And yet there are people who think Austin Davis has reached his ceiling. That he cannot improve.

That’s because, TD, different people look at this differently, and therefore compare their different views.

Why is it possible to imagine that he will not improve? Because the VAST majority of qbs drafted after round 3 don’t…no matter how well they started out. That’s just the nature of the league. I can’t do the numbers on UDFAs, but I just did the numbers on qbs drafted after round 3 from 2003-2012, and of all the qbs taken, only 4% ever even ended up becoming consistent journeymen types (it’s Orton, Cassel, and Fitzpatrick). Does the occassional Warner or Bulger or Trent Green come along? Sure, but it’s rare. Like..VERY rare.

And it’s not just that realistic odds are against him. I see him as declining in how he plays, so that any statistical averages mashing the earlier games in with the recent games strike me as hiding more than they reveal. I think AVERAGE season numbers on him disguise the fact that RECENT numbers on him are very bad.

And most importantly, my skepticism is based on what I see in his play. He has me very much doubting him. There are a set of “either he has it or he doesn’t” characteristics I look for in qbs, and he is starting to look like he has a list of “doesn’t”s.

And. You approach the whole thing differently. You see and count different things. Cool.

So we create neutral zones like this where different opinions are welcome and the fact that people see it entirely differently is just part of good discussion.

I think this gets down to confidence again.

Davis made a couple of huge mistakes in the SF game, but the Rams didn’t fold this time like they did with huge mistakes by other players against other teams. That’s IMO because the team believes it’s always “in it” with a West opponent.

aeneas1

here’s a look at the rams td from last weekend…

davis does a heckuva job keeping his composure and delivering a strike to britt on the crossing route as justin smith stunted through the middle virtually untouched. it was another one of those niners defensive plays, this time wilhoite crashed down on grob’s blindside in an effort to create a rush lane for smith. saffold followed wilhoite, looks like saffold may have even shoved wilhoite to the ground, leaving the middle wide open for smith to come barreling through, hard to tell if benny was supposed to hang back a bit and help out with pass pro, or a chip at least. speaking of benny, he was wide open as well. anyway, great pitch and catch for a score!

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here are a few highlights of grob’s play vs the niners, the guy is a beast!

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and here’s a look at a type of defensive play the niners love to run, crash down on an offensive lineman’s blindside in an effort to create a rush lane for a stunting defender. in this case justin smith, who is lined up on saffold’s inside shoulder, crashes down on grob’s blindside at the snap of the ball, while brooks stunts inside, who wells was ready to pick up:

jrry32

I have done this for Bradford in the past and I’ve found that some like it, some don’t. Regardless, I’m going to give you my opinion and break things down to the best of my abilities. You don’t have to agree with my conclusions, please, just keep it respectful. I had expressed the opinion that I believed San Francisco’s defense had not played all that well against us and that I felt Austin Davis had just really struggled but that I would check to see if it could be confirmed on Coach’s Film. I did just that and unfortunately, it was confirmed.(in my mind)

This is first and 10 just outside the 20 on a drive that ultimately ends in a FG. A completion here is important because it sets us up with manageable 2nd and 3rd downs. On this play, Austin Davis has a choice to make. The linebacker circled is more or less the guy he’s going to read. If the LB crashes down on the drag route with Kendricks, Davis should throw it to Cook down the seam inside of the safety. If the linebacker drops underneath Cook, Davis should hit Kendricks with the cross for a solid gain. Unfortunately, Davis takes too long to make his decision. If he’s going to hit Kendricks, the ball needs to be out now. If he’s going to hit Cook, he can take his hitch step(which he does) and throw it down the seam. Instead, he takes his hitch step and tries to throw to Kendricks. It’s late and the defender is able to defend the pass.

This is the same drive as the first picture but it is now 3rd down and 10. Brian Schottenheimer calls up a brilliant play. They may or many not have flagged us for OPI…that’s up in the air but Stedman Bailey(IIRC) is wide open over the middle because the 49ers brought the house. Davis, though, panics and runs himself right into pressure. The free blitzer was coming off the right side. Cunningham actually does a great job of picking up the blitzer on the left side. Davis has the time to stand tall in the pocket and hit a wide open Bailey over the middle. Instead, he flushes out of the pocket too early and is forced to throw the ball away. This is what you have to do to stop teams from blitzing. You stand tall and deliver the pass over the middle to the open WR. If you bail on the pocket, they’re going to keep coming.

This is the interception that Davis threw that led to the 49ers TD. Here’s the frustrating thing, Britt was WIDE OPEN the entire time. He ran a crossing route from the opposite side of the field and nobody covered him. Davis locked onto Austin and never looked Britt’s way. But even getting past that, he still could have completed the pass. Here’s the issue, he has to throw the ball now if he is going to throw the comeback route here. Austin is making his break and Bethea isn’t in position to undercut it. However, Davis holds the ball far too long, Bethea drops back to undercut the route and Davis throws it right to him.

Davis’s second interception of the day. Kenny Britt is behind the defender. Davis actually does a great job of escaping the pressure on this play and extending the play. Unfortunately, he makes the right read but throws a duck. The ball comes up 5-7 yards short of Britt and ends up right in the DB’s hands. Britt scores easily if Davis gets the ball there on this pass.

This is probably my most questionable play in that it’s a tad nitpicky. As you see here, Kenny Britt has gotten behind the CB and Davis actually has a nice pocket to work in. The safety is playing Britt so Davis is going to have to throw this ball towards the sideline or else there’s a risk that Bethea can make a play on it. Still, I think it’s a risk he should have taken. I wonder if the two earlier interceptions made him a bit gun shy. Instead, Davis tries to take off and runs himself into a sack(this was a 3rd down play)

Here’s another third down play(3rd and 11) that did not get completed. Davis does a nice job of escaping the blitz which gets sealed inside by the OL. However, he’s completely indecisive once he gets out of the pocket. He has a choice here, he can either hit Britt down the field(Britt will work his way back to the ball) or he can drop it off short to Cook and see if Cook can pick up the first with YAC. I would have dropped it off to Cook because it’s a safer play and I think Cook can get to the first on this play. However, Davis inexplicably doesn’t pull the trigger on either one. Instead, he holds onto the ball until he is forced to throw it away.

Here’s my final play and the Rams final offensive play of the game(not counting the kneel down). It’s 3rd down again. This time, the 49ers bring heavy blitz off the right side of the OL but they also fall for our play-action. Kendricks is left completely uncovered and the 49ers have nobody back to stop him from scoring. However, Davis panics when he sees the blitz and does the worst thing possible. He rolls right into the blitz. He has 3 blockers to pick up the 3 blitzers on that side of the OL. If he stays where he is, he has ample time to get the ball to Kendricks. Or if he’s worried, he can slide to his right and the OL will have enough blockers to account for the blitzers. I don’t know if he misread it or what but instead, he flushes out of the pocket to his right which is exactly where the blitzers are going. He is forced to throw it away.

Don’t take this as meaning Davis didn’t do anything well in this game. He simply made a lot of mistakes. The 49ers defense made some huge mistakes in this game and Davis just didn’t capitalize on them well. I’m really concerned at his tendency to panic and flush when blitzed. The 49ers gave us multiple opportunities to punish them on blitzes and Davis just didn’t do an effective job of capitalizing.

from off the net

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jrry32

Here’s Tavon “stepping out of bounds”:

Here’s the supposed “block in the back”:

Bates is clearly to the side of the defender.

(Can’t take credit for the pictures…they aren’t mine)

alyoshamucci

So, we beat the Niners 2 weeks after beating the Seahawks. To be perfectly honest I can almost be satisfied with this entire year as a result of those wins. Im pretty easy to please though.

At 3-5 we’d have to get some luck to think about long shot-playoff stuff . . . but if we beat the Cardinals Im down to start doing the math. We were right there with 2 playoff teams (Eagles and Cowboys) and could easily be 5-3 right now . . but . . we’re not so I’m not looking into it too hard.

The Great

1) 8 SACKS. The D line showed up like they should have at the beginning of the year. I’m not sure if they are getting the scheme or just getting more confident or what. I don’t care either, they just need to keep it up.

2) Gaines’ defended pass deserves its own section. He turned his head, kept his speed, no PI, and batted a ball at a pivotal moment. He beat out Tru in that moment.

The Good

3) Greg Robinson. If I’m not mistaken the blitzing LB “Skuta” was all up in our business the first go round. Not this time. He needs to get more comfy out there, but it really seems like his “weakness to the inside move” isn’t that much of a weakness because he simply has crazy long arms and can redirect quickly enough to slow the pressure even if the guy gets a step on him. He looks like Pace. Also . . can he play both ways? Love to have him at MLB.

4) Picking a horse. Mason got the bulk of the carries and I’m a huge fan of that. Bring in Benny situationally and let Mason get his rips at the defense. He’s going to bust one soon. Its time.

5) Austin Davis recovering from TWO first quarter INTs. Fortitude. He didn’t have his best game, but he didn’t let that stop us.

6) GZ 2/2, even if they were ugly.

7) Run defense. Really I’ve been impressed for the last 4-5 games. Bobby Rainey went off on us, as did Demarco, but we’ve been frustrating runners.

8) Goal line stand.

9) 3rd Down defense.

The Bad

10) I am not happy with the lack of 3-4 creative Austin plays every week. There are ways to design getting someone the ball in space. I have been happy with Schotty’s work of late (particularly the Britt TD route), he just needs to commit himself to 3-4 plays a week for Austin.

11) Um, so . . . Zac Stacy is . . what? Has he been in since his fumble? Is there some issue that is not being made public? I would expect a couple carries or snaps to keep him warm, even if the split is 15/3/3.

12) Dropped INTs. C’mon guys. Joyner, I understand you have abs, so wear a cushion on your belly in case it happens again.

The Ugly

13) Tru’s PI. This is unacceptable in that situation. You’ve been playing football forever. You just lost your starting gig from my perspective.

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The Draft

DE, LB and RB this year are the best I’ve seen. Replacing Hayes this draft should be a priority because the value will be there. Don’t have anything against Hayes. He’s a great rotational player. He’s just over 30 and the draft is sooooo strong at DE that it’s irresponsible not to draft one in the top 3-4 rounds. I have my eye on like 15 guys.Unfortunately we don’t need a RB, but we may as well grab one in the 6th or something. The OLB position could be filled in m any different ways as there are many different types of really athletic players. I would expect a run on LBs from the 20-75 area. I have my favorites of course, but there are so many Id rather wait until after I watch them run in shorts. Ive seen them play enough football.
TE is notably slow and weak this year. CB has no top end talent, but a couple of promising mid-grade type guys. I wouldn’t put a top 20 grade on any CB.
Interior linemen looks strong this year too. Through round 4 we could plug that hole at OG, but if we want to replace wells I’m going to pitch for Grasu the rest of the year.