who wins? your prediction

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  • January 14, 2024 at 7:22 am #148666
    zn
    Moderator

    I always saw 2023 as a set up for 2024. They’re ahead of schedule for that but while I am enjoying everything, it doesn’t feel like this is their year. I will take it as it comes. Another win would be great. But if they lose in the post-season, they’ve already had a fantastic season.

    My prediction? Close high-scoring game but the refs give it to the Lions. Not on purpose–not talking about a “fix.” Talking about a bad ref crew. These are the same guys who screwed up the final game last year against Seattle: https://nypost.com/2023/01/14/rams-seahawks-was-worst-officiated-game-of-the-year/

    I’m half kidding. I am just not confident Rams can overcome having the worst special teams unit in all of human history.

    Stats again.

    Rams offense: 7th in yards, 9th in points, 7th in YPA passing, 12th in YPC rushing,* 8th in 3rd down conversion %

    Rams defense: 20th in yards, 19th in points, 14th in YPA passing, 17th in YPC rushing, 25th in pressure %

    Lions offense:  3rd in yards, 5th in points, 3rd in YPA passing, 5th in YPC rushing, 11th in 3rd down conversion %

    Lions defense: 19th in yards, 23rd in points, 29th in YPA passing, 3rd in YPC rushing, 3rd in pressure %

    …

    * note: How would the Rams rank rushing if we counted only the games Wms played? 

    As it stands, in 17 games, Rams rank 11th in rushing yards per game, and 12th in YPA rushing

    Games w/out Wms, ranked against 17 game season: 27th in rushing yards per game, 31st in YPA

    Games with Wms, ranked against 17 game season: 8th in rushing yards per game, 6th in YPA

    So exactly as you would figure, with Wms. they are significantly better than their normal numbers indicate.

     

    January 14, 2024 at 10:08 am #148676
    nittany ram
    Moderator

    Special teams.

    That’s my fear.

    The Rams miss one or more very makeable FGs that costs them the game.

    January 14, 2024 at 11:11 am #148678
    Zooey
    Participant

    Well, since I arrived in Las Vegas yesterday morning, I am going to have to put some money where my mouth is. My wife is encouraging me to. She grew up in a family that would take a run up to Reno once or twice a year to play in some damn tournament, or other, and she has fond memories of taking buckets of her grandma’s nickles and dimes up to the cashier. I hate giving money away for nothing, so my usual approach is to take twenty bucks, and see if I can get 20 minutes or so out of it, and then walk away.

    But McVay’s first year… I KNEW the Rams were better than anybody thought. So I bet something on them and won, and my wife thinks I can just – you know – do that any time I feel like it.

    So the odds on Kyren Williams scoring a TD this game is, like, +140. And since the Lions don’t have a great defense, and the Rams offense is rolling, and Williams is the straw, I think that’s the money-maker for me.

    And I’m also going to take the 3 points, and probably give the money right back, but…maybe not. Maybe the Rams’ll win, and I will be rolling in dough by winning both bets.

    Turnovers. I think that’s going to be more important than Maher. If the Rams are + in turnovers, they win. It’s not their forte this year, unfortunately. But Goff can do it. I know he can. He can throw nutty INTs, and he can drop the ball. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.

    January 14, 2024 at 11:59 am #148680
    Billy_T
    Participant

    As others have already mentioned, this is basically all gravy at this point. I didn’t think the Rams would have a winning record, much less get into the playoffs. So a win tonight is cherry-on-top stuff. Which also makes me think this is a toss-up game.

    On paper, the Lions are better, and they’re playing at home, so they should win. But the Rams have been surprising everyone for most of the season, so anything can happen today.

    Yep, it’s gonna come down to turnovers. Team with the most takeaways wins.

    Oh, and one more thing: Just getting into the playoffs helps the Rams with free agents this off-season. They’re going to be more attractive to players cuz of what they accomplished in 2023 — win or lose tonight. As in, it’s all good.

    January 14, 2024 at 12:21 pm #148681
    nittany ram
    Moderator
    Zooey wrote:

    Well, since I arrived in Las Vegas yesterday morning, I am going to have to put some money where my mouth is.

    Well whatta’ ya know…

    For decades zooey has been prancing about the board acting all sanctimonious – looking upon us with disdain whenever we penned a bawdy remark.  We would have to endure lengthy pearl-clutching tirades with every utterance that offended his piousness…

    Only to find out he’s a degenerate gambler.

     

     

    January 14, 2024 at 3:05 pm #148690
    Zooey
    Participant
    nittany ram wrote:

    Only to find out he’s a degenerate gambler.

    Okay, degenerate maybe.

    But not a gambler.

    Kyren Williams is going to score a TD today.

    And just to make you guys super jealous…here’s the view outside my hotel window.

    January 14, 2024 at 3:33 pm #148691
    canadaram
    Participant

    The playoffs are where glaring weaknesses  get exposed. I think the Rams problems in the secondary are going to be an issue.  The Lions offensive line is good. The Rams pass rush isn’t good enough to consistently win battles leaving the shaky secondary vulnerable. Goff, Brown, LaPorta and Reynolds will have big games. The lions have a solid ground attack to balance things out. Don’t get me started on the Rams ST issues. These problems will show up at least once.

    The Lions problems defending the pass are well documented but I don’t see it as being a big enough issue for the Rams to overcome in a hostile environment. Lions win 34 – 17.

    January 14, 2024 at 4:07 pm #148694
    wv
    Participant

    I am picking the lions because I’m too frightened of getting my hopes up

    by picking the Rams.

    Lions 30

    Rams 24

     

    w

    v

     

    January 14, 2024 at 7:50 pm #148701
    zn
    Moderator

    January 14, 2024 at 11:28 pm #148708
    Zooey
    Participant

    I’m heading over to the Mirage right now to collect my winnings on the Rams +3.

    January 15, 2024 at 2:17 am #148745
    zn
    Moderator
    Zooey wrote:

    I’m heading over to the Mirage right now to collect my winnings on the Rams +3.

    Well done.

    January 15, 2024 at 10:00 am #148759
    Zooey
    Participant
    zn wrote:
    Zooey wrote:

    I’m heading over to the Mirage right now to collect my winnings on the Rams +3.

    Well done.

    Well, I lost on Williams scoring a TD, but I’m still up $40.

    I’m not ever betting on the Rams again, though. It affects how I watch the game. I remember now that’s why I quit playing fantasy football a couple of decades ago. I just don’t need the extra concerns. I just want to watch the game.

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