The AFC & NFC Conference Championships: set-up, predictions

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  • #110386
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    These are Eastern Standard Time

    Titans @ Chiefs 3:05 PM
    Packers @ 49ers 6:40 PM

    • This topic was modified 4 years, 4 months ago by zn.
    #110387
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    My predictions

    49ers 44 – Packers 14
    Chiefs 23 – Titans 20.

    #110388
    Agamemnon
    Moderator

    It is so refreshing to have some different teams in there and no cheaters.

    Agamemnon

    #110390
    TSRF
    Participant

    Actually, the only “New” team in there is the Titans. The other 3 are older than dirt…

    #110394
    zn
    Moderator

    Looks like a Chiefs/49ers superbowl.

    Titans? They haven’t had to play from behind.

    #110404
    Zooey
    Participant

    I don’t believe that God will allow the 49ers to play in the Super Bowl again.

    I believe that He has learned from His mistakes.

    #110406
    zn
    Moderator

    Four big questions for the 2019 NFL conference title games: Can Derrick Henry keep this up?

    Dan Graziano

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28471956/four-big-questions-2019-nfl-conference-title-games-derrick-henry-keep-up

    There are four teams left in pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy — the 49ers, Packers, Chiefs and Titans — and three NFL games left in this season. The 2019 playoffs have answered quite a few questions so far:

    Can the Ravens keep it up in the postseason? (No.)

    Will the 49ers’ inexperience hurt them? (No.)

    Are the Saints the NFC’s best team even though they’re the 3-seed? (No.)

    Are the Titans the team no one wants to face? (Clearly, yes.)

    But while many questions have been answered, several remain. We have one for each of the four remaining teams:

    Is this finally the year for Andy Reid?

    Everything sure does seem to be coming up Chiefs right now. They got a bye because Miami knocked off the Patriots in Week 17. They’ll host the AFC Championship Game (Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS) because the Titans upset the Ravens. And while they looked utterly awful Sunday in a first quarter in which they fell behind 24-0, they looked utterly unstoppable for the remaining three quarters and beat the Texans 51-31.

    Patrick Mahomes is the best player remaining in these playoffs, and if a team can spot you 24 points and beat you by 20 in an NFL playoff game, that’s as scary a team as we’ve ever seen. Once the Chiefs’ offense gets rolling, it’s hard to imagine any team stopping it.

    If Steve Spagnuolo’s run defense — which was the seventh worst in the league this year but the fifth best over the final six weeks of the regular season — can find a way to slow down Derrick Henry, Reid should find himself in his second Super Bowl with a strong chance to win his first.

    Can Derrick Henry keep carrying the Titans?

    The Titans’ decision to sit a banged-up Henry for a Week 16 game against the Saints that didn’t mean anything to their playoff chances looks stunningly good in retrospect. Since that game, Henry has become the first player in NFL history to rush for 180 or more yards in three straight games, and Tennessee has beaten the Texans, Patriots and Ravens in what amounted to elimination games. (Technically, Week 17 didn’t turn out to be a must-win game for the Titans because other teams lost, but that was their outlook entering the finale.)

    Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is playing well, but little has been asked of him so far this postseason. For the Titans, it’s about Henry, the most unstoppable physical force in the game right now. If the Chiefs slip up in the first quarter the way they did Sunday, Henry and the Titans will be far better suited to put them away than the Texans were.

    Can Jimmy Garoppolo win the 49ers a playoff game if they need him to?

    Garoppolo wasn’t very good in his first career playoff start — a 27-10 victory over the Vikings — but he didn’t have to be. The story of Saturday’s game was a dominant defensive effort by the legion of first-round picks in the San Francisco front. It’s not unfair to expect the Niners’ defense to continue to play at a high level, but if there comes a time when they need to outscore, say, the Packers or the Chiefs in a shootout, Garoppolo remains untested on this particular stage.

    The data point on his résumé that tells us he can do this is his four-touchdown effort in Week 14’s 48-46 victory over Drew Brees and the Saints in New Orleans. But while that game had a playoff feel, we’ve learned time and again that the actual playoffs are a different animal. There’s no particular reason to doubt Garoppolo’s ability to win a playoff game if the 49ers need him to win one, other than the fact that he hasn’t done it yet. But he was definitely shaky Saturday, and Niners fans hope he was just working out some first-playoff-game jitters.

    Can the Packers solve the 49ers’ defense on their second try?

    Longtime Kyle Shanahan assistant Matt LaFleur leads his Packers into San Francisco (Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, Fox), where they got absolutely crushed 37-8 in Week 12. Green Bay was 9-for-13 on third-down conversions in Sunday’s divisional-round victory over Seattle — a stark contrast to its 1-for-15 performance on third down in their first meeting with Shanahan’s 49ers. The Packers’ offense averaged 2.8 yards per play against the Niners. Aaron Rodgers had 104 passing yards. Aaron Jones had 38 rushing yards. The 49ers’ defense had five sacks, and it is coming off a divisional-round victory in which it had six.

    If the Packers want to get to the Super Bowl in LaFleur’s first season, it will come down to how much his offense learned from the first meeting and whether it can help them stay in the game this time around.

    #110417
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    Here is the question, if the Packers somehow shock the world and beat the 49ers, and we get a Packers-Chiefs Super Bowl, should we blame State Farm? Just wondering.

    #110437
    zn
    Moderator

    #110448
    zn
    Moderator

    #110457
    zn
    Moderator

    #110459
    zn
    Moderator

    Andrew Siciliano@AndrewSiciliano
    Mike Vrabel on the Titans 2-4 start: “I was a bad coach and we were a bad team.”

    #110462
    snowman
    Participant

    My predictions…

    Green Bay 26
    San Francisco 20
    Jimmy Garappolo poops himself on national TV and Aaron Rodgers bundles his home and auto insurance in the fourth quarter.

    Kansas City 34
    Tennessee 21
    Pat Mahomes throws a TD to everyone including Andy Reid and Derrick Henry is just not enough.

    Disclaimer: These predictions are solely the property of the poster and do not reflect the opinions of this network, the NFL or Elizabeth Warren.

    #110464
    zn
    Moderator

    #110472
    zn
    Moderator

    #110482
    zn
    Moderator

    Jason Cole@JasonCole62
    Factoid: The 49ers D allows only 5.2 yards per attempt for the season against combined offenses that average 6.7 yards per attempt. That -1.5 margin is the best since the 2008 Steelers. SF is nasty.

    ==

    #110490
    zn
    Moderator

    #110491
    zn
    Moderator

    Louis Riddick@LRiddickESPN
    The #Titans secondary has a hell of challenge ahead of them, but they play the kind of fundamental style that allows them to compete very well against explosive passing games like the #Chiefs have. So many things to contend with. Little margin for error. Great matchup. Must see!

    ==

    #110507
    zn
    Moderator

    #110523
    zn
    Moderator

    #110524
    zn
    Moderator

    Albert Breer@AlbertBreer
    Four championship game coaches. And one (Reid) has three-and-a-half times the head coaching experience of the other three (Shanahan, LaFleur, Vrabel) combined.

    So after I tweeted this, I decided to look up where these guys were when Reid took the Philly job in ’99. …

    Shanahan: Redshirt freshman WR at Duke.
    LaFleur: Redshirt freshman WR at Western Michigan.
    Vrabel: 3rd-year Steelers LB/Special teamer.

    #110536
    zn
    Moderator

    #110545
    zn
    Moderator

    #110549
    zn
    Moderator

    PFF: The Tennessee Titans’ offensive line has transformed their offense

    SAM MONSON

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-tennessee-titans-offensive-line-has-transformed-their-offense

    Few teams are as unrecognizable in playoff guise from their early-season selves as the Tennessee Titans, a team that was once 2-4 before making a quarterback change and marching into the playoffs to knock off the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens on their way to the AFC Championship game.

    Obviously, multiple things have changed for the Titans, most of them for the better. Derrick Henry has been on a historic run of record-setting yardage totals over the past few games. Ryan Tannehill was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the game from the moment he assumed the starting job and actually ended the regular season as the highest-graded passer at PFF, and the defense has actually taken steps forward when the games mattered most. But one of the most significant changes — the improvement in offensive line play — is flying under the radar.

    After six weeks, when the team was two games under .500, the highest-graded member of the line was center Ben Jones at 75.5, and three of the five starters had a run-blocking grade under 50.0. Over that same span, Derrick Henry ranked just 11th in rushing yardage and was averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt (34th).

    From Week 7 onwards, though, the only member of their line who has earned an overall PFF grade under 70.0 is rookie guard Nate Davis, and he is the only one of the group who has surrendered more than two sacks. Their tackles, Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin, have each earned grades above 80.0 and have been grading well as both run blockers and pass protectors. Left guard Rodger Saffold looked like a disaster early in the year, but since he recovered from injury and got comfortable within the system, he has looked like the player who earned his free-agent deal in the first place.

    In the playoffs, Lewan has the highest run-blocking grade of any player to have appeared in both weeks of action (90.5), and Conklin is second. It’s not a coincidence that the line suddenly dominating has corresponded with Henry’s historic yardage total.

    Take a look at this play for a good example of how blocking can influence rushing production even though stats might make it look like it’s all Derrick Henry. This is a 10-yard run on first down, and it’s certainly a strong carry, but look at what Lewan does to his man to open the rushing lane that Henry is able to run into.

    Lewan takes his man eight yards off the line of scrimmage, and the path of the back is exactly where those two were supposed to be at the line. If that block isn’t as crushing as it is, Henry has to do work to even find a crease at the line instead of continuing to build a head of steam in a straight line along his original path. Lewan dominated so thoroughly that his man is actually the guy who makes the tackle 10 yards downfield, which, by the way, is a reason why tackle totals are a terrible statistic. This isn’t a hustle play; this is a guy getting killed in the run game and stopping the ball carrier he could have dealt with at the line of scrimmage 10 yards downfield. But I digress.

    If we’re looking at this game through the prism of stats, even advanced ones, it will look like this was the product of Henry rather than blocking. Henry gets contacted by the arm of diving linebacker Elandon Roberts as he crosses the line of scrimmage, and then he gets more concrete contact from Kyle Van Noy two yards into the run, so depending on your definition of “after contact,” Henry is gaining at least eight of his ten yards on this play after contact. But Roberts is trying to fill a huge hole from a distance because of the block of Lewan, and Van Noy can’t ever get clear of the block of Jonnu Smith, and he can’t make a tackle because of it. Henry is able to brush aside that contact because the block of Lewan, in particular, gave him a huge pathway to get going. Had that block been even close to a stalemate, Henry would have had to adjust his path at the line of scrimmage and had no kind of momentum when contact came. Blocking directly influences numbers like yards after contact and even broken tackles.

    The Baltimore game is a similar story. Henry gets some hard yards up the middle on this play, but the blocking is excellent, and Lewan, again, is the person who buys him the crease to gain seven yards from a play that typically earns a lot less. Lewan perfectly executes his cutoff block and is able to wall off his man and hold his ground enough to open a crease for Henry to hit at pace and keep trucking.

    This isn’t meant to diminish Henry’s achievements. After all, the whole idea of football is that an entire unit executing their individual assignments will have maximum success. However, it is meant to put his historic statistics into some kind of context. Equally, there were runs across both games where Henry was the primary reason for positive yardage, but we must factor all of these things in together, rather than award all of the credit to any one individual.

    Henry has been the beneficiary of some truly excellent blocking to gain the yardage he has, and that’s true even when some statistics would suggest he is doing all the work himself. Just because a back is gaining a lot of the yards after contact does not necessarily mean the blocking was anything other than excellent, which is why PFF grades are such a vital part of the equation.

    Ultimately, the focus will be on Henry, and to a lesser extent, Ryan Tannehill, when the Titans try and upset their third consecutive opponent. Both of those players have had huge effects on this offense, and as a team, they have shown they can win with either taking the starring role, but we need to remember that they have both been able to succeed because of the platform given to them because of the transformation of the offensive line.

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