=============================================================
(via Ram43)
Junkman

Before I get started, this is a Pro Football Focus thread. If you don’t like PFF stats, don’t trust them, don’t believe their acumen, believe they are fundamentally flawed for whatever reason, I’ve heard the arguments, I don’t want to hear it again. Just move along now, please, nothing to see here.

~~

So, our frenemies over at PFF are heaping their statistical praise on one of our own. This week, for the first time, Rams Nation’s prize rookie Aaron Donald has crept to the top of the leaderboard for NFL DT/NTs.

** OPTIONAL READING. As a reminder of how PFF stats work, it works like golf scoring but upside down – that the higher the score, the better. A “par” for a play or a game is an even zero. Every snap you play, your score can go higher or lower. A good game might give you anywhere from +1 to a +2 where an incredible game could give you +8. I’ve seen as high as +14 for Quinn’s game against Chicago last year. Same thing happens for bad games, where the worse your game, the lower your score. If you play consistently from snap to snap, the more snaps you have, the more positive (or negative) your score will be. PFF scores are also broken down into general categories like Pass Rush and Run Defense and Pass Coverage. Just like in a golf tournament, the numbers are accumulated from game to game.

Aaron Donald’s aggregate overall PFF score of 16.5 leads all NFL DTs/NTs by a slight margin. Second best is Kawaan Short at 16.0, followed by Gerald McCoy at 15.8. I honestly don’t care what the statistical measure is, that’s some great company to be in.

Donald’s run defense score of +9.6 is second in the NFL, while his pass rushing score of 5.1 is 10th best. This is out of 72 total DTs/NTs.

Donald’s top ranking is even more impressive when you consider the relatively few snaps that Donald has had. If you normalize the rankings on a per snap basis, then Donald’s lead widens among the full time DT/NTs, even though he falls 2nd overall to PFF score per snap to Ryan Davis who only comes in to rush the passer and has had 1/3 the snaps.

As one might expect for a rookie, Donald is improving. He hasn’t had a single negative game the entire year. He’s only had one negative category all year, which was pass rushing against Minnesota the first game. The general trend is up, where the Seattle game was his best game at +4.9

There is one more stat that jumps out at you when looking at Donald, a proprietary PFF stat called “Stops”, which is a solo tackle or sack that constitutes an offensive failure. Not only does Donald have 14 stops, a very high number, but this is the same as his tackles and sacks (as tallied by PFF). That is, every time Donald has made a tackle or a sack, PFF considered it an offensive failure. Donald’s 14 stops is tied for 5th among DT/NTs, and 3rd best on a per snap basis (behind a couple of run stuffing guys).

Is there room for improvement in Donald’s game? Certainly. Donald has had 132 pass rush snaps and 90 run D snaps, so it’s a little surprising that his PFF run D score is better than his pass rush score. Coming into the season, my belief was that Donald would have had more impact with his pass rush skills. But the fact that Donald is already having an impact with his run D is a testament to how high of a quality player Donald is.

A note for the DROY race, Donald is neck and neck on PFF grades with Khalil Mack and his 20 stops. But Mack has 170 more snaps that Donald. So if Donald keeps up his current pace (and increased snaps per game), it stands to reason that he should shoot past Mack. No other rookie is even close at the moment.

DPOY, by contrast, already seems like a runaway win for JJ Watt, whose +37.7 beats any player at any position by a wide margin. 2nd best (any position) is Von Miller at +23.7.

Back to Donald, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. We’re only talking about PFF stats, and only after 6 games for a rookie, so we shouldn’t be calling the engravers in Canton just yet. But love ’em or hate ’em, PFF stats have a remarkable ability to catch people’s attention. If people were not aware of Donald before, you can be pretty sure they are noticing if him now.

Zooey wrote:

I’m finding myself in agreement with Karraker this entire year, and I agree with him here – not that he said anything controversial this week. The use of Tavon Austin is my biggest head-scratcher vis-a-vis Schottenheimer. He doesn’t seem to know what to do with him, OR Austin just isn’t very good.

I was hoping Austin was going to be Eric Metcalf.

Yeah, its not about ‘getting Tavon his touches’.
Its about what kind of routes will give
him the best chance to use his special skills.

I do NOT think lining him up in the backfield and
running him up the get is using him correctly.
I also dont think throwing him those stupid little flairs
is using him correctly. Martz would know how to use him.

He needs to get the ball farther out where there’s
more space and less defenders.

w
vx

Winnbrad wrote:

Yep. The WR’s are respectable, which is a tremendous leap forward compared to where they were just two seasons ago.

In 2012 this team was starting Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson.

Brandon

F#^@%*$

Gibson

Wow.

I watched some of the Bills Vikes game on replay.
Watkins looks like an allpro already.

Rams coulda had him, and then picked A.Donald
and then taken an OLinemen in the second round.

I dunno.

w
v

The rams would miss out.

Division winners would be:
Cardinals
Cowboys
Lions
Panthers

Wildcards would be:
Packers and Eagles (5-2 and 5-1)

49ers and Seahawks wold miss the playoffs.

http://www.nfl.com/standings

w
v

Winnbrad wrote:

Excellent. Not too long ago, Pettis’ level of talent would have made him a starter on this team. Now he’s been cut.

I feel bad for Pettis, but it’s a good sign for this football team.

Agreed.

I’m a little disappointed in Britt though.
I was hoping he’d be more of an impact player.

w
v

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/seahawks/2014/10/19/earl-thomas-were-playing-the-referees-too/
Earl Thomas: ‘We’re playing the referees too’
Posted by Jayson Jenks

ST. LOUIS — Seahawks safety Earl Thomas was asked if he was surprised if the Rams’ fumble at the end of Seattle’s 28-26 loss wasn’t reviewed. It looked as if Sherman had recovered the fumble initially, but the Rams’ retained possession and ran out the clock.

“Yeah,” Thomas said. “At least give us a shot. But you know what? I’m not surprised with the referees this season. If you really look at some plays, we’re playing more than our opponents. We’re playing the referees too. I don’t care what anybody is saying. Something is wrong. That needs to be brought up.”

Thomas was asked if the refs gave the Seahawks an explanation: “There’s never an explanation,” he said. “It’s kind of crazy how football is turning out now. You give a guy, just because he wears a white and black shirt, he has authority of the game. Man, they need to stay out of it — that’s my key — and let us dominate.”

Thomas also pointed to special teams and the fact the Seahawks weren’t disciplined, but he also said, “We’ve got to understand who we’re battling now. We won everything last year. We’re battling the referees now. I don’t know what’s going on with that. We’ve got to cut out the penalties. That’s what’s hurting us.”

Dean Blandino, the NFL’s vice president of officiating, tweeted an explanation of that final fumble:

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/10/19/nfl-week-7-stedman-bailey-st-louis-rams-punt-return-seattle-seahawks

w
v