aeneas1

well if you believe the folks at football outsiders, the rams defensive line was already one of the bad boys in the league, one of the best in the business, for both the 2012 and 2013 seasons. football outsiders ranked the 2012 rams defensive line 2nd and the 2013 rams defensive line 5th.

if gw’s history is any indication, the rams secondary should improve enormously against the pass, at least in terms of completions allowed.

InvaderRam wrote:

zn: Where they need to improve the most…and it’s not just Bradford…is on 3rd down.

That’s their big Achilles heel.

what were the 3rd down stats last season before and after zac stacy? just curious.

I just did the 1st 7 games.

4 games w/Richardson, 25.8% conversion rate on 3rd down
3 games w/Stacy, 38.4% rate

38.4% for the season would rank 14th in the league.

25.8% would rank below 32. It would rank 33rd. (The actual lowest was the Jags with 31%).

Yeah just 3 games but I don’t think it was an anomaly. 25.8% to 38.4%? From worse than the Jagz to better than the Eagles? That’s a pretty bloody big improvement. And 2 of those 3 games were against top 7 defenses. That would be good if it’s real and it holds up.

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• This reply was modified 10 years, 6 months ago by zn.
• This reply was modified 10 years, 6 months ago by zn.

InvaderRam wrote:

trying not to dissect bradford’s play too much. just taking his career so far as a whole? he compares very favorably to eli manning. in fact. he rates better.

eli manning (first four years)
57 games 55 started 54.7% 11,385 yards 77 tds 64 ints 6.3 ypa 73.4 passer rating

sam bradford
49 games 49 started 58.6% 11,065 yards 59 tds 38 ints 6.3 ypa 79.3 passer rating

the one area where he pales is… durability.

i think he can be better than eli. i think numbers wise. even without considering all the circumstances under which bradford has had to play. the main thing holding sam back is his ability to stay healthy.

Where they need to improve the most…and it’s not just Bradford…is on 3rd down.

That’s their big Achilles heel.

I got that from looking at the numbers for the last 2 years. Bottom third of the league.

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I said I wouldn’t jump in but the thread is falling so I get to pounce on it. So..here’s my thing on Bradford. I put it up before but it got lost in the shifting sands of board moving.

My bold and reckless claim is that Bradford has already “made it” and if he plays at less than his previous level, it will be a regression.

That’s not saying he can’t improve. He can. They need to throw more and more successfully in the 11-20 yard range, for example. And he needs to improve his performance under pressure (though he already plays well against the blitz). (Against the blitz in 2013 he had a 69.6% completion percentage which is 2nd only to Peyton Manning).

And they really do need a consistent, reliable, productive game-in and game-out receiver. I don’t even mean a star. Just someone who can catch 70 balls a year at least and get 1000 yards.

BUT–in terms of all you need to compete, and have a winning record? Bradford has already proven to me that he can uphold his part of the bargain. Or better–Bradford has already done it.

I base that on this–a very simple formula (which some might remember).

If you look at the Fisher Rams and just count the games where they have 2 key things, he has played well on average.

Those 2 things are:

1. a relatively healthy OL. At worst, just a couple of short-term injury replacements (like when they replaced Dahl for a couple of games in the 2nd half of 2012)… all lines go through that, more or less. But it can’t be the kind of OL Armaggedon Rams fans have seen all too often, like from the 1st half of 2012 (where they had 3 injury replacements, including both LOT and OC, which is deadly). Now why do I have this criterion? The “relatively healthy” OL criterion? Because NO qb plays well if the OL falls apart (beyond ordinary level of a couple of injuries).

2. A running threat. I only say that because he didn’t play as well early in 2013 when Richardson could not run. Now to be fair, some rare qbs CAN excel without a running threat. The majority of good qbs can’t. (And I mean the vast majority of GOOD qbs…not talking about game managers like Alex Smith). Either way, this feeds into a clear Bradford strength–play action. Bradford is one of the 3-4 best play action qbs in the game. (In 2013, Brafdford’s completion percentage on play action was 9th in the league. That’s better than Roethlisberger, Stafford, Kaepernick, Brady, Flacco, Romo, Foles, Wilson, Cutler, and Luck.) And btw I am not saying he plays well when they run well. I am saying he plays well when the defense knows the RB is a threat and accounts for him–and sometimes shuts him down. It’s not running yards, though that never hurts, it’s the THREAT of a run that counts here.

If you look at the Fisher Rams, Bradford has at least 11 games that meet both conditions–the 2nd half of 2012 (when they got the OL starters back) and the final 3 games of 2013 (when Stacy took over for Richardson). (You could count up to 14 games but then the criteria get fuzzier). He did not play as well in all of them, but on average he played well with those things–better than he did without those things. And btw those 11 games include 8 against top 12 defenses. Or if you prefer, 7 against top 8 defenses. Or if you still prefer, 6 again top 7 defenses.

How well did he play?

In those games he averages a 64.3% completion percentage, 2 TDs, 0.63 INTs, & a 100.7 qb rating.

There’s other stuff.

If you look at big passing plays of 25+ yards, Bradford’s 2013 numbers across 16 games would have ranked him 9th in the league, ahead of Palmer, Rodgers, Romo, Brady, Kaepernick, Luck, and Newton.

On long passes (which is different from big plays of 25+ yards cause the former includes RAC)….Bradford’s 1.42 attempts a game is just a hair behind Brady and more than Rodgers, Romo, Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck, Manning, Smith, Ryan, Stafford, and Rivers.

So I am saying he was already playing well enough to be legitimately considered a good tier 2 qb. Like I said. IMO if he DOESN’T play that well in 2014, I will consider it a regression.

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I dunno, I get the impression Salimu is more of a guard at this level.

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