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I like using Sportac. Here is why. Overthecap has us as being about 500k over the cap. The NFL would penalize us if that were true. I am posting the differences in the two sites. It mostly comes from Sportac giving the Rams more credit for rollover from last year. It also seems that Sportac is a bit more up to date, because they have our 10th practice squad member figured in.
I miss Jim Thomas on this. He also had the best numbers.
AgamemnonI’ve been using the argument which I got from an analysis I read that winning teams tend to have their top contract guys taking up 60% of the cap.
I used spotrac and looked at the 2019 cap. Right now before signing or extending anyone else, their top 10 contract guys are Donald, Whitworth, Cooks, Brockers, Gurley, Peters, Barron, Goff, Havenstein, and Talib. The lowest of those is 8 M.
Rounding the numbers just a bit, that comes to 111.5 M.
The 2019 cap is estimated to be 187 M. 60% of that would be 112.2.
So as it stands right now, for 2019, the Rams top 10 contracts come to 59.6% of the cap. (They have 37+ M in cap space in 2019.)
That has to change by 2021, when Goff’s new deal hits the books. By then I assume that not all of the 10 listed above will be there. I assume it will be Goff, Donald, Cooks, Gurley and Peters. That won’t allow 10 so their top 60% will have to be more like 8 or 9. I listed 5. That presumably leaves room for 3 or 4 more.
I assume both Barron and Whitworth will be gone by then.
I didn’t list Brockers because he is a FA in 2020 and by then will be going into his 9th year…2021 would be his 10th year. I think they can find another 5-tech 3/4 DE.
I didn’t list Hav because I think by 2021 they will find a less expensive alternative at ROT. It saves them 7+ M to replace Hav by then.
I didn’t list Talib because he’s a FA after 2019.
Looked at that way, by 2021, the major replacements have to be CB, ILB, NT, DE, LOT, ROT. Not all of those will be big contract guys, in fact most will be young. They may already have 2 or 3 of them.
That is pretty much what I think. I my own salary cap model here about 2 years ago. That was before there was much out there.
top tier 10-12 [your best players.] 72.0% ~111.8M for 2016 [ Upper Limit ]
middle tier 12-14 [the rest of the starters.] 14.0% ~21.7M for 2016 [ Lower Limit ]bottom tier 36 [includes IR.] 14.0% ~21.7M for 2016 [ Lower Limit ]
36 players would make an average of $0.6 million/year.That stuff is the maximum. If you made the top of your roster as full of high priced players as you could. And you had the most cheap young players possible.
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10 players at 60% is a good practical number.link: http://theramshuddle.com/topic/one-kind-of-roster-model/
AgamemnonThat stuff is the maximum. If you made the top of your roster as full of high priced players as you could. And you had the most cheap young players possible.
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10 players at 60% is a good practical number.Just guesstimating about 2021. If by then Goff were 30 M, Donald 28 M (all rounded numbers to make math simpler), Cooks 17 M, Gurley 13 M, and Peters 17 M… that’s 105 M…. with a cap of 220 M that gives you 132 M for 60%… the remaining 27 M allows for 2-3 more players? Which is less than I originally said. Before I said 8-9 total for 60%, now it’s 7-8.
They can always move some money around and Goff and Peters, their contracts aren’t written yet.
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If a cheap QB is the key to a superior roster, maybe they should draft another one. 😉
2021, all bets might be off. We will have a new CBA and probably a new salary cap. AgamemnonHow can Peters be on that list when he is still on his rookie deal?
Speculation on what things will look like in 2021, after Peters is signed. zn is guessing he will get $17M/yr on a new deal.
AgamemnonViewing: 2020 Cap = ~$200M
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Aaron Donald DE $25,000,000 12.50%
Todd Gurley RB $17,250,000 8.63%
Brandin Cooks WR $16,800,000 8.40%
Mark Barron ILB $9,000,000 4.50%
Rob Havenstein RT $7,800,000 3.90%
Robert Woods WR $7,177,504 3.59%Jared Goff QB $26,000,000 13.00%
Marcus Peters CB $15,000,000 7.50%
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57.49% x $200M = ~$115M
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2020, the year we move into the new stadium. I am guessing Barron is probably gone. Agamemnonthe important thing is that the rams will need to draft well in order to sustain success. gonna need some cheap but talented players.
stating the obvious i know.
One thing is that we can reasonably expect them to be picking low in the 1st round. I expect this crew to NAIL low 1st rounders. Thing about those guys is, they avg. around 2.3 M to 2.7 M or so a year. That puts them in the 40%, not the 60% that goes to the high contracts. By 2021 they will have had 3 1st round picks.
Another encouraging thing is that since 2012 the Rams have been absolutely golden with 3rd round picks. If anything it got even better since 2017. They have 3 3rd rounders and scored way beyond normal expectations on all 3 of them (Kupp, Johnson–who gets praise from Talib and Peters–and Noteboom, who at a minimum is a guard or right OT).
Well in 2019 they have 3 3rd round picks.
So there’s reason to be fairly confident on that front.
Plus look at the “reanimated castoffs” (RCs) the team makes good use of in various roles. Sullivan, Ramik Wilson, Easley, Blythe. The odd here and there guy like that. I trust these coaches to find a few of those in the next 3 years.
And UDFAs.
You can populate a team with a nice lower middle class using all that, and if you also have Goff (and I assume he keeps improving), Gurley, and Cooks, you have the basis of a good offense, and a defense with both Donald and Peters is always going to be promising.
So that’s the Candy Mountain, homer high on crack take.
This shows the Rams having 13 players in the top 65.6%. Of course, this will change in future years, since they extended Gurley, Cooks, and Donald.
Check out the link to see how other teams and other situations make up the roster with various levels of compensation.link: https://overthecap.com/texture/
Agamemnon
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