Agamemnon wrote:

That is 5 WRs in the top 30.
10 DTs in the top 50.

I say…draft em all.

PFF DRAFT BOARD 2.0: TOP 100 NFL PROSPECTS

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/03/16/draft-pff-draft-board-2-0-top-100-prospects/

The second iteration of the PFF Draft Board expands the list to 100 players, as our player evaluations continue to evolve leading up to the draft. We have two full years of grading on every player in the FBS, and that will always be the guiding light in our process, but the re-evaluation of each player’s strengths and weaknesses and how those fit into the NFL are vital when piecing together each player’s value.

With positional value taken into consideration, here is the second version of the PFF Draft Board.

Joey Bosa, Edge, Ohio State
The best player in the draft has been the nation’s top edge against the run while ranking first and second as a pass rusher each of the last two seasons.

DeForest Buckner, Defensive Interior, Oregon
Similar to Bosa, Buckner was the most productive interior defensive lineman by a wide margin. He’s a playmaker against the run and able to get into the backfield as a pass rusher.

Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida State
The biggest question about Ramsey is where he plays in the NFL, but his versatility should make him a solid option at either cornerback or safety, He put together two strong years of grades despite playing at free safety, in the slot, and outside cornerback.

Jared Goff, QB, Cal
The top-graded QB in the nation this season after ranking eighth a year ago, Goff’s combination of pocket presence, toughness under pressure, and downfield accuracy make him the top option.

Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
With six strong games under his belt in 2015, we’d like to see a larger sample size of dominant play, but Tunsil is an explosive run blocker and he handled an impressive slate of edge rushers to allow only five pressures on the year.

Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
Our top coverage linebacker in 2015, Jack played only 207 snaps in 2015 due to injury. He’s versatile enough to move around the formation while holding his own in coverage and he’s powerful when attacking blocks in the run game.

Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
There’s some projection to Wentz’s game, but the raw tools are impressive. While his timing isn’t always on point in the passing game, he has the big arm and athleticism to mask that inexperience as he grows.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
The best all-around running back in the draft and perhaps the nation, Elliott boasted the top run grade in the class in 2014 and then led the nation as a blocker in 2015. His ability to run, catch, and block will put him on the field early and often.

Sheldon Rankins, Defensive Interior, Louisville
With two straight years of dominant play, Rankins can play a number of positions along the defensive front, attacking blockers in the run game while providing a strong pass rush. He has only two negatively-graded games in our two seasons of data.

Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
Whether creating separation before the catch or yards after it, Coleman’s athleticism stands out on the field. He has the ability to make plays at all levels of the field.

Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
Our top-graded WR before going down to injury last season, Doctson routinely makes incredible catches, turning off-target throws into big plays. That downfield ability makes him one of the most exciting playmakers in the draft.

Shaq Lawson, Edge, Clemson
The second-best all around edge behind Bosa, Lawson is strong on the edge in the run game while posting the number eight pass rushing grade in the class.

Chris Jones, Defensive Interior, Mississippi State
The power is the first thing that stands out, and it was put to good use as Jones ranked fourth in the nation among interior defensive linemen at +54.2. He can move blockers at the point of attack and push the pocket, and he still has room to grow as a player.

Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
A power scheme is ideal for Conklin who moves defenders at the point of attack while holding up well in pass protection. His two-year body of work is right up there with any offensive tackle in the nation on a snap-for-snap basis.

Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
One of the most consistent pass protecting tackles in the nation, Stanley should carry that to the next level while his run-blocking is sufficient in the right scheme.

William Jackson III, CB, Houston
The second-best coverage grade in the draft class, Jackson is an aggressive, good-sized corner who will contest a lot of catches and make plays on the defensive side. He has the size and deep speed to develop into a number one corner.

Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State
After ranking fourth in the nation among offensive tackles in 2014 and first in 2015, Whitehair is projected to move to guard at the next level, something we saw during Senior Bowl week. He acquitted himself well, and he has the potential to be the next successful tackle to guard convert in the NFL.

Mackenzie Alexander, CB, Clemson
Trapped in a Clemson defensive scheme that hung him out to dry with a lot of soft, off-coverage, Alexander may be a far better pro player than he was in college. Has all the traits of a top, shutdown corner.

Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
In 2014 Hargreaves posted the best coverage grade we have seen from this draft class across two seasons of college tape. Didn’t repeat it in 2015 but still shows a lot of impressive tape and ball skills. Only negative is size.

Leonard Floyd, Edge, Georgia
Floyd could dabble as an outside linebacker in the NFL just as he did last year in college, but his size and athleticism are best used rushing off the edge where his +28.9 pass rushing grade ranked fifth among the edge rushers in the class.

Jarran Reed, Defensive Interior, Alabama
With our second-best grade against the run in 2015, Reed is rarely moved at the point of attack and he knows how to shed in make plays, as indicated by his nation-leading run stop percentage of 13.4 percent. He can play nose tackle, but also looks the part of a 3-4 defensive end if needed.

Andrew Billings, Defensive Interior, Baylor
One of the strongest players in the draft, Billings is stout at the point of attack and perhaps the best nose tackle option in the draft. He was also got after the quarterback among the best in the country the past two seasons.

Shilique Calhoun, Edge, Michigan State
No edge rusher had a better pass rushing grade than Calhoun in 2015, and he was strong in that department in 2014 as well. He’s not nearly as stout against the run, but did show that he can be productive in the run game in 2014.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma
Our top-graded wide receiver in 2015, Shepard combines nifty route running with underrated downfield ball skills. Even though most of his work is done from the slot, he has the quickness to produce and validate his standing at the top of the draft.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
While he doesn’t create the same kind of separation you’d like to see from a top wide receiver prospect, Treadwell is strong, though inconsistent, at the catch point and good with the ball in his hands after the catch.

Robert Nkemdiche, Defensive Interior, Ole Miss
Perhaps the most disruptive interior pass rusher in the draft, Nkemdiche has some questions about his ideal fit, but he’s gotten after the quarterback the last two seasons and he improved greatly against the run in 2015.

Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
Injury aside, Smith’s athleticism stands out and it often shows when in coverage and as a pass rusher. He’s not bad in the run game, though he’s not as strong at the point of attack as other linebackers in the class. If healthy, Smith has a chance to be a three-down playmaker at the next level.

Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
While some of the other linebackers are stronger in certain areas, Ragland is solid across the board. He can work downhill in the running game, and his ability to hold up in coverage and create pressure should make him a third-down chess piece at the next level.

Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers
A good combination of speed and separation skills, Carroo was incredibly productive on only 363 snaps last season averaging 4.11 yards per route to lead all FBS receivers.

Sheldon Day, Defensive Interior, Notre Dame
Disruption is the name of the game for Day who excels at shooting gaps, though he could stand to finish better. His overall grade ranked second behind only Buckner among interior defensive linemen in 2015.

Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
Production took a hit due to inconsistent quarterback play, but Thomas knows how to get open and he was a big-play threat when targeted.

Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
Few tight ends can work the middle of the field like Henry who has averaged 14.3 yards/reception over the last two years. He’s only dropped two of his 90 catchable targets during that time.

Jonathan Bullard, DI, Florida
Our top-graded run defender on the interior in 2015, Bullard is excellent at recognizing blocks, disrupting schemes and making plays. He doesn’t have a clean positional home, but has the versatility to play all along the defensive line.

Noah Spence, Edge, Eastern Kentucky
We have little information about Spence, but the upside was evident at the Senior Bowl when he dominated practice and carried it into the game. Even though he may not do much as a run defender, Spence’s burst off the edge and pass rush potential is the best in the class.

Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
A press man corner who made need a compass to find the football, Apple can stick with receivers as well as anyone in the class, though zone-heavy teams may not be interested.

Emmanuel Ogbah, Edge, Oklahoma State
A one-dimensional player in 2015, Ogbah boasted the No. 3 pass rush grade among all edge rushers, though he settled in around average against the run. The potential is there to improve in that department but it may limit his usage early on.

Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado State
Higgins posted a huge grade (+32.0) in 2014, and while that dropped to +22.7 this year, there’s still a lot to like about the Colorado State playmaker. He dropped just three of the 78 catchable passes thrown his way in 2015 and he may be the best route runner in the draft class.

Austin Johnson, Defensive Interior, Penn State
Boasting the No. 3 run-stopping grade in the nation in 2015, Johnson beats blockers with quick hands to disrupt the backfield and that bodes well for his upside as a pass rusher. His skills were on display with a strong week at the Senior Bowl.

Vernon Butler, Defensive Interior, Louisiana Tech
Butler has put together two straight years of strong work against the run while improving his pass rush grade to 15th in the class on the strength of a bull rush that made up 40 percent of his pressures.

Su’a Cravens, S/LB, USC
A safety/linebacker hybrid, Cravens attacks blocks in the running game and makes plays in the passing game. The NFL will find a spot for him as the difference between linebackers and strong safeties shrinks every year.

Scooby Wright III, LB, Arizona
Few linebackers possess Wright’s instincts and block-shedding ability, and he looks like a plus run defender in the NFL if he’s healthy. The question for Wright is his athleticism in space, but we’ve seen other linebackers stay productive with similar concerns.

Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
Kelly posted good, not great, grades over the last two years, but he projects as a starting NFL center on the strength of a powerful run-blocking base that should work in any scheme. The NFL offensive line coaches we’ve spoken too all love his game.

Adolphus Washington, Defensive Interior, Ohio State
Another strong all-around player, Washington is stout at the point of attack, but strong and quick enough to blow up plays as well. His +32.0 pass rush grade ranked third in the nation and he was strong in the run game.

Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia
Before going down to injury after only 240 snaps in 2015, Joseph had the fifth-highest grade in the country as he showed off his playmaking skills while playing multiple coverages in West Virginia’s defense. He’s a versatile safety that is just as comfortable playing in the box as he is in deep center field.

A’Shawn Robinson, Defensive Interior, Alabama
Rarely moved in the run game, Robinson played well within Alabama’s scheme and he projects as a similar, run-stopping 3-4 defensive end at the next level. The question is whether or not he can provide enough pass rush to warrant a high pick after two pedestrian seasons in that department.

Michael Thomas, WR, Southern Miss
Playing bigger than his 6-foot-1 frame, Thomas caught a higher percentage of contested catches than the other top receivers in the class while ranking ninth in the nation with 2.98 yards/route.

Jerell Adams, TE, South Carolina
Adams is a strong run blocker on the edge, while showing some wiggle at the top of routes, both on tape and during Senior Bowl practice. He’s the best all-around tight end in the draft.

Devin Lucien, WR, Arizona State
A player that doesn’t seem to be getting the credit he deserves at this stage, he had the fifth highest receiving grade in games against Power-5 opponents in this draft class. He wasn’t quite dominant in college, but did everything well and showcased a safe pair of hands, dropping just three of the 69 catchable passes thrown his way.

Joshua Perry, LB, Ohio State
There’s little flash to Perry’s game, but he does everything well whether fitting against the run, dropping into coverage or tackling. He’s missed only nine tackles on over 200 attempts the last two years.

Kenny Clark, Defensive Interior, UCLA
Another strong interior defensive lineman, Clark is excellent at feeling and defeating all types of blocks — a big reason he was the No. 2 interior defensive lineman against the run in 2014. He took a slight step back in that area in 2015, but added more pass rush to his game.

Jeremy Cash, S/LB, Duke
Similar to Cravens, Cash attacks blockers with a vengeance, whether playing the run where he led all safeties with a +20.4 grade or as a pass rusher where he also led at +13.9. He’s yet another safety/linebacker hybrid who will start as a box player while learning a true safety role on the side.

Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama
Like several of the corners in this list, doesn’t have the ideal size profile many NFL teams are looking for, but he’s feisty and extremely strong against the run and short passing game. Tough to shake in man and has a good feel for zone coverage, but has occasional lapses which have resulted in giving up 10 TDs over two seasons

Hassan Ridgeway, Defensive Interior, Texas
Often lost in the deep class of interior defensive linemen, Ridgeway has put together two strong years of grading with a +48.6 overall mark on only 1044 snaps. He’s scheme-versatile and he can get after the quarterback better than most interior rushers in the class.

Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
He might be a one-trick pony, but it’s a fairly important trick in today’s NFL. He ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at the scouting combine, and was third in the nation with 708 yards on passes traveling 20 yards or more in the air. He did drop 10 of the 72 catchable passes thrown his way though — something he’ll have to improve upon.

Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Perhaps more of an athlete than a great football player at this point, Spriggs graded well in 2015 (+16.7), but his strong NFL combine has teams looking at him as a first-round project. He needs to tie up a few technique issues and show more of that athleticism on the field to warrant more than a Day 2 pick.

Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech
One of the most exciting running backs in the draft, Dixon is a clever runner, capable of cutting on a dime and making overaggressive defenses pay with big plays. He’s also very good in the passing game, particularly when split out wide.

Joe Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin
One of the nation’s most productive players the last two seasons, Schobert may be viewed as a traditional linebacker at the next level, but he should be given a chance to rush the passer where he led the nation in pass-rush productivity each of the last two seasons.

Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia
A solid receiver across the board, Mitchell will get overshadowed by flashier receivers, but he creates separation on the post and dig routes as well as a receiver in the class and he’s dropped only four passes on 93 catchable targets the last two years.

Paul Perkins, RB, UCLA
The only running back in the draft class to force more missed tackles was Alabama’s Derrick Henry (76 to 73), but it took Henry and extra 160 carries to do so. Perkins posted the top run grade and elusive rating (114.7) in the class.

Pharoh Cooper, WR, South Carolina
A threat to score with the ball in his hands, Cooper can be used in a variety ways that get the ball to him in space and he can use his excellent acceleration as a vertical slot receiver in the Doug Baldwin mold.

Carl Nassib, Edge, Penn State
It’s not always pretty, but Nassib was rarely blocked in 2015 and that trend continued at a dominant Senior Bowl week. He sets a hard edge in the run game and keeps blockers off balance with power and good hands.

Joshua Garnett, G, Stanford
Our top run-blocking guard in 2015, Garnett is a scheme-specific power guard that is best fit for a man-blocking scheme similar to Stanford’s. He struggled at times in pass pro and posted his worst games against his best competition (Buckner and Day).

Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame
Similar to Kelly, Martin has a strong all-around game and projects to be a future starter with scheme diversity. His +22.7 overall grade ranked fifth in the nation.

Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh
At +18.2, just three players in this draft class had a higher receiving grade than Boyd. His grades over the past two years were almost identical, with the Pittsburgh playmaker coming in at +22.2 last year and +22.9 this year. He dropped five passes in each of the past two seasons, but did see 16 more catchable passes thrown his way this year, so his drop rate improved from 6.02 to 5.05.

Joe Thuney, T/G, NC State
One of the nation’s top guards in 2014, Thuney made a smooth transition to left tackle in 2015 finishing fourth in the draft class at +35.6 overall. He surrendered only seven pressures on 507 attempts in pass protection and at the very least he’ll bring versatility to an offensive line as a capable guard or tackle.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Western Kentucky
Just two tight ends in this draft class had a higher receiving grade than WKU’s Higbee, with the Hilltopper making the most of the 48 passes thrown his way, dropping just two passes on his way to a 38-catch, 562-yard and eight-touchdown season. His run blocking grade was tied for 22nd in the class, but was still positive at +4.9.

Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State
With a good showing at the combine and pro day, Bell’s athleticism shows whether he’s on or off the field. He’s able to step up and make plays in the run game while playing in split-safety looks in coverage.

Kalan Reed, CB, Southern Miss
Incredibly smooth mover at cornerback, fits the size profile most teams are looking for. Can play in any scheme and make plays on the ball. Had excellent tape this year and our third-highest coverage grade in the draft class.

Maliek Collins, Defensive Interior, Nebraska
Yet another productive interior defensive lineman, Collins is a disruptor who can shoot gaps and blow up plays. He ranked 10th in the draft class against the run at +28.4 and 11th as a pass rusher at +21.1.

Kyler Fackrell, Edge, Utah State
Fackrell emerged as one of the nation’s top players in 2015, finishing ninth overall among edge defenders at +39.0. He dabbled in more of a traditional linebacker role at the Senior Bowl, but his best bet is as a 3-4 outside linebacker where he can rush the passer, play the edge in the run game and drop occasionally into coverage.

Alex Collins, RB, Arkansas
Running in Arkansas’ pro-style offense, Collins posted the eighth-highest grade in the class as he showed the quickness and vision to maximize his offensive line’s blocking, but lacked the open-field ability to create a high percentage of big plays.

Keyarris Garrett, WR, Tulsa
He racked up 725 yards on passes travelling 20 yards or more downfield, including seven touchdowns, and dropped just three of the 99 catchable passes thrown his way in 2015. A big target at 6-feet-4, Garrett can make plays downfield.

Christian Westerman, G, Arizona State
One of the best pass-protecting guards in the class, Westerman combines good movement skills with surprising power, and while some of his peers are locked into a power blocking scheme, he is more diverse if not a zone blocking

Darius Latham, Defensive Interior, Indiana
Size and productivity make Latham an interesting prospect as he got after the quarterback better than most (+23.8) while playing well against the run (+15.8).

Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana
Two years of strong play at UAB and Indiana, Howard has shown scheme diversity while posting the fifth-best run grade in the draft class last season.

Kevin Dodd, Edge, Clemson
A solid run defender on the edge, Dodd went on a tear late in the season as a pass rusher. Although he finished 25th in the class in that department, so he looks like more of a solid, every-down defensive end than an explosive game changer off the edge.

Bronson Kaufusi, Defensive Interior, BYU
Kaufusi’s best fit may be as a 3-4 defensive end where his size and length will give him a chance to develop into a strong run defender with above average pass rushing potential.

Isaac Seumalo, G, Oregon State
Quietely one of the nation’s best guards, Seumalo rarely loses in the run game and mitigates the damage when he does. He surrendered only four pressures on 407 attempts in pass protection last year.

Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
The size and arm strength are impressive, as is Lynch’s three-year development at Memphis, but he’s just a notch below the other quarterbacks in this class. His accuracy at the intermediate level is concerning, particularly outside the numbers where his accuracy percentage is among the worst in the nation.

Kamalei Correa, Edge, Boise State
As far as transitions to 3-4 outside linebacker go, Correa should make a smooth one after notching eight sacks, 12 QB hits, and 16 hurries on only 250 pass rushes last season.

Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
We don’t see the same dominant offensive tackle potential in Decker as he’s a powerful fun blocker, but there was too much inconsistency in pass protection over the last two seasons.

Spencer Drango, G, Baylor
One of our top-graded tackles the last two years, Drango looks like a smooth guard conversion as many of the blocks he was asked to make at Baylor will translate nicely. He can collapse the backside of zone plays and he has experience pulling in the run game.

Nick VanHoose, CB, Northwestern
Has a strange, wooden way of moving that looks very awkward at times, but it doesn’t prevent him from making plays, and a lot of them. Allowed fewer than 44 percent of passes thrown his way to be caught this past season and had the highest coverage grade in the nation.

Darian Thompson, S, Boise State
Thompson works downhill in both the pass and run game very well, but his geometric skills are lacking at times as his open field angles need some work. He also disappointed with a slow 40 time at the combine as many teams were hoping to see a rangy free safety prospect.

Nick Kwiatkowski, LB, West Virginia
Kwiatkowski ranked fourth in the draft class as a run defender at +21.7 and fifth in coverage a +9.0 as his all-around strong play should make him a dependable starter at the next level.

Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor
His coverage numbers are excellent, but the tape shows they’re misleading. Beaten plenty this season without giving up completions. Has the measurables, and his good is excellent, but he is a work in progress.

Anthony Zettel, Defensive Interior, Penn State
There was a drop-off in Zettel’s game in 2015 after he was one of the nation’s best interior defensive linemen in 2014 with a strong performance against the run and rushing the passer.

Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
Lee’s speed is evident on tape, but to this point, it’s been used effectively as a pass rusher while lacking consistency against the run and in coverage. He played over the slot quite a bit at Ohio State but coverage was a mix of big plays and mishaps over the last two years.

Daniel Braverman, WR, Western Michigan
He might be a slot only receiver at the next level, but he’s very good in that role regardless. No player in this draft class averaged more yards per route run from the slot than Braverman’s 3.27.

Joe Dahl, OT, Washington State
The NFL is going to be split on what exactly Joe Dahl is. His Senior Bowl performance suggested pretty conclusively that he is not a guard, but many will be reluctant to play him at tackle given his body type and measurables profile. A move to center has also been mooted. At tackle, however, he is a natural pass protector who struggles to anchor against the bull rush.

Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA
Payton had the seventh highest receiving grade in this draft class at +22.2, seeing a big jump from +8.6 in 2014. He showcased a safe pair of hands at UCLA, dropping just six of the 154 catchable passes thrown his way between 2014 and 2015.

Le’Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech
The size and length are there for Clark, but as we saw at Senior Bowl week, he has a lot of work to do to learn how to effectively use his tools. His pass rush grade of +6.7 ranked ninth in the draft class.

Matt Skura, C, Duke
Skura always seems to be in good position to make the necessary block, a big part of his earning PFF All-American status. He can develop into a future starter at the next level.

Matt Ioannidis, Defensive Interior, Temple
Consistently disruptive on the inside of a good Temple defense, Ioannidis played in multiple technique spots on the defensive front and was pretty effective at every one. Perhaps best suited to 3-tech at the next level, he’s an intriguing player with proven production.

Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
There’s a lot of projection with Miller, who has seen just 30 catchable passes thrown his way in his short time at wide receiver. He excels in space though, forcing eight missed tackles on 28 receptions in 2015.

Ronald Blair, Defensive Interior, Appalachian State
Blair has been extremely productive against inferior competition the last two years, playing stout against the run and posting the number six pass rush grade in the draft class in 2015 at +24.9.

Tavon Young, CB, Temple
Size is a concern for Young as is the fact that he really did not grade well this season. A year ago his coverage grade was far better, but this season he struggled and may ultimately be best suited to covering the slot, rather than trying to match up with far bigger players on the outside.

Dean Lowry, Defensive Interior, Northwestern
While Lowry moved around in Northwestern’s scheme, he’s likely best fit to play on the interior due to his size and athleticism. His +37.0 overall grade ranked 10th in the nation when compared to other edge defenders (his primary position in 2015).

Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Everybody knows about the family bloodlines, but right now Kendall Fuller looks like a zone cornerback who may struggle in different schemes. Breaks on the ball well but has been beaten for an average of almost 15 yards over the past two seasons of coverage.

Will Anthony, Edge, Navy
A clear standout on a pretty good Navy defense, Anthony took a huge step forward this season and was one of the most actively disruptive defensive linemen in the country. Playing primarily on the interior for Navy, he would be an edge defender at the next level, and actually had superior production when he played there for the Midshipmen.

This is just me thinking about the people out there who say, well, Pace started out fast, why can’t GR. Actually there were several linemen from that draft (97), and from that era, that were playing pretty well from the get-go. You used to be able to count on it. Linemen went in the 1st round precisely because they were ready. Now, they go in the first round because they are somewhat readiER than others, and, also, because they represent longterm investments in a certain talent level.

Though….I am not sure why people think Pace was THAT good initially, since in fact, in a series of interviews, Hanifan made it absolutely clear that Pace needed to listen and to improve and that it took some doing. Hanifan likes to tell the story about how he had to work to get Pace’s attention. Pace needed work too, just like GR does now…just less of it.

That aside though, yeah Pace…and a lot of linemen…started off better than they tend to now. That includes in 97 Walter Jones. Tarik Glenn, and Ross Verba (all 1st round LOTs from that year’s draft).

But there’s a difference. Or, 2 differences. In 97 players came from more pro-oriented college offenses and had more real face-time and practice time with NFL coaches. Since then, the spread has messed up the transition for college linemen (there have been several articles about this in recent years) AND the new CBA limits practice time and contact with coaches.

That is why virtually NO LOT taken in the first round the last few years has started out well–the percentage is very low. The percentage does not improve much in their second years. I have done the numbers on this before, using the old PFF grades when they were still available.

The era when 4 1st round LOTs can play pretty well as rookies—as Pace, Jones, Glenn, and Verba ALL did in 97—was over a long time ago. Asking for that NOW (“that” being multiple 1st round LOTs performing at least pretty well as rookies) is just impossible.

IMO, if GR is still struggling in year 3, it’s an issue. Before then, any complaints are just coming from a place where people ignore too much (like the effect of the college spread on linemen developing as pros these days).

…

Connor Cook impressive at Michigan State pro day

Carlos Monarrez, Detroit Free Press

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/michigan-state/spartans/2016/03/16/connor-cook-msu-pro-day/81877426/

EAST LANSING — Connor Cook wasn’t perfect on his pro day. But he wasn’t too far off, either.

The former Michigan State quarterback showed off his impressive arm and plenty of accuracy in front of representatives all 32 NFL teams.

Also notable: the way Cook handled himself before and after the workout. He said hello to visitors, started conversations and moved easily around the practice facility. And when it was over, Cook handled the familiar questions about his leadership and character comfortably and without a hint of disdain.

“People can say whatever the heck they want to say about me and it’s not going to affect me one bit,” he said. “If they want to talk about the captain thing, if they want to say I’m a bad person, if they want to do anything like that, they can come meet me and talk to me and then get a better feel on that, because a lot of the people who are saying that stuff have never even met me before.

“They can come talk to my teammates, come talk to my coaches. But if they’re not going to do that and they’re going to continue to say that, I really don’t care.”

MSU coach Mark Dantonio admitted he was surprised by how much Cook’s non-captaincy has continued to gain momentum. But Dantonio has continued to be impressed with how well Cook has handled the scrutiny.

“Yeah, I think he’s been very transparent in how he’s handled things,” Dantonio said. “And I’ve tried to be the same in terms of what we try to do. I think it’s a position that’s highly regarded and highly evaluated and scrutinized. With that, I think he’s done a great job.”

Cook, one of 19 players who worked out Wednesday, took part only in throwing drills. He said his shoulder injury is 100% healed.

“Right now my arm’s stronger than it’s ever been,” he said. “Stronger than it was even before the injury.”

It certainly looked that way while Cook threw about 60 to 65 passes. While he was admittedly not perfect, Cook thought he answered some questions for scouts.

“Can he drive it?” Cook said. “Can he throw it deep? Can he bang out a 20-yard comeback down the field? And I showed that I can do that. There was things like that I wanted to prove and obviously why I’m one of the best QBs in the country.”

Cook may have answered some questions about his arm Wednesday. But he knows the questions about his head and heart will remain for one simple reason.

“Because I wasn’t voted captain,” he said. “When you have a quarterback that’s that successful and a team that’s that good and he’s not voted captain, there’s going to be some issues. So people immediately jump to conclusions: ‘Oh, he must have done something to not be voted captain. Did he break a team rule? Did he get arrested?’ No. ‘Well, he must not get along with his teammates.’ That’s not true, either. ‘He must have a really bad attitude or a bad personality.’ And that’s not true, either.”

Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Darqueze Dennard attended the workout and called himself a “huge Connor Cook fan.” Dennard noted that one reason Cook probably was not voted captain was because of the depth of leadership on the team last season.

“It’s a very deep group of seniors that played a lot of ball for Michigan State and won a lot of big games for them,” Dennard said. “So I think they’re just trying to pick and nag about things, and I don’t think it’s right. But like always, I think he’ll prove them wrong. I truly believe that and we’ll see.”

Donald Trump’s rise is the financial crisis of politics

Lee Drutman

http://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2016/3/15/11236378/trump-financial-crisis

In 2008-’09, a major financial meltdown shook the economy and caused a significant recession. This crisis came as a surprise. No models predicted it. Initially, the only people who picked up on the warning signs were dismissed as crazy. But looking back, it should have been clear all along.

We now know that the system was shot through with perverse incentives that privileged short-term gains over long-term stability. Actors operated on faulty assumptions about how existing arrangements were infinitely sustainable (they weren’t). Eventually it took a massive government intervention to bail out the banks and allow the “toxic assets” to recover.

Obviously, financial markets and political systems are not exactly the same, and there is a danger in stretching any analogy too far. But there are important similarities in that both are big, complex, interdependent systems that are never truly stable. Both systems get into trouble when they become overwhelmed with perverse incentives, and when actors assume they can maintain increasingly illogical arrangements and ignore warning signs.

One benefit of such a comparison is that thinking in this way allows us to see Trump’s rise as the result of the incentives and structure of the existing political system, in the same way that we came to think about the financial crisis as the result of the incentives and structures of the financial system. This has consequences for the reform conversations that this crisis will hopefully bring about.

A second benefit of this comparison is that the analogy to toxic assets seems particularly useful. The anger turned violence that has emerged in the 2016 campaign is similar to the toxic assets that came out of the financial crisis. And to push the analogy further, those who think Trump can be simply marginalized by responsible Republican leaders are deluding themselves, somewhat like investors who argued that the collapse of Bear Stearns in May 2008 could be safely contained and we could then move back to endlessly increase housing prices.

While some might prefer to wish away the toxic elements of our politics that are emerging, this would be unwise. We need to find a way to rescue them.

A system full of perverse incentives

One reason the financial crisis was so bad was that the financial system was full of perverse incentives. For example, mortgage brokers and investment banks got rich by making and securitizing loans that should never have been made. But because they got rich doing so, they financed and securitized riskier and riskier loans, until the system was so flooded with junk that it of course collapsed.

In a similar way, it seems that Republicans received short-term electoral rewards for poisoning our political system with increasingly hateful and nihilistic rhetoric. As Vox’s Ezra Klein wrote: “Republicans have worked for years to radicalize their base against Obama, to persuade them that something truly different and terrifying is going on, and in that project they have enjoyed a catastrophic success.”

In 2009, Republicans faced a choice. They could have looked at the disastrous second term of George W. Bush’s presidency as the logical end of the Reagan coalition and seen the Democrats’ sweeping 2008 victory as heralding a new political order, and then worked constructively to pass a climate bill and a health care bill and end an era of increasingly bitter partisanship. Instead, Republicans decided that the problem was that they had not been conservative enough. Their congressional leaders opted for pure obstructionism. And their messaging rediscovered regions of negativity and hatred that had been ignored in America for decades.

The benefit was clear: As long as they directed fire at a common enemy, they could continue to maintain the fiction that their coalition was unified, papering over the growing contradictions and disappointments. Republicans could continue to placate their wealthy donors with fiscally conservative policies because they could misdirect blame onto Washington Democrats and their big-government agenda for any stagnating wages.

Sure, they were playing with fire. But like the investment bankers who kept shoveling toxic assets into the system even as the thin logic that had once rationalized them vanished, all the incentives pushed toward maintaining the existing fiction.

What investment banker would have benefited in 2007 from telling clients that all these securitized mortgages were really junk and it was time to stop investing in them? Everybody had an incentive to perpetuate the status quo just a little longer, deluding themselves that it could go on and on.

Similarly, what Republican politician would have turned his back on the fight, accepting minority status for the price of peace? All the incentives pushed to maintaining the existing fights. And especially when the Republican strategy worked in 2010, the rewards became clear.

The false assumption that the present trends will last forever

The 1999 book Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is now a joke, a book published at the height of the tech stock bubble. (The Dow peaked at just below 12,000 in January 2000 and is now at about 17,000, 17 years later.) But this kind of thing always happens in financial bubbles: Investors look at the recent trends and make the common mistake of thinking that whatever has been happening recently will probably continue indefinitely into the future.

A year ago at this time, I was confidently predicting Jeb Bush would be the Republican Party nominee — because of course that was how things worked. He had the money and was poised to get the endorsements, and that was what had mattered for decades. Like most, I was convinced by the “party decides” thesis, because the recent data largely supported it. And so when Bush faltered, I followed the conventional wisdom that Rubio would take his place. Because of course.

Financial bubbles are pretty much impossible to time. We all know they happen, but no theory can perfectly predict them. Market highs are only clear from the hindsight purview of the trough.

In a similar way, all party coalitions in American politics are of limited duration.

We’ve arguably had six party systems in the United States. By “party system,” I mean relatively stable coalitions that fight predictable ideological battles. But because losing parties are always looking to expand their coalitions by picking off groups from the winning party, and because issues shift and demographics change, no party coalition is ever permanently stable. Realignments always happen.

Here’s a classic summation of this point by political scientists Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson:

Thus, by their very nature, all party alignments contain the seeds of their own destruction, the various groups that make up the party may be united on some issues, particularly on those that gave rise to the alignment in the first place. But lurking just below the surface a myriad of potential issues divides the party faithful and can lead to a dissolution of the existing equilibrium. In politics, as Riker notes, because of the inevitability of internal contradictions, disequilibrium may only be one issue away.

Arguably, the current party system emerged out of the period following the 1964 Civil Rights Act, when Lyndon Johnson allegedly acknowledged that the Democrats “have lost the South for a generation.” For about four elections, the parties were thoroughly scrambled, producing a time of low polarization and high legislative productivity.

But by 1980, the Republicans solidified around the Reagan vision for the Republican Party — strong on defense, traditional values, and free market economics. Most significantly, this offered a new and permanent home for the conservative Southerners who were now at odds with the increasingly effete libertine Democratic Party.

And once this party system was in place, polarization took off.

But beneath this increasingly partisan voting was an electorate that was always much more ideologically diverse than the increasingly bipolar two-party system. And the more this underlying ideological diversity was hemmed in by party orthodoxy on both sides, the more adherents of unrepresented views felt disenfranchised and the more both parties had to turn up negative partisanship to keep their coalition together.

In retrospect, we can see the fissures in the Republican Party in the rise of the Tea Party and perhaps more clearly in the intraparty Republican fights over the House leadership in 2015. As with most financial crises, the first warning signs are often dismissed: It’s just a slight deviation; things will return to normal.

We can also now see how the Republican coalition was prolonged beyond its shelf life. We can now see how Republican voters were becoming more secular, making the social conservative piece of the Reagan coalition less important. We can see how support for the strong-on-defense piece of the Reagan coalition fell apart after the failed Iraq War.

And, most significantly, we can now see how the tension between the fiscal conservatism of the increasingly powerful Republican donor class came into increasing tension with the growing numbers of working-class Republican voters suffering from increasing insecurity and inequality, and how the pro-immigration views of the donor class conflicted with the anxieties voters felt as the percentage of US residents born elsewhere reached levels not seen since the 1920s.

We can also now see that Europe has also been experiencing a rise of right-wing populism, suggesting that there is something in the changing dynamics of the global economy and culture that also made the existing political coalitions outdated.

Bubbles do happen, because all momentum in the system works to perpetuate them. But the more a bubble is allowed to persist beyond its logical limits, the worse the eventual fallout.

Now what?

Donald Trump represents the consequence of a political system in which the contradictions have been expanding for probably two decades now: a system in which economically struggling and less well-educated voters have been marginalized, in which both parties (but especially Republicans) have sided with their donor classes against their voters, and in which both parties (again, especially Republicans) have attempted to paper over their internal contradictions by spewing negative partisanship into the system. More than ever, voters support their party not because they like their party but because they absolutely hate the other party.

The political system that created this moment was also a system that centralized leadership in both parties in a way that minimized internal party diversity, fueling a reinforcing feedback loop of hyperpartisanship that left many voters unrepresented because they didn’t fit into the narrow lines of partisan conflict.

Republicans distressed by the rise of Trump currently now seem split between denial, despair, and desperation. Some seem to think that Trump’s rise is a temporary fever, one that will break after this election, and things will return to normal in 2018 or 2020. Others are ready to write the obituary for the GOP. Still others seem inclined to take increasingly desperate and drastic measures to try to deny Trump the party’s nomination.

None of these seem especially productive. At some point, Republicans in the #NeverTrump wing of the party are going to have to come to terms with the fact that a significant portion of self-identified Republicans support and believe in Donald Trump, and that their views and attitudes, long marginalized in the American political system, have now discovered a voice that is not going to fade away.

Because these views were marginalized for a long time, and because Republicans fostered anger to maintain their coalition’s unity against the Democrats, the political system now faces a potentially toxic asset. Denying this reality and hoping it will go away is the equivalent of the Treasury deciding it wasn’t going to backstop large financial institutions and just letting the chips fall where they may because, on principle, government shouldn’t get involved.

Trump voters now have a leader who is comfortable inciting violence and who craves the spotlight in unhealthy ways. This is not good. And it will be even worse if Trump is denied the nomination.

The political system needs to find a responsible way to make these voters feel like they are being heard and represented, and we are going to need to do it soon. Honestly, I’m not sure how this happens absent Trump becoming the Republican nominee. But that has its own problems, which have to be carefully managed. Leaders in the media and the Democratic Party are going to need to treat this situation carefully.

Longer term, we need to identify some of the pathologies of the political order that led us to this point so we can do better going forward.

For one, we need to move to a campaign finance system that doesn’t create strong incentives for party leaders to support policies that make their donors happy but piss off their voters and then use the money to channel their voters’ anger at the other party. That’s not sustainable. We also need to make sure we have a political system that fosters more internal diversity within the party, so large groups of voters don’t feel that they are unrepresented for extended periods of time.

The American political system always works better when the parties are more internally diverse, because a second dimension of political conflict creates much more space for dealmaking. I’ve outlined these ideas (and others) for fixing our political system a New America policy paper, Political Dynamism.

This is a frightening moment in American politics. But the most dangerous thing to do in a potential crisis is just continue to do the same things that led to the current moment, thinking somehow you can just ride past it and everything will be back to normal next election. It won’t.

from off the net

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merlin

What type of QB do the Rams want? I’m guessing they want a big guy who can play action and hit receivers down field for big plays. Good leadership, and a guy who carries himself well with the media. Lastly, I think boldness in the pocket is gonna matter too, they don’t want a guy who is a checkdown machine with a rush or perceived expectations of the rush, and if there is mobility that’s a big plus.

Using that as criteria the guys who fit are Wentz (total package), Goff (accurate throws in face of pressure), and Lynch (downfield accuracy is outstanding) in the round 1 real estate. Lynch projects as a guy who will need more time, and from that respect the other two will be more desired, but I don’t think he gets by the Rams at 15 because he checks so many blocks. I mean, put in his tape and there’s just no way this guy lasts until round 2 in the current QB starved climate in the NFL.

It really gets interesting as you look at the guys lower down the draft board, too. Prescott fits in every way but size, and while he took a hit with that DUI I do not think NFL types see him as a risk. Gil Brandt covered this the other day on Sirius and went on and on about how well liked he is as a person off the field by himself and the teams, and that perception is going to buy Prescott some draft day stock I think. The impact of that DUI is that now he should be there at our round 2 picks but that is not a certainty with teams like the Broncos and Jets being potentially more desperate than the Rams.

I don’t think the Rams even consider Hackenburg prior to round 4ish. He’s a scared rabbit with any kind of rush, major reclamation project. Jones is all raw arm talent and couldn’t keep his job. Cook has a weak back foot and some team is going to gamble they can fix his terrible accuracy with mechanics, I pray it’s not the Rams.

Guys who I think can fit mid to late rounds are Doughty, whose arm isn’t the strongest but is exceptionally accurate and competitive. Hogan, who also doesn’t have a cannon but who meets a lot of the criteria too. And Allen, who defies all his measurables with perhaps the best tape out of most of these QBs.