Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › Lions writer: ‘Vast difference’ between Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford
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August 4, 2021 at 3:27 pm #131298
ZooeyParticipantLions writer: ‘Vast difference’ between Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford
By Kenneth Arthur on August 4, 2021 10:02 am
There has already been talk this week that new Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff isn’t exactly “throwing deep” in training camp so far. Goff has dusted that noise off by saying that he can only take what the defense gives him — and I’ll rush to his defense to say that “a few practices” does not make a full report — but it’s not a new song being sung.
That’s on a macro level, but on a micro level, one Lions writer pointed to a key example of how certain plays that were available to Stafford over the last 12 years do not seem to be available to 2016’s first overall pick, going as far as to say that “There’s just a difference in mentality” between the two quarterbacks.
The Athletic Detroit’s Nick Baumgardner, in a joint piece with national writer Chris Burke, noted on Tuesday that during one “routine” opportunity for a deep bomb in practice, Goff opted for the much shorter gain that was right in front of him:
”Stafford throws the deep ball there probably 99 times out of 100. Goff targeted Raymond instead, then threw it behind him a bit so it fell incomplete. There’s just a difference in mentality, and that’s assuming Goff even has the arm strength to hit a receiver in stride 50-plus yards deep while going against the grain.”
Some would argue that the difference in that mentality is not necessarily that Stafford is right and Goff is wrong. Should all great quarterbacks take that deep ball “99 out of 100 times”? Why 99 and not 100? What happened during that one play where Stafford chose to not throw it deep? If he would do that one time out of 100, could he maybe do it 10 times out of 100? 15? How many of those 100 get intercepted? How many of Goff’s short chucks get the job done plenty well enough?Those are just some classic 2,000-years old riddle puzzles, but in the case of the upcoming NFL season, it also means that the inverse should be true.
If Goff has been taking that 10 yards over the deep bomb in the last two years, how much different is it going to be for the Rams now that they have the guy who gives it 100-percent of his elbow mustard 99-percent of the time?
I can’t wait to see this vast difference in a real game.
August 4, 2021 at 3:43 pm #131299ZooeyParticipantAlso…this.
Pretty good vid:
August 4, 2021 at 4:33 pm #131301znModeratorI am not convinced by a lot of that analysis.
And I like Stafford so that ain’t the issue.
August 4, 2021 at 7:17 pm #131302
InvaderRamModeratorSome would argue that the difference in that mentality is not necessarily that Stafford is right and Goff is wrong. Should all great quarterbacks take that deep ball “99 out of 100 times”? Why 99 and not 100? What happened during that one play where Stafford chose to not throw it deep? If he would do that one time out of 100, could he maybe do it 10 times out of 100? 15? How many of those 100 get intercepted? How many of Goff’s short chucks get the job done plenty well enough?
yeah.
we’ll see. we could just as easily be frustrated by stafford taking too many gambles when a safer check down would have gotten the first down.
August 4, 2021 at 10:16 pm #131306
HerzogParticipantMan…I hope Goff fucks the league up…. Of course I hope Stafford does too.
August 4, 2021 at 10:32 pm #131307
HramParticipantIf Stafford threw 2-3 50+ yard TDs every game that would 34-51 for the year.
Is that too much to expect? 🙂
August 5, 2021 at 1:40 am #131310znModeratorIf Stafford threw 2-3 50+ yard TDs every game that would 34-51 for the year.
Is that too much to expect?
Yes absolutely it’s waaaaaaaaaay too much to expect. For a few seasons when the right kind of stats were accessible, I used to do breakdowns on long passes (for me that was anything thrown 30 or more yards).
First, the hit rate on those is of course very low. It was actually quite rare and remarkable when someone hit on 50% of those long throws.
AND no one regularly hits on 2-3 a game. To do that, if they did have one of those very rare high hit rates, that would mean they would be throwing them 4-6 times a game. And NO ONE does that. No one. No one throws long 4-6 times a game.
It’s more like around 1.5 to 2 a game. Sometimes a player would avg. 3 a game (and I mean 3 long throws a game, not 3 completions).
…
August 5, 2021 at 12:41 pm #131316ZooeyParticipantI am not convinced by a lot of that analysis.
And I like Stafford so that ain’t the issue.
That’s cool, but I was wondering what a Rams fan would have to say about it.
August 5, 2021 at 12:45 pm #131317ZooeyParticipantIf Stafford threw 2-3 50+ yard TDs every game that would 34-51 for the year.
Is that too much to expect? 🙂
Sounds perfectly reasonable.
And… bear in mind… only about 10% of his TD passes will come on 50+ yard plays, so we’re looking at 350 – 500 TD passes this year. Of course, the Rams will also score some TDs on the ground, and I expect the defense will have a big year, too.
All-in-all, it’s a spectacle.
August 5, 2021 at 1:24 pm #131318znModeratorAnd… bear in mind… only about 10% of his TD passes will come on 50+ yard plays, so we’re looking at 350 – 500 TD passes this year. Of course, the Rams will also score some TDs on the ground, and I expect the defense will have a big year, too.
All-in-all, it’s a spectacle.
I like Stafford, which I’ve said many times. But, as I also said, for many years I used to do the numbers on long passing plays. That’s passes that are long in the air, not including RAC yards.
And. No one has ever done 10%. That’s actually an unthinkable number. I’ve never seen anything even close to it.
As a rule, the numbers go up if you look at passes of 20 yards or more in the air. At 30 yards or more the numbers go way down.
August 5, 2021 at 7:19 pm #131321InvaderRamModeratorAnd… bear in mind… only about 10% of his TD passes will come on 50+ yard plays, so we’re looking at 350 – 500 TD passes this year. Of course, the Rams will also score some TDs on the ground, and I expect the defense will have a big year, too.
All-in-all, it’s a spectacle.
I like Stafford, which I’ve said many times. But, as I also said, for many years I used to do the numbers on long passing plays. That’s passes that are long in the air, not including RAC yards.
And. No one has ever done 10%. That’s actually an unthinkable number. I’ve never seen anything even close to it.
As a rule, the numbers go up if you look at passes of 20 yards or more in the air. At 30 yards or more the numbers go way down.
… so you’re saying more like 150-200 tds for the season?
why are you so down on the rams?
August 5, 2021 at 7:30 pm #131322znModeratorwhy are you so down on the rams?
I never got over them firing Jay Zygmunt.
August 5, 2021 at 8:13 pm #131323ZooeyParticipantI like Stafford, which I’ve said many times. But, as I also said, for many years I used to do the numbers on long passing plays. That’s passes that are long in the air, not including RAC yards.
I’m pretty sure Hram was kidding, though.
You don’t have to do ANY research to know that nobody throws 2-3 TDs of 50+ yards per game.
I mean… how many QBs throw for 34-51 TDs a year of ANY length?
August 5, 2021 at 9:45 pm #131326HramParticipantI was kidding 🙂
And
This turned into a very fun thread 🙂
🙂
August 5, 2021 at 9:52 pm #131327znModeratorI’m pretty sure Hram was kidding, though.
You don’t have to do ANY research to know that nobody throws 2-3 TDs of 50+ yards per game.
I mean… how many QBs throw for 34-51 TDs a year of ANY length?
I was kidding
And
This turned into a very fun thread
Sorry, I guess I got pedantic. 😎 Oddly I often completely fail to pick up on playful irony on the net. It has happened way too often…but I still keep falling for it. Nothing I can do but chuckle at it.
Yes it was a fun thread in spite of my pedantic streak. Or maybe, because of it (in an unintented humor kind of way.)
.
August 5, 2021 at 9:55 pm #131328HramParticipantIf I’m being honest, I’m usually only funny when I’m not trying to be funny. 🙂
September 13, 2021 at 3:59 pm #132150ZooeyParticipantIf Stafford threw 2-3 50+ yard TDs every game that would 34-51 for the year.
Is that too much to expect?
So far, so good.
September 13, 2021 at 4:24 pm #132151znModeratorIf Stafford threw 2-3 50+ yard TDs every game that would 34-51 for the year.
Is that too much to expect?
So far, so good.
It’s pushing the norms but has been done.
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