The Athletic staff unanimously picks the Rams to win….
We know that isn’t how it works for Ben Johnson and the Bears. We know that. This is the NFL, and Chicago obviously has a game plan coming into every contest. But knowing and feeling are two different things, and boy, it feels like the Bears are performing free jazz up until the fourth quarter. With their impossible comeback win over Green Bay, Chicago has now won seven games in which they were trailing in the final two minutes, two more than any team has pulled off in a single season (playoffs included) in the Super Bowl era.
But the Packers, while talented, are not the Rams. Los Angeles is a far more efficient offensive machine and isn’t dealing with the gut punch of losing their core defensive player. It’s tempting to point to the wild-card game against Carolina as proof of L.A.’s fallibility, but consider this: Abraham Nunez batted .242 for his career, but hit .429 off Greg Maddux the 30 times he faced him. Weird stuff happens, and sometimes mediocre talent finds the magic against a particular opponent.
The Bears are at home, and their two losses at Soldier Field were by three points, so in that sense, the Rams being favored by 3.5 points has a certain logic to it. But in every other sense, this spread seems awfully conservative. A quick rundown of the Rams’ advantages:
The deep ball
The Bears allowed the second-most touchdowns and second-most yards per game on deep passes (20-plus air yards) this season, and only the Cowboys gave up more touchdowns on passes that went 10 or more yards in the air.
Matt Stafford completed more deep passes than any quarterback in the league, throwing an NFL-best 10 touchdowns and one interception. On passes over 10 yards, he had the most touchdowns (19), most yards (2,568) and threw just three picks. His EPA on throws over 10 yards is an astounding (and league-leading) +138.6.
Play action
Chicago has allowed more touchdowns off play action than anyone but the Jets, and surrendered the fifth-most yards per game to it this year.
Play action is the lifeblood of the Rams’ offense, and they are devastatingly good at it. L.A. runs play action more than any other team, averaging more than 100 yards and a touchdown per game. No one comes close to Stafford, who has thrown 20 touchdowns and one pick, six more scores than the next-closest quarterback.
The ground game
There’s no doubt the Bears can run the ball, but the problem for them is the Rams can, too. The bigger problem is that Chicago’s defense is worse at stopping the run than L.A.’s is. The biggest problem is that the Bears are really bad at stopping the types of runs the Rams are great at. Los Angeles is seventh in EPA per rush outside the tackles; Chicago’s defense is 29th. The Rams’ Blake Corum and Kyren Williams are first and third in rushing success rate on runs from under center; the Bears are 24th against under-center runs. It’s not that Chicago can’t run on the Rams; it’s that the Rams can run right back.
Fourth-quarter magic
The Bears have been heroic in the last 15 minutes of games. Through last week, they have 20 fourth-quarter touchdowns (second), average +.11 EPA per play (second) and are first in yards per play (5.9). Impossibly, the Rams have the exact same numbers. The two teams are tied in each one of those fourth-quarter stats.
Defensively, the Rams outshine Chicago considerably in the final frame. L.A. has the most fourth-quarter QB pressures, the third-most sacks, and allows the seventh-stingiest EPA per play.
Caleb Williams and his pixie dust represent Chicago’s only true edge in the game, as the Rams are bad against quarterback scrambles and among the worst at surrendering passing yards when they blitz. The second-year QB is tremendous at both of those things, and his ability to execute near-impossible throws can make up a lot of lost ground in a hurry. Still, there’s only so much you can do in 120 seconds, and the first 58 minutes against the Rams could make the final two irrelevant.
