happy birthday, mackeyser.

here’s another stat from football outsiders.

success rate. measures the running back’s consistency.

gio bernard ranks first with a success rate of 59%.

some others
devonta freeman – 54% 6th
le’veon bell – 50% 9th
jamaal charles – 48% 14th
melvin gordon – 48% 15th
todd gurley – 45% 24th
adrian peterson – 44% 26th
matt forte – 42% 28th

now having a high dvoa combined with a relatively low success rate means that the player is mixing explosive runs with a lot of stuffs. so the argument does hold some water. but still. i expect his success rate to go up as the oline continues to gel. interesting stuff.

zn wrote:

This of course does not factor in 3rd down with the qb in obvious passing situations.

But…. <strong class=”d4pbbc-bold”>FOLES: Passes over the middle

2013: 34 of 317 (10.7% of total attempts), 73.5% completions, 13.09 YPA, 154.7 qb rating

2014: 37 of 311 (11.9% of total attempts), 64.9% completions, 11.73 YPA, 141.0 qb rating

2015: 20 of 187 (10.7% of total attempts), 65.0% completions, 6.45 YPA, 101.9 qb rating

…

yeah. my gut instinct is it isn’t all foles. i am up and down on him. but when i have a level head. my instinct is that there’s many other factors out of his control. i mean we list them all the time.

new coordinator (who happens to be a rookie coordinator)
new system
quality of receivers
green oline

i’m probably missing others. i just want to see improvement at this point. something to give me hope next year that this passing offense will be something other than what it is right now. although the truth is. slight improvements here and there will add up to make enough of a difference to make this team a contender. i mean one year of experience for cignetti. one year to develop a relationship with his receivers. one year of this oline gelling. and one more year of experience for foles (and this isn’t exactly a grizzled veteran we’re talking about here). that could be enough to vault this team all the way to mediocrity. and honestly mediocrity is all they need considering how good the defense and the running game are.

wv wrote:

Well I’m not a hundred percent sure we can
extrapolate much from the last two games.
I mean, the Rams got out to a lead and
Fisher probly really trusted the defense
and running game to win the last two.

I’m not sure the same offensive-approach
and play-calling will stay in place
as the Rams face teams that can score
more points. I dunno.

Btw, you can ‘usually’ tell when Fisher thinks
he’s an underdog because he tries to steal
a possession with Hekker-Trickery.

w
v

that’s good point. i think we’re all getting perhaps a little more nervous than usual. this team seems close doesn’t it? with one of the few weaknesses being the passing game. so maybe it’s causing people to overanalyze foles and the receivers.

i think the team is actually good enough to make the playoffs without a competent passing game. shoot. if the rams could get their ypa up a yard. and get their total yardage to around the low 20s or high teens. they’d be in contention to go to the superbowl. probably won’t happen this year though. hopefully, next year.

i thought i’d put this post here because the football outsiders guy comments on how gurley has been getting stuffed a lot. and then over at the herd. there was some post about how balzer said gurley was 3 yards and a cloud of dust combined with the occasional long rip which inflated his stats. and while that may be true, i think it’s slightly exaggerated. i’d put him at about middle of the road in terms of getting consistent yards, and it’s definitely something he needs to improve on. he gets stuffed a lot. but he’s way more than just the long runs he gets.

i think freeman is one of the most consistent running backs in terms of churning out positive yards every carry. so i took his yards and subtracted the longest run from each game and calculated his yards per carry. i did the same with gurley – one including all 5 games and one including just his first four starts.

devonta freeman
571 yards 144 carries 3.97 yards per carry

todd gurley (5 games)
345 yards 89 carries 3.88 yards per carry

todd gurley (4 starts)
340 yards 84 carries 4.05 yards per carry

so again. he’s way more than just the insanely long run he pulls off once per game. shoot if you took those 4 starts without the long runs. he’s still having a heck of a rookie season! i mean people gotta realize he averages 6.1 yards per carry. there’s no one else averaging over 5 yards a carry until you get to the 15th ranked rusher gio bernard!

i know this isn’t the most sophisticated analysis. but my only point is this is one of the most impressive first four starts ever. especially when you consider he’s less than a year removed from acl surgery. and he’s doing it with no passing offense to speak of. now notice i said start. he’s still got 9 games to go. it means nothing if he falters after this. and he’s got a whole nfl career ahead of him. so in the grand scheme of things this means nothing. but i’m hopeful. that this is all real. because if it is, we’re all in for a treat, guys!

just thinking about greg robinson right now. i’m thinking his third year is the target year to see a breakout year. just given how raw he is. and the nature of the left tackle position. i still think he’s going to end up being a great pick there. just needs time.

i agree on barron, dak. what a find. especially with ogletree out. he’s like all over the field it seems. pass defense. run defense. pass rush. he’s a big dude.

also want to add this.

seattle in the 2 years they made it to the superbowl the passing offense ranked a remarkable 26th and 27th in the league. so the rams rank 31st this year. i think a rise in the rankings to the low 20s would be enough. high teens would be even better. but it’s not such a gap as one would think.

the main thing they need to do??? they need to get better on third downs!!! they absolutely stink on third downs. so what does that mean? does the offense lack confidence? i don’t know. but i hope cigs can figure it out.

they definitely need a third guy to complement the gurley austin duo. it shoulda been cook but it’s apparent that’s not going to happen.

and cignetti is still learning. never been an nfl coordinator before. perhaps fisher was a bit short sighted putting so much inexperience on the table with the oc and the oline.

thinking about it more and more. while foles is definitely limited there’s definitely other factors coming into play. but i want to see progress. if i can get that then next year becomes even bigger. as it is i think the rams can still make the playoffs this year.

there was one play in particular against the browns where he looked inside. the linebacker must have seen it cuz he moved over to clog the running lane. as soon as he committed, gurley cut back outside. just has this understanding of how to set up his blockers.

what strikes me the most is there’s no stop or start to him. he just kind of glides along until he decides to cut and then he just explodes through the hole. his cutting is very subtle like you say.

but he also has the power and lower body strength to shed tacklers when he needs to. his stiff arm is already very effective. i’ve seen him shed defensive linemen. and he’s already forcing defenses to gang tackle him. constantly churning his legs and gaining yards that aren’t even there.

he really is quickly becoming one of my favorite players of all time. he’s got it all. speed. quickness. brute strength. but also a graceful, elegant, and even subtle running style. he’s got immense power. preternatural vision. he’s smart. he’s also got this knack for making plays when the offense needs him to.

i always end up comparing him to the last two rams running backs of note. faulk and jackson. he’s got the strength and speed of jackson. but more importantly he’s got the vision and intelligence of marshall faulk.

but then yeah. there’s another element to him that i just can’t really pinpoint. he’s a special guy.

• This reply was modified 9 years ago by InvaderRam.

oh. they must have their stats updated. i was looking at espn stats which don’t include this week.

another thing. i don’t think the offense can just count on explosive plays from gurley and austin. and they sure as hell can’t rely on jared cook. they still haven’t produced the sustained drives i’ve been waiting to see. what were they? 1-8 on third downs? that’s not gonna cut it. that’s another thing that worries me.

yeah. in the past, you could see this defense. this team. having a letdown.

we’ll see how much they’ve learned. i’m banking that they’ve learned some things from last year.

but i could see that game also going the way of the washington game earlier this year. let’s hope that doesn’t happen. i do think this defense is more vulnerable to a great running back than a great quarterback. peterson has burned this defense a lot in the past. they did ok against bell this year, but it was his first game back from suspension.

then again. the rams didn’t have todd gurley. hopefully, he can do his part and keep the rams d off the field and fresh.

one other thing. on that 71 yard td today. i think most running backs run right. gurley sees the safety coming up anticipating a gurley going right. at the same time he sees the hole getting bigger to the left. cuts just as the safety commits. the safety realizes this and tries to cut back but slips. that kind of vision to me is extraordinary. he takes what most running backs would have taken for a 10-15 yard gain for a touchdown. untouched.

not sure. but he’s regressed since his rookie year. 3 total touches this season.

makes me that much happier they drafted austin. looking back on that draft. not sure there was a better pick for the rams.

wv wrote:

“Rams opponents have made 16 redzone trips in 2015, and have come away with only five touchdowns. They have settled for 11 field goals, best total in the NFL.
According to press box statistics, S Mark Barron led the team in tackles with nine (six solo)…”

Seems to me, aside from Gurley,
‘this’ is the story of the year — the redzone D.

I think most of us are just ‘expecting’ opposing
offenses to bog down in the redzone nowadays.
They dont seem to be giving up any big
plays in the redzone. Janoris is playing well.
Barron is playing well. Greg Williams seems to have
figured out how what to do with them. Etc.

w
v

and what’s really crazy about that is they’ve done it against high caliber quarterbacks. in some cases, even hall of fame caliber quarterbacks.

i think they have to. like i said on the gameday chat i prefer that it be through free agency. someone who can step in right away. obviously things will change between now and then, but there are guys like sanu and jeffery due for free agency next year. doesn’t even have to be someone of the caliber of a jeffery. just someone who is consistent.