Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › are the Rams a playoff team?
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zn.
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October 8, 2016 at 9:39 am #54741
znModeratorfrom Ranking six teams that missed NFL playoffs last year and chances to make it in 2017
6. Los Angeles Rams
We may live to regret this ranking as the Rams don’t play another team that currently has a winning record until they meet the New England Patriots in Week 13, but they are still the team in this group that seems most like a mirage.
They’ve have arrived at their 3-1 record despite having been outscored by 13 points so far this season; that record includes a 28-0 loss to the 49ers in Week 1, which they followed up with one-score wins over the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Cardinals. Point differential is generally a better indicator of future success than actual won-loss record, and blowouts also tend to be a better indicator of true team quality than close wins or losses because a team’s record in one-score game tends to regress toward .500 over time. (The Rams themselves went 5-4 in one-score games last season and 3-4 the season before that.) Both of those factors point toward a regression in record over the next 12 games for the Rams.
We also have to consider that the Rams currently rank 32nd in yards per game, 30th in points per game, and 31st in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which adjusts performance for down, distance, and opponent). There hasn’t been a single team since the league expanded to 32 teams to make the playoffs with a bottom-three ranking in offensive DVOA.
Considering the Rams are unlikely to get above-average quarterback play at any time this season, that their offensive line has been among the league’s worst units in both pass-blocking and run-blocking, and that they are generally bereft of playmakers beyond Todd Gurley, they do not exactly strike one as the kind of team that is about to make a jump out of the offensive basement.
Add to all that a defense that has so far been good but not great (23rd in yards allowed, ninth in points per game allowed, 12th in defensive DVOA) and you have a team that is seemingly just waiting to fade out of the playoff picture.
October 8, 2016 at 10:30 am #54744
nittany ramModeratorThere is some good info in that article about point differential as a predictor of team success and the DVOA. However, the article is predicated on the idea that the Rams offense won’t improve. Keenum is certainly flawed but his play has been trending upwards. How good does he have to be? I think if he can play close to like he did against the Cards going forward that would be sufficient. If they can ever jump start the running game (by no means a given) then the Rams’ offense certainly should be good enough for a playoff run.
October 8, 2016 at 1:46 pm #54760
JackPMillerParticipantNope. We still have ways to go.
October 8, 2016 at 3:30 pm #54770
bnwBlockedI’m doubtful but hopeful.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
October 8, 2016 at 4:40 pm #54793
AgamemnonParticipantAny team above .500 has a chance.
AgamemnonOctober 8, 2016 at 4:57 pm #54797
sanbaggerParticipantThat’s a good article…and have to say, I agree.
Right now, I don’t think they’re a playoff team. The D is ready the O isn’t.
I will addd…Read an article about how Groh has changed the passing attack more than I thought. CK was talking about the changes to protections and hot reads is leading to him thinking more than just playing (paraphrasing)…so, I would expect the O to be a little better each week as they get more accustomed.
October 8, 2016 at 5:12 pm #54802znModeratorCK was talking about the changes to protections and hot reads is leading to him thinking more than just playing (paraphrasing)…so, I would expect the O to be a little better each week as they get more accustomed.
I had the exact same thoughts, frankly. They were a little out of sync early in ways that looked like the times they were out of sync because of transitions to new offenses (2009, 2011, 2012).
October 8, 2016 at 5:43 pm #54805sanbaggerParticipantCK was talking about the changes to protections and hot reads is leading to him thinking more than just playing (paraphrasing)…so, I would expect the O to be a little better each week as they get more accustomed.
I had the exact same thoughts, frankly. They were a little out of sync early in ways that looked like the times they were out of sync because of transitions to new offenses (2009, 2011, 2012).
IMO, That’s got to be effecting the O-line. It’s basically the same line as last year and now they can’t block anybody….somethings got to be going on with regards to protections and assignments.
I was never a big fan of Barnes at Center, but in pre-season while playing Vanilla he’s a stud and now he can’t block…something is up IMO.
October 8, 2016 at 6:30 pm #54808
InvaderRamModeratorbut that can’t affect the run blocking can it?
that’s the bigger concern to me.
October 8, 2016 at 6:32 pm #54810znModeratorbut that can’t affect the run blocking can it?
that’s the bigger concern to me.
Sure. Timing, communication, precision. If you;re thinking rather than reacting it throws things off.
October 8, 2016 at 6:34 pm #54811InvaderRamModeratorbut that can’t affect the run blocking can it?
that’s the bigger concern to me.
Sure. Timing, communication, precision. If you;re thinking rather than reacting it throws things off.
but the talk was about changing protections and hot reads.
unless they changed the run blocking schemes as well.
October 8, 2016 at 6:43 pm #54813sanbaggerParticipantbut that can’t affect the run blocking can it?
that’s the bigger concern to me.
Sure. Timing, communication, precision. If you;re thinking rather than reacting it throws things off.
but the talk was about changing protections and hot reads.
unless they changed the run blocking schemes as well.
That’s a good point.
I think the changes have had an effect on the entire O-line across the board. It’s the only explanation I can think of that explains why the O-line is so bad this year.
It’s either that or the D knows when the good guys are going to run it. I admit, I noticed every time the lined up an extra back in the backfield I knew it was a run.
October 8, 2016 at 6:54 pm #54814
wvParticipantyes
w
vOctober 8, 2016 at 6:55 pm #54815InvaderRamModeratorIt’s either that or the D knows when the good guys are going to run it. I admit, I noticed every time the lined up an extra back in the backfield I knew it was a run.
i think there might be something too that.
i also think the coaches are going over that. seeing if they’re giving away some tell to the defense whether it’s a run or a pass.
October 8, 2016 at 7:15 pm #54817znModeratorbut the talk was about changing protections and hot reads.
unless they changed the run blocking schemes as well.
Remember that talk came from Keenum, which was all directly related to the qb.
I doubt they changed only what the qb does.
It’s just that Keenum didn’t discuss anything past what he does.
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