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ZooeyModeratorI have the Dallas Denver game on in the distance, and the Broncos are dominating them. I did not see that coming, but it pleases me.
ZooeyModeratorThat one is on TV where I live, of course.
I would flip over to the GB KC game from time-to-time, if that was easy to do.
ZooeyModeratorLOL
ZooeyModeratorLooked good to go to me in those drills.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he is not 100%, but he could go.
I bet it has more to do with the advantage of unveiling him for the first time against the 49ers next week.
ZooeyModeratorThat pass to Bruce to start the 99 playoff game against MN is a Top 10 highlight of my Rams fan life. It might be #1.
ZooeyModeratorThat French recipe looks terribly boring to me, but the English recipe looks interesting.
^^^ I would like credit for typing that sentence because I’m pretty sure I’m the first person in world history to ever express that sentence.
I came across one of Sohla’s videos before. I don’t remember what it was for. Bread, maybe. In any event, Sohla will be one of my early draft picks in the post-apocalypse fantasy league because she can cook with nothing.
Also…I’m sure you’ve told us before, but I forgot. Why did you choose the handle Agamemnon?
ZooeyModeratorI think that is likely to happen with OBJ. His value now is lower than it will be at the end of the season, I think.
I also think there is good reason for that. We’re halfway through the season, and he would have to learn a new system, and an OC will have to adjust what they’re doing. I don’t think that makes sense for the Rams. They would have to divert resources and energy and chemistry to develop OBJ just to trade him. I don’t think that’s a distraction worth taking on when the goal is the Super Bowl. That might make sense for a team with lower season ambitions, but I think there is a greater chance of that blowing up the Rams than making them better. Just my opinion.
I think it makes the most sense for a team that believes they are on the rise, and believe OBJ is a piece that they can build with into the future. Like the Raiders. Or 9ers.
In any event, I don’t think he will clear waivers. I think he will get claimed for LA has a stab at him anyway, but I just can’t see the Rams making that move.
ZooeyModeratorThat doesn’t make sense, Billy. He’s free right now. Why would any team pass by a free OBJ and then turn around and give picks to the Rams for him?
ZooeyModeratorThis is a pretty good piece from CBS.
Looks like there is a good chance he will be in the NFC West. But I’d be very surprised if he makes it as far as the Rams. If he does, that may mean that nobody wants him. I think the Raiders make a LOT of sense. The Rams, otoh, make NO sense, imo.
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After less than three seasons with the Browns, Odell Beckham Jr.’s time in Cleveland is officially over. The Browns announced on Friday that Beckham will be released, which means he’s soon going to be playing for another team.Unfortunately for Beckham, though, he probably isn’t going to get to pick his next team and that’s because he has to clear waivers before he can become a free agent and it seems unlikely that a player of his caliber will end up clearing waivers.
If you’re not familiar with how the waiver process works, it’s pretty simple: Each team will have a chance to make a claim for Beckham and any team interested in adding him will have to make their claim by Monday.
The waiver order is basically like the draft: The worst team picks first and you go from there. Right now, the Lions, Texans and Dolphins currently have the top three spots in waiver order, which means they’ll have the first crack at Beckham (If the Lions and Dolphins were to both put in a claim for Beckham, the Lions would get him since they have the higher waiver priority).
Although those three teams are at the top, it’s hard to imagine any bad team wanting to add Beckham so if he gets claimed, it will probably be by a playoff contender.
With that in mind, we’re going to rank the top 10 landing spots for Beckham based on where each team falls in the waiver order. In this ranking, the Seahawks are at the top because they have the highest waiver priority (If you want to see the full waiver order, be sure to click here).
Seahawks (waiver order: Ninth): Over the past few years, the Seahawks have desperately been looking to add another receiver. Not only did the Seahawks once sign Josh Gordon, but Russell Wilson once made it clear that he also wanted them to sign Antonio Brown, so you can bet he would be thrilled to get Beckham on his team. Also, it should be noted that Wilson’s close friend Daniel Mogg, who is the co-host of Wilson’s podcast, posted an old picture this week of Wilson hanging out with Beckham.
I’m guessing the timing of this picture isn’t a coincidence. At 3-5, the Seahawks could definitely stand to make a splashy move and adding Beckham would definitely qualify. Also, with Wilson expected to be returning in Week 10, it would be a nice welcome-back present for him.
49ers (waiver order: 12th): The 49ers actually thought about trading for Odell back in 2019, but they weren’t willing to give up the draft compensation it was going to take to get him from the Giants. Two years later, Odell might not be quite the same player, but the 49ers might be able to overlook that considering that they’ll be getting him for free because they won’t have to trade for him. Adding Odell to the 49ers’ offense with Deebo Samuel would probably open things up for the run game, which is something Kyle Shanahan would probably like.
Colts (waiver order: 14th): Beckham might not be a good match for an emotional quarterback like Carson Wentz, but the Colts could definitely stand to add a receiving weapon right now. Michael Pittman currently leads the team with 658 receiving yards, but after that, no other player on the team even has 325 yards. If the Colts were to claim Beckham, that would give their air attack a much-needed boost.
Patriots (waiver order: 15th): If Bill Belichick has proven one thing in his coaching career, it’s that he’ll add any player if he thinks that player can help the team. Getting talented players on the cheap is Belichick’s specialty and that’s what he would be doing here with Beckham. Yes, the Patriots have plenty of receivers right now, but they don’t have a clear-cut No. 1 guy and that’s what Beckham would likely become.
Chiefs (waiver order: 18th): The high-powered Chiefs offense hasn’t looked so high-powered this year. Patrick Mahomes has two big targets in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but after that, things get kind of dicey. Adding Beckham to this offense might be exactly what Kansas City needs to turn things around this year. The Chiefs have been searching far and wide for a No. 2 receiver behind Hill and that search would presumably end with the addition of Beckham.
Saints (waiver order: 23rd): If Beckham falls down this far on the waiver wire, it’s hard to imagine him dropping any farther. For one, the Saints actually tried to make a deal for him before Tuesday’s trade deadline, so we definitely know that they’re interested. Also, with Michael Thomas now out for the season, the Saints could use a big-play threat like Beckham.
Raiders (waiver order: 26th): The Raiders have had to deal with a lot of drama over the past few weeks, so they might not want to add someone with Beckham’s personality to the locker room, but he would certainly add a boost to a team that lost its biggest deep threat this week when Henry Ruggs III was released after being charged with DUI resulting in a death.
Packers (waiver order: 28th): When it comes to Green Bay’s offense, it seems like the only thing anyone has been talking about recently is the fact that Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a true No. 2 receiver over the past few years. Adding Beckham would certainly fix that problem. The Packers aren’t exactly known for making splashy moves, but they’ve proven that they’ll listen to Rodgers — they traded for Randall Cobb — and if Rodgers asks them to claim Beckham, it will be interesting to see that they do.
Ravens (waiver order: 29th): Fans in Baltimore are clamoring for the Ravens to add Odell and it appears Lamar Jackson is also on board. The Ravens quarterback told the team’s fans to let the organization know how much they want Odell.
The Ravens have a pretty good set of receivers with Marquise Brown, Rashod Batemand and Sammy Watkins, but two of those three guys have had trouble staying healthy. Not only would Beckham add some serious depth, but he would give the Ravens a strong one-two punch at the position.
Rams (waiver order: 30th): The only way the Rams are getting a crack at Beckham is if 29 other teams pass on him, which probably isn’t going to happen. However, if that does happen, don’t be surprised if they grab him. The Rams have already made it clear that they’re all-in on 2021 and this is a team that has proven that it will pay any price to get a talented player, so you have to think they’ll happily grab Beckham knowing they don’t have to give up any draft picks to do it.
If a team does claim Beckham, they’ll also have to claim his current contract, which currently has $7.25 million remaining, according to a report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Schefter added the Browns worked out an agreement that will void Beckham’s final two seasons and make him a free agent in 2022.
ZooeyModeratorWait… we have to turn the clocks back tonight which means we have to wait an extra hour for kickoff.
I hate time changes.
ZooeyModeratorBut those clips (and I didn’t watch them all the way through) look to me like people who just don’t like Rogers personally, and are piling on.
I’ll bet if they liked Rogers personally, their opinions about this would be shaped differently.
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Fwiw, in the 2nd clip, at the 6 minute mark, I think the dude
has an interesting take on it.w
vThat was the part I was referring to in the beginning of my post. That’s all “lawyer speak.” He knew what the question was, and he evaded the answer on a language technicality, and gave an answer that he knew would be interpreted as “Yes, I am vaccinated.”
He can maybe get away with that in a court of law, but not in my personal estimation. He deliberately misled his audience to a false conclusion.
ZooeyModeratorNahh. There’s no splitting hairs here on the subjectivity of Truth.
He was asked if he was vaccinated, and he knew perfectly well what that question meant. He answered, “Yes, I’m immunized,” and he knew perfectly well how that answer would be interpreted. It was a deliberate lie for the public.
But I don’t care.
The NFL office, and the GB Packers knew that was untrue also, and they let it go, so they are accomplices. And I still don’t care.
This matters to me ONLY if Rogers lied to his teammates and people he encounters, and jeopardized their health.
As far as I’m concerned, Rogers took a gamble, and lost. That’s its own karma.
I already knew he is a dick. I mean…his own mother and brother hate him. This doesn’t change anything in my estimation of the man on a personal level. I already had a low opinion of him, and this is par for the course, more or less.
But those clips (and I didn’t watch them all the way through) look to me like people who just don’t like Rogers personally, and are piling on.
I’ll bet if they liked Rogers personally, their opinions about this would be shaped differently.
November 4, 2021 at 3:50 pm in reply to: Stafford thread (starting 10/21, going into week 7) #133649
ZooeyModeratorIf Stafford’s so good, how come he throws incompletions? Huh?
ZooeyModeratorThat is great.
The DB has outside leverage on a short route, and Kupp fakes outside, then inside, then cuts outside. The DB is in the right place, bites on the fake inside, has his eyes on Stafford…sees Stafford let it go, and it’s just too late. This DB did everything right on this play, and Kupp kicked him out of the car a mile outside of town, and made him walk home. Kupp has more than 5 yards of separation on a 5-yard pass.
I’m starting to think Cooper Kupp is good enough to be an everyday starter in this league.
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This reply was modified 4 years, 5 months ago by
Zooey.
ZooeyModerator2 entirely different schemes?
November 3, 2021 at 8:27 pm in reply to: Who will replace Tutu Atwell as the LA Rams return man? #133629
ZooeyModeratorMaybe Von Miller can return kicks.
ZooeyModerator———
Speaking of idiocy, I see Role-Model to millions of cheese-head kids,
Aaron-Rogers, was relying on a
vaccination-alternative of some sort.And so it goes.
w
vI wish him a full recovery, long and arduous though it may be.
ZooeyModeratorThere’s a report he was driving 156 miles per hour.
w
vI’m no forensics expert, but one look at that Corvette, and he was clearly going triple digits.
It’s a damn tragedy. A 23-year old woman incinerated. Dude’s girlfriend in serious condition. He’s just lost everything. Everything. And there’s more hell to come for everybody.
Humans. If I was a Cosmic Regulator, I would demand that the manufacturer of humans install a greater supply of wisdom in them before they could be street legal. It’s bad enough that we have floods, famines, and diseases without human idiocy added to the mix.
November 3, 2021 at 12:44 pm in reply to: Who will replace Tutu Atwell as the LA Rams return man? #133612
ZooeyModeratorI’m at the point where I would be happy if the Rams just took the ball at the 25 on every single kickoff, and on punts, either do a Fair Catch, or let it roll. Statistically, it doesn’t seem to make much difference, and why risk injury or a fumble? This entire season, there have been a total of 2 KO returns for a TD. Guess how many have ended with the returner tackled inside the 25? More than two, I bet.
The KO returner with the highest avg this year is averaging 28 yards/return. Assuming those returns start with 2 yards, one way or the other, of the goal line, let’s say that means he gets it out to the 28 yard line on average. BFD. Just take it at the 25.
Punts are even worse.
If you have one of those talented, once-in-a-decade guys, okay. But otherwise, forget it.
And do NOT put Kupp back there. FFS.
November 3, 2021 at 12:33 pm in reply to: Jackson, 34, was willing to stay with the Rams, but Rams opted to move on #133610
ZooeyModeratorI think this was a really bad decision by the Rams.
And when Kupp breaks down, they will regret it.w
vI agree with that. And I also wonder WTF is actually going on here because…why cut him? What on earth does that accomplish?
If it’s true he was willing to ride out the year with the Rams, then the Rams cut him because…what? A bad influence on the team? A lousy work ethic? An inability or unwillingness to fill a role in the offense? It’s not a cap move, I don’t think. His number was pretty small.
Seems like there’s more to this story because it makes no sense to cut a veteran receiver who provides depth, if nothing else.
Something else is going to come out. The Rams aren’t stupid.
ZooeyModeratorCan’t help but think of Leonard Little. He was able to attain redemption.
For some reason, this incident looks worse.
ZooeyModerator
ZooeyModeratoryeah. wow. donald will make miller better. but for the first time in a long time, donald has someone who could actually make him better as well. depending on how miller plays in the second half of the season i really would like to see him sign a 2-3 year deal with the rams. that could be one helluva front seven for the next couple years.
Starting to feel better about this, not that I was opposed. I just have been wondering what Von Miller still has left after 10+ years and a couple major injuries. I don’t watch games the Rams aren’t playing until the playoffs. Snippets of things, but not enough to form opinions about individual players. So I wondered.
But AFC Defensive Player of the Month for September. That means something.
I don’t know about anybody else, but I’m looking forward to watching the rest of this season.
ZooeyModeratorSome Xmas shopping ideas:

ZooeyModerator
ZooeyModeratorAFC Defensive Player of the Month: September
ZooeyModeratorVon is a force multiplier
There are videos and a diagram embedded at the source if you want to see those. I’m not up for copying that many videos over here individually, and don’t really think they are essential. Personally. But there’s the link.Von Miller Can Turn the Rams Defense Into a Nightmare
Los Angeles’s offense was already loaded. Now its defense is, too.By Ben Solak Nov 2, 2021, 6:20am EDT
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Rams general manager Les Snead is sending multiple picks to acquire a star defensive talent at the NFL trade deadline.
It’s a headline from a few years ago, when Snead sent multiple first-round picks to the Jacksonville Jaguars to acquire disgruntled star cornerback Jalen Ramsey—but it’s also a headline from yesterday, as Snead sent second- and third-round picks in the upcoming draft for Broncos edge rusher Von Miller. Of course, when Snead snagged Ramsey, he was getting a 25-year-old corner in his athletic prime—the best player at his position. In Von, he’s getting a 32-year-old pass rusher who once was the best player at his position and isn’t any longer.
The Rams Keep Carving Their Own Path in the NFL Roster Arms Race
But it’s easy to say that Von isn’t as good as he once was—and it’s certainly true! But “not as good as he once was” can still be really, really good when that player is Von Miller. Von isn’t a shadow of what he once was. He’s a doggone good player who, even off of a 2020 Achilles injury, looks like a double-digit sack producer. That’s what the Rams paid for, and that’s what they will get.Von was the poster boy for bendy outside rushers for most of his prime, and he still has that incredible bend along the outside. Few players in the league can flatten their rush track and explode to the quarterback the way Miller can, as we can see on these rushes against Las Vegas OT Brandon Parker.
This is a clear passing situation, which allows Miller to tee off from a wide outside alignment and win the race to the corner. With no tight end in place to chip Miller, that race is an easy win—but it’s Miller’s ability to turn all of his forward momentum on a tight corner and into the quarterback that has long made him such a dangerous pass rusher.
But everyone knows the book on Von, and accordingly, he gets plenty of tight end chips and tackles flying to the outside trying to beat him in the race to the corner. Von has been such a good rusher for so long because he has counters and changeups that build off of the threat of that explosive outside rush. The older he gets, the more he relies on those counters, using block recognition and varied technique to win.
The speed-to-power rush is the primary move here. Miller has always had a tremendous power rush to pair with his explosiveness and bend, and when tackles are sitting back on their heels worried about his speed, he can easily knock them back into the quarterback. He did it multiple times against Jacksonville and its quality right tackle, Jawaan Taylor. With Taylor taking deep sets and fearing the outside rush, Miller regularly deposited him into Trevor Lawrence’s lap.
If a tackle oversets even farther in fear of the outside rush, then Miller doesn’t even need to rush with power—he can just use his wicked change-of-direction skills to knife inside the tackle and shoot for the quarterback early in the down. When quarterbacks quickly hitch up in the pocket to protect themselves from Miller’s presence on the outside rush, they often play right into Miller’s hands, as he’s waiting for them on the inside attack.
This is why Miller has retained his high rates of pressure and disruptions, even if he has passed his physical peak. Miller’s 22 total pressures against true pass sets is tied for seventh-most among league edge rushers, per Pro Football Focus; his win rate is at 29.9 percent, which is the 11th-best mark in the league. Don’t get it twisted—he’s still got wicked physical traits. But it’s his athleticism, along with the technical prowess, that have made him such a dynamic pass rusher for so long. As such, we can say with confidence that he’s the best edge rusher to ever play next to Rams star defensive tackle Aaron Donald. That’s a frightening thought.
It’s frightening because of what Donald has done for pass rushers throughout his career. After L.A. traded star outside rusher Robert Quinn in 2018, the Rams have largely gone in the bargain bin at the position. They acquired Dante Fowler Jr. via trade, and he churned out 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in 2019, and in the 19 games he’s played in Atlanta since, he has five total sacks and six total tackles for loss. Clay Matthews also joined the Rams in 2019 and at age 33, delivered eight sacks in 13 games, his most effective season since 2014.
In 2020, the Rams cycled in Leonard Floyd, an ex-first-round pick who struggled to meet expectations in a Vic Fangio–coached defense in Chicago. The Rams’ new defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley, was Floyd’s positional coach under Fangio in Chicago for two seasons. Staley was able to finally unlock Floyd in Los Angeles with a little help from Donald: Floyd hit double-digit sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (11) in 2020, both for the first time in his career, and the Rams doled out a four-year, $64 million extension accordingly.
The Von trade isn’t a reflection on Floyd’s performance in 2021. Floyd has 6.5 sacks in eight games, and is well on his way to posting career numbers yet again. Rather, Von is a force multiplier for both Floyd and Donald—players to whom the Rams already have multiyear financial commitments. Von will be an unrestricted free agent after this season and therefore may play just this one season with the Rams, but he will benefit greatly from the Donald boost just as so many players have before him.
There are only a few obstacles to reaching unprecedented levels of defensive line insanity for Los Angeles. The first is figuring out where exactly to play Von and Floyd on base downs. Von has taken 292 of his 323 snaps this season (90 percent) off the left side of the defense (against the offense’s right tackle). Floyd has taken 375 of his 407 snaps on the same side of the line (92 percent). Something’s gotta give there.
Given Von’s proven success and veteran status, as opposed to Floyd’s recent resurgence, I’d imagine the Rams kick Von over to the opposite side. Von missed all of 2020, but in the three seasons prior, he played at least 110 snaps on the right side of the defense. Switching sides can be a tough ask and may require a few weeks of onboarding, but Von should be more than up for the job. Von on the right will take second-year man Terrell Lewis and third-year man Ogbonnia Okoronkwo off of the field, and while Lewis is a flashy player, the Rams should feel fine with that exchange. Neither holds a candle to Von as a pass rusher, and he has them beat as a run defender as well.
The next riddle to figure out is what exactly to do on passing downs, and that’s where this trade gets really exciting. Staley was with the Bears when they used Floyd as a “spinner”: a player athletic enough to stand up as a linebacker and play in the second level or push up onto the line of scrimmage as a potential blitzer. Blitz-heavy teams love to use spinners—Melvin Ingram III and T.J. Watt in Pittsburgh are great examples—to screw with protection rules and counts from opposing offensive lines. Protections are built assuming that your most dangerous pass rushers are the two guys coming off the edges, so moving your best rushers around takes advantage of that assumption. Here’s a great clip of Floyd from Brandon Thorn’s article on the Fangio defense from The Athletic a few seasons ago. Floyd is lined up as a stand-up rusher over the guard on the same side of the ball as Khalil Mack. Mack and Floyd run a twist, and Floyd gets a free shot at the quarterback.
With Floyd and Donald in hand last season, Staley and the Rams could get mighty funky with their fronts. They’d isolate Donald as a defensive end and put all their other rushers on the other side of the ball; then, they’d do the same thing, but with Floyd as the isolated rusher. They’d ask Floyd to use his explosiveness to crash inside on stunts, freeing up Donald to loop around the outside and take his free shot at the quarterback. On this Leonard Floyd sack from Steven Ruiz’s article on the 2020 Rams under Staley, running back David Montgomery is unavailable to offer chip help to the right tackle, as he (and the rest of the Bears line) are worried about a looping Donald. Floyd wins his rep, and with Donald securing the quarterback’s escape route, gets an easy sack.
On these clear passing downs, blitz packages have been money for the 2021 Rams. When sending five-plus rushers this season, the Rams have 13 total sacks, 58 pressures, and five forced fumbles—only the Bucs and the Cardinals, two teams blitzing at much higher rates than the Rams, are producing at similar volume. They’ve gotten a sack on 17.8 percent of those rushes (best in the league), and a pressure on 69 percent (third best). On those blitz packages, we often see the Rams twist their line in front of the blitzers, with the intent of manipulating protection rules into predictable checks. Those checks create one-on-ones that the Rams can predict and exploit.
Take this third-and-10 rep against the Texans. The Rams line Floyd (no. 54) up way outside the right tackle, and then put five potential rushers on the line of scrimmage over the ball and to the opposite side of the field. The Texans understandably slide their protection away from Floyd and toward Donald and the heavy numbers of the Rams, which gives Floyd the one-on-one for the sack.
That one-on-one was expected; almost guaranteed. The Texans are keeping the back in to pass protect, and the tight end is helping chip the opposite edge rusher. But with safety Taylor Rapp (no. 24) blitzing to occupy the running back, Floyd has an unobstructed outside edge to attack. He executes one of his favorite rushes—the cross-chop to get around right tackle Charlie Heck—and bears down on quarterback Davis Mills. Mills has little room to step up, given the interior twist the Rams ran with Donald (99) and Greg Gaines (91) to muddy the pocket. The opposite edge rusher is even taking a wide, patient path to contain Mills should he try to escape to that side. The alignment and activity offered Floyd the one-on-one, and he won it.
Von is a force multiplier in these contexts. He’s a devastating individual rusher, so the presence of Donald should help him see more one-on-ones, which he will win even more often than Floyd. But Von is such a dangerous rusher that chip help from tight ends and running backs releasing in routes will likely go to him, which should provide easier wins for Floyd on the other side. On passing downs, the Rams can now twist and stunt not just with Donald and Floyd, but with Donald and Von from standard fronts; in funky fronts, they can place Floyd as a stand-up interior rush with Von on the same side of the formation, while leaving Donald isolated on the opposite side. Von, like Floyd, is a devastating crasher on stunts because of his velocity and physicality—and when he knifes into those interior gaps, he has the bend to flatten his rush and still get to the quarterback.
There’s no schematic solution to all this. It’s essentially impossible to provide chip help to both sides for the entire game while also devoting multiple men to Donald on the interior. Eventually, someone on the offensive line has to survive a one-on-one fight, and against Donald and Miller, that’s a losing proposition for most offensive linemen. You either have the offensive line to block up the Rams’ front, or you don’t, and even if you do, the Rams can send all of these bodies flying in every direction, along with a blitzer or two, and test your communication and recognition as well. This is a nightmare, and it lasts for all four quarters.
The Rams’ defense is evolving into a new beast under defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. All season they’ve been riddling out what works and what doesn’t as they’re still recovering from the offseason departure of Staley and many of his key role players. Now, their late-season upswing will be kick-started by the acquisition of yet another star talent, yet another weapon to add to their already terrifying arsenal. With Von in hand, they are a defense of headaches that cannot be beaten on the chessboard or exposed for its weakness; their stars are simply too many and too bright to be ignored or snuffed out. The offense is loaded, and the defense is too. The Rams are ready for their Super Bowl run.
ZooeyModeratorThe Rams Keep Carving Their Own Path in the NFL Roster Arms Race
Draft picks, be damned: Los Angeles traded two 2022 picks for Broncos pass rusher Von Miller. Is this reckless short-term thinking? Or a novel roster-building strategy more teams should consider?[www.theringer.com]
Kevin Clark
Draft picks, be damned: Los Angeles traded two 2022 picks for Broncos pass rusher Von Miller. Is this reckless short-term thinking? Or a novel roster-building strategy more teams should consider?
A few years after Nick Saban left the NFL, he explained he simply did not like the professional game because he realized he could not control his own destiny. There is a draft, there’s free agency, and there’s a lot of luck involved and far too many unknowns and variables for a man with such a deep hatred of unknowns and variables. Earlier this season, Saban referred to the score of the game as an “external factor.” He is a man who believes in executing exactly what is in front of him. He could not control his own destiny in the NFL, so he left for a place where he could, and he has.
I am bringing this up because there is a team that has found a way to do the closest thing to controlling your own destiny in a sport in which that’s not supposed to be possible. They are the Los Angeles Rams and they have now traded five 2022 draft picks for NFL veterans. On Monday, they traded a second- and third-round pick for seven-time All-Pro pass rusher Von Miller. It was a typical Rams move: Very few people saw it coming, but once it was reported the Rams had given up a few draft picks for an established player, it checked out. Of their own current crop of picks in 2022, not counting compensatory picks, the Rams’ first selection will come in the fifth round. It is a good life to be a Rams college scout.
Von Miller is not the best pass rusher in the NFL. He is not, as Aaron Donald or Jalen Ramsey are, among the best at his position. But he has 28 pressures and five sacks this season, ranking tied for 19th in the NFL in each category. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s tied for 12th in pass rush win rate. The Rams defense evolved from Broncos coach Vic Fangio’s scheme. Miller will not be an MVP candidate in Los Angeles, as quarterback Matthew Stafford is, but he’ll help the 7-1 Rams, who already have one of the most talented defenses in football. This trade might be an overpay (the Rams are likely giving up more partly because the Broncos are eating most of Miller’s salary) but it could also take them to a Super Bowl from an unusually stacked NFC.
More than anything to do with Miller and how much he has left, though, I’m intrigued by what the move means about team-building in 2021. Through the years, I’ve come to learn how few teams are trying to win a championship each season. A few years ago, a smart NFL person estimated that only 10 or so teams were actively trying to win the Super Bowl in any given season. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan said on the Flying Coach podcast the number is about five, and that the other teams are trying to survive. In his new book on the Patriots dynasty, It’s Better to Be Feared, Seth Wickersham writes that Jimmy Johnson told Bill Belichick that if you just get out of the way, 20 teams will remove themselves from competition. Job preservation, saving some money, and not doing anything too weird that’ll get you noticed are guiding principles in many front offices. This trade might be the new normal for the 12 or so teams that haven’t removed themselves from competition. This is what trying to win looks like in 2021, and it applies not just to the Rams, but to every team trying to have a Super Bowl roster.
It’s simplistic to say the Rams are all in. They were branded all in in 2018, and have been every subsequent year. They’ve never taken their chips out of the pot—it’s how they operate. I think they’ve done what Saban dreamed of doing: They know what they are getting in almost every transaction. This tactic has been tried before—George Allen’s Washington teams in the 1970s were built on picks-for-players trades. Incredibly, he once traded the same picks twice and made the playoffs with the players acquired from the transactions before anyone noticed (the team was later fined for trading “bogus” picks). But the Rams are unique in the modern NFL. Draft picks have become a precious commodity, increasingly so after the 2011 collective bargaining agreement that made rookie contracts cost-controlled and cheap. Rookies became the biggest bargain in the sport even if they were still inexperienced and unknowns.
The Rams have decided to bet big on experience and knowns. They have removed a layer of doubt from player acquisition, swapping picks for established players. They are paying a historically steep price for this strategy: They haven’t selected in the first round since 2016 and have traded away several more picks in later rounds. By prioritizing veterans, the Rams have built a roster with several players on lucrative deals—seven Rams average more than $10 million a year and six make more than $15 million, and this group does not include Miller, who is in the last few weeks of a $114 million deal he signed in 2016. The Broncos are paying almost all of the remaining $9.7 million that Miller is still owed from that deal, making the Rams’ cap cost almost nothing. This helps explain why a player like Miller, who is a few months from free agency, costs as much (or more) in draft capital as some better players.
“I think in the sports world right now, there’s been, whether it’s the tanking phenomenon or the draft-pick phenomenon, everyone wants this really long window, and you can’t be afraid to raise your hand and say, ‘You know what, this happened a little faster than we thought,’” Rams executive Kevin Demoff told me in 2019, just before his team played New England in the Super Bowl. Demoff told me that night that he thinks winning is the ultimate competitive advantage—what he means by that is the Patriots were helped along by players who wanted to play in a winning environment and would take less to do so.
This trade is not just about the Rams; it’s about the cost of doing business in the NFL and the barrier for entry to actually compete. I’ve long been obsessed with the “all in” phenomenon and what it means for team-building. Chiefs GM Brett Veach once told me that teams have to be what’s considered by most as “all in” every single year. It makes sense: Teams that are actually competing for championships are getting more aggressive. The salary cap, which exploded in the past decade before flattening in the past two years, will spike again later this decade. Big swings are the future, not an outlier. The NFL prevents stars from reaching true free agency with the franchise tag—you’ll never see Jalen Ramsey or Matthew Stafford hitting the open market in their prime—so picks-for-players trades are as good a strategy as any to acquire players of that caliber.
There is a type of arrogance in teams that think they can out-draft their competition. Over time, very few teams have been better at drafting than the average team. There are two ways to combat this: The strategy employed by the Sashi Brown–era Browns or, in a smaller window, the Miami Dolphins of the past few years, who collected as many picks as possible, trading back and taking more swings. Or, do what the Rams have done and don’t pick at all. There are many ways to build an NFL team—the Patriots ruled the draft by trading back and crushing after the first round. The Chiefs drafted most of their core but still trade firsts for established starters. There is no guaranteed path to success. The only thing you can say for certain about this Rams team is that if someone told you this trade was made and no one told you the teams involved, you’d have guessed the Rams were the team trading the picks.
This might start a mini–arms race in advance of the trade deadline as talented NFC teams look for help. Or it might be confirmation that no one is quite as aggressive as the Rams. But it is a sign of things to come. There is, as Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald wrote Monday, no reason for teams to wait for the offseason to make these sorts of trades. “If you are a playoff contender there is zero reason to wait until the next year to make a trade in the offseason or to overpay in free agency when there is so much fluctuation year to year in the NFL. Take the opportunity if it presents itself when you know you are good and that is what the Rams did here and continue to do,” Fitzgerald wrote. The Rams, in short, decided to control their own destiny.
ZooeyModeratorI will say that I think the Rams are gonna suck in 2025.
I’m willing to pay that tab if they win a Super Bowl, though.
ZooeyModeratorummm… hehehehehe… uhhhhhhhhhhhhh…
i hope he’s got something left in the tank. he very possibly could. he’s got 4.5 sacks midway through the season. his second half could be much better.
and ya know… reggie white signed with the packers his age 32 season. and had some pretty freaking good seasons after that. so he’s not necessarily done.
this season just got a lot more interesting.
Assuming he has something left…what this does, imo…is creates pass rush overload.
Donald up the middle, and pressure from one side from Lloyd. Now they have 3-point pressure. Both sides, and the middle.
So… now what? Double TE sets? I mean…be my guest.
3-point pressure is not a good thing if you are an OC.
This could potentially be very, very fun.
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Zooey.
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