Wagoner: Examining the Rams and Marcus Mariota

Examining the Rams and Marcus Mariota

By Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/15468/examining-the-rams-and-marcus-mariota

EARTH CITY, Mo. — Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota surprised no one Wednesday when he officially declared himself eligible for the 2015 NFL draft.

What does that have to do with the Rams, exactly? The answer is probably not much. Yes, the Rams need a quarterback and Mariota is considered by many to be the top prospect in this year’s draft (or no worse than second best).

With the 10th overall pick in this year’s draft, the Rams aren’t exactly sitting in position to land Mariota. No, if the Rams truly loved Mariota — and they do like him, though the extent of that is unclear — they would have to make a bold move up in the draft to land him. Perhaps even the full nine spots to the No. 1 pick.

2015 NFL DRAFT

NFL DraftRound 1: April 30, time TBA
Rds. 2-3: May 1, TBA
Rds. 4-7: May 2, TBA
Where: Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University, Chicago
MORE KEY DATES

Declaration deadline: Jan. 15
2015 Senior Bowl: Jan. 24
2015 Scouting Combine: Feb. 17-23

The cost of such a move would probably be off the charts, considering how far they’d have to go, how few top quarterback prospects are in this class and how many teams are starving for help at the position. For the sake of the discussion, though, let’s look at Mariota and how he might fit in St. Louis.

Since the Rams have yet to hire an offensive coordinator, it’s hard to say how Mariota would fit in their offense. But most signs point to coach Jeff Fisher wanting to stick with an offensive approach similar to what he’s overseen for the past three years (and throughout his career). Fisher’s best teams, however, did have a quarterback (Steve McNair) capable of being a multi-purpose threat.

Clearly, Mariota isn’t the same player as McNair, but the point is Fisher has coached and had success with a quarterback who can make things happen with his legs as well as his arm. Still, if the Rams do have an interest in Mariota and are at least entertaining the thought of making a move to get him, it would behoove them to factor that heavily into any discussion of their next offensive coordinator.

As for Mariota himself, ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay ranks him as the top quarterback in the class and the No. 2 overall prospect. Mariota won the Heisman Trophy after leading the FBS in QBR (90.8) and finished his career as the most efficient player in FBS history in terms of offensive production. Mariota-led offenses averaged 8.67 yards per play, the most of any player ever to post 9,000 or more yards of total offense. For what it’s worth, Mariota put up 13,033 yards of total offense in his college career.

Despite all that production, history doesn’t favor Mariota and not just because of the system he comes from though that’s an important part of his evaluation as well. The previous four Oregon quarterbacks (George Shaw, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith and Chris Miller) selected in the first round have a combined record 64 games under .500.

Early entrant quarterbacks have also struggled in adjusting to the NFL. According to ESPN Stats & Information, of the 13 early-entrant quarterbacks to come into the league since 2006, only three have managed winning records as a starter. Also, of the five current Heisman winning quarterbacks currently in the league, none has a winning record as a starter and only Carolina’s Cam Newton has a playoff victory.

Of course, none of that guarantees anything in terms of what Mariota can do at the next level.

And of all teams, the Rams know better than any that an Oregon quarterback can be a great asset. The last one they drafted was a young man named Norm Van Brocklin in the fourth round of the 1949 NFL draft. Van Brocklin went on to six Pro Bowl appearances as a Ram and teamed with Bob Waterfield to lead the Rams to the 1951 NFL championship.

Fisher and general manager Les Snead have indicated they might be open to making a move up in this year’s class and it would stand to reason that if they did, a quarterback would be the prize. Whether they like Mariota or any other prospect enough to make such a move remains to be seen.

• This topic was modified 9 years, 10 months ago by zn.