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  • #150838
    Zooey
    Participant

    well that’s good to know. i like curl. i don’t think he’s talked about enough. or maybe the other teams know something the rams don’t. i choose to believe the rams outsmarted everyone else unless the actual games show differently. i like white. it’s a gamble, but a smart one i think. and williams should be fine.   i’d still feel better if the rams brought jj back. maybe with trading skow they can do something. but if not i think lake should be fine too.

    The Rams evidently think White’s floor is high enough that, combined with Williams and the rest of the squad, they did not take a single CB in 10 picks. That surprised me, but this group knows what it’s doing.

    It is evident that defensive strategy has changed for the secondary. Gone are the days of 2 CBs, a slot, a FS and a SS. They are mixing up what they are doing, and the offense can’t tell pre-snap necessarily what those guys are going to do. I don’t know, but I think I’m going to tune in and see what happens this year. There is an awful lot to like, in spite of AD’s retirement.

    #150837
    InvaderRam
    Moderator

    It’s the secondary that has to do most of the multiplicity/disguised coverage action.

     

    well that’s good to know. i like curl. i don’t think he’s talked about enough. or maybe the other teams know something the rams don’t. i choose to believe the rams outsmarted everyone else unless the actual games show differently. i like white. it’s a gamble, but a smart one i think. and williams should be fine.

     

    i’d still feel better if the rams brought jj back. maybe with trading skow they can do something. but if not i think lake should be fine too.

     

    and i expect jones to step up. obviously he’s a front seven guy. but he does a lot of things well, and he’s a leader.

    zn
    Moderator

    see link above

    BEST 2024 NFL FREE AGENTS

    1. Saquon Barkley (No. 30 in PFF’s Free Agency Rankings)
    2. Josh Jacobs (31)
    3. Derrick Henry (32)
    4. Tony Pollard (56)
    5. Austin Ekeler (57)
    6. D’Andre Swift (104)
    7. J.K. Dobbins (129)
    8. Devin Singletary (130)
    9. Gus Edwards (131)
    10. AJ Dillon (134)

    The 2024 NFL offseason is something of a referendum on the value of running backs in today’s game. The Giants didn’t place the franchise tag on Saquon Barkley, so he will hit the open market, along with potentially Josh Jacobs from the Raiders.

    That duo represents a pair of elite running backs in their prime. Neither player is older than 27, and each has demonstrated elite NFL play at various points in their career and is an every-down weapon.

    The problem is each has also shown seasons where none of it mattered because the situation around them was bad enough that they simply couldn’t move the needle. In the past, each would have broken the bank, but it will be interesting to see what their contracts end up being this year.

    Derrick Henry is a different case. Almost 30 years old, Henry is a walking red flag in terms of the perils of paying an NFL running back big money. He has more mileage on the clock than any other back in the league when you factor in his college and high school careers, and yet he has always been an exception in the NFL. Some team will likely pay him a solid contract for a couple of years and gamble that he will remain a unicorn to whom the “rules” simply don’t apply.

    Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler are both players coming off seasons that did not enhance their value, but can each be extremely an effective weapon and may represent an excellent buy-low opportunity.

    #149204
    Billy_T
    Participant

    Also: If the Rams want to take a gamble on greatness at tackle, there’s Kingsley Suamataia (BYU), who may be the most athletically gifted, freakish linemen his size in a generation. Right now, he’s probably a late 1st, early 2nd rounder, so McSnead might hear some screams from the fanbase if they stick and pick him at #19. Trade down, and it makes a ton of sense. He may need a redshirt year, but you just don’t find many human beings who can beat 21mph on the GPS tracker at 6’6″, 318. He did that last year, according to Bruce Feldman’s freak list . . . and is up to 325 now. Incredibly strong, agile, etc.

    if he is that i don’t think he’ll be available late first or second. but then. maybe someone will be willing to trade up to get him giving the rams the opportunity to pick up another draft pick. or they just pick him at 19.

    ____

    This is pre-Combine, of course, so it’s highly provisional. But here’s the average slotting for offensive tackles at the moment:

    https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024?pos=OT

    Joe Alt OT Notre Dame

    Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State

    Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

    JC Latham OT Alabama

    Amarius Mims OT Georgia

    Troy Fautanu OT Washington

    Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

    Jordan Morgan OT Arizona

    Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU

    ____

    Obviously, they’re not all gonna be chosen in the 1st round. Several will fall to the 2nd. Also, Latham is basically only a right tackle, unless he drops 30 pounds or so. He’s freakish, too, at 360. Suamataia and the rest should be able to play either tackle spot.

    #149242
    Billy_T
    Participant

    Riffing off of Jeremiah’s comment a bit:

    I definitely think the Rams should draft several O-line guys. One can debate when. But they should stock up. The depth is there, and it would also give them added flexibility to further strengthen the line in “outside the box” ways. For instance, some scouts think Avila would be better at center than guard, and a likely All Pro there. He’s very good at guard right now, and there’s the “aint broke” risk of moving him. But if the Rams draft, say, two guards with starter potential, they could move Avila to center, get much bigger and tougher up the middle, and protect Stafford more at the same time. Ideally, they’d grab a tackle or two as well. Perhaps slot two early picks for tackle and guard, and two later picks for the same combo. Or, just one scheme versatile player late, followed by seriously aggressive and swift UDFA signings. IMO, they let a lot of talent slip away after the draft last year.

    Right now, no center appears to warrant a pick before the 3rd round. But there are several guards who probably do, and even more tackles. This may be the deepest draft for good to elite tackles in years, and IMO, the Rams would be foolish to pass on all of them. Then again, they’d be foolish to pass on good to elite corners, and good to elite edges, and they just don’t have the picks to upgrade all of those spots.

    As much as I love the draft, and playing amateur GM, I have no doubt that it must be damn hard to actually run one in the real world. All of it is really a gamble, and no player is a sure thing. So ya gotta play the percentages, and remember Heisenberg’s Uncertainty principle, which has always applied to NFL team-building, whether people realize it or not.

    ;>)

     

    #149202
    InvaderRam
    Moderator

    Also: If the Rams want to take a gamble on greatness at tackle, there’s Kingsley Suamataia (BYU), who may be the most athletically gifted, freakish linemen his size in a generation. Right now, he’s probably a late 1st, early 2nd rounder, so McSnead might hear some screams from the fanbase if they stick and pick him at #19. Trade down, and it makes a ton of sense. He may need a redshirt year, but you just don’t find many human beings who can beat 21mph on the GPS tracker at 6’6″, 318. He did that last year, according to Bruce Feldman’s freak list . . . and is up to 325 now. Incredibly strong, agile, etc.

     

    if he is that i don’t think he’ll be available late first or second. but then. maybe someone will be willing to trade up to get him giving the rams the opportunity to pick up another draft pick. or they just pick him at 19.

    #149200
    Billy_T
    Participant

    Thanks for that though personally, I’m not up enough on this draft to be able to say much. I do have a question. I’ve heard that this is an unusually loaded draft. Have you hear that?

    Yes. So far, it appears to be very strong, with a lot of talent available mid to late when the Rams usually do their best work. But this is the year to have multiple early picks, too. Cuz there seems to be a fall off in elite talent quickly at edge and tackle, especially, which is actually kinda normal. A fall off for tight ends, too. Really just two special guys: Brock Bowers and Ja’Tavion Sanders.

    The Rams can find starters at corner and safety, most likely, through 4 rounds . . . Later may get dicey. Linebackers through five. I think some promising edges will still be there in the #160-170s, like Cedric Johnson and Brennan Jackson. And if the Rams want to get some Braveheart action, there’s the aptly named Braiden McGregor from Michigan.

    Of course, it’s still too early to know how teams will stack their boards. They change dramatically after the Combine and Pro Days — generally speaking, more outside the Top 50 than inside it, with a few exceptions. One of the players I’m seeing making a crazy jump up boards already is Darius Robinson, from Missouri, who’s gone from a likely 4th or 5th rounder to a possible 1st, with a lot of help from the Senior Bowl. He’d be excellent for the Rams cuz he can play all across the line, including edge. A legit 6’5″, nearly 290. Probably could lose or gain weight as needed.

    Also: If the Rams want to take a gamble on greatness at tackle, there’s Kingsley Suamataia (BYU), who may be the most athletically gifted, freakish linemen his size in a generation. Right now, he’s probably a late 1st, early 2nd rounder, so McSnead might hear some screams from the fanbase if they stick and pick him at #19. Trade down, and it makes a ton of sense. He may need a redshirt year, but you just don’t find many human beings who can beat 21mph on the GPS tracker at 6’6″, 318. He did that last year, according to Bruce Feldman’s freak list . . . and is up to 325 now. Incredibly strong, agile, etc.

    Anyway, yeah, this is looking like a very good draft, and it would have been even deeper if several top 100 prospects had entered the draft, as expected. The Portal and NIL money have changed things a good bit for college kids.

    #148990
    zn
    Moderator

    How Chiefs, 49ers, Lions and Ravens exorcised demons to reach conference title games

    By Ted Nguyen

    https://theathletic.com/5218460/2024/01/23/chiefs-49ers-lions-ravens-playoffs-film-breakdown/

    The 2023 NFL playoffs have been about exorcising demons that have plagued each team playing in the conference championship round. Heading into the postseason, the narrative was Lamar Jackson struggles against the blitz, Kyle Shanahan’s teams can’t come from behind to win a game in the fourth quarter, Andy Reid is unwilling to run the ball, Jared Goff can’t make big-time throws in the clutch.

    It took a half, but Jackson figured out the Texans defense and the Ravens put up 24 second-half points to seal the win.

    Shanahan can get notoriously conservative and he cost the 49ers points near the end of the first half, but he kept putting the ball in Brock Purdy’s hands and the quarterback found a way to complete the comeback on the final drive.

    Patrick Mahomes was magnificent against the Bills but it was the Chiefs’ heavy personnel groupings and run game that made the difference.

    Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers made the game interesting in the fourth quarter, but Goff answered every time he was called upon.

    Lamar figures out the Texans’ blitz

    One of the most infamous games of Jackson’s career was when he was blitzed into oblivion by then-Dolphins head coach Brian Flores on Thursday Night Football. It was shocking watching one of the most electric players in the league struggle so mightily. Jackson was sacked four times in that game and the Ravens only managed to score 10 points.

    “It was cover 0 a majority of the whole game,” Jackson said after the game. “They just got hot each and every time I’m dropping back … just couldn’t do anything about that.”

    What Jackson likely was saying he was “hot,” meaning the defense sent one or more rushers than the offense could block so he had to throw the ball hot. When he did throw hot, the Dolphins were right on top of his receivers and tackled them for short gains — he averaged only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Professing that he couldn’t do anything about it shows how desperate he was for answers.

    In his career, the blitz has reduced Jackson to a below-average quarterback. Among qualifying passers (played in at least 40 games), from 2018-2023, Jackson ranks 20th in EPA per dropback against the blitz. It’s a way for defenses to get the ball out of his hands and keep him in the pocket. Theoretically, there are fewer running lanes when there are more pass rushers.

    In the divisional round, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans took this approach to the next level. He blitzed Jackson at the highest rate he’s ever been blitzed in his career. According to Next Gen Stats, Jackson was blitzed on 75 percent of dropbacks. He struggled with it in the first half but he rose to the occasion in the second half. Jackson finished with 120 yards passing, two touchdowns and completed 13 of 18 passes against the blitz.

    Jackson held the ball for an average of 3.51 seconds against the blitz in the first half. He adjusted in the second half and got rid of the ball more than a second faster (2.25 seconds). Throwing the ball faster isn’t simply a decision to do so, you must have quick answers and know where to throw against the different types of blitzes. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken gave Jackson answers that he didn’t have against Miami in 2021.

    In that 2021 game, the offense was too static and Jackson kept throwing bubble screens and rub routes that didn’t have enough time to develop. Against the Texans, Monken effectively used motion to force the defense to adjust pre-snap and to create space for Jackson to quickly throw into.

    7:53 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-7

    On third-and-7, the Texans had two linebackers mugged up in the A-gaps. After Jackson motioned running back Justice Hill to the other side, he saw the nickel move inside, which was a tell that he was going to blitz. The offense had a snag concept called with Hill running to the flats. This meant that, despite the frequent blitzing, Monken trusted Jackson enough to call a five-man pass pro.

    The edge defender, Jonathan Greenard, to Jackson’s right dropped but the defense still rushed six, meaning they had one more than the offense could block. Jackson had to throw hot but he remained calm and let the route concept develop.

    Greenard ran with Hill, which left Zay Flowers wide open on the spot route.

    Though there is never a great answer against a quarterback of Jackson’s quality, but blitzing at a high rate was usually the best strategy against him. But based on his play lately, that may not be relevant anymore. It’s not simply a scheme that is helping Jackson. This season, he just has a better understanding of defenses and a noticeable calm about him no matter what the defense tries.

    49ers end fourth-quarter funk

    I knew the 49ers were going to struggle when I saw how hard the rain started to come down in Santa Clara. Brock Purdy has struggled to throw in the rain and against the Packers, he was off target on 25.6 percent of his passes, the worst rate of his career. The second-worst was when the 49ers played Cleveland in Week 6 in which he also struggled to control the ball in the rain.

    Everyone has seen the stat by now, before the divisional round, Shanahan was 0-30 when his teams trailed by five or more points when entering the fourth quarter. It’s hard to come back from those kinds of deficits in general, but it’s still jarring to see that one of the best offensive coaches of all time has never come back from a five-plus-point lead in the fourth quarter.

    How did he finally get over the hump? By continually trusting Purdy to throw the ball despite his struggles.

    The Packers defense took the correct approach and dared the 49ers to throw. The 49ers have dominated teams that play base defense (some combination of seven defensive linemen and linebackers with four defensive backs) through the air. In the regular season, they led the league in net yards per pass attempt (10.7) and overall yards per game (129.1) against base personnel. But with Purdy struggling, Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who seems to have a newfound respect for the run in recent weeks, was more concerned with stopping Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers struggled to run against the Packers’ base and instead of bashing their heads against the wall, Shanahan kept putting the ball in Purdy’s hands — the QB dropped back a season-high 41 times.

    It wasn’t always pretty. His inability to control the ball seemed to be getting into his head. He was missing reads and looked erratic throughout the game. After Packers kicker Anders Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal, the 49ers found themselves down by four points with the ball and 6:41 remaining in the game. On that drive, Purdy was 6 of 7 (George Kittle dropped a pass) for 47 yards and had a nine-yard scramble to set up McCaffrey for the game-winning touchdown run.

    3:07 remaining in the fourth quarter, first-and-10

    After crossing the midfield line, the 49ers had a mirrored concept with two deep out-breaking routes. Brandon Aiyuk was lined up to the left and backup receiver Chris Conley was lined up to the right. The Packers seemed to be daring the 49ers to throw outside all game. Their corners were cheating inside for most of the game. Why would they think Purdy could throw an out-breaking route with how much he was struggling throughout the game?

    As he got to the top of his drop, Purdy kept his front shoulder pointed to the middle of the field and didn’t telegraph the pass. Packers defensive back Jonathan Owens was the flat defender. He was responsible for getting underneath Conley but he seemed to be influenced by Purdy’s body position, as he angled his hips inside and never dropped with any width.

    Still, this was a difficult throw. Purdy had to layer the ball over Owens to Conley and he did it perfectly for a 17-yard gain. The clock wasn’t a problem at this point, so they didn’t necessarily have to throw the ball to the sideline but the opportunity was there because of how the Packers were playing the 49ers receivers. Shanahan trusted his young quarterback to make a hard throw and he executed.

    Purdy eventually found a way to control the ball and regain his poise when the game was on the line. Shanahan made a terrible game-management error before halftime, playing for a long field goal in the rain instead of trying to get into the red zone or set up for a closer field goal. But he deserves credit for letting Purdy figure things out. The 49ers never trailed by double-digits, so he didn’t have to keep letting Purdy drop back, but he did and Purdy rewarded his trust.

    Chiefs’ offensive evolution in the playoffs

    Reid has been criticized throughout his career for his clock management and his unwillingness to run the ball. He’s figured out clock management in the last few years but he’s still not a big fan of letting all-world quarterback Patrick Mahomes hand the ball off too many times. And why would he? Most times, taking the ball out of Mahomes’ hands is a win for the defense, but this has been a different kind of season. The Chiefs’ receivers have let them down frequently throughout the season and Kansas City has one of the league’s best defenses. Running the ball more and trusting the defense just makes sense.

    The Chiefs also have one of the NFL’s best interiors with Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. Also, the Bills were inordinately banged up at linebacker. According to Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs lined up in 13 personnel (one back, three tight ends, one receiver) on 23.4 percent of plays. On those plays, the Chiefs gained 95 rushing yards with a success rate of 63.6 percent. Against the Bills, they had their fifth-lowest Cook rate game of the season. The “Cook Index” is measured by “how frequently teams pass the ball on first and second downs in the first 28 minutes of regulation, before time remaining and score differential influence run-pass tendencies.”

    The Chiefs also created passing opportunities for Mahomes out of their multiple-tight end sets. In multiple-tight end personnel groupings, Mahomes was 8 of 12 for 112 yards (9.2 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. This multiple-tight ends, physical approach is the latest iteration of Reid’s offense with Mahomes. They’ve evolved from a spread-it-out, deep-passing team to a quick, short-passing attack to this version. This latest iteration may hurt Reid’s pass-happy core the most but it might win him another Super Bowl. He now just has to stop giving the ball to receivers behind the line of scrimmage.

    Goff’s fourth-quarter dimes

    Dan Campbell isn’t afraid of anything, especially criticism. He will call fake punts in his own territory, he’ll keep taking fourth-down chances, and he’s going to let his often-slandered quarterback throw the ball to ice games. Last week, up by one point, the Lions passed the ball twice in a four-minute drill to ensure they could end the game on kneel-downs with Goff throwing two 11-yard passes for first downs.

    Lions are winning playoff games and changing perceptions of what they can accomplish

    Against the Buccaneers, the Lions had a seven-point lead and faced third-and-15 with the ball on their 44-yard line. Most teams would call a draw or screen to set themselves up for a punt rather than risk a negative play. Only the teams with mutant quarterbacks like Mahomes or Josh Allen routinely try to throw the ball past the sticks in these situations. Goff doesn’t have the physical traits of those guys, but Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson trusted him like he’s of that ilk.

    9:32 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-15

    This image gives you an idea about the depth that the receivers have to get to on third-and-very-long. They have to run past the first-down marker, especially on a curl route like Amon-Ra St. Brown ran.

    Starting corner Jamel Dean was hurt so the Lions went after his replacement, Zyon McCollum. McCollum’s coverage wasn’t bad. He was breaking right as St. Brown was breaking.

    However, Goff led St. Brown back toward him, away from the coverage. The pass needed to be right on the money and it was. The offensive line also deserves a ton of credit for giving Goff a clean pocket on the shotgun equivalent of a seven-step drop.

    A few plays later, he threw another dime to St. Brown for the game-sealing touchdown.

    Belief and trust in Goff were scarce when he was traded to the Lions. He probably even doubted himself. But if it’s one superpower that Campbell has, it’s making people believe. And it’s not just through cheap words and rah-rah speeches. He makes you believe through his actions. He’s proven that he has absolute trust in Goff by putting the ball in his hands in critical situations — ones in which most coaches would get conservative — and Goff has delivered time after time. This season, Goff has blossomed under the pressure of Campbell’s “gambles” and now, Campbell has the entire city of Detroit believing in Goff and this team.

    #148862
    Zooey
    Participant

    If the Ravens win, I recoup all the money I lost on everything else. Well…almost.

    Don’t gamble, children. It’s bad.

    #148690
    Zooey
    Participant

    Only to find out he’s a degenerate gambler.

    Okay, degenerate maybe.

    But not a gambler.

    Kyren Williams is going to score a TD today.

    And just to make you guys super jealous…here’s the view outside my hotel window.

    #148681
    nittany ram
    Moderator

    Well, since I arrived in Las Vegas yesterday morning, I am going to have to put some money where my mouth is.

    Well whatta’ ya know…

    For decades zooey has been prancing about the board acting all sanctimonious – looking upon us with disdain whenever we penned a bawdy remark.  We would have to endure lengthy pearl-clutching tirades with every utterance that offended his piousness…

    Only to find out he’s a degenerate gambler.

     

     

    #147625
    Billy_T
    Participant

    The Rams made it a lot closer than it needed to be. Most everyone likely agrees about the play-calling in the Red Zone not being effective, the two out-of-character fumbles by Williams, and a dropped pass here and there as main culprits.

    Kendricks really needs to be upgraded this offseason. He’s a backup, really, and probably better suited to safety if he can bulk up. Just not fast enough to play corner, and I think he knows it. Which is why he gambles on getting flagged so often. I think the Rams also know this, which is why they’ve been trying so hard to claim Kyu Blu Kelly off waivers, but keep missing. He’s a better athlete than Kendricks, but has his own issues. The Rams brass must think they can coach him up, though.

    Stafford might be playing better now than he did when they won the Super Bowl. Also really like how they’ve incorporated Robinson into the mix. He’s a good receiver, and brings a good combo of size and speed. They now can claim three true starters at wideout again, and I hope they find a way to re-sign Robinson if he’s affordable. Age 30 season next year might help them do just that. The O-line is really playing well, too. If they can beat the Saints Thursday, they’re almost a lock for one of the Wild Cards.

    #146085

    In reply to: Jefferson traded

    Billy_T
    Participant

    Well the Rams would be better if they hit on all their 2s and 3s in 2019 and 2020 and had at least 2 or 3 of those 8 who were still with the team. 2019 2 Taylor Rapp 61 2019 3 Darrell Henderson 70 2019 3 David Long 79 2019 3 Bobby Evans 97 2020 2 Cam Akers 52 2020 2 Van Jefferson 57 2020 3 Terrell Lewis 84 2020 3 Terrell Burgess 104 Yet in their defense, if you look at those draft years, they were not great ones in those rounds.

     

    Agreed. Too many misses in both those draft classes. I didn’t like the Rapp pick when it happened. Thought he lacked athleticism. I did see him as a try-hard player with heart, and he played that way for the Rams. I also think the Rams chose the wrong guy, Akers over Henderson. From my (limited) vantage point, always thought Henderson was the better back, but he did have injury issues. Long was a disappointment. Solid athleticism, but just didn’t seem to fit. Evans was a reach. Lewis was a gamble, but had elite size and athleticism, with major injury history. He’s another player I think the Rams cut long before his time, and they didn’t have to cut him. His cap hit was low, still on a rookie contract, etc. Almost the same with Burgess, but with less athleticism. Didn’t understand that cut, either.

    Good point about relative options across the board.

    In general, though, I think teams need to hit on at least the first three rounds. If a team isn’t in the top tier, those first three rounds should yield starters — as rookies or soon thereafter. If they’re middle to bad teams, the first four rounds. Even the best tier teams should be able to find depth upgrades or key specialists.

    The Rams have played well enough this season to confuse the heck out of me. I really don’t know where to place them. I don’t see them as top tier, or the next up, but they’ve played much better than I had anticipated going into the year. If this continues, I think they’re in the middle. A good draft would then mean hitting on the first four.**

    **Caveat being later round hits can compensate for early misses, but not entirely. In my view, the best teams do both now and then, and they usually hit on early picks. Of course, no team ever consistently does that. I haven’t done the legwork, but I’d guess it’s never happened in the NFL, year over year, for any team. So, basically, I’m talking aspirationally, etc.

    #145464
    Zooey
    Participant
    Barstool Gambling@stoolgambling
    If you had 49ers -7.5 Rams chose to kick a field goal down 10 as time expires to cover the spread
    ,
    Allen Sales@AllenSales
    Point differentials matter. Especially in a Divisional Game. They use it for tie breakers at the end of the season for playoff seeding. Chargers missed the playoffs in 2021 because of this. You take the points here.

    Lemme say this about that.

    A couple radio talkers on my way to work this morning where scratching their heads, and calling the FG weird, etc., and of course, it screwed some gamblers. Okay. The thing is that if McVay had called some play that had actually resulted in a TD, nobody would be saying anything. You throw a Hail Mary, and score. It blows the spread, too, but nobody woulda thought it was “weird.”

    Why?

    A TD would have been equally futile. Nothing would have been gained, except stats. So why throw a Hail Mary in that situation? Why not just kneel?

    Because ending with a score is fighting to the last second, and that’s what you do.

    So the reason is exactly the same, only the FG is a much higher probability of scoring. It may make even MORE logical sense to go for a FG in that situation than to throw a Hail Mary as the clock runs out.

     

    #143561
    Billy_T
    Participant

    but no guarantee of the superbowl. i think i would go with the superbowl and stafford. i don’t know if stafford comes back this year. i don’t know how he stays upright… hopefully, he’s got another five years in him…

    Well, we’re talking about the thinking going into the trade, not after the fact. As in, there was no guarantee they’d win the Super Bowl with Stafford, and no reason to believe they couldn’t win it with Goff. Goff had a track record of making it to the Big Dance. Stafford didn’t.

    In short, it was a gamble either way.

     

    #143154
    nittany ram
    Moderator

    And letting Matt Gay sign elsewhere is going to save loose change. Are they out scouring bars for a replacement? What’s that about?

    Arguments can be made for letting guys like Ramsey go. I don’t necessarily agree with it but there is a valid case for it.

    But how do you not resign Matt Gay – one of the best kickers in the league that you could have relatively cheaply?  Are they still willing to gamble with the kicking game after the Sloman-Forbath nightmare of 2020?!

     

    #143018
    Billy_T
    Participant

    Quick follow-up.

    Going into his first season with the Rams, Stafford was no sure thing. He had made the playoffs just three times in twelve years, with no wins. Goff had a much better playoff record, and had already made it to the Super Bowl. He was also nearly seven years younger. Stafford was a gamble.

    Yes, he had proven himself tough as nails, gutsy as hell, and had a strong arm. But the Rams gave up Goff, two firsts, and a third for a player who had never gone past the first round of the playoffs, and was pushing 34.

    I don’t see that as maximizing the idea of “trading for proven veterans.” They already had one at that position.

    #141671
    wv
    Participant

    I got no real criticisms of McV or the coaches.

    Just looks like:

    1. massive injuries
    2. Key personnel losses: Von Miller, OBJ, Whitworth
    3. And a go-for-it-now(2021) gamble (which paid off last year.)

     

    I just dont have much of an ’emotional’ reaction to this year, because of the Ring they won last year.   That Ring just makes up for a LOT with me.   Probly be two more years before i start bitching.

     

    w

    v

    #141506

    In reply to: R.I.P. Mike Fanning

    joemad
    Participant

    Mike Fanning was a great Ram…. anchored a great defense.

    Thank you John Hadl.

    URL = The Worst Draft Trades in NFL History – The Grueling Truth

    4) Packers trade two first-rounders, two second-rounders and a third-rounder to Los Angeles for John Hadl:

    This trade was probably the biggest panic trade in NFL history. For the first six games of the 1974 season, Jerry Tagge was, without question, the worst starting quarterback in professional football. Green Bay’s 24-year-old passer — the 11th pick of the 1972 draft — had a 36.0 passer rating and had thrown one touchdown and 10 interceptions. Somehow the Packers were 3-3, leading some — including head coach and general manager Dan Devine — to believe that the only thing standing between the Pack and a playoff berth was an upgrade under center.

    Five picks for one tired passer.

    In 1973, Hadl had been a hero for Los Angeles. Chuck Knox’s club finished with an NFC-best 12-2 record that season and Hadl posted the best touchdown-to-interception ratio of his career (22-11). The Rams were knocked off by Dallas in the playoffs (Hadl completed 7-of-23 passes in a 27-16 loss) and early into the next season, Hadl fell out of favor in Los Angeles.

    Still, to team owner Carroll Rosenbloom, trading his popular passer was a risk, regardless of what the other side had offered. “I’ve been heartsick about the Hadl thing all week,” Rosenbloom said after the trade. “It’s a gamble for us. I guess the fans will fire me if I’m wrong.”

    Rumors swirled that the Packers had dealt for damaged goods. Some suggested the reason for Hadl’s woes was a bum throwing arm. “Chuck Knox knows my arm’s OK,” Hadl told reporters. “Ask him and he’ll tell you.” Packers fans had already seen the arm up close; Hadl completed just 6-of-16 passes and was benched in a Week Five loss to Green Bay in 1974. The idea the team would trade for him just 10 days later was puzzling.

    Rams general manager Don Klosterman used Green Bay’s first-round pick of 1975 (No. 9 overall) to select defensive lineman Mike Fanning, who gave the team eight solid seasons. Klosterman used the remaining picks from the trade to assemble the core of Los Angeles’ secondary for the next few seasons: Monte Jackson, Pat Thomas and Nolan Cromwell (via a trade using another of Green Bay’s picks). With the rest of its picks in those two drafts, Los Angeles shored up its offensive line by drafting OG Dennis Harrah and OTs Doug France and Jackie Slater. These players would be instrumental in the Rams continued playoff success and an eventual appearance in Super Bowl XIV.

    The Packers headed in the opposite direction. Hadl guided Green Bay to victory in three of his first four appearances, but the team lost its final three games in 1974 to finish 6-8. Hadl threw two interceptions in each of the final two losses — games decided by seven points or less. The next season, Hadl threw six touchdown passes and 21 interceptions. By 1976, he was no longer welcome in Green Bay. He finished his 16-year pro career as a backup with the Houston Oilers in ’76 and ’77 before retiring.

    A day after the Packers wrapped up their 1974 season, Devine announced to reporters he was going to replace Ara Parseghian as the next coach at Notre Dame. He got off easy. His replacement, Bart Starr, was not so fortunate. In nine seasons, he led Green Bay to just one winning record (8-7-1 in 1978) — this from the former field general who had lost only one playoff game in 10 starts.

    The deal not only handicapped Starr’s coaching career — it injured Hadl’s legacy. The six-time Pro Bowler is often remembered more for the trade that brought him to Green Bay than for helping Sid Gillman to revolutionize the passing game during their nine seasons together in San Diego

    #138713
    InvaderRam
    Moderator

    i think secondary is set. especially with the trade for hill. so at this point i seriously doubt they go after mathieu.

     

    but edge rusher seems to be the one big question mark on this defense. i do like the hardy pick, but yeah. it’s a big gamble this late in the draft. so i’m guessing they look to free agency for some more help.

     

    so i’m guessing clowney is in play? the chance to play alongside donald and parlay that into a bigger contract? i don’t know how they afford him, but that could be a good fit.

    #138696
    zn
    Moderator

    My take.

    The Rams have seriously done well in the lower rounds since 2017. They average about 4 hits per draft (not yet counting the too recent 2021 draft);  and by hits I mean more than “makes the roster for a couple of years.” A hit is someone who either ends up as a starter, or when asked to step up as an injury replacement, comes through at a high level (eg. Scott).

    They have done things like find a seriously good NT in round 6 one year (Sebastian-Day) and then when he was injured, his 4th round replacement came through (Gaines). You know before that I don’t think they ever drafted a good NT when they played 3/4 defenses.

    Overall, this may be the best drafting in Rams draft history. Honestly.

    Given all that I am reluctant to say anything about picks that are obscure to me. I mean–who here predicted that both Fuller and Scott would come through the way they did? They were afterthoughts when Rams fans discussed those drafts. So I can’t rule them out from having 4 solid hits in this draft, too. (Plus it is obvious they also stocked themselves with very good position coaches, so player development is real with them.)

    Pick by pick.

    Bruss. The highest the Rams have deliberately picked a guard since Incognito in 2005 (others like Saffold and Evans were initially taken as tackles and then later converted. Bruss is a draft, plug and play guard). Bruss makes this OL Wisconsin West. This is obviously a good pick.

    Durant. He gets a lot of buzz as a good, talented, dedicated slot type corner. Rams have an extrordinary record drafting DBs, and that’s even with the disappointments we can all name. If Durant comes through, and Long and Rochell develop, and Hill is what he was, this is going to be a deep corner group. That’s a lot of ifs but it’s just not that implausible.

    Williams. I like him. Low center of gravity, good elusiveness, and top contact balance–the trait he shares with both Henderson and Akers. He’s basically Henderson with alterations–not as fast but far more elusive. Write-ups on him say he is a very good pass protector too. He replaces Michel. Rams need 3 backs.

    Lake. Nothing but love for this pick. He came through on a defense that was a poorly coached shambles.

    Kendrick. A gamble, but not a costly one.

    Hardy. Same as Kendrick. Except–it’s easier to find DBs this low in the draft then pass rushers. Every year the Rams will try a new potential diamond in the rough at this spot: Garrett, Lewis, Okoronkwo. But if you look at the entire league for the past 20 years, out of all the players taken after round 3 at DE or OLB edge rusher, only a handful have ever made it–a lowly percentage of just around 2%. If they don’t make another high profile trade, then, they just have to keep trying.

    Yeast. Don’t know. Special teamer? Maybe he blossoms? Let’s see if he makes some bread (yuck yuck).

    Arcuri. Strictly a right tackle and one very much in the Havenstein mold. This guy might make it and develop. (You know the Rams drafting at OL from Martz through Fisher was just bloody awful. This bunch, the 2017 and after gang, have been pretty good at it.)

    What I miss: What did I want to see them do that they didn’t do? Believe it or not–a back-up qb. Unless Perkins develops, I don’t think they have one.

     

    #137767

    In reply to: robert woods traded

    zn
    Moderator

    Rodrigue: Unpacking the Rams’ trade of Robert Woods to the Titans, an emotionally loaded move driven by finances

    EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - OCTOBER 17: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Robert Woods #2 of the Los Angeles Rams in action against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on October 17, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Los Angeles Rams defeated the New York Giants 38-11. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

    The Rams traded receiver Robert Woods to the Titans on Saturday afternoon in exchange for a 2023 sixth-round pick, multiple sources told The Athletic. While the reason for the trade was simple — largely financial, I was told — the ripple effects from it won’t be.

    There’s a lot to unpack in a transaction as emotionally loaded as this one is. Woods is a perennial team captain and has been a core leader in the locker room since the Rams signed him in 2017. He helped build the culture that ultimately became so crucial to the Rams’ Super Bowl win. He’s also a Los Angeles native and former USC Trojan who heartbreakingly could not participate on the field through the backstretch of last season’s championship run because he tore his ACL during practice in November (he’s expected to return to full form before training camp).

    This trade requires us to hold many things in our minds at once as truths, even as fans and teammates are reeling from it:

    • The Rams were not going to pay three receivers $12 million-plus annually. Their acquisition of high-profile receiver Allen Robinson on Thursday was the first in a series of moves that foreshadowed major changes coming to a talent-crowded receivers room. Robinson’s own contract averages about $15 million per year, and I expect the Rams to also restructure triple crown receiver Cooper Kupp’s deal in the coming months to reflect the higher pay of a player of his caliber.

    They also want to re-sign Odell Beckham Jr., but it’s important to note that trading Woods wasn’t an either/or situation as far as Beckham is concerned. Beckham’s offer from the Rams isn’t likely to be a high one in its first year at least (or front-loaded if it’s a multiyear deal), because he will play only half a season at best when he returns from his own ACL injury suffered in the Super Bowl.

    The Rams will incur a dead-money hit of $8.6 million because they didn’t wait until after June 1 to trade Woods. But, a source directly familiar with the transaction said, the team will save about $10 million between cash, bonus and cap considerations previously owed to Woods in 2022.

    They are currently trying to restructure star defensive tackle Aaron Donald’s contract, and it’s likely to be very expensive. They’re also trying to remain aggressive in free agency through the spring and summer to add at important positions (they need another pass rusher and a cornerback, though one of the two can’t affect their compensatory-pick formula).

    • Why did the Rams acquire Robinson in the first place if they knew it would mean parting with Woods? Free agency isn’t always linear. Multiple action plans are required, and the Rams pivoted when they didn’t retain outside linebacker Von Miller. They believed as late as Wednesday morning that they would get him back, before the Bills’ quiet push and higher offer (six years, $120 million with $45 million guaranteed) persuaded him away.

    As they waited for Miller to explore free agency fully for the first time and make his decision, the other top available pass rushers were signed by other teams. A source said the Rams even internally discussed trade possibilities with Minnesota, who midweek was still figuring out what to do with pass-rusher Danielle Hunter.

    When it became clear their top pass-rush options were not viable, they signed Robinson, who was arguably the best free agent still available (and a top-10 player in this free-agent class overall) and fits what specifically Matthew Stafford and McVay want to do with their passing game. Moving Woods then seemed like an inevitability because of Robinson’s salary and Woods’ own.

    That’s not to say that the Rams wouldn’t have tried to trade Woods if Miller had stayed, considering his contract. They still could have done so after June 1, and incurred far less dead money in 2022. But, if Miller had stayed, they probably wouldn’t have also been able to afford Robinson. If they couldn’t afford Robinson, they wouldn’t have had an overcrowded and financially disproportionate receivers room (again, Beckham Jr.’s expected offer does not factor into this). Football’s calculus can be cruel.

    It was not ideal for the Rams to miss out on pass rushers in free agency’s initial wave (although there were mixed feelings internally about the size of the offer to Miller) On the other hand, a team can’t sit on its heels if its first plan goes awry and another elite player is available. The savings from not retaining Miller, extending Stafford and creating more cap space in 2022, and the extra savings from trading Woods will fold into more moves beyond the acquisition of Robinson.

    • Why couldn’t the Rams get more in return? A source said the team got a few calls and offers on Woods over the last two days, especially after they added Robinson. But they also wanted to find a good spot for Woods, and the Titans’ offense certainly is that — his blocking will unlock even more in their already-dangerous run game, and he thrives in play-action-heavy offenses. The Titans still use a ton of play-action, while the Rams dramatically moved away from their usage of it after trading for Stafford.

    Between offloading Woods’ salary and the fit, the Rams seemed prepared for the inevitable (and fair) criticism of receiving only a 2023 sixth-rounder for a player of Woods’ caliber.

    • To me, this move signals even more of schematic shift in 2022. We saw pieces of this last season, including the movement away from sweeps and play-action passes and the increased usage of pure dropback concepts and empty sets. Adding Stafford, then figuring out what he was truly capable of as a passer, then understanding how defenses were rapidly changing to contain the offense McVay ran from 2017 to 2020 forced the coach to adapt. Schematic changes often mean personnel changes.

    The move also signals a dramatic changing-of-the-guard in locker-room leadership, too — or at least, it will have to if the Rams want to keep their team culture cohesive. Stalwart left tackle Andrew Whitworth retired, and veteran punter Johnny Hekker was released. Like those players, Woods’ contributions to the Rams’ ethos were invaluable.

    His departure will require younger or newer players to emerge as stability points. The Rams have gambled in many phases of their team-build, and it has worked out for them. But the emotional implications of this move might be among their riskiest bets yet.

    Yes, there’s a lot to unpack from a move such as this.

    In physics, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Each reaction is in itself a new action, and the cycle continues. Time will tell what this move’s ultimate result is. We currently see only about half of the picture.

    The difficult part is that, in losing a player as meaningful as Woods has been to this franchise, to his teammates, coaches, fans and to media, we feel all of it

    #136780
    zn
    Moderator

    Like everyone else I am assuming AW retires, which means they have to sign Noteboom. LOT is just not a position you gamble with. In terms of the contract, he won’t come cheap. It is true that he does not have a lot of starting experience, but still, just given contract dynamics at the position, he will get something near the going rate for FA 2nd contracts at LOT. Finding a good LOT is like finding a qb–there just aren’t enough bodies to go around–so most likely they will have to pay (maybe as high as 20 M). They will be doing that at the same time they will be extending Stafford.

    That’s why I tend to doubt they will have much money to work with.

    joemad
    Participant

    https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/the-rams-arent-getting-the-matthew-stafford-they-need-to-win-the-super-bowl-224623024.html

    Stafford not playing at Super Bowl level

    The Rams aren’t getting the Matthew Stafford they need to win the Super Bowl

    To this point, the NFL has shown it isn’t like the NBA, where a super team can join forces and produce championships. Much of that, of course, is simple numbers: There are only five players per team at a time on a basketball court and they play offense and defense.

    This year’s Los Angeles Rams are trying to show it can be done in the NFL, adding Matthew Stafford, Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. to a roster that already included Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and MVP candidate Cooper Kupp. The Rams are all in, having used nearly all of their 2022 draft picks in trades to assemble their roster; Los Angeles hasn’t made a pick in the first round since 2016 and, at the moment, won’t until 2024.

    When the Rams traded for Stafford earlier this year, the general reaction was an overreaction. Stafford’s career mediocrity was attributed solely to his being a Detroit Lion for 11 years. Being paired with Sean McVay was supposed to be the magic elixir that showed everyone Stafford was a hidden All-Pro all this time, despite being a Pro Bowler just once with Detroit and sharing the field with Hall of Fame receiver Calvin Johnson for his first seven seasons in the league.

    Three games in, with the Rams undefeated and coming off a win against the Buccaneers, Stafford was being discussed as an MVP candidate.

    Since then, he’s largely been the quarterback he was in Detroit: statistically stellar against bad teams, meh against winning ones. The Rams’ road win over the Arizona Cardinals earlier this month was the first time in his career that Stafford had posted a win over a team that was five games over .500 at kickoff, and just his 11th against a team with a winning record. He’s 0-3 in the postseason.

    On Sunday, against a Minnesota Vikings team that was 7-7 when the day began, Stafford had to make Rams fans very nervous. He was 21 for 37 (56.8 percent) for 197 yards with one touchdown, a season-high three interceptions and season-low 5.3 yards per attempt.

    He threw picks on back-to-back possessions in the third quarter and was 4-for-9 passing in the red zone, with the Rams scoring only two touchdowns on five trips inside the 20. And that was while Sony Michel rushed for 131 yards, providing the run support we’ve been told ad nauseam Stafford never had with the Lions.

    Los Angeles won — in spite of Stafford, not because of him.

    That’s a risky proposition in the playoffs.

    Yes, yes, Los Angeles is 11-4 and clinched a playoff berth with the win over the Vikings, and it must be noted Stafford lost No. 2 receiver Robert Woods to a season-ending injury. But look at how Stafford has played since completing 70.2 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns, one pick and 10.0 YPA during that 3-0 start, especially since November began. The Rams were winless in three games that month against the Titans, 49ers and Packers, losing by a combined 41 points with Stafford going 78 for 127 (6.6 YPA) with five TDs and five INTs.

    And analytically speaking, specifically expected points added (EPA) per play vs. pass blocking grade, Stafford is giving Los Angeles almost exactly the same production it got from Jared Goff in 2018. That’s the year the Rams reached the Super Bowl. Something tells us McVay and general manager Les Snead were hoping for a little more when they gave up two first-round picks to get Stafford ain exchange for Goff. They were expecting elite.

    Los Angeles travels to Baltimore this week and finishes at home with San Francisco, both of whom are 8-7 and in the playoff field as of Monday. The Cardinals, at 10-5 and still in the running for the NFC West title, close at Dallas and home with Seattle.

    There aren’t many quarterbacks playing who you’re confident can consistently put their team on their back and carry it to a win. Tom Brady, of course; Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes. Not long ago Russell Wilson belonged in that category, too. Does Stafford?

    Great quarterbacks make everyone around them better and lift their games when the stakes are highest. To use McVay’s own words, when a game or a play is “not right, they can make it right.” That’s a big reason the Rams acquired Stafford.

    They need him to become that quarterback quickly, or their big gamble for this season will be a big bust.

    #133664
    Zooey
    Participant

    Nahh. There’s no splitting hairs here on the subjectivity of Truth.

    He was asked if he was vaccinated, and he knew perfectly well what that question meant. He answered, “Yes, I’m immunized,” and he knew perfectly well how that answer would be interpreted. It was a deliberate lie for the public.

    But I don’t care.

    The NFL office, and the GB Packers knew that was untrue also, and they let it go, so they are accomplices. And I still don’t care.

    This matters to me ONLY if Rogers lied to his teammates and people he encounters, and jeopardized their health.

    As far as I’m concerned, Rogers took a gamble, and lost. That’s its own karma.

    I already knew he is a dick. I mean…his own mother and brother hate him. This doesn’t change anything in my estimation of the man on a personal level. I already had a low opinion of him, and this is par for the course, more or less.

    But those clips (and I didn’t watch them all the way through) look to me like people who just don’t like Rogers personally, and are piling on.

    I’ll bet if they liked Rogers personally, their opinions about this would be shaped differently.

    #131946
    zn
    Moderator

    Matthew Stafford: Big arm meets big opportunity

    Jay Busbee

    https://sports.yahoo.com/matthew-stafford-big-arm-meets-big-opportunity-160805817.html

    There aren’t a whole lot of Matthew Stafford highlights.

    For a guy who’s been around the NFL for more than a decade, once briefly ranked as its highest-paid player in history, and already stands inside the all-time top 20 in most major passing categories, that’s a little odd, right?

    Sure, there’s the wild-card playoff game back in 2012 when he threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns, which is a nice little stat line but not nearly enough to compensate when your own defense gives up 45 points.

    There’s the game in 2009, Stafford’s rookie season with the Lions, when he threw for 422 yards and five touchdowns, heaving the final game-winner with a separated shoulder, to defeat Cleveland. To be fair, that’s a pretty great highlight, and it might be remembered even more fondly had it not been only one of two games Detroit won that year.

    There’s … hang on, there have to be some more here. How about the 2015 Pro Bowl, where he won MVP? That do anything for you? No? Maybe the fact that Stafford’s in your home every Thanksgiving, throwing passes high enough to knock satellites out of orbit while helping football fans avoid setting the table?

    [It’s winning season: Create or join a Yahoo Fantasy Football league today]

    We’re reaching now, and that’s the whole point. For such a statistically accomplished resume — he ranks 16th in both career passes and touchdowns, for instance — Stafford has been a phantom on the national stage. Every active player with numbers in his range — Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, even Joe Flacco — has rings or, at the very least, Super Bowl appearances and multiple playoff wins. Stafford’s postseason record: three appearances, three losses.

    Stafford’s a walking example of the absurdity of relying on wins as any kind of definitive quarterback metric. During his tenure in Detroit, the Lions churned through three head coaches and four offensive coordinators. The team’s foundation is so dysfunctional that Calvin Johnson — an all-time wide receiver GOAT who should’ve teamed with Stafford for a decade of highlights — retired rather than suffer in Detroit any longer. Even when they won, the Lions lost; Detroit fell in its three Stafford-era playoff games by an average of nearly two touchdowns.

    He led the league in game-winning drives in 2014, 2016 and 2017, and fourth-quarter comebacks in 2014 and 2016. His eight 2016 come-from-behind wins were the most in any season in the NFL since 1960, an impressive stat even without considering the fact that you’ve got to be losing to mount a fourth-quarter comeback at all. (Detroit went 9-7 that season. Draw your own conclusions from there.)
    No matter what he did in Detroit, Matthew Stafford always heard footsteps. (Amy Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
    No matter what he did in Detroit, Matthew Stafford always heard footsteps. (Amy Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

    So yes, Matthew Stafford had plenty of valid excuses for why his accolades and highlights don’t match his paycheck. Those days are over. His move to the Los Angeles Rams is the equivalent of getting off a rusting tractor and sliding behind the wheel of a Formula One ground rocket. He’s got everything he needs around him — offensive weapons, innovative schemers on the sideline, a defense that won’t wilt in a gentle breeze. The highway stretches wide in front of Stafford now, and all he has to do is step on the gas.

    The Rams are betting big on the idea that Stafford is a generational talent whose wings were bound in the Motor City, and the fact that Detroit went 16 games under .500 in the 165 games he started there is because they’re, well … the Lions. It’s a serious gamble, and at the moment, the oddsmakers are in on the gambit; at +1200, the Rams are the second-best bet in the NFC, and the fourth-best overall, to win the Super Bowl, per BetMGM.

    For those odds, Los Angeles dealt away two first-round draft picks, a 2021 third-rounder, and Jared Goff, the quarterback who had gotten them to the Super Bowl just two years before. That’s a heavy price for a 33-year-old quarterback with a career 89.9 quarterback rating, right between Chad Pennington and Teddy Bridgewater … and below Goff.

    Rams head coach Sean McVay, who rode hard for Stafford prior to the trade, knows his rep, if not yet his legacy, is on the line here. Not surprisingly, McVay is hyping Stafford like he’s a new album set to drop on Sept. 12.

    “This dude’s a bad MF-er,” McVay told Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer back in June. “Whatever people say about him, as good as it can be, he’s even better than advertised. It makes sense to him. The guy’s ability to see the game, his ability to draw on his experiences, the feel that he has, it’s pretty special and unique. And man, his feel for people, his authentic way of connecting with his teammates, his coaches, this guy, it’s great being around him.” Makes you wonder why Stafford wasn’t running wind sprints across Lake Michigan while he was in Detroit, doesn’t it?

    Stafford’s winning over his teammates, too. “He’s playing lights out,” Aaron Donald said in July. “I’m excited that he’s on our side, helping us to win. Just watching him and the way he works, the balls he’s been throwing, getting them to the wide receivers? You know, I ain’t never seen nothing like it. So to be able to see it first hand is just pretty cool.”

    Cooper Kupp, one of Stafford’s key targets, has noticed something more subtle: the way Stafford can control entire defenses with just his eyes.

    One subtle thing Cooper Kupp has noticed about Matthew Stafford in competitive camp reps is how Stafford moves defenses w/ his eyes. Pointed to a no-look pass across the middle to Robert Woods in which Stafford held the safety w/ his eyes.

    “It was just disgusting,” Kupp said.

    — Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) July 30, 2021

    Never the most quotable of quarterbacks, Stafford is saying the right things, if not quite stoking expectations to bonfire levels. “Across the league when guys change spots,” he said at a recent podium appearance, “there’s some really highs, there’s some lows, there’s some things we’re going to have to just battle through and keep working.”

    For now, these tidbits are all anyone outside Rams camp has to go on. Stafford didn’t play in any of the Rams’ three preseason games, which means he’ll be leaping untested into a season that starts hot. After the opener against Chicago, the Rams face four straight potential playoff teams — Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Seattle — before a three-game breather of the Giants, a Detroit reunion and Houston. The Rams have the 12th-toughest schedule in the NFL, most difficult of any NFC West team, with Tennessee, Green Bay and Baltimore lurking in the second half.

    There’s a whole lot of ground to cover in the next 17 games. But if Stafford can deliver on the expectations the Rams have — and if he can prove he’s out from under Detroit’s shadow — he’ll have a whole lot more highlights on his resume come 2022.

    InvaderRam
    Moderator

    Some would argue that the difference in that mentality is not necessarily that Stafford is right and Goff is wrong. Should all great quarterbacks take that deep ball “99 out of 100 times”? Why 99 and not 100? What happened during that one play where Stafford chose to not throw it deep? If he would do that one time out of 100, could he maybe do it 10 times out of 100? 15? How many of those 100 get intercepted? How many of Goff’s short chucks get the job done plenty well enough?

    yeah.

    we’ll see. we could just as easily be frustrated by stafford taking too many gambles when a safer check down would have gotten the first down.

    #130930
    zn
    Moderator

    What is your expectation for Austin Corbett in his new role at center?

    jrodrigue602 Jourdan Rodrigue
    I’m approaching this move with a blank slate, because while I think Austin is a super talented lineman in general, I remain concerned about the Rams creating two questions via one position change. I think I was surprised that Blythe ultimately chose to go elsewhere – but my sense is that there was going to be a position battle at center with McVay wanting to shift philosophy/style of player a little bit there. Depth is a big question.

    How has the linebacker group started to shape out

    jrodrigue602 Jourdan Rodrigue
    One cool thing about Ernest was that the Rams used their own data on him vs. some of the pre-draft testing measurables…and he kept getting comped to Jordan Fuller, in terms of being a steal/the public data not quite illustrating who the player is. I didn’t see a ton of him in the spring (he’s yet to sign his deal but it’s happening soon and nothing to be concerned about, just procedural) but in camp I’ll really get a better idea of how competitive he’ll be. One thing about the ILBs group – looks like they may continue to roll them in complementary pairs, with one player being bigger/more physical and the other being lighter/quicker.

    What would you say are the biggest differences between the Rams and Panthers as organizations?

    jrodrigue602Jourdan Rodrigue
    Hmm that’s super tough, because each org is so different across the league…probably a whole dissertation to be had there…but one big difference is that the Panthers built to this amazing run in 2015, but then between injuries and attrition, couldn’t quite replicate it after that and by the time I left, between a new owner, new GM, new team president, new coach and new QB, were trying to figure out how to build a new foundation. The Rams went through that/something similar a couple of years ago and saw success VERY quickly in part because they found their coach and re-set the team-build model between coach and GM – and now have a foundation, but trying to figure out how to again take that next half-step forward…that half-step between goodness and greatness being one of the hardest things to accomplish in this league. They’ve almost got the boulder back up to the top of the hill, and are trying like hell to figure out how to keep it from rolling back down again – because this league is built to push it back down.

    How do you see the Rams addressing the LT position when Whitworth retires? Do you think Joe Noteboom is the longterm option at LT?

    jrodrigue602 Jourdan Rodrigue
    I don’t think we have a large enough sample size to determine that, but I do know that Joe is certainly putting in the work to try to get there. It’s also better for the Rams if he is the option, because they won’t have a first-rounder to draft their next franchise

    I’m of the opinion that if the Rams are worse this year then McVay has to be on the hot seat in 2022.

    jrodrigue602Jourdan Rodrigue
    I get asked this a lot – it’s a good question. And I know the TV guys are all talking about it here and there. But if I’m being honest and going with my gut, I don’t think McVay will be on the hot seat if this gamble fails. This entire new era of the org has been built with McVay at the helm, from the team-building model to so many of the decisions being made to some of the internal overhaul most people will never hear about. I don’t think you just get rid of a guy because he fails for the first time (not counting the SB, because getting there that quickly shouldn’t be considered “failing”). I’m not speaking like, to be on his “side” – it’s just my feel for how they do things. Demoff talks a lot about how one of their best weapons is continuity – having it builds a body of data to test all new decisions against, and helps make all phases more efficient/increases success rate when such tests can be conducted. If they aren’t allowed to fail here and there, they don’t have that continuity.

    #130874
    Zooey
    Participant

    https://outsidevoices.substack.com/p/author-of-the-mega-viral-thread-on

    Author of the Mega-Viral Thread on MAGA Voters, Darryl Cooper, Explains His Thinking
    Tucker Carlson devoted seven minutes of airtime to reading it. Donald Trump heaped praise on it. Why did this Twitter analysis resonate so widely on the right?

    Darryl Cooper

    NOTE FROM GLENN GREENWALD: On Friday, a relatively obscure Twitter user with fewer than 7,000 followers — posting under the pseudonym MartyrMade — posted one of the most mega-viral threads of the year. Over the course of thirty-five tweets, the writer, a podcast host whose real name is Darryl Cooper, set out to explain the mindset that has led so many Trump supporters to believe that the 2020 election was fraudulent and, more generally, to lose faith and trust in most U.S. institutions of authority.

    Numerous journalists, including me, promoted the thread as one of the most insightful analyses yet published explaining the animating convictions underlying the MAGA movement. That night, Fox News host Tucker Carlson devoted a seven-minute segment to doing nothing more than reading Cooper’s thread. At the CPAC conference on Sunday, former President Donald Trump explicitly recommended the thread using Cooper’s name. In the last four days, Cooper’s Twitter account has gained more than 70,000 followers. Clearly, this thread resonated strongly with that political faction as a true and important explanation of how many MAGA voters have come to understand the world.

    For our Outside Voices freelance section, we asked Cooper to elaborate on his influential thread, with a focus on what led him to these observations about prevailing MAGA sentiments and why he believes they are important for people to understand. As Cooper notes, he does not share all of the perceptions and beliefs he is conveying, although he shares many of them. Instead, based on the recognition that most media outlets are incapable of understanding let alone accurately describing the views of a group of people they view with little more than unmitigated contempt, condescension and scorn, he believes it is imperative that people understand the actual reality of what is motivating so many Trump voters in their views, perceptions and beliefs — regardless of whether each particular belief is accurate or not.

    We also believe this understanding is vital, which is why we are happy to publish Cooper’s essay. It should go without saying that, as it true of all of our articles published on Outside Voices — which we treat as an op-ed page — our publishing of this article does not signify agreement with all of its claims, but only our belief that it is a viewpoint worth airing.

    Former U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held in the Hyatt Regency on February 28, 2021 in Orlando, Florida (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images).
    By Darryl Cooper

    I quit Twitter last August. Quit for good. Other than posting links to two new episodes of my podcast, I stayed away for eight months and didn’t regret a thing. Around mid-June I let myself be persuaded that social media engagement was part of having a podcast, so I dipped back in, promising myself I’d avoid being pulled into politics. Things haven’t gone as planned.

    The temptation was disguised cleverly as a conversation with a friend’s mother. She was visiting from upstate New York and we got to talking while my buddy was in the house tending to my goddaughter. She’s a hardcore Trumper from a less cynical generation that believes what she hears from sources she trusts. She’d been hounding her son about the stolen election all week, and he’d been trying to disabuse her of various theories involving trucked-in ballots and hacked counting machines. Now she had me cornered and put the question to me: “Do YOU think the election was legit?” So I told her the truth: I don’t know.

    By the time my friend had put the baby to bed and rejoined us, we were waist-deep in a discussion about what happened last year, and she was satisfied that I was on her side. “See?!? He (she meant me) knows what’s going on! I’m not crazy. He’s smart, and HE knows!” My friend pulled the Captain Picard facepalm, and said, “Darryl, what the f*ck are you telling her?”

    What I told her was some version of the Twitter thread Tucker Carlson read on air Friday night and which President Trump, using my name, then explicitly promoted in his speech to CPAC on Sunday, which has blown my inbox, and my promise to stay away from politics, to smithereens.

    I told her I didn’t know much about the ballots, or the voting machines, or some company that she’d heard had ties to Venezuela. I didn’t follow Sidney Powell, or Lin Wood, or the details of the cases proceeding through the system. I think it was around the time Rudy Giuliani chose a landscape and gardening emporium as the location for a press conference on what would have been the greatest political scandal in American history that I made the conscious decision to stop paying attention. Or maybe it was the dripping hair dye, or something about a kraken — it’s all sort of blended together these days.

    But I felt for her. She wasn’t the first person with whom I’d had the discussion, and I felt for all of them. I’ve had the discussion often enough that I feel comfortable extracting a general theory about where these people are coming from.

    RUSSIAGATE: THE ORIGINAL SIN
    Like my friend’s mother, most of them believe some or all of the theories involving fraudulent ballots, voting machines, and the rest. Scratch the surface and you’ll find that they’re not particularly attached to any one of them. The specific theories were almost a kind of synecdoche, a concrete symbol representing a deeply felt, but difficult to describe, sense that whatever happened in 2020, it was not a meaningfully democratic presidential election. The counting delays, the last-minute changes to election procedures, the unprecedented coordinated censorship campaign by Big Tech in defense of Biden were all understood as the culmination of the pan-institutional anti-Trump campaign they’d watched unfold for over four years.

    Many of them deny it now, but a lot of 2016 Trump voters were worried during the early stages of the Russia collusion investigation. True, the evidence seemed thin, and the very idea that the US and allied security apparatus would allow Trump to take office if they really thought he might be under Russian blackmail seemed a bit preposterous on its face. But to many conservatives in 2016 and early 2017, it seemed equally preposterous that the institutions they trusted, and even the ones they didn’t, would go all-in on a story if there wasn’t at least something to it. Imagine the consequences for these institutions if it turned out there was nothing to it.

    We now know that the FBI and other intelligence agencies conducted covert surveillance against members of the Trump campaign based on evidence manufactured by political operatives working for the Clinton campaign, both before and after the election. We know that those involved with the investigation knew the accusations of collusion were part of a campaign “approved by Hillary Clinton… to vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security service.” They might have expected such behavior from the Clintons — politics is a violent game and Hillary’s got a lot of scalps on her wall. But many of the people watching this happen were Tea Party types, in spirit if not in actual fact. They give their kids a pocket Constitution for their birthday. They have Yellow Ribbon bumper stickers, and fly the POW/MIA flag under the front-porch Stars and Stripes, and curl their lip at people who talk during the National Anthem at ballgames. They’re the people who believed their institutions when they were told Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. To them, the intel community using fake evidence (including falsified documents) to spy on a presidential campaign is a big deal.

    It may surprise many liberals, but most conservative normies actually know the Russia collusion case front and back. A whole ecosystem sprouted up to pore over every new development, and conservatives followed the details as avidly as any follower of liberal conspiracy theorists Seth Abramson or Marcy Wheeler. When the world learned of the infamous meeting between Trump campaign officials and Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, it seemed like a problem and many Trump supporters took it seriously. Deep down, even those who rejected the possibility of open collusion worried that one of Trump’s inexperienced family members, or else a sketchy operative glomming onto the campaign, might have done something that, whatever its real gravity, could be successfully framed in a manner to sway a dozen of John McCain’s friends in the Senate.

    Then, Trump supporters learned that Veselnitskaya was working with Fusion GPS, the political research and PR firm used by the Clinton campaign to formulate and spread the collusion accusations. They learned that the anti-Clinton information that was supposed to be the subject of the notorious meeting was provided by the same firm. They learned that she’d had dinner with Glenn Simpson, the owner of Fusion GPS, both the day before, and the day after the meeting. Needless to say, Trump supporters were skeptical of Simpson’s claim that Veselnitskaya’s meeting with Trump campaign officials never came up during either of their dinner dates, given that the content of the meeting was alleged to be the very treasonous, impeachable crime his firm was being paid to investigate and publicize.

    There’s no need to relive all the details of the Russia collusion scam. The point is that conservatives were following it all very closely, in real time, and they noticed when things didn’t add up. After James Comey told Fox News’ Bret Baier that, even at the time of their interview in April 2018, he didn’t know who had funded the Steele dossier, conservatives noticed when the December 2019 DOJ Inspector General’s report showed that he had been informed of the dossier’s provenance in October 2016. And they asked themselves: Why would he lie? Lying to investigators about one’s knowledge of or involvement in a potentially criminal act is often taken as consciousness of guilt.

    This was the bone that stuck in conservatives’ craw throughout the two years of hysteria over Russia. Why would Comey lie about knowing where the dossier came from? Why would the people involved claim to have seen evidence that never seemed to materialize? If the point of the Special Counsel is to take the investigation out of the hands of line investigators to avoid the appearance of political influence, why staff the office with known partisans and the same FBI personnel who originated and oversaw the case? Why was the relationship between Russian lawyer Veselnitskaya and Fusion GPS being dismissed as irrelevant? Why were people who must know better continuing to insist that the Steele dossier was originally funded by Republicans long after the claim had been debunked? Why wasn’t the media asking even these most obvious questions? And why were they giving themselves awards for refusing to ask those questions, and viciously attacking journalists who did ask them? These journalists are intelligent people — at least they present that way on television. Is it possible that these questions simply had not occurred to them? It seemed unlikely.

    Many Trump supporters reasoned that it was simply not possible to carry on this campaign without some degree of coordination. That coordination perhaps did not take place in smoke-filled rooms (though they weren’t ruling it out), but at least through incentives, pressure, and vague but certain threats all well-understood by people who moved about in the same professional and social class, and who complained that they could “smell the Trump support” when they were unfortunate enough to have to patronize a Wal-Mart.

    If there was a time when Trump supporters feared Robert Mueller’s goon squad, that time had passed by the 2018 midterm elections. Conservatives knew by then the whole case was bunk, and they were salivating at the prospect of watching him get chopped up by the likes of Jim Jordan and Devin Nunes. And he did.

    The collusion case wasn’t only used to damage Trump in the polls or distract from his political agenda. It was used as an open threat to keep people from working in the administration. Taking a job in the Trump administration meant having one’s entire life investigated for anything that could fill CNN’s anti-Trump content requirement for another few days, whether or not it held up to scrutiny. Many administration employees quit because they were being bankrupted by legal fees due to an investigation that was known by its progenitors to be a political operation. The Department of Justice, press, and government used falsehoods to destroy lives and actively subvert an elected administration almost from the start. Perhaps worst of all, some portion of the American population was driven to the edge of madness by two years of being told that American politics had become a real-life version of The Manchurian Candidate. And not by Alex Jones, but by intelligence chiefs and politicians, amplified by media organizations which threw every ounce of their accumulated credibility behind the insanity.

    Twitter avatar for @ColumbiaBugle
    The Columbia Bugle 🇺🇸
    @ColumbiaBugle
    President Trump Gives A Shoutout To @martyrmade’s Viral Thread That @TuckerCarlson Read On His Show This Week. #CPACTexas Image
    The Columbia Bugle 🇺🇸 @ColumbiaBugle

    Tucker Carlson Reading @martyrmade’s Viral Thread On Why So Many Trump Supporters Have Questions About The 2020 Election & Their Distrust Of The Mainstream Media https://t.co/HY6MECgd3s
    July 11th 2021

    For two years, Trump supporters had been called traitors and Russian bots for casting ballots for “Vladimir Putin’s c*ck holster.” They’d been subjected to a two-year gaslighting campaign by politicians, government agencies, and elite media. It took real fortitude to stand up to the unanimous mockery and scorn of these powerful institutions. But those institutions had gambled their power and credibility, and they’d lost, and now Trump supporters expected a reckoning. When no reckoning was forthcoming – when the Greenwalds, and Taibbis, and Matés of the world were not handed the New York Times’ revoked Pulitzers for correctly and courageously standing against the tsunami on the biggest political story in years – these people shed many illusions about how power really operates in their country.

    Trump supporters know – I think everyone knows – that Donald Trump would have been impeached and probably indicted if Robert Mueller had proven that he’d paid a foreign spy to gather damaging information on Hillary Clinton from sources connected to Russian intelligence and disseminate that information in the press. Many of Trump’s own supporters wouldn’t have objected to his removal if that had happened. Of course that is exactly what the Clinton campaign actually did, yet there were no consequences for it. Indeed, there has been almost no criticism of it.

    Trump supporters had gone from worrying the collusion might be real, to suspecting it might be fake, to seeing proof that it was all a scam. Then they watched as every institution – government agencies, the press, Congressional committees, academia – blew right past it and gaslit them for another year. To this day, something like half the country still believes that Trump was caught red-handed engaging in treason with Russia, and only escaped a public hanging because of a DOJ technicality regarding the indictment of sitting presidents. Most galling, conservatives suspect that within a few decades liberals will use their command over the culture to ensure that virtually everyone believes it. This is where people whose political identities have for decades been largely defined by a naive belief in what they learned in civics class began to see the outline of a Regime that crossed not only partisan, but all institutional boundaries. They’d been taught that America didn’t have Regimes, but what else was this thing they’d seen step out from the shadows to unite against their interloper president?

    THE ESTABLISHMENT UNITES
    GOP propaganda still has many conservatives thinking in terms of partisan binaries. Even the dreaded RINO (Republican-In-Name-Only) slur serves the purposes of the party, because it implies that the Democrats represent an irreconcilable opposition. But many Trump supporters see clearly that the Regime is not partisan. They know that the same institutions would have taken opposite sides if it had been a Tulsi Gabbard vs. Jeb Bush election. It’s hard to describe to people on the Left, who are used to thinking of American government as a conspiracy and are weaned on stories about Watergate, COINTELPRO, and Saddam’s WMD, how shocking and disillusioning this was for people who encouraged their sons and daughters to go fight for their country when George W. Bush declared war on Iraq.

    They could have managed the shock if it only involved the government. But the behavior of the press is what radicalized them. Trump supporters have more contempt for journalists than they have for any politician or government official, because they feel most betrayed by them. The idea that the corporate press is driven by ratings and sensationalism has become untenable over the last several years. If that were true, there’d be a microphone in the face of every executive branch official demanding to know what the former Secretary of Labor meant when he said that Jeffrey Epstein “belonged to intelligence.” The corporate press is the propaganda arm of the Regime these people are now seeing in outline. Nothing anyone says will ever make them unsee that, period.

    This is profoundly disorienting. Again, we’re not talking about pre-2016 Greenwald readers or even Ron Paul libertarians, who swallowed half a bottle of red pills long ago. These are people who attacked Edward Snowden for “betraying his country,” and who only now are beginning to see that they might have been wrong. It’s not because the parties have been reversed, and it’s not because they’re bitter over losing. They just didn’t know. If any country is going to function over the long-term, not everyone can be a revolutionary. Most people have to believe what they’re told and go with the flow most of the time. These were those people. I’m pretty conservative by temperament, but most of my political friends are on the Left. I spend a good deal of our conversations simply trying to convince them that these people are not demons, and that this political moment is pregnant with opportunity.

    Many Trump supporters don’t know for certain whether ballots were faked in November 2020, but they know with apodictic certainty that the press, the FBI, and even the courts would lie to them if they were. They have every reason to believe that, and it’s probably true. They watched the corporate press behave like animals for four years. Tens of millions of people will always see Brett Kavanaugh as a gang rapist, based on an unproven accusation, because of CNN. And CNN seems proud of that. They helped lead a lynch mob against a high school kid. They cheered on the most deadly and destructive riots in decades.

    Conservatives have always complained that the media had a liberal bias. Fine, whatever: they still thought the press would admit the truth if they were cornered. They don’t believe that anymore. What they’ve witnessed in recent years has shown them that the corporate press will say anything, do anything, to achieve a political objective, or simply to ruin someone they perceive as an opponent. Since my casual Twitter thread ended up in the mouths of Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, I’ve received hundreds of messages from people saying that I should prepare to be targeted. Others don’t think that will happen, but even most of them don’t think it’s an irrational concern. We’ve seen an elderly lady receive physical threats after a CNN reporter accosted her at home to accuse her of aiding Kremlin disinformation ops. We’ve seen them threaten to dox someone for making a humorous meme.

    Throughout 2020, the corporate press used its platform to excuse and encourage political violence. Time Magazine told us that during the 2020 riots, there were weekly conference calls involving – among others – leaders of the protests, local officials responsible for managing them, and members of the media charged with reporting on the events. They worked together with Silicon Valley to control the messaging about the ongoing crisis for maximum political effect. In case of a Trump victory, the same organization had protesters ready to be activated by text message in 400 cities the day after the election. Every town with a population over 50,000 would have been in for some pre-planned, centrally-controlled mayhem. In other countries we call that a color revolution.

    Throughout the summer, establishment governors took advantage of COVID to change voting procedures, often over the protests of the state legislatures. It wasn’t only the mass mailing of live ballots: they also lowered signature matching standards, axed existing voter ID and notarization requirements, and more. Many people reading this might think those were necessary changes, either due to the virus or to prevent potential voter suppression. I won’t argue the point, but the fact is that the US Constitution states plainly that “The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections… shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof.” As far as conservatives were concerned, state governors used COVID to unconstitutionally usurp their legislatures’ authority to unilaterally alter voting procedures just months before an election in order to help Biden make up for a massive enthusiasm gap by gaming the mail-in ballot system. Lawyers can argue over the legitimacy of the procedural modifications; the point is that conservatives believe in their bones – and I think they’re probably right – that the cases would have been treated differently, in both the media and in court, if the parties were reversed.

    And then came the Hunter Biden laptop scandal. Liberals dismiss the incident because, after four years of obsessing over the activities of the Trump children, they insist they’re not interested in the behavior of the candidate’s family members. But this misses the point entirely. Big Tech ran a coordinated censorship campaign against a major American newspaper while the rest of the media spread base propaganda to protect a political candidate. And once again, the campaign crossed institutional boundaries, with dozens of former intelligence officials throwing their weight behind the baseless and now-discredited claim that the laptop was part of a Russian disinformation campaign. That lie was promoted by Big Tech companies, while the true information being reported by The New York Post about the laptop’s contents was suppressed. That is what happened.

    Even the tech companies themselves now admit it was a “mistake” – Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey said it was an error and apologized – but the election is over, Joe Biden has appointed Facebook’s government regulations executive as his ethics arbiter, so who cares, right? It hardly needs saying that if The New York Times had Donald Trump Jr.’s laptop, full of pictures of him smoking crack and engaging in group sex, lots of lurid family drama, and emails with pretty direct discussions of political corruption, the Paper of Record would not have had its accounts suspended for reporting on it. Let’s remember that stories of Trump being pissed on by Russian prostitutes and blackmailed by Putin were promoted as fact across the media spectrum and used as the basis for a multi-year criminal investigation, when the only evidence was a document paid for by his opposition and disavowed by its primary source.

    The reaction of Trump supporters to all this was not, “no fair!” That was how they felt about Romney’s “binders of women” in 2012 or Harry Reid’s lie that Romney paid no federal taxes. This is different. Now they were beginning to see, accurately, that the institutions of their country — all of them — had been captured by people prepared to use any means to exclude them from the political process. And yet they showed up in record numbers to vote. Trump got 13 million more votes than in 2016 – 10 million more than Hillary Clinton had gotten.

    As election day became election night and the tallies rolled in, Trump supporters allowed themselves some hope. But when the four critical swing states (and only those states) went dark around midnight, they knew.

    Over the following weeks, they were shuffled around between honest critics, online grifters, and media scam artists selling them conspiracy theories. They latched onto one then another increasingly outlandish theory as they tried to put a concrete name on something very real, of which election day was only the culmination. Media and Big Tech did all they could to make things worse. Everything about the election was strange, confusing, and unprecedented – the changes to procedure, unprecedented mail-in voting, counting delays, etc – but rather than admit that and bring everything into the open, they banned discussion of it (even in private messages!), and launched an absurd propaganda campaign telling us that it was – I’m not making this up – the most well-run and secure election in American history.

    Conservatives know – again, I think probably everyone knows – that just as Don Jr.’s laptop would have been the story of the century, if everything about the election dispute was the same, except the parties were reversed, suspicions about the outcome would have been taken very seriously. See 2016 for proof.

    Even the judiciary had forfeited its credibility with these voters because of the opposition’s embrace of political violence. Trump supporters say, with good reason: What judge will stick his neck out for Trump knowing he’ll be destroyed in the media as a violent mob burns down his house? Maybe most judges would do their jobs, but given the events of the last four years it’s not an unreasonable concern, and the concern itself is enough to cast the whole system in doubt. Again, we know, thanks to Time Magazine, that riots were planned in cities across the country if Trump had won. Sure, they were “protests”, but they were planned by the same people as during the summer, and everyone knows what it would have meant. The Chamber of Commerce took the threat of a second round of destruction of its members’ property seriously enough to offer its assistance to the “well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information” – Time’s words, not mine.

    Trump voters were adamant that the governors’ changes to election procedures were unconstitutional. Everything in law is open to interpretation, but it doesn’t require a Harvard Law degree to read Article 1, Section 4 (quoted above) and come to that conclusion. But they also knew the cases wouldn’t see a courtroom until after the election, and what judge was going to make a ruling that would be framed as a judicial coup d’etat just because some governors didn’t go through the proper channels? Even a judge willing to accept the personal risk would have also to be willing to inflict the chaos that would follow on the country. Even a well-intentioned judge could convince himself that, whatever happened or didn’t happen, as a public servant he had no right to impose an opinion guaranteed to lead to mass violence – because the threat was not implied, it was direct. Some Trump supporters, unfortunately, thought the license for political violence applied to everyone; the hundreds of them now sitting in federal jails learned the hard way that it wasn’t true.

    From the perspective of Trump’s supporters, the entrenched bureaucracy and security state subverted their populist president from day one. The natural guardrails of the Fourth Estate were removed because the press was part of the operation. Election rules were changed in an unconstitutional manner that could only be challenged after the deed was done, when judges and officials would be playing chicken with a direct threat of burning cities. Political violence was legitimized and encouraged. Major newspapers and sitting presidents were banned from social media, while the opposition enjoyed free rein to promote stories that were discredited once it was too late to matter. Conservatives put these things together and concluded that, whatever happened on November 3, 2020, it was not a free and fair democratic election in any sense that would have had meaning before Donald J. Trump was a candidate.

    Trump supporters were led down some rabbit holes. But they are absolutely right that the institutions and power centers of this country have been monopolized by a Regime that believes they are beneath representation, and will observe no limits to prevent them getting it. I encourage people on the Left to recognize the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in front of them. You’re not going to agree with the conservatives on everything. But if in 2004 I had told you that the majority of the GOP voter base would soon be seeing the folly of the Iraq War, becoming skeptical of state surveillance, and beginning to see the need for action to help the poor and working classes, you’d have told me such a thing would transform the country. Take the opportunity. These people are not demons, and they are ready to listen in a way they haven’t in a long, long time.

    Darryl Cooper is the host of The MartyrMade Podcast, Co-host of The Unraveling w/Jocko Willink, and author of “that” Twitter thread.

    zn
    Moderator

    The Pile: Inside intel on Rams’ draft picks, how draft unfolded, best quotes, projected fits and more

    Jourdan Rodrigue

    https://theathletic.com/2564788/2021/05/05/the-pile-inside-intel-on-rams-draft-picks-how-draft-unfolded-best-quotes-projected-fits-and-more/?source=emp_shared_article

    If we’re going to characterize the Rams’ 2021 draft class, it’s all about traits, possible upside, and guys who can contribute right away on special teams (where the Rams were among the worst in the league last season) while benefiting from a “redshirt” rookie season at their respective positions.

    Because they felt that the starters at each position on offense and defense have been established — and because they didn’t have a first-round pick, nor even a top-50 pick — this strategy makes sense. Those players are expected to penetrate the starting rotation, yet on a competitive roster where most starters are in place, the Rams needed to add complementary traits in some phases, and depth in others. Drafting the latter, instead of the former, tackles two problems at once, because depth and complementary/developmental players often are the ones who start their careers contributing on special teams in some way. By honing in on special teams (with an emphasis on developmental traits), the Rams can make sure that drafted players can at least contribute in an important phase in their earlier years, as coaches work with them on their growth at their respective positions.

    After the Rams made their nine picks over the weekend, I spoke to multiple sources and evaluators inside and outside the Rams’ organization to get a feel for how this draft played out, what they saw in their drafted rookies during the evaluation process and how these players can fit them schematically. And yes, there was one “pool party” pick.

    Welcome to The Pile — NFL draft edition! Let’s start poking around:

    Round 2

    A big priority for the Rams in this draft was to acquire more picks, as they would start with just six. But which one(s) to trade? They knew they would only have two top-100 picks (plus the compensatory pick, which they’d technically count in that group), and because of the hit-rate on later-round prospects, statistically, it was smarter to acquire more picks to increase that hit-rate.

    So my sense was that the Rams were always going to trade one of their higher-value picks, whether it was No. 57, 88 or 103. It quickly became clear to them that they would need to stay put for receiver Tutu Atwell. Once they believed No. 88 to be more of a purgatorial space in regards to how their own board was falling — and once they saw that South Carolina linebacker Ernest Jones could drop to them at No. 103 as a player high on their board, the middle pick became the tradeable one.

    This led to …

    Pick No. 57: Tutu Atwell, receiver, Louisville

    An interesting note about this pick was that Seattle picked D’Wayne Eskridge at No. 56 (Eskridge has similar traits). Some fans speculated that Seattle jumped the Rams on the target. But Atwell shared post-pick that receivers coach Eric Yarber informed him pre-draft that the Rams were not planning on letting him fall out of the second round, indicating that Atwell was a top choice there.

    One source with knowledge of the Rams’ evaluation process went so far as to say that Atwell was actually one of head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead’s favorite players in the draft class. The source said that the Rams also got wind of a team below them with their sights on Atwell, so they knew they couldn’t trade out of the pick or risk losing him.

    Adding Atwell, plus two other receivers who do very different things from his own skill set, further pointed toward the Rams’ efforts to target traits that are complementary to their existing roster, instead of focusing on ranking position or need, at times.

    Atwell’s small frame (he’s 5-9 and 155 pounds, though “official” recordings of his measurements have fluctuated) is cause for concern, but the Rams say they saw him as a “friendly target” for quarterbacks downfield despite his stature.

    Because of his speed, it’s easy to simply classify Atwell in the category of a “deep threat” — but I’m going to make the informed assumption that Atwell won’t be running 10 “go” routes per game and calling it a day, nor will they send him through traffic on many catches over the middle (without blockers, anyway). He’ll have to compete with veteran receiver DeSean Jackson for touches, but Jackson has not been healthy for a full season for the last two years. Even if 2021 is a little more of a “redshirt” season for Atwell, he’s a long-term speed/explosive play answer for them past Jackson’s tenure.

    Atwell — and probably Jackson, too, if he can stay healthy — is going to be utilized in the at-snap and pre-snap motions (like the jet motion, for example) that McVay uses more than any other coach in the league. He could either be the target for quarterback Matthew Stafford after such a motion as the play develops, or simply work as a decoy to widen up the space in the middle of the field by drawing over defenders during his motion — not only loosening things up in the middle for the run game, but also for intermediate specialists Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.

    Either way, defenses will have to account for Atwell’s blazing speed — Snead said Atwell was the fastest player in the draft by their metrics, and “gets faster the longer the play goes”, which sounds to me like they applied GPS tracking data to Atwell during the evaluation process. Even if Atwell isn’t the target on the play, Stafford’s ability to throw deep means that a defense cannot let Atwell get behind them, so they can’t gamble on staying put when he motions and will have to forfeit a mathematical coverage advantage in order to keep him in front of them.

    Round 3

    The Rams opened this round with a trade of pick No. 88, which raised eyebrows at first, because it was with division rival San Francisco, for Nos. 117 and 121.

    “It’s not game day, so I guess it’s kosher to trade within the division,” Snead said with a laugh. A casual assessment of the trade initially tilted the points in the 49ers’ favor, according to public trade charts. But the Rams run trade options through a computerized algorithm that combines multiple existing trade charts with one of their own creation, and not only did they see themselves with greater value via this trade, but it was also the best offer on the table among a couple of options, a source said. The Athletic’s own measurable ultimately rated this trade No. 25 out of the 28 trades, and negatively favoring the 49ers, because with their pick, San Francisco scooped up a running back and lost nearly 12 percent of the trade value by doing so.

    Meanwhile, the Rams had their sights fixed on …

    Pick No. 103: Ernest Jones, ILB, South Carolina

    The Rams may be hoping that Jones turns into one of the solid value picks in this draft class, and were so high on Jones, according to Snead, that they would have been willing to pick him at No. 88 (which would then likely mean trading out of No. 103 for lesser return) if they weren’t certain he would fall to their pick point. Jones was one of Snead’s favorite picks in this draft. He rated in the highest category on their leadership and communication metric, which was important after losing safety John Johnson III in free agency this spring.

    One source with knowledge of the Rams’ evaluation process said that the Rams didn’t care about Jones’ slower testing numbers (including his 4.7-second 40-yard dash) because data and his game tape showed a knack for navigating mid-field traffic to get into position. The source said it looked like Jones had a “GPS tracker” in his head that mapped out the field, and that Jones could see and predict the “geometry” of how a play unfolds extremely well. Combined with his physicality as a tackler, and the Rams were sold. Another source said that the ideal future for Jones is to run in tandem with a coverage linebacker such as Travin Howard, who will return from a knee injury this season. The Rams also expect to scheme their safeties similarly to how they did in 2020 so that their linebackers aren’t stretched too thin — and were looking for sure tacklers to prevent players from getting too deep into the second level of the defense after first contact.

    McVay said that assistant head coach/running backs coach Thomas Brown gave great insight on Jones, with whom he was familiar from his time at South Carolina.

    Round 4

    Entering the third day, the chatter out of the Rams’ Malibu, Calif., draft house was that they would hone in on players they liked rather than get too caught up in position — and that some in the building would not be surprised if the team didn’t come away with any offensive linemen at all. There was also an emphasis on players with hyper-athletic profiles who, though they may need a year or so to develop at their actual positions on offense or defense, could contribute immediately on special teams.

    Three picks in rounds 3-5 (Jones, Bobby Brown III, Earnest Brown) placed an emphasis on depth along the front seven, too. New defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, defensive line coach Eric Henderson, linebackers coach Chris Shula and special teams coach Joe DeCamillis provided a ton of insight and opinion here (with DeCamillis also weighing in heavily in the seventh round). The Rams also traded with Jacksonville in this round, giving them Nos. 121 and 209 in exchange for Nos. 130, 170 and 249.

    Pick No. 117: Bobby Brown III, DL, Texas A&M

    One evaluator described the 6-4, 321-pound Brown as an “ass-kicker”. He’s only 20 years old, so multiple sources emphasized the importance of getting him into a room with star defensive tackle Aaron Donald, and especially Henderson (who was very high on Brown). The Rams hope that Brown’s ceiling as it pertains to a role on the defensive line is similar to that of Michael Brockers, who they traded to Detroit this offseason.

    Pick No. 130: Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas

    The consensus in the war room was that if Rochell was not a small-school prospect, he would not have made it past the second round. One source said that the Rams hope to put him on the “Darious Williams development plan” as an outside corner because of his highly athletic traits and natural coverage versatility. Williams was a former undrafted free agent out of UAB who grew into a top corner — and whom the Rams were lucky to have as a restricted free agent, so they could tender him on a cheaper deal for 2021. Rochell will start his career as the No. 4 cornerback on the roster (which means he’ll play special teams), but the staff is apparently really excited about his traits to climb higher.

    How excited? Rochell was the Morris “pool party” pick, the source said.

    Pick No. 141: Jacob Harris, TE, UCF

    Harris specifically will be a case study for the marriage between the Rams’ analytics staff and their coaching staff over the next few years. On the analytics side, the “Nerds Nest” — led by Sarah Bailey — used predictive modeling and trait-matching with data from Harris’ athletic testing and film to project what kind of prospect he would turn into (he has freaky athletic traits, but not a lot of actual football experience). Meanwhile, Harris was DeCamillis’ No. 1 player in the draft on his special teams board and should make the roster because of what he’ll bring to the coverage units. Harris met mostly with DeCamillis and tight ends coach Wes Phillips during his pre-draft process.

    There is a lot of excitement about Harris internally because some of his traits and testing numbers projected favorably into a DK Metcalf comparison (although he was also described to me as a total “project” offensively), and he compiled a RAS of 9.88 out of 10 (first among receivers and tight ends in this class). His special teams ability, though, means the Rams won’t have to risk him getting poached off their practice squad, nor will they be wasting a roster spot.

    Pick No. 174: Earnest Brown IV, DL, Northwestern

    Brown drew projected comparisons to the 2020 version of Morgan Fox, who had a career-high six sacks in 2020 after working his way up the roster as an undrafted free agent. Fox is an interior defensive lineman who can stunt-rush and help on the perimeter against the run; Brown very much fits that mold as well and the Rams needed to find a replacement who might be able to get there in two years as opposed to Fox’s four (Fox’s path was derailed by an injury, so it certainly isn’t a knock on him). Snead spoke highly of Brown after the draft, saying that, “his pro day wasn’t so good. But in good old Northwestern fashion, they just play really good defense there. They know how to play football, some of that central nervous stuff.”

    The Rams traded back four spots with Houston, which gave them an extra seventh-rounder.

    Round 7

    The Rams had three seventh-round picks, which may ultimately be important in the long run because they cut two of their three seventh-rounders last year and those players (Clay Johnston and Samuel Sloman) weren’t even retained on the practice squad to develop for a year, then try to make the active roster.

    Pick No. 233: Jake Funk, RB, Maryland

    Funk, who had two ACL repairs prior to his final collegiate season, was cleared medically by the Rams and they hope he can contribute on special teams with an upside as a third-down back. The biggest test for Funk in camp, one source said, will be how he picks up pass protection. He could also compete as a return specialist, in what is shaping up to be a tough competition.

    Pick No. 249: Ben Skowronek, WR, Notre Dame

    The Rams used GPS data for Skowronek, because he couldn’t work out at a pro day due to a foot injury. They believe he can develop into a variety of different positions as a big-bodied target, including as a blocker. McVay didn’t rule him out in a fullback alignment every so often, either, when I half-jokingly asked about it during his press conference. Skowronek will try to compete for a special teams spot.

    Pick No. 252: Chris Garrett, OLB, Concordia-St. Paul

    Garrett wrecked the NCAA’s second division as a pass-rusher, even once racking up five sacks in a single game. One source said that Shula was the coach pounding the table for Garrett, whose 6-4, 245-pound frame and great personality give defensive coaches a great toolkit on which to build. The Rams liked Garrett so much that they drafted him, for fear of losing out on him in undrafted free agency to another team. Garrett’s availability here is said to have broken up some of the monotony of the final few picks — as in, if coaches are this excited about a guy this late, they better draft him.

    Best quotes

    “I will definitely take any advice he gives me, any of it, I don’t care what it is. He could tell me how to write on a piece of paper and I’m going to take it.” — Bobby Brown III, on what it will be like playing with Donald (who is his favorite player).

    “I woke up with the Rams on my mind. I’m just like, they’ve got to come get me. I’ve just got to come do my job there. So, the whole day today, I was just waiting on a call from a California number, waiting on the Rams. All day I’ve been waiting on this call.” — Jones, on how convinced he was that the Rams would draft him on Day 2.

    “I can’t wait. I’ve only dreamed of that. I mean, I remember watching Matthew Stafford throwing to Megatron, so that’s things that only people can dream of.” — Harris, on what it will be like to catch a pass from Stafford.

    Bottom of The Pile

    • The Rams signed 10 undrafted free agents who will compete in the spring and summer. This process begins about three weeks prior to the draft itself, when several position coaches and scouts pair up to determine who they’ll bring into the fold and begin conversations with agents. The final flurry of calls and transactions to secure prospects occurs in the seventh round and immediately after the draft. The undrafted free agents for the Rams are as follows:

    WR Landen Akers, Iowa State
    T Alaric Jackson, Iowa
    S Paris Ford, Pittsburgh
    S Jovan Grant, Merrimack College
    WR/KR Jeremiah Haydel, Texas State
    OL Jordan Meredith, Western Kentucky
    OLB Max Roberts, Boston College
    DT George Silvanic, Air Force
    S Troy Warner, BYU
    DB Brontae Harris, UAB

    • I’ve covered this in-depth since the draft ended, but to reiterate: The Rams did not draft a developmental offensive lineman to redshirt for a year and be a long-term solution for three upcoming contracts in the next year. They have drafted one offensive lineman in the last two seasons in Tremayne Anchrum, a seventh-rounder with a lot of potential. They feel they are in a good spot on the offensive line for now — a source said that things are currently penciled in for Andrew Whitworth (LT), David Edwards (LG), Austin Corbett (C), Bobby Evans (RG) and Rob Havenstein to open camp as the starting lineup. Whitworth will turn 40 this year, Corbett has never played center for the Rams and depth there looks shaky and/or unproven. As I said on the 11 Personnel podcast this week — by the time you notice the ants are in the house, it’s already too late. I’ll add that it’s not like the Rams didn’t like any of the linemen — a couple they did like were gone before their picks.

    • The medical information and backgrounds on players were one of the toughest pieces of the standard evaluation process to overcome, due to COVID-19-related changes to spring all-star events and the NFL Combine Teams were getting full medical information up until the night before the draft on some players. The Rams don’t see a lot of benefit in the events of the combine, but the medical data is crucial to the projection of players — even, as one person within the organization put it, to apply scientific modeling to how a player’s body will gain and distribute weight once they get into an NFL system. Rams director of sports performance Reggie Scott’s insight during this process was crucial to their operation.

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