors are in that (yes including coaching and adjustments and yes including personnel and execution). It’s just not one thing at all times, it’s usually a few things at once – on good plays and bad plays.

This was a bad loss, and a sign that the Rams should maybe hold onto their draft picks for now https://t.co/JzKxPlfX6p

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) October 31, 2022

top 10 defenses headed into wk8
offensive points allowed

#1 bills
#2 cowboys
#3 broncos
#4 rams
#5 eagles
#6 niners
#7 bucs
#8 bengals
#9 giants
#10 bears

— roberto clemente (@rclemente2121) October 30, 2022

From https://www.espn.com/nfl/preview/_/gameId/401437815

49ERS PLAYER TO WATCH: RB Christian McCaffrey played a limited role last week a few days after joining the Niners following a trade from Carolina, but he should have a bigger role this week. McCaffrey gained 62 yards on 10 touches from scrimmage in his San Francisco debut. McCaffrey had 69 yards rushing and 89 yards receiving two weeks ago against the Rams while with Carolina.

RAMS PLAYER TO WATCH: LT Alaric Jackson will make his first career start protecting Matthew Stafford’s blind side. The second-year lineman from Iowa looked more comfortable when he moved over from right guard after Joe Noteboom sustained a season-ending injury to his Achilles tendon against Carolina, but the disruptive San Francisco defensive line will present a tougher test.

KEY MATCHUP: 49ers TE George Kittle vs. Rams S Taylor Rapp and Nick Scott. Los Angeles has actually limited Kittle recently, totaling seven grabs for 34 yards in the past two meetings after he had been averaging 98.3 yards with five touchdowns in the previous seven. But with injuries to the San Francisco receiving group, he should be a bigger part of the game plan, testing Rapp and Scott in coverage.

KEY INJURIES: San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring), FB Kyle Juszczyk (finger) and DT Arik Armstead (foot, ankle) are all out. … Niners FB Kyle Juszczyk (finger) and DT Arik Armstead (foot, ankle) are expected to be sidelined. … CB Jason Verrett (knee) was activated from the PUP list this week and could play for the 49ers. … Rams C Brian Allen (knee) is set to return after missing the past five games. … WR Van Jefferson (knee) will make his season debut. … RB Darrell Henderson Jr. (illness) will play despite missing practice Wednesday.

49ers vs. Rams predictions: Two weeks later, Christian McCaffrey is back in L.A.

By David Lombardi

https://theathletic.com/3737808/2022/10/28/49ers-rams-predictions-christian-mccaffrey/

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Less than two weeks ago, Christian McCaffrey played his final game for the Panthers. It came at SoFi Stadium, of all places.

Four days later, the 49ers traded with Carolina to acquire McCaffrey, so the running back is now set to return to the Rams’ majestic home venue in a new uniform just 14 days after he left.

Life in the NFL can move furiously fast, indeed. And it might be moving even faster for the Rams, who had a bye last weekend and therefore face the unusual situation of squaring off against the same star player in two consecutive games. With Carolina, in a game that L.A. won 24-10, McCaffrey racked up 158 all-purpose yards — 89 yards receiving and 69 yards rushing.

“He’s a good piece for them,” Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald said of McCaffrey and the 49ers this week. “He’s a headache to try to game plan for.”

McCaffrey managed an efficient receiving game — he caught seven passes on eight targets — despite the fact that the undermanned Panthers started third-string quarterback PJ Walker. McCaffrey was his usual elusive self. He broke numerous tackles and even flattened Rams safety Taylor Rapp on one of his longer gains.

“They’re a physical defense,” McCaffrey said at his new 49ers locker on Thursday. “Everyone’s out there playing ball. Everyone’s out there taking hits, but you’ve got to give them as well. That’s what makes football so fun. I’ve got a lot of respect for (Rapp) and that defense in general, so I’m sure it’ll be physical again on Sunday.”

The 49ers and their quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be without star receiver Deebo Samuel, who missed all three practices this week with a hamstring injury. Among the team’s skill position players, Samuel is the primary physical enforcer — a role he’s seemed to embrace with particular zeal against the Rams.

That absence has infused even more urgency into McCaffrey’s preparations. Against Kansas City last week, he played 22 snaps. That was fresh off the trade. McCaffrey is expected to shoulder a much larger load against L.A. thanks to how quickly he’s picked up the rest of the 49ers’ playbook this week, and that might be necessary if Samuel is either unavailable or limited on Sunday.

“He sees the field very similar to a quarterback,” Garoppolo said Thursday. “He just has a good feel for space.”

Upon hearing his QB’s praise, McCaffrey smiled.

“That’s a good compliment,” he said. “You’ve really got to think like them and try to be at the right spot at the right time.”

That spot, for the second in 14 days, might be SoFi Stadium.

Here are 10 observations and our predictions for Sunday’s NFC West clash.

1. Injury report: Like Samuel, 49ers receiver Jauan Jennings has a hamstring injury and missed practice all three days of practice this week. However, Jennings did run sprints on the side during while wearing a helmet on both Thursday and Friday, a good sign that he is progressing from his injury. Jennings is officially listed as questionable.

The 49ers will without defensive lineman Arik Armstead, who last played in the team’s win over the Rams in Week 4 but has since been sidelined with plantar fasciitis and a related ankle injury. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw and fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who had surgery on his broken finger Monday, are also both out.

Cornerback Jason Verrett, who was activated off the physically unable to perform list this week in his recovery from last season’s ACL tear, is listed as questionable.

49ers are struggling without Arik Armstead’s massive impact on run defense

2. When the Rams won the Super Bowl last season, they were an eminently balanced team. So far this year, that has certainly not been the case.

What’s happened?

For starters, the Rams have seen considerable erosion along their foundations — the offensive and defensive lines. The retirement of left tackle Andrew Whitworth was the first in a string of blows to L.A.’s pass protection, and the loss of edge defender Von Miller to Buffalo in free agency has tangibly worsened the Rams’ pass rush.

Those problems have cast domino effects. Although L.A.’s defense has managed to stay afloat, the offense is limping. That unit’s biggest statistical tumble has come in ESPN’s pass-block win rate. In 2021, the Rams ranked No. 1. This season, they’re mired down at No. 23.

3. The 49ers thrashed L.A.’s offensive line in their 24-9 win at Levi’s Stadium earlier this month, amassing seven sacks and 35 pressures against Stafford.

But the Rams will look significantly different up front in this rematch. For one, their starting left tackle from Week 4, Joe Noteboom, has since been lost for the season with a torn Achilles. L.A. is moving Alaric Jackson, who’s been the team’s best pass protector, to Noteboom’s former spot. The Rams are also set to return starting center Brian Allen, whose injury versus the 49ers forced them to play third-stringer Jeremiah Kolone at the position.

So Noteboom and Kolone, who allowed 12 of the 49ers’ 35 pressures in that first game, won’t be in the lineup for this one. It’s a new challenge for Nick Bosa and company.

4. Take a quick glance back up at the DVOA table above. The 2022 Rams are worse than their 2021 counterparts in all but one area: run defense.

L.A. ranks No. 2 in that phase of the game, thanks in large part to solid work from Donald, fellow defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson and linebackers Bobby Wagner and Ernest Jones. Outside of a 32-yard touchdown from running back Jeff Wilson Jr., the 49ers only managed 2.7 yards per carry in Week 4.

But that score counted and the 49ers will strive to deliver a similarly effective opening punch on Sunday. They landed that one with Wilson thanks to some early completions from Garoppolo which softened L.A.’s defense and set up a “wham” block from 49ers tight end Charlie Woerner against much heavier Rams defensive tackle Greg Gaines.

The block clearly caught a destabilized L.A. defense off balance.

“It just gets tight,” Garoppolo said. “So sometimes you’ve got to pass to set up the run and vice versa.”

5. Speaking of Garoppolo, artist Rita Carvalho is still drawing him every day.

Drawing No. 261 ended up being particularly timely because the 49ers opened practice by playing the closing scene music from “Star Wars: A New Hope” to open Wednesday’s practice.

6. With Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson Sr. manning the 49ers’ two safety spots, Jimmie Ward — in his second game coming off injury — is set to again start at nickelback. When asked about his new role on Wednesday, Ward didn’t seem thrilled about it.

“I’m just doing what my coaches are telling me to do,” Ward said bluntly. “It’s my last year under contract and I’m just trying to be a great team player.”

The nickelback assignment is a massive one on Sunday. All-Pro Rams receiver Cooper Kupp, who already has 56 catches for 607 yards this season and is easily Stafford’s favorite target, lines up in the slot over 60 percent of the time.

7. McCaffrey hasn’t played on a team that’s finished above .500 since his 2017 rookie season with Carolina. He sees an opportunity to change that this season with the 49ers.

“I want to win,” McCaffrey said. “I want to win for this team. I want to win for these guys. I want to win for the whole Bay Area. They did give up a lot to get me, so there’s definitely a sense of urgency.”

McCaffrey also acknowledged Carolina’s decision to trade him has “put a chip on his shoulder.”

“I understand this is a business, but anytime someone gets rid of you or something happens, you take it personally,” McCaffrey said. “I’m so happy to be there, but it’s part of the league. It happens to coaches, happens to players. Just more wood on the fire.”

Shortly after McCaffrey made this comments, a reporter asked 49ers left tackle Trent Williams — who was dealt from Washington to the 49ers in 2020 — if he could relate to some hard post-trade feelings.

“No, I can’t relate to that one,” Williams said, breaking into a smile and hearty laughter. “I wanted to get traded! I was ecstatic. I was really happy when I got the news.”

8. The 49ers have struggled to maintain offensive rhythm for a full 60 minutes so far this season. Many theories exist as to why this has been the case — with scoring down across the NFL, it’s apparent that much of the league has been in a similar boat — but perhaps the 49ers have at least one easily identifiable culprit: drops.

Samuel has four drops, the highest total on the team. Jennings and Aiyuk both have two.

9. The 49ers’ special teams, which finished ranked No. 26 in DVOA last season, has also languished in 2022. The team is again ranked No. 26 in that phase of the game. Kickoff overage (where the 49ers rank No. 28) and kick returns (where they rank No. 32) have been especially problematic.

A potentially easy improvement? Perhaps returner Ray-Ray McCloud III should stop taking kickoffs that could be touchbacks out of the end zone. This charting shows the 49ers have only one return in six tries that has successfully crossed the 25-yard line. The team’s average starting field position after kickoff returns that could’ve been touchbacks is their own 16.7-yard line.

10. Tight end Ross Dwelley is expected to fill in for Juszczyk. He played four games at fullback in 2019 when Juszczyk was hurt. The 49ers did lose some rushing efficiency during that stretch, but they’re confident that Dwelley — who’s packed on some muscle since that initial foray three seasons ago — is more ready for the task this time.

“When you’re the second tight end on the field, it’s kind of similar to what Juice does,” Dwelley said Wednesday. “There’s a lot of similarities for sure. … But you’re also blocking on the move a lot more. The tight end is a lot of base blocks starting from the line of scrimmage. With fullback you can manipulate a little bit more, because you get movement in the backfield and you can manipulate your angles when you’re going to the linebacker at the second level.”

49ers vs. Rams predictions

Matt Barrows: Kyle Shanahan going into a Rams game without Samuel is like King Arthur going into battle without Excalibur. No one cuts down the Rams quite like Samuel. So what does Shanahan do? He leans on his new weapon, McCaffrey, who, like Samuel, runs the ball and catches passes equally well. In fact, the 49ers could even double down by having McCaffrey and Wilson on the field at the same time. Wilson has been underutilized as a pass catcher so far and seeing both would put the Rams defense in a jam.

David Lombardi: A limited or unavailable Samuel against the Rams, who’ve also made significant O-line changes since the 49ers dominated them earlier this month, spells trouble. Shanahan’s team might have to dig itself out of a 3-5 hole for the second straight season.

Sean McVay had some great things to say about Kyren Williams as a player and a person https://t.co/ik1mOLnoAr

— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) October 29, 2022