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By Jeff Kerr
The final week of the NFL season typically has teams that are either seeing their season end or teams having nothing to play for. Whether that’s having a division title or postseason seed secured, some teams do decide to rest players given what’s ahead in January.
For other teams, plenty is on the line. Making the playoffs is a massive accomplishment, but so is winning a division title and clinching a home playoff game. This week even has two 14-win teams squaring off for the first time in league history, with the division title and the No. 1 seed on the line.
There are 11 games that have some sort of playoff implications entering Week 18. Let’s rank them in order of importance, a viewing guide of what to watch this week in terms of playoff importance.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
The Chargers are in the playoffs, but still have some seeding to play for. The Chargers are currently the No. 6 seed, but can move up to No. 5 with a win or Steelers loss. A Steelers win locks the Chargers into the No. 6 seed.10. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) at Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
The Rams have won the NFC West and the Seahawks are eliminated from the playoffs, but the Rams still can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win. Los Angeles plans to rest its starters against Seattle and could fall to No. 4 with a loss and a Tampa Bay win.9. Miami Dolphins (8-8) at New York Jets (4-12)
This game has meaning if the Broncos lose, as the Dolphins make the playoffs with a win and Broncos loss — no matter what the Bengals do this week. A Broncos win eliminates the Dolphins from the postseason.8. Chicago Bears (4-12) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
This is another playoff-seeding matchup, but the Packers’ playoff seed falls in the hands of the Commanders. If the Commanders lose, the Packers have an opportunity to play for the No. 6 seed (and would get it with a win). A Commanders win and the Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed.7. Carolina Panthers (4-12) at Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
The Falcons need help to win the NFC South, but also have to win to officially avoid playoff elimination. The Falcons make the playoffs with a win and Buccaneers loss, wrapping up the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the conference.6. Washington Commanders (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
This matchup is just for playoff seeding, as a Commanders win gets them the No. 6 — and helps them avoid playing the Eagles for a third time. A Commanders loss could allow the Packers to slide into the No. 6 seed, and Washington has lost to Dallas this year.5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-13)
The first game of the Week 18 slate has the AFC North division title on the line. If the Ravens beat the Browns, they lock up the AFC North and get the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. If Baltimore loses, that gives Pittsburgh an opportunity to win the division and drop the Ravens to the No. 5 seed.4. New Orleans Saints (5-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
The scenario is simple for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South with a win and makes the playoffs. The Buccaneers can clinch the No. 3 seed as well with a win and a Rams loss.3. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) at Denver Broncos (9-7)
The Broncos control all the chaos on the final day of the regular season. All the Broncos have to do is win and they will make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, the final team into the tournament. If Denver loses, that opens the door for Miami or Cincinnati to get into the playoffs.The Chiefs will be resting their starters, so the pathway is there for Denver to make the playoffs.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
The stakes are pretty high for the Bengals in this one, as Cincinnati needs to win in order to keep its playoff hopes alive. Because Cincinnati plays on Saturday, the Bengals can put the pressure on the Broncos and Dolphins to win on Sunday.As for the Steelers, they need the Ravens to lose to have a shot at snatching the AFC North title. Playoff seeding is still in play, as the Steelers can clinch (at least) the No. 5 seed with a win — and knock the Bengals out of the playoffs.
1. Minnesota Vikings (14-2) at Detroit Lions (14-2)
This one is for everything in the NFC, perhaps the best regular-season finale the league has ever had. The winner of this game takes the NFC North and clinches home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs — along with the lone first-round bye. The loser gets dropped to the No. 5 seed despite having 14 wins, becoming the first 13+ win wild-card team in NFL history.********
Here’s a nugget from a related article that illustrates the Lions’ challenge at this point:
They beat Minnesota and Buffalo. They must have an “on” button somewhere.
I just argued that in the anchored playoff thread above.
EDIT: That’s not what I argued, but it’s the premise.
Well. Yeah. It doesn’t look good. This team is not flying high in all phases of the game, and Kupp “looks washed” (Cowherd), and Stafford has thrown half a dozen dropped INTs in the last 3 games.
But just for the sake of shooting the bull on a message board, we should acknowledge that football is especially prone to Recency Bias.
Let’s quickly review the season. Starts off with a narrow overtime loss to one of the NFL’s best teams on the road, a game during which the Rams lost 2 MORE OL and Puka Nacua, and still nearly pulled it off, and only lost because, like, half the defense was playing their 1st NFL game.
That was followed by Hell on wheels for a 1-4 start prior to the bye.
Since the bye…well…everyone knows. They’ve won a lot, and the Defense has grown significantly. More than I would have expected in a season. And the offense was doing fine until the last 3 weeks, starting with a 0-TD performance in SFO. That was followed by a low-scoring, Arctic affair, and then…the Rams’ offense ran out of weather-related excuses against AZ.
What stands out from that? Well, Williams, the OL, and Puka Nacua were fine. Stafford and Kupp were disappointing. That’s what we’re looking at here. I look at Stafford particularly. Uncharacteristically, he has thrown a lot of errant balls over the 3 games. Not just the near-INTs. Some bad throws like Goff used to hoist up every so often. So…why?
He didn’t age 10 years after the Buffalo game. He didn’t forget how to play. He’s had pretty good protection. So, he’s hurt. Maybe he got a bad bruise in his shoulder, or fractured his ring finger, or something. In which case… you know… he could be fine in two weeks.
I wouldn’t go so far as to say that something like this is LIKELY. But it’s plausible. And it certainly sounds more reasonable to me than “Stafford and Kupp have hit a wall, and the Rams offense isn’t any good anymore, and defenses have figured out McVay and taken away the passing game.” This is not a 7-9 bullshit offense, even though it has looked like it recently. It’s not.
And at this point, I interrupted my post to go get some evidence to look at, and I have returned with the following screen capture from Statmuse:
Stafford has 6 games this year with a rating over 100, including 4 in a row: NE, PHI, NO, BUF.
He are Stafford’s spray charts (fingers crossed I don’t screw up the formatting on this post) since Buffalo with my emphasis on passes over 10 yards:
Against Buffalo, Stafford was 11/15 over 10 yards.
San Francisco: 1/7 over 10 yds.
NYJ: 2/4 over 10 yds with 1 INT.
AZ: 4/8 over 10 yds.
He hasn’t been throwing as deep for 3 games in a row. Weather was certainly a factor in SF and NY, but maybe not the only factor. All I’m saying.
I propose that we vote against zn’s proposal for a good game against Seattle, and instead put Stafford on ice until next Monday, then fire him up. That’s my plan. I think the simplest explanation for their woes is that Stafford isn’t healthy. As long as it isn’t a torn rotator cuff or something crazy, he could be back to his 100+ ratings the second weekend of January, and then who knows what happens after that?
