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znModeratorPFF: What went wrong for the Los Angeles Rams in 2019?
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-rams-what-went-wrong-2019
Les Snead has built the Los Angeles Rams’ roster with reckless abandon in recent seasons, actively pursuing trades and wielding a generous wallet in contract negotiations at the expense of future flexibility. There is a certain allure to pushing all your chips into the center of the table and aggressively chasing wins right now. That approach to roster building nearly brought a Lombardi Trophy home to Los Angeles in Super Bowl LIII against the New England Patriots. The approach is not nearly as attractive when the losses begin to build, though. After being officially eliminated from the postseason with a Week 16 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Rams are finding that out firsthand.
A season ending outside of postseason contention is shining a light on any and all deficiencies that Los Angeles has shown this season, including the fact that…
JARED GOFF IS PAID LIKE AN ELITE QUARTERBACK, BUT HE’S BEEN FAR FROM IT WITH THIS OFFENSIVE LINE
It’s hard to talk about what is at the root of the Rams’ offensive struggles this season and not begin with the offensive line. That unit went from fifth in PFF pass-blocking grade in 2018 to 31st in 2019, ahead of only the makeshift group that protects Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami. Every quarterback is affected by pressure. Some are affected more than others, and Goff can safely consider himself part of that “some.”
Throwing out his disastrous 2016 rookie season, Goff ranks sixth in PFF overall grade from a clean pocket (92.7) since 2017. Over that same stretch, his 45.9 grade under pressure ranks 20th. That is the second-highest rank difference of any quarterback in the sample, trailing only Matthew Stafford (fourth from clean pocket and 22nd when under pressure). The traditional numbers under pressure are even uglier. Goff’s completion rate on those throws of just 42.4% ranks 30th among 32 qualifiers. Those aren’t the types of numbers that you’re hoping for from your $134 million man at quarterback.
When Goff has time to stand tall and let it rip without defenders around his feet, it’s not hard to see why the Rams were willing to make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. He’ll have some lapses, but he’ll also make some of the best throws that you’ll see at the NFL level in those situations, which was the case for much of last year. Not only was he getting clean pockets, but he was getting extended clean pockets. That extra time was crucial for the brand of passing offense that Sean McVay and the Rams want to run.
In 2018, 66% of Goff’s dropbacks lasted 2.5 seconds or longer, the highest rate of any quarterback in the league. The Rams were able to hold up in protection for Goff and let the crossing and long-developing routes that they like to utilize, particularly off play action, develop. This season, that number is down to 54% (16th among quarterbacks). The poor pass protection up front has sped up Goff and hurt what the Rams did so well on offense a season ago.
It’s no coincidence that his career season in 2018 came when the Rams’ offensive line was a top-five pass-blocking unit. The Rams have paid Goff like one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and in order for that to be a reality right now, the Rams simply have to be better up front. Goff has not proven that he can overcome adverse conditions like other elite quarterbacks around the league (*cough* Russell Wilson *cough*). Since he’s who the Rams have hitched their wagons to, they’ll either have to work this offseason to ensure the conditions are closer to what he saw in 2018 or hope for improvement in Year 5. Either way, it’s not an ideal start for the Rams’ nine-figure investment.
THE RAMS ARE PAYING BIG-TIME MONEY AT SUBOPTIMAL POSITIONS
It’s a shame that the running back position isn’t more valuable in the NFL. The players at the position are some of the most exciting and dynamic players in the game, and they take perhaps the most physical punishment of any position. The truth is that the skillset is largely replaceable, though, and their primary task – running the football – is driven by a host of other factors that are more important than the talent level of the running backs themselves, primarily game situation and run blocking.
The most valuable aspect of a running back’s game is the ability to make an impact in the passing game. Todd Gurley was outstanding in that regard in 2017, posting a receiving grade of 91.1 and 12.3 yards per reception (highest of any running back in the last three seasons with 50 or more receptions).
Since then, with the injury issues that he has dealt with, Gurley’s role as a receiver has taken a massive hit to the point that he has the lowest receiving grade of any running back in the NFL this season (32.4). Gurley is averaging just 0.51 receiving yards per route run (fourth-worst among running backs) and has dropped six passes (tied for second-most at the position). He has actually been pretty strong as a runner this season, but his complete lack of impact in the passing game makes his contract an albatross for the Rams moving forward.
To an extent, the same argument can be made for Aaron Donald‘s contract. It’s hard to fault the Rams’ for locking up Donald long-term. The guy is an absolute monster and has been the best player in the NFL, regardless of position, for several seasons now. His 268 pressures since the start of the 2017 season are 44 more than the next closest defender (Cameron Jordan) and 70 more than the next-closest interior defender (Fletcher Cox). He is a force that can-not be stopped.
He also wasn’t even the most valuable non-QB in his own division over the past three years heading into the 2019 season, because he doesn’t directly impact the most important aspect of defense: coverage.
It’s great to have great players, and Donald is undeniably great, just as Gurley was great before being slowed by injuries. He makes the Rams’ defense significantly better by commanding (and beating) double teams at a high rate. As great as it is to have players like Donald, this season for the Rams goes to show – just as the Chicago Bears’ and Khalil Mack’s season does – that elite pass-rushers just aren’t going to move the needle if their offense and passing game can’t get the job done on the other side of the football.
THREE FIRST-ROUND PICKS FOR TWO PLAYERS WITH CAREER-WORST SEASONS IN 2019
The Rams have been no stranger to trading draft picks for proven NFL commodities, shipping multiple first-rounders out for Brandin Cooks and Jalen Ramsey in recent seasons while also working smaller deals for Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Dante Fowler Jr., etc. Focusing on the Cooks and Ramsey trades, three first-rounders in that short of a span is a lot of draft capital to give up for a non-quarterback, especially given the deficiencies we’ve seen from Goff that were touched on earlier. Both Cooks and Ramsey looked to be immediate high-impact players at high-impact positions, though.
Including last season with the Rams, Cooks earned a passer rating of 112.2 on his targets from 2014 to 2018, ranking fourth among wide receivers with 400 or more targets in that time frame. He was one of the premier field-stretchers in the NFL with speed to burn, and he had the best season of his career with Goff in 2018. He was one of the top-25 wide receivers in terms of PFF receiving grade in the NFL. Early returns were good.
2019 has been a different story for Cooks. He has posted career-lows in PFF overall grade, receiving yards per route run, passer rating when targeted, and nearly every receiving metric in the book. Cooks, along with the Rams’ offense as a whole, has failed to be impactful.
Meanwhile, their midseason acquisition –Ramsey – had been one of the top shutdown cornerbacks in the NFL since entering the league in 2016. From 2016 to 2018, Ramsey’s coverage grade of 90.4 ranked sixth among cornerbacks over that period, and he also ranked in the top six in completion rate allowed (52.9%) and passer rating allowed (71.6) among cornerbacks with 150 or more targets.
Like Cooks, the success of prior seasons for Ramsey didn’t carry over to this season. He has recorded career-lows in 2019 in PFF grade, completion percentage allowed, and passer rating allowed. His results with the Rams were better than his early-season results with the Jaguars, but Ramsey has still been outperformed by the man he replaced, Marcus Peters (for a considerably larger draft pick investment).
Both Peters and Ramsey began playing with their new teams in Week 7, and since that point, Peters has the fourth-highest coverage grade among cornerbacks while Ramsey sits at 26th. On the season as a whole, their ranks are fourth and 40th, respectively. When you trade two first-round draft picks for a player, you expect that to result in an immediate upgrade, and at least to this point, that hasn’t been the case for the Rams.
WHAT OPTIONS DO THE RAMS HAVE MOVING FORWARD?
The lack of early return from the Ramsey trade is part of the larger issue that has made this season for the Rams so disappointing. The aggressiveness they showed in roster building demands immediate results, and those results didn’t come in 2019. Now, the Rams are limited in the ways that they can improve on this 8-7 team thanks to limited cap room (including an impending massive contract that they will owe to Ramsey) to go along with a barren stock of high draft selections.
They made their bed with the guys on the roster, and now they must lie in it. The talent is there for a Super Bowl run – we saw it less than a year ago – but the Rams have put themselves in a situation where they can no longer go big-game hunting with cap space or draft capital to improve the roster. They’re in a situation where they’re relying on improvement from their investments like Goff, Gurley, Cooks, Ramsey, and Rob Havenstein to consistently perform at the level they’ve shown they were capable of in the past. If that doesn’t happen, things aren’t going to get any better for the Rams in 2020, and there isn’t a whole lot of light at the end of the tunnel.
znModeratorCameron DaSilva@camdasilva
finding quality edge rushers is usually harder than finding good ILBs. But Littleton is outstanding and would probably be my pick for the Rams to keep.It’s a toss-up imo
J.B. Long@JB_Long
Sounds like RT Rob Havenstein is shut down for 2019.RB John Kelly could be added this week, with Darrell Henderson on I/R.
znModeratoraeneas1
the niners ranked 3rd best in offensive points allowed heading into saturday night’s game against the rams, but dropped to 5th after the rams offense hung 31 on them
all told, it was the second most offensive points given up by the niners this year, the second most passing yards, the second most total yards, and the second most first downs – only the 12-3 saints have had a better offensive showing against the stingy niners defense in 2019.
znModeratorBobCarl
BEST COMPLIMENT OF AARON DONALD EVER…
BEST compliment I have EVER heard about any player ever, is a reference to Aaron Donald at the 23:30 mark of the video. Pretty much sums up why Donald is worth the $$s he gets.
Former Ram, Chris Long, does this podcast from his studio and invites his dad on the show. To Raider haters it is a lot of Raiders spam, but a great listen nevertheless
Gotta love the Jack Youngblood photo on the wall, and the Todd Gurley figurine in front of the Willie Nelson photo.
Some other interesting points of interest: Defensive Line strategy is discussed at 45:15 … and DPOY is discussed at 47:10
znModeratorI 😍 McVay. All the action going left but then a screen bk to that same side and it still works for a 10+ yard gain. Series football. Watch #57 think it's the 2nd play calling progression (PA pass) and take the over route and now there's room for the 3rd progression (the screen) pic.twitter.com/GnxiXJ8h4O
— Seth Galina (@SethGalina) December 23, 2019
znModeratorQuick thread on Jared Goff from Week 16.
Shame that costly pick-6 marred his night (and #LARams playoff hopes), because some of these throws ranked among his best this season, in my eyes.
1Q | 1st & 10 | Higbee for 20 pic.twitter.com/hgx2oblEBj
— J.B. Long (@JB_Long) December 24, 2019
==
Slide launch point with poise. Turns potential punt from midfield into an eventual TD (Kupp).
3Q | 3rd & 5 | Woods for 26 pic.twitter.com/YMa1g0llxe
— J.B. Long (@JB_Long) December 24, 2019
==
Last one. Layered in perfectly on the run. Puts #LARams in tying FG range.
4Q | 1st & 10 | Higbee for 19 pic.twitter.com/1R3byTFu2l
— J.B. Long (@JB_Long) December 24, 2019
znModeratorIt’s Higbee day in the tweets thread.
===
from NFL Week 16 Team of the Week: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-16-team-of-the-week
TYLER HIGBEE, LOS ANGELES RAMS
Higbee … finished with nine catches for 104 yards and six first-down conversions. He created 53 yards after the catch while forcing two missed tackles, and he added 11 solid snaps in pass protection to cap off an excellent all-round performance.znModeratorRams reduced to playoff observers after season of setbacks
Associated Press
https://www.yahoo.com/news/rams-reduced-playoff-observers-season-205716528.html
Only five teams in the last 10 years failed to make the playoffs in the season after they reached the Super Bowl.
The Los Angeles Rams (8-7) officially joined that disappointing group Saturday night. Their last-second loss at San Francisco encapsulated so much of what went just wrong enough this season for coach Sean McVay and his star-studded roster.
The Rams were good in 2019, and they could end up as the league’s only team with a winning record to miss the playoffs. But a series of setbacks at inopportune times has left them third in the highly competitive NFC West, the only division with two 11-win teams.
Los Angeles is 5-7 since a 3-0 start to this season, stumbling through blowout losses and heartbreakers alike that have left them just outside the postseason picture.
Because so many of their expected difference makers didn’t get it done this season, they’re already headed into a long offseason with several huge roster questions And with equally huge financial commitments to navigate while they move into their palatial new stadium in Inglewood.
“You put so much into it, and you want to see more success collectively with the group,” McVay said Sunday. “You get to go through a lot of good and some bad this season. I think that’s forced us to learn a lot about ourselves. I know it has for me personally. Really my focus is on finishing this season out the right way. Once we get to that point where the season is finished, there will be a lot of good self-reflection.”
The Rams finish their four-year tenure in the Coliseum on Sunday by hosting the Arizona Cardinals (5-9-1), but the game was rendered irrelevant by their loss to the Niners.
Again, the Rams were good. They led for nearly the entire first half, their defense held San Francisco to 334 yards, and they made two gritty scoring drives in the second half.
And again, the Rams weren’t good enough.
They blew that first-half lead by giving up two touchdowns right before halftime, including an interception returned for a 46-yard score. The defense gave up 60 of its 334 yards in the final 2 ½ minutes on a drive to the Niners’ game-winning field goal.
The defense was more consistent than the offense in Santa Clara, just as it has been all season. But the defense also flopped at a few key points, making glaring errors that led to key scores by the Niners. The two third-and-16 conversions on San Francisco’s final drive will ring the loudest, but the Rams’ season-long ability to limit big plays evaporated down the stretch.
The loss still fresh in his mind, McVay cited “the consistency” as the Rams’ biggest flaw.
“I think there’s been instances in all three phases where there’s been some really positive things and then there’s been some other instances where I don’t think we’ve played up to our capability.”
WHAT’S WORKING
The Rams are still ninth in the NFL against the pass, and they leaped up to third in the league with 49 sacks after dropping Jimmy Garoppolo six times. That just makes those third-and-16 mistakes even more painful. But it’s clear the Rams have the ingredients for a stellar pass defense if they can keep most of those players around — which won’t be easy with Dante Fowler, Cory Littleton and Jalen Ramsey among those possibly in line for huge raises.
WHAT NEEDS HELP
Todd Gurley and McVay’s rushing game had another dismal evening in Santa Clara. The Rams have the NFL’s 24th-ranked rushing offense (94 yards per game) after managing 78 yards on the ground. Los Angeles was third in the league with 139 yards per game last season, and its yards per attempt is also down from 4.9 to 3.8. The problems are numerous, and McVay must solve them to avoid wasting another year of his wealthy running back’s career.
STOCK UP
Tight end Tyler Higbee’s late-season emergence as a receiver continued with his fourth consecutive 100-yard performance. That ties the franchise record for 100-yard receiving games in a tight end’s entire career, and Higbee did it all in a row.
STOCK DOWN
It’s difficult for McVay to sugarcoat Jared Goff’s inconsistencies after a game that showcased both his enormous talent and his capacity for game-changing mistakes. Goff went 27 of 46, making pinpoint throws and egregious errors in baffling succession. Goff is tied for 19th in the league in touchdown passes (19), but fourth in interceptions (16).
INJURED
Rookie running back Darrell Henderson is done for the season due to a high sprain of his right ankle. Ramsey played through pain in a strained knee ligament Saturday, but the Rams haven’t decided whether he will play in the finale.
KEY NUMBER
9-7 — That’s what the Rams’ record would be with a season-ending win over Arizona. This franchise hasn’t had three straight winning seasons since 1999-2001 in St. Louis. “You want to have those temporary milestones,” McVay said. “What we can accomplish this week is to try to establish a winning record based on where we’re at after 15 games. Is it where we wanted to be? I don’t think anybody would have said that before the season. It is where we’re at, and all we can do is handle it the right way.”
WHAT’S NEXT
The Cardinals and the final chapter in this lost year.
znModeratorare they pretty much tied to gurley until 2022?
2021.
To release Gurley, it costs 8.4 M in 2020.
In 2021, they get 4.8 M in savings.
znModeratoralyoshamucci
Game 15 … 9ers in SF …
So … where was that team the previous week? I’m literally still considering the fact that we may have thrown that game.
I liked the way we came out. I liked the way we played in the 2nd half on defense.
If it’s your year, you make those 3rd and 16s … it’s their year. So be it.
As you all know I’m a lifer concerned with dynasties … not games or even seasons.
The Great
1) Higbee. Coming into this year I was like “It’s time to replace him” … then we paid him. Then I was thinking … “Okay let’s draft someone who can take meaningful snaps from him that could be better.” Now I’m thinking “Okay, we need two TEs on the field most downs … Cooks is cut or traded. So if there’s an injury we need another TE in this draft in the mid rounds and McVay needs to craft a new offense that can run with 2 TE sets and equally pass” … because having two top tier athletes at TE hasn’t happened since Gronk and murder boy were on the Pats. I’m excited about that offense …
2) Dareus Williams … Has anyone ever seen a 6th at training camp come in and play at this level? Really happy going into next season with our DBs.
3) The playcalling … we ran more complex screens than Ive seen before and that changed the nature of their pass rush. Again this is Higbee helping.
4) Holding their run game to minimal gains.
The Good
5) Gaines was not getting pushed around. He’s a clogger and I want him to get more reps. Brockers can get turned and so can Joseph Day from what Ive seen.
6) Fowler in double digit sacks will get us a 3rd round comp. That’s what I want.
7) Aaron on an off year with double digit sacks.
8) Gurley getting the corner on the TD. He can still beat angles.
9) We were ready to play. Our game plan was solid.
10) Littleton breaking up the Kittle TD … 4 point play. I’m willing to spend whatever to keep him. Kittle isn’t going anywhere and we need an ILB that can cover him.
11) Excellent job by Ramsey drifting off his guy for that INT.
The Bad
12) I don’t not expect that level of rookie mistake by Rapp, but I want more leadership rather than reactivity from Ramsey.
13) Reeder as a backup is fine … but he’s a little slow.
14) Weddle has lost the step that he needs to be effective “every play” … he is still effective on some plays.
15) I wanted more playing time for Okoronkwo … but I’m guessing we’ll get it next week.
The Ugly
16) The pick 6.
17) I can take the blown coverage in the middle of the field … what I cannot accept is a 3rd and 16 from your own goal line without a massive blitz. Dude is standing in his end zone … he needs pressure. No excuse for that. Was that an assumption that he’d play for overtime? Great play by Jimmy G but there’s no way you let him make that throw without being moved off his spot.
znModeratorPlay action>TD for the Ramspic.twitter.com/PjZF1Fs414
— PFF (@PFF) December 22, 2019
znModeratorPFF LA Rams@PFF_Rams
#LARams Jared Goff has the 4th-Highest Total Number of Yards thrown when under pressure this season with 1,120 yardsHe also has the 10th-Highest % of Dropbacks Under Pressure this year among all QBs with at least 400 dropbacks at 36.3%
znModeratorWell its been a rather strange season. Back when the Rams were 3-0, who would have predicted, that by game 16, the opposing team’s would be saying, “We have to find a way to stop Higbee”
Sosa K@QBsMVP
Tyler Higbee really just woke up one day and said “f*** it, I want to be Rob Gronkowski” and he’s been one of the best TE’s in the league ever since. Wild.znModeratorSuh-weet!
AD is 6th in the league in sacks (12.5)
How nutty is THAT?!
The rest of the top-16 sack leaders are edge rushers.
Given his position and rate at which he’s double-teamed… bow smiley
znModeratorHow did Emmanuel Sanders get so wide open for the big play that carried the 49ers to a dramatic win?@CSimmsQB and @FareedNBCS explore in the @verizon Best of Week 16. pic.twitter.com/w8rZ3nooZl
— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 23, 2019
znModeratorBarnwell on what went wrong and what’s next
Los Angeles Rams (8-7)
1. The offensive line collapsed. When I wrote about the reasons the Rams were likely to decline in 2019, I mentioned the offensive line as my biggest concern with the roster. They were replacing veterans Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan with untested second-year linemen Joe Noteboom and Brian Allen.
For a team whose offensive line had been both extremely effective and remarkably healthy in Sean McVay’s first two seasons, it was an obvious point of weakness. And the line has been a mess, although not necessarily in the ways we might have expected. Noteboom tore his ACL in Week 6. Allen looked like he belonged as a starter before suffering a season-ending MCL injury in Week 10.
More disconcertingly, the expected strength of the line — the tackles — has been a disaster. Right tackle Rob Havenstein, who committed only two penalties last season, committed eight in nine games before suffering his own knee injury. Andrew Whitworth hit the wall at age 38, as the superstar left tackle has clearly lost a step. Whitworth has committed a career-high eight holding penalties, tied for second most in the league behind Denver’s Garett Bolles. The Rams will likely need to replace Whitworth in their lineup next season without the benefit of their first-round pick, which went to the Jags in the Jalen Ramsey deal.
Should the Rams have seen this coming? They should have expected their offensive line to decline in 2019. Counting on Whitworth to stay at a Pro Bowl level this late in his career was always a big ask, given that just four tackles in league history have started anything close to a full age-38 season. I don’t think they could have expected Havenstein to decline.
How to avoid making the same mistake: L.A. isn’t likely to have much cap space in 2020, so it needs to use the remaining draft capital it has to supplement the line.
2. They’ve been hit by injuries. I was concerned about the Rams dealing with more injuries, especially on offense. McVay’s team had the league’s fewest adjusted games lost on offense in 2017 and its second fewest in 2018. For an offense that loved to run the same offensive personnel for more than 90% of the snaps when everyone is healthy, it’s tough to imagine that keeping up into 2019.
In addition to the three offensive linemen I mentioned, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee and Todd Gurley have all missed time with injuries. On defense, the Rams lost safety John Johnson to injured reserve with a shoulder injury and Aqib Talib (before he was traded) with a rib ailment, while Clay Matthews was out for three games after breaking his jaw against the Seahawks. Rookie Taylor Rapp, who took over in the starting lineup for Johnson, appeared to blow the coverage on the third-and-16 conversion that set up San Francisco’s winning field goal on Saturday.
Should the Rams have seen this coming? They might have wanted to believe they were immune to injuries after two extremely healthy seasons under McVay, but decades of evidence suggests that no team can avoid the injury bug. The Rams have built a top-heavy team by trading for stars and sending away draft picks, and it came back to bite them in 2019.
How to avoid making the same mistake: At this point, they have established their team-building philosophy. They’re not about to suddenly trade their stars away. They aren’t going to have great depth, and if their stars aren’t healthy, we’re going to see uneven seasons like 2019 in the years to come.
3. The offense lost its identity. I figured McVay would have an antidote to the 6-1 fronts that the Lions showed and the Bears and Patriots emulated last season in limiting what had been a wildly productive Rams offense. For most of the year, McVay hasn’t. Just about every team the Rams have faced has used those six-man fronts at least part of the time, and it has slowed down the outside zone and killed Jared Goff’s effectiveness on play-action. Goff ranks 31st in the league in passer rating on play-action in 2019.
What has been strange is just how McVay has handled the whole thing. The Rams eventually moved to a heavier dose of toss plays and duo runs to try to defeat teams that were cheating toward the edge, but those haven’t been quite as effective. Early in the year, the Rams were conservative with Gurley and framed that as a coach’s decision. In recent weeks, they’ve focused the passing game around Higbee and begun to keep Gurley on the field for virtually every play, even late into blowouts, with McVay saying he had been an “idiot” to keep Gurley on the sideline earlier in the year.
I would put a larger portion of the blame on Goff, because McVay’s offense is still creating makeable passes. Goff’s expected completion percentage is 66.5%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He is instead completing 62.8% of his throws. The only quarterbacks with 200 attempts or more who have a larger negative gap between their completion percentage and expected completion percentage than Goff are rookies Gardner Minshew and Dwayne Haskins.
When the Rams signed Goff to a four-year, $134 million extension in the offseason, expectations rose for the fourth-year passer. Saturday night’s loss to the 49ers, in which Goff mixed drives where he looked unstoppable with a pick-six and a dropped interception on the tying drive late in the fourth quarter, was a reminder of how flawed the former first overall pick still is after four seasons.
Should the Rams have seen this coming? The Lions, Bears and Patriots all used this tactic with varying levels of success at the end of 2018. It would have been naive to imagine opposing defenses wouldn’t emulate them in 2019, although I was also expecting McVay to have more answers early in the season.
How to avoid making the same mistake: McVay needs to come up with new solutions this offseason. The Rams are locked into their offensive core for the foreseeable future, so this won’t be solved by adding weapons around Goff.
4. The unsustainable stuff wasn’t sustainable. In my preseason column, I noted that the Rams had gone 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer, which has historically been almost impossible to keep up. The Rams are 2-3 in those same games this season, including a loss to the Seahawks where reliable kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds to go in a 30-29 defeat.
Likewise, the Rams’ defense was incredible at recovering fumbles last season. Wade Phillips’ unit picked up 12 of the 14 fumbles it forced, while the Rams as a whole nabbed a league-best 71% of the fumbles in their games in 2018. There’s no track record of a Phillips defense or a defense managed by anybody recovering fumbles at that sort of rate over multiple seasons. This season, the Rams have recovered 48.6% of the fumbles in their games, with the defense down to an even 40%.
Should the Rams have seen this coming? I know the Rams are readers, so yes.
How to avoid making the same mistake: There’s not much they can do here. With a 16-game schedule, variance is going to swamp fumble recovery rates.
znModeratorPFF LA Rams@PFF_Rams
#LARams Highest-Graded Players from Week 16:Offense – Tyler Higbee (87.7)
Defense – Dante Fowler (90.2)
Higbee was the highest-graded offensive player in each of the last 3 weeks.
He was also the 2nd-highest in Week 13
Cameron DaSilva@camdasilva
The Rams are 7.5-point favorites over the Cardinals, who just beat the Seahawks in SeattleSosa K@QBsMVP
Higbee becomes the fourth TE since 1970 to go 100+ in four straight as Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham (twice), and Tony Gonzalez all eclipsed 100+ receiving yards in four consecutive gamesI’ve got one more interesting thing to add. The Arizona Cardinals are the worst team at defending TE’s. The Rams play the Cardinals this weekend. Oh, also, no TE has gone 100+ receiving yards in 5 straight. Higbee can set a record.
If you recall, Higbee went 7-107-1 vs ARI.
Lindsey Thiry@LindseyThiry
Rams OBL Dante Fowler – playing on a one-year, $12 million deal — having himself a season.Fowler ranks 7th in the NFL with 11.5 sacks (previous career best was 8). Here’s to thinking Fowler is going to get to Kyler Murray.
December 23, 2019 at 2:20 pm in reply to: the one-shot tweets thread (diff'rent stuff, funny angry interesting) #109671znModerator
znModeratorJ.B. Long@JB_Long
To kick off Arizona week…The @RamsNFL are the first team in NFL history to win 5 straight against an opponent (the Cardinals) while scoring 30+ and allowing fewer than 17 in each game.
Since Sean McVay’s hiring:
33-0
32-16
34-0
31-9
34-7znModeratorInside the two dismal defensive plays that doomed the Rams’ slim playoff hopes
Rich Hammond
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Third-and-16. For an NFL defense, it’s a gimme. Many offenses don’t even try to convert it. For fear of making a bad-to-worse mistake, they run a draw and punt.
Nobody expected that from the San Francisco 49ers late in the fourth quarter Saturday night. Of course the 49ers, in a tie game, went for it, but then something really bizarre happened. They converted. Twice, in the final two minutes of a game the Rams needed in order to keep alive their playoff hopes.
Third-and-16. It’s almost impossible. The 49ers hadn’t converted any of their previous 14 attempts from that distance (or more) this season. The Rams’ defense, when faced with third-down plays of at least 16 yards since the start of the 2017 season, had stopped opponents from converting on 34 of 38 attempts.
Then it happened twice in less than 70 seconds, and because of it, the Rams’ season ended. They’re not going to the playoffs. They’ll be, at best, a nine-win team that finishes third in its (tough) division. Those two plays didn’t ruin the Rams’ season, or even solely cost them this game. There was a missed field goal, a terrible interception return for a touchdown and a handful of other lapses that set this table.
“I think those two plays are indicative of the effort that our defense gave,” coach Sean McVay said, “and it’s unfortunate that they ended that way because they had put together a really good performance against a tough offense. But those two plays hurt us and we’ve got to be better there.”
But really, third-and-16? Twice? The Rams, in a 31-31 tie, needed one stop on San Francisco’s ensuing drive, which started with a six-yard loss on a sack of Jimmy Garoppolo and an incomplete pass. On third down, Garoppolo threaded an 18-yard pass over the middle to receiver Kendrick Bourne.
That stung the Rams, who had one timeout left and thought, reasonably, that they might get the ball back near midfield with a chance to win. OK, so that wouldn’t happen, but after a one-yard run by Raheem Mostert and another sack, this one for a loss of seven yards by linebacker Samson Ebukam, the 49ers faced another third-and-16 play with less than a minute to go, and at least the Rams would go to overtime.
Of course they would, right? Entering Saturday, 12 of the NFL’s 32 defenses hadn’t allowed a single third-down conversion of more than 16 yards this season. Only five teams had allowed more than two all season. No team had allowed more than five, and it took Houston 14 games to do that.
It took only a few seconds for the Rams to completely unravel. On another third-and-16 play, Bourne and fellow receiver Emmanuel Sanders lined up to the left of the formation. They split at the snap, with Bourne heading toward the middle of the field and Sanders drifting toward the sideline.
Rams nickel corner Nickell Robey-Coleman stuck to Bourne, as he was supposed to, and Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey played off Sanders in a zone concept, expecting rookie safety Taylor Rapp to pick up coverage of Sanders. Only he didn’t. Ramsey passed off Sanders to absolutely nobody, as Rapp ran toward the sideline, away from Sanders and toward an area not occupied by any 49ers targets.
“I was supposed to be a little over the top on that concept,” Rapp said.
Here’s the dots for the third-and-16 that ended the Rams season. I’m not sure what Taylor Rapp thought the coverage was supposed to be. pic.twitter.com/IakGOYwEnZ
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 22, 2019
The 49ers, and thousands of their fans, noticed, and just as Rams linebacker Cory Littleton took a leap in his direction, Garoppolo stepped into a long throw toward the wide-open Sanders, who completed the 46-yard pass play and got the 49ers to the Rams’ 23-yard line. Three plays later, they kicked a 33-yard field goal for a 34-31 victory that dropped the Rams to 8-7 and ended their slim playoff hopes.
McVay said the Rams were “in a certain call that entailed some communication” but said he didn’t “want to get into the specifics of what should have occurred on that.” Ramsey had no such qualms.
“We were in a form of two-man,” Ramsey said. “We had an adjustment to check to, because they were (in) condensed splits. I played my technique, trusting that he was going to be over the top. He wasn’t. So that’s what happened.”
Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey after losing 34-31 to the Niners. pic.twitter.com/euSiIYoqab
— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) December 22, 2019
Don’t scold Ramsey for being honest. He was asked what happened on the play and he explained it. Ramsey didn’t disparage a teammate and Rapp, in a separate conversation, owned up to the error.
Also, don’t forget Garoppolo’s role in this whole fiasco. He actually stood in the pocket and made the throws. That couldn’t have been easy, given that the Rams had spent the previous two quarters hitting him like a blocking sled. The Rams sacked Garoppolo six times in the second half, yet he stood in the pocket while it collapsed around him and made two world-class throws. Of course, they got help.
“(The Rams) played a two-shell defense,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said, “and you’re going to work Bourne in the middle if it’s a two-man type deal, but the safeties got so high and wide. I think it was somebody (Rapp) got flat-footed in the middle of the field and we were able to get over the top of them. It was a good throw, great route. Sometime we tried for earlier in the game, but we didn’t get the right coverage for it, but we got it there and the guys made it happen.”
What a strange journey for the Rams’ defense. After last week’s dismal effort in defeat to Dallas, the Rams couldn’t have been stronger in the first quarter. On the 49ers’ first three drives, the Rams allowed only one first down and recorded an interception as they soared to a 14-3 lead with a sharp offense.
The 49ers rallied and took a 24-21 halftime lead, but one of those San Francisco touchdowns came courtesy of Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who threw an absolutely dreadful interception that Fred Warner returned 46 yards for a touchdown. The Rams rallied on both sides of the ball in the second half, though, and Garoppolo looked skittish even though he made enough throws to keep his team in the game.
On the latter third-and-16 play, Littleton nearly got his extended hand to Garoppolo’s arm.
“I feel like we put good pressure on them,” Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald said. “We was there. He stood in the pocket and made those good throws. We were about to get him. If we had a second longer, we would have had him, but he made two good pass plays to help his team win.”
And they cost the Rams’ offense a chance at redemption. Near the end of a quiet second half, the Rams — trailing 31-28 — woke up and drove 41 yards in seven plays to set up Greg Zuerlein’s game-tying 52-yard field goal. McVay was mixing his play calls effectively and Goff, after the One Big Gaffe at the end of the second quarter, had been throwing with accuracy and rhythm.
Given one more chance, after a third-down stop, the Rams seemingly had a good chance to drive down the field again and score, or at least take some momentum into overtime.
“Yeah, you hope so,” Goff said. “That’s where you tip your cap to what (the 49ers) were doing. They had a couple good conversions there at the end of the game and were able to finish. You go back in the game and you can look at a million plays. Myself personally, I’ll look at that pick six for a long time and wish I wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on that. Maybe it would have been a different game and we would be talking about something else right now.”
Instead, it’s over. The Rams, a year after a trip to the Super Bowl, will be done after next Sunday’s home game against Arizona. They will face an offseason full of questions, not only about the shortcomings of 2019 but about how they can improve amid a challenging salary-cap landscape.
The Rams aren’t going back to the Super Bowl, or the playoffs, or extending to three years their run of 10-win seasons. It is, by all measures, a failure, one that will take a while to unpack.
“It’s extremely disappointing,” Goff said. “It’s not even close to the standard we want to hold.”
znModeratorWhat went wrong for Rams in 2019? The most significant shortcomings
Lindsey Thiry
THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — The Los Angeles Rams did not anticipate that their season would be cut short without a playoff appearance.
Not after a dominant run to Super Bowl LIII less than a year ago and not with a roster featuring three players who over the past two seasons have signed record-breaking deals — quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Certainly not after adding cornerback Jalen Ramsey, whom the Rams acquired in October for two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick and who is soon expected to earn a record-breaking deal himself.
But, after winning consecutive division titles, the reigning NFC champions will finish third in the NFC West, becoming the fifth team in the past 10 seasons to miss the playoffs the season after reaching the Super Bowl.
“It’s all been disappointing,” Rams coach Sean McVay said Sunday about last season’s 13-3 loss to the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl and missing the playoffs this season. “They both hurt a lot.”
The Rams will play a regular-season finale against the Arizona Cardinals at home on Sunday before entering the longest offseason in McVay’s three seasons.
If there’s any silver lining, it’s that a win Sunday will allow the Rams to finish 9-7, earning them their third consecutive winning season for the first time since 1999-2001.
“It was just a bad year for us,” Donald said. “We have to bounce back next year.”
So with 2019 essentially in the books, here’s a look at what went wrong:
Coaching
There’s no question McVay experienced his greatest challenge in his third season. After turning a mediocre organization into a two-time division winner, McVay was forced to learn how to navigate a roller-coaster season.
McVay proved himself as a motivator through the ups and downs, evident by bounce-back performances after lackluster losses to the Steelers, Ravens and Cowboys. However, the 33-year-old McVay was unable discover the key to getting his team to consistently perform.
“I think there’s been instances in all three phases where there’s been some really positive things and then there’s been some other instances where I don’t think we’ve played up to our capability,” McVay said. “That’s all of us. That’s coaches, players — we’re all in this thing together.”
As the offensive playcaller, McVay often struggled to find and sustain a rhythm. The offense, a juggernaut in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three receivers) and masters of play action last season, never developed an identity.
On defense, Wade Phillips’ unit played dominant at times but also was prone to total meltdowns. The Rams’ defense gave up more than 40 points in three losses.
“We had a lot of ups and down,” Donald said. “When you come out flat some games, you’re going to lose. We had to be more consistent.”
The offensive line
The Rams rolled the dice entering the season with only three experienced linemen after left guard Rodger Saffold departed in free agency and the Rams declined the option on center John Sullivan’s contract.
2020 NFL draft coverage
The impact of their departures can’t be overstated.
A season after the line boasted the top pass block win rate in the league at 74%, this season’s line ranks 23rd, winning their pass block at a rate of 56%, according to ESPN Metrics powered by NFL Next Gen Stats.
Coaches expressed confidence that young players, specifically left guard Joe Noteboom and center Brian Allen, would be ready to step up. Noteboom and Allen, both first-year starters, showed their youth and inexperience, before each was put on injured reserve because of season-ending knee injuries.
However, it wasn’t just Noteboom and Allen who performed below standard.
Left tackle Andrew Whitworth, in his 14th season, offensive guard Austin Blythe and right tackle Rob Havenstein did not consistently perform to the level they did last season.
In addition, when Noteboom, Allen and eventually Havenstein were injured, the Rams had to turn to rookies David Edwards and Bobby Evans, as well as second-year pro Austin Corbett, whom they acquired in a midseason trade from the Cleveland Browns.
The line showed improvement starting in Week 11 but did not have the experience or personnel to allow McVay’s offense to operate smoothly.
Quarterback play
Goff was among the most inconsistent performers of the season. At times, the fourth-year quarterback appeared unstoppable. At other times, Goff did not appear to play the part of a franchise quarterback.
If anything was learned from Goff’s season, it’s that the former No. 1 pick, who signed a four-year extension worth $134 million last September, needs a strong supporting cast — and a sturdy offensive line — to have success.
Through Week 16, Goff completed 62.8% of his passes for 4,319 yards with 19 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. His total QBR of 47.5 ranks him 25th in the league, a season after he posted a total QBR of 63.7, which ranked 10th.
Todd Gurley mystery
Coming off a disappearing act late last season, Gurley’s situation was unsettled going into the season and created a dark cloud over the offense that never lifted.
McVay was asked weekly about Gurley’s situation and he continually denied that Gurley was on a load management program and went so far as to label himself an “idiot” for not getting Gurley more involved.
But there’s more to the Gurley story. McVay is no fool, and Gurley did not show the physical burst that made him a first-round pick and enabled him to perform among the NFL’s best the previous two seasons.
After rushing for more than 1,200 yards in each of the past two seasons, Gurley has rushed for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns in 14 games (inactive Week 6, thigh bruise). He does not have a 100-yard rushing game.
Defensive woes
In Phillips’ third season as defensive coordinator, the Rams’ defense became prone to too many momentary lapses and too many total meltdowns.
“We just didn’t play consistently,” outside linebacker Clay Matthews said. “Our consistency is probably the biggest message or the biggest thing that we would probably need to hit on in order to put us in a better position.”
The momentary lapses were on full display last Saturday, in a 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, when the 49ers converted twice on third-and-16 to march down the field and kick a winning field goal.
The total meltdowns occurred in embarrassing losses to the Buccaneers, Ravens and Cowboys, when the Rams allowed each opponent to score more than 40 points.
znModeratorLMU93
Rams played one of three toughest schedules this year
At least according to sources I’ve looked at, including Pro-Football-Reference (t-1st), TeamRankings.com (1st), and others.
Just a factor we should keep in mind. Rams finished the season 2-5 vs. playoff teams and if they beat Arizona will be 7-2 vs. the rest of the league.
znModeratorESPN Stats & Info@ESPNStatsInfo
The @Chiefs have held consecutive opponents without an offensive touchdown for the first time since the 2006 season. Over the last 5 games, Kansas City is allowing 9.6 PPG. That’s the fewest in the NFL over that span.ProFootballReference@pfref
This is currently Lamar Jackson’s 6th game this season with 3+ TDs and 0 INTs.The only QBs to do that six times in a season are Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Tony Romo
Seth Walder@SethWalder
Chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, per FPI:49ers 53%
Saints 28%
Packers 10%
Seahawks 9%znModeratorPFF ReFocused: San Francisco 49ers 34, Los Angeles Rams 31
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-16-pff-refocused-san-francisco-49ers-34-los-angeles-rams-31
The 49ers struggled against the Rams’ interior defensive line, and they fared especially poorly against Aaron Donald. Center Ben Garland and right guard Daniel Brunskill seemed to struggle the most against Donald, as they lost several exchanges with him.
The Rams seemed to know that they had a problem on their hands with the 49ers’ defensive front, so they used rollouts and play-action in an attempt to slow the ‘Niners down. This worked for a while, and Jared Goff did make some nice throws, but Goff’s game will be marred by the pick-six that he inexplicably threw to Fred Warner.
Robert Woods was the best offensive player for the Rams on Saturday night. He was effective on many of the Rams’ successful play-action rollouts, and he finished the game with eight catches for 117 yards.
Aaron Donald had another extremely disruptive game against the 49ers. He was a force both rushing the passer and in run defense, and he finished the game with two sacks.
Jalen Ramsey played a part in two turnovers in this game. He made a great play in zone coverage to read Garoppolo’s eyes and come up with an interception. Ramsey also caused another pick when he broke up a pass on a slant pattern and popped the ball into the air for Darious Williams to intercept.
znModeratorI just saw it is minor, $850K.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/rob-havenstein-16781/
Over.the.cap has it at 1.65 M. https://overthecap.com/player/rob-havenstein/3905/
znModeratorPie
for
everyone
Happy Holidays!
…
znModeratorThat article actually thinks it’s viable to talk about Rams possibly trading Donald.
…
znModeratorMy vote.
I am just not discouraged by that game. In the 2nd half they fought back and tied it. That’s on the road against the 2nd ranked defense (1st against the pass). Without a running game (72 yards on 24 carries). All they had on offense was the passing game. Yet they fought back and tied it.
SF allowed only one other 300+ yard passing game all season, and that was against New Orleans.
Granted giving up 2 3rd n 16s will go down as one of the worst Rams defensive blunders ever.
But they managed to play a good game on offense (with some bad moments but still–coming back from your own mistakes is a good thing). And that’s with 3 inexperienced injury replacements on the OL against one of the top 5 defensive pressure teams (the Rams achilles heel).
….
znModeratorBased on their contracts, we are stuck with Cooks & Gurley for two more seasons, Havenstein is one more. Don’t have the cap space to sign neither Fowler nor Littleton. One option is to tag one of them, & let the other walk, or let both walk.
Jack they have the cap space to sign one of them (Littleton or Fowler).
And if Hav is traded or let go in the 2020 off-season he would represent some cap savings.
znModeratorNick Wagoner@nwagoner
Seahawks fall to Arizona. Doesn’t change much for #49ers next Sunday in Seattle. Niners win or tie would wrap the NFC West division. A win would clinch the No. 1 seed. A tie could mean anything from 1 to 3, pending other results. And, for now, Niners ascend back to No. 1 in NFC. -
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