Rodrigue: By trading Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford, Rams send clear messages

https://theathletic.com/2356069/2021/01/31/rams-goff-stafford-trade-lions/

There are a few ways to look at the Rams’ blockbuster trade for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, which will send Jared Goff, first-round draft picks in 2022 and 2023 and a third-round pick this year to Detroit. And they aren’t mutually exclusive.

Multiple sources confirmed to The Athletic the details of the trade, which was agreed to Saturday but cannot be made official until the start of the 2021 league year in March.

No. 1: The Rams are going all-in for a Super Bowl championship while they still have Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp under contract. Each of those core players is in his late 20s, and each is under contract through at least 2024. Also, left tackle Andrew Whitworth, 39, is expected to return next season but his future is uncertain after that.

Stafford has two years and $43 million remaining on his contract, which the Rams will inherit from the Lions, but people with knowledge of the Rams’ process believe that the salary-cap-strained team will look to add at least a one-year extension, because that would better distribute the money. That also would align Stafford with those other core players through at least the 2023 season, when he would be 35 years old.

Over the last two weeks, head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead were intentionally vague about Goff’s future. Those comments included a reiteration of their desire to improve at quarterback. In doing so, the Rams broadcast to the world — and especially other teams — that they were entering the quarterback market. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the Rams made it clear that nothing was off the table, and they held exploratory trade talks about Goff with multiple teams with that idea in mind.

No. 2: The Rams did not feel that Goff could get them any closer to a Super Bowl than what they achieved this year: a 10-6 record and a loss in the divisional round. And they felt it was better for their long-term future to essentially pay the Lions — via first-round picks — to make Goff and his contract go away.

No, the Rams won’t pick in the first round again until 2024 (unless they trade back in before that). And, because of the way the Rams’ personnel people structured Goff’s four-year, $134 million contract extension in 2019, the Rams will carry approximately $22 million in dead-cap money in 2021, plus another $8 million because they cut running back Todd Gurley last year. Goff’s contract will put four years and $106 million on the Lions’ books.

A league source told The Athletic on Saturday night that the Lions had as many as eight offers for Stafford, and each had a first-round pick included. Yet, the source said, the Rams’ offer, which included Goff, an extra first-round pick and an immediate third-round pick, “blew the others out of the water.” And the additional first-round pick sweetened it and made taking on the rest of Goff’s deal more palatable.

Trading first-round picks already was a roster-building model the Rams had leaned into. In 2016, when they drafted Goff No. 1 overall, the Rams swapped first-round picks with Tennessee and also gave the Titans their 2017 first-rounder. The Rams’ 2018 first-rounder went to New England for Brandin Cooks. Their 2019 first-rounder went to Atlanta in a pick swap. Then, in Oct. 2019, the Rams sent their 2020 and 2021 first-rounders to Jacksonville for Jalen Ramsey.

The Rams believe that they’ll win enough over the next couple of years to place them in the lower part of the first round of the draft, and they also don’t see much difference between the long-term development of late-first-round players compared to upper-to-middle second-round players. So, the Rams think it can be more beneficial to trade first-round picks for impact players like Ramsey, and now Stafford, and then depend on second-to-fourth-round picks to develop into starting roles and plug roster holes.

Trying that model again, this time by trading Goff, was worth it for the Rams. Led by McVay, whose opinion is priority No. 1, the Rams grew increasingly sure during the 2020 season that they needed to make a change at quarterback, and quickly.

There is a lot of gray area in any such transition. After all, Goff, whom the Rams drafted a year before McVay was hired — and who got a contract extension after just three seasons — helped lead the team to the Super Bowl two years ago.

But in 2019 and 2020, there was a growing sense, according to people within the organization, that as defenses began to “solve” McVay’s widely acclaimed offensive system and he began to counter-adjust, that Goff was falling behind.

The Rams had the NFL’s No. 1 defense in 2020, but finished 18th in scoring and had the ninth-most inconsistent offense in the league according to the Football Outsiders variance metric. That inconsistency needled at McVay, and the Rams’ inability to put the pieces together on offense was a point of stress throughout the year.

McVay especially became frustrated with Goff’s turnovers — 38 in his last 31 regular-season games, the most in the NFL during that span — and even issued public criticism of Goff for the first time after the Rams lost to San Francisco in Week 12.

“Our quarterback has to take better care of the football,” McVay all but spat.

McVay’s decision to speak critically in public about Goff for the first time wasn’t just a sign of things to come, but also seemed to serve as a message to his locker room, where some frustration rippled during the latter half of the season — the message being that an underperforming player would not be coddled, regardless of that player’s status.

There was also some belief that part of McVay’s frustration stemmed from the fact that the changes he made to the offense this season, which were supposed to ease Goff’s discomfort when facing pressure and help him progress into higher-probability plays, simply did not take. The turnovers persisted, even though Goff totaled a career-low in air-yards per attempt as the offense opted toward those shorter, lower-risk concepts. The Rams also lacked a true “deep threat” receiver who could have stretched the field, but that was by design, because they were moving toward those shorter pass concepts and catch-and-run plays.

“That’s not the world I want to live in,” McVay said, tellingly, during his exit interview in mid-January, of the Rams’ reliance on those higher-probability plays. “I think you have to create explosives. We have to create more.”

As the Rams prepared for the playoffs, reports of internal tension between McVay and Goff surfaced. Part of that had already bubbled to the surface when Goff bluntly remarked that he was not thrilled about McVay’s decision to start John Wolford in the wild-card round game vs. Seattle. Goff felt his surgically repaired thumb was functional enough to play, and he and McVay said that they had decided to agree to disagree on the situation and try to move forward.

A little over a week later, after the Rams lost to the Packers in the divisional round, NFL Network’s Steve Wyche reported that, according to a source, the McVay and Goff “marriage” was in need of some “counseling.”

And that made McVay’s excitement about Wolford, who started in place of the injured Goff in Week 17 and vs. Seattle, feel downright predictive of Saturday night’s trade.

It wasn’t about the scoreboard or stat sheet with Wolford (the Rams scored only 18 points against a porous Arizona defense). It seemed to be more about the way Wolford moved the ball, and moved in and out of the pocket, that re-affirmed the direction in which McVay already had begun to lean.

It’s as though Wolford showed McVay what was possible with a quarterback with a different skill set, in accordance with McVay’s personal expectations.

McVay appreciated Wolford’s processing speed and how, even when his pocket broke down, Wolford was able to move and reset his launch point. The Rams could run more of the longer-developing plays (which were absent from a Goff-led offense this year) with Wolford or a similarly mobile quarterback, one who could move away from the pressure without having the play fully break down in the process.

Defenses have successfully pressured Goff with four players — creating less favorable offensive situations downfield — but Wolford’s ability to move demanded more attention with extra rushers. Free rushers couldn’t cover the bootlegs the Rams love to use, because Wolford got into them faster and moved them away from that pressure when needed. Against the Cardinals, whose defensive game plan dared Wolford to throw in an effort to contain the Rams’ run game, McVay appreciated how his entire offense and the quarterback weren’t dependent on successfully running the ball.

Those also are qualities Stafford possesses, and the Rams hope to utilize them over the next two to three seasons, with Wolford’s small sample size serving as a piece of the blueprint.

The Rams are going all-in on that blueprint, and all-in on this window, by pivoting from the quarterback they drafted No. 1 just five years ago.

What a stunning sentence that is. What a stunning timeline, one that escalated slowly over the last two years, then quickly over the last two months, and then drew to a head when the details of the trade were agreed to in principle on Saturday at 7 p.m. Pacific, a source said. The results of it will be parsed for years.

Including this one:

No. 3: The hottest debate among Rams fans and pundits over the last two years began with the question: Is Goff holding McVay back?

Really, the only thing that mattered at the end of the day was whether McVay believed that the answer was “yes.” And, it seems, he did.

Live on @nflnetwork breaking down tonight's monster trade that sends to Matthew Stafford to the #Rams and two first-round draft picks, a third-round pick and Jared Goff (and his contract) to the #Lions. pic.twitter.com/u3KACNjfr2

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 31, 2021

Rampage2K-

Silver was just on NFL Network btw and didn’t have any kind words for McVay and Snead on how they handled this

Just checked a Lions message board to see how they are reacting …. they love it

The word “fleeced” seems to be the most popular over there right now.

𝒥𝒾𝓂 𝐸𝓋𝑒𝓇𝑒𝓉𝓉@Jim_Everett
Jared, don’t drink the water!

Rich Hammond@Rich_Hammond
I don’t think a team gets to keep making mistakes and then celebrate them with, “We got out of it.” Gurley was one thing. The knee was bad fortune. But this?

Spotrac@spotrac
Todd Gurley earned $32M in 2 years of his 6 yr, 71.5M contract.

Brandin Cooks earned $42M in 2 years of his $85M contract.

Jared Goff earned $57M in 2 years of his 6 yr, $161M contract.

The #Rams should just offer 2 year deals…

Peter King@peter_king
Carolina was very interested in Stafford, and competed for him. Denver too. Indy and SF as well. The Rams had to pay more than they wanted (obviously).

Peter Schrager@PSchrags
Carolina, Denver, Washington, Indianapolis, and others called and inquired on Stafford. No deal was quite as overwhelming as LA’s and Stafford had a preference to be w McVay and in LA.
In the end, the Lions org wasn’t going to end on foul terms w their franchise’s greatest QB.

Mike Sando@SandoNFL
#Rams just won a playoff game with John Wolford starting & Jared Goff taking over with bad thumb. Of course they think they can get to SB with Stafford. But every yr is different, lots of staff changes, who knows? I like their chances better and think they’re way more interesting

Jeff Darlington@JeffDarlington
Just talked to Jared Goff — he has already spoken to Lions coach Dan Campbell and several other members of the Lions’ staff. Based on those conversations, they very clearly view him as their starter moving forward. Physical coming soon. Sounds like they’re fired up to have him.

Matt Bowen@MattBowen41
Could see the #Rams adding a true vertical threat this offseason (free agency/draft). Throw the deep post off play-action with Stafford there.

Peter Schrager@PSchrags
More details trickling in…

Stafford wanted to play for McVay and be in LA. Lions did him right in the end. There were other offers. Very good ones, too.

Detroit and Rams front offices both knew that this was the trade that made all parties happiest— teams, player, coach.

TurfShowTimes@TurfShowTimes
Rams, Matthew Stafford badly wanted each other, as Lions may have turned down better offers from other teams

Quick reaction to the big trade tonight pic.twitter.com/Z4gKamhBCa

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) January 31, 2021

Louis Riddick@LRiddickESPN
No shock whatsoever that Stafford will find a new team quickly. He is a damn good QB that can make unique level throws. With quality support/good system-relationship he will win big. Right away.

JosinaAnderson@JosinaAnderson
Text from league source on the #Lions trade talks for QB Matthew Stafford: “I’m sure they’ll get a trade, but right now they’re looking for a sucker to overpay.”