Setting up Lions vs Rams playoff game

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  • #148641
    zn
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    This is from the full article (by Tice), which is here: Rams “reset” is ahead of schedule

    This bit is about the Lions game and so fits here too:

     The Lions went from blitzing at the 17th-highest rate in the first half of the season to the fourth-highest rate and are currently blitzing at a 35.2% clip on third and fourth down, the second-highest behind only the aforementioned Giants.

    The Lions defense will also be an interesting matchup for this Rams unit. Because while this Lions unit still ranks just 24th in combined explosive and successful play rate since their bye week, they rank ninth in success rate defending the run against three-wide-receiver personnel groupings. That’s what the Rams run almost exclusively (more than 95% of their snaps). But in the Rams’ favor, the Lions are pretty poor in defending the duo run concept, allowing the fourth-most EPA per play against it.

    The Lions pass defense can still be up and down and is always susceptible to explosive plays because of the preference for playing man coverage or blitzing, which could play right into Stafford’s hands (no quarterback loves to gash blitzing defensive coordinators more than Stafford). But being simple is also a no-go against a thrower of Stafford’s caliber. It will be an interesting chess match to watch play out in the passing game, with the run game coming down to how quickly the inconsistent Lions linebackers can fill the run (or how Glenn can change the picture on the Rams offensive line). Luckily for the Lions, the one gigantic thorn in their side this year, having to defend out of their base defense with three linebackers, will likely not be a thing picked on by the Rams and their light personnel groupings.

    But this is why Rams general manager Les Snead and McVay traded for Stafford and why the Rams have evolved their attack. The potential questions or roadblocks that might have faced this offense (and team) before not only have answers but now have definitive answers. They have the ability to not only pivot but also excel at whatever they want to pivot to. It has led the Rams to the playoffs with a real chance to make some noise.

    #148644
    zn
    Moderator

    Lions …  are currently blitzing at a 35.2% clip on third and fourth down, the second-highest behind only the aforementioned Giants.

    Blaine Grisak@bgrisakTST
    Rams starters weren’t very sharp in Week 17 against a Giants defense that blitzed heavily. Over the back-half of the season, the Lions went from 17th in blitz-rate to 4th. On 3rd and 4th down, they are behind only Wink Martindale. Stafford is 14th against the blitz in 2023.
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