Kenny Britt up, D-line and Jeff Fisher down in Rams’ loss

Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/23342/kenny-britt-up-defensive-line-jeff-fisher-down-in-rams-loss

MINNEAPOLIS — A look at St. Louis Rams players who were “up” and those who were “down” in Sunday’s 21-18 loss against the Minnesota Vikings:

UP

Tavon Austin: Austin had an important miscue in the second half when he dropped a deep ball that could have gone for a big gain, though it was underthrown. But he also was one of only two guys keeping the Rams in it in the first half. He finished with eight carries for 66 yards and four catches for 15 more yards, one of the few consistent sources of production for the offense.

Kenny Britt: The other player who was able to produce, he finished with three catches for 87 yards, including a 55-yard grab to jump-start the offense in the second half. Britt was also wide open on the game’s first offensive play but his quarterback didn’t throw it to him. The Rams need more from all of their receivers, but at least Austin and Britt showed up against the Vikings.

DOWN

Nick Foles: It should tell you all you need to know about what Minnesota thinks of Foles’ ability to win a game that they took the wind instead of the ball to open overtime. Likewise, the Rams had no intention of throwing the ball down the field until third down of their lone overtime possession, and by then it was third-and-16. Foles also didn’t let it fly to Britt on the game’s first play for a potential touchdown. He didn’t turn it over, which is a positive, but he mostly struggled to offer the Rams some much-needed offensive variety to help open things up for running back Todd Gurley.

The defensive line: Even without starting ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn, the Rams line has the depth to make a difference but was mostly quiet for the day. They struggled to generate pressure and didn’t get to Teddy Bridgewater for a sack before he left with an injury. Worse, they were the main culprits of another penalty-plagued game. The Rams had 12 penalties for 87 yards, including five neutral-zone infractions on their front four.

Jeff Fisher: After the game, Fisher said he went for an early two-point conversion because “we were going to need as many scoring opportunities as we possibly can. Also, it’s indicative of how the wind was.” Well, the conversion failed and the Rams lost the game in overtime, but the explanation also didn’t make much sense considering that points were at a premium and kicker Greg Zuerlein said afterward that he felt comfortable kicking into the wind from 45 to 48 yards during warm-ups. Combine decisions like that with the penalty issue that perpetually plagues Fisher’s teams, and he lands here.

If it were last year’s numbers this year….

There would be 6 drops by WRs/TEs not 10.

60.8% of passes would be caught not 53.5%.

Mighta made some difference on some 3rd downs, leading to more opportunities.

In fact if they had last year’s third down conversion rate this year, it would be 35.42% instead of 25.88%. Which while still low, is at least not dead last (like this year). (25.88%, btw, is the lowest 3rd down conversion rate since Arizona in 2012 and before that, Buffalo in 2009).

And personally I don’t think it’s just Foles. Nor do I think it’s just the receivers. I think a lot of it is the Baby OL. My bet is there’s certain things they’re not even trying with this OL, until it stabilizes. So that alone cuts down on what they do.

Rams at Vikings: Seven for Sunday

Jim Thomas

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/rams-at-vikings-seven-for-sunday/article_2dfaa837-7162-5d6b-8f4d-6a5a585177ce.html

Both teams have defensive-oriented head coaches: Jeff Fisher of the Rams and Mike Zimmer of the Vikings. Both teams are built on strong running games with marquee backs: Adrian Peterson of Minnesota and Todd Gurley of St. Louis. Both teams have top 10 defenses: The Rams are sixth in total defense; the Vikings seventh. Neither team does much with the forward pass, with the Rams ranked 32nd and the Vikings 30th in passing offense. And both are trying to work their way into the NFC playoff picture.

FLAG FOOTBALL

In what figures to be a close game, the team that makes the fewest mistakes could come out the winner. And if that’s the case, give the edge to Minnesota — at least in the area of penalties. Minnesota is the NFL’s least-penalized team this season, both in terms of penalties assessed (39) and penalty yards (340). Zimmer’s squad was among the league’s least-penalized teams last year as well. Although the Rams are doing better in this area this year, they have totaled 21 penalties for 168 yards the past two Sundays.THE GREAT APPeterson logged his third 100-yard rushing game of the season last week in Chicago, and is well on his way to a 1,500-yard season at age 30. Matt Asiata frequently replaces Peterson on third down, and Jerick McKinnon occasionally will spell him in the base offense. But Peterson remains the man who makes the Minnesota offense run; he’s still a big play waiting to happen. Realistically speaking, the Rams hope to contain him; they’re not going to shut him down.

TEDDY’S TIME

So far, QB Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t made that second-year leap as was hoped for by the Vikings. In fact, his statistics are very similar to what he posted last year as a rookie. He doesn’t have ideal arm strength, but is very accurate. He is poised and patient in the pocket, far beyond his experience level in the NFL. He’s not big on scrambling, but is effective when using his legs. More caretaker than playmaker at this point, Bridgewater might have gained confidence with his fourth-quarter comeback vs. Chicago.

DIGGS EMERGES

Speedster Mike Wallace leads the Vikings with 26 catches, but is averaging only 11.2 yards per catch and hasn’t provided the big plays the team hoped for when they obtained him in a trade with Miami in March. Another speedster, Cordarrelle Patterson, has almost fallen off the depth chart with only two catches (for 10 yards) this season. But Stefon Diggs has saved the passing game. After being inactive for the first three games, he has 25 catches for 419 yards in four contests. He’s a polished route runner for a rookie.

PASS-RUSH TANDEM

Overall, the Vikings are in the middle of the road when it comes to rushing the passer. But they have an effective, if unheralded, tandem in DE Everson Griffen and DT Tom Johnson. Griffen and Johnson have combined for 25 sacks since the start of the 2014 season — that’s the fifth-highest total for an end-tackle tandem in the league over that span. The Rams’ duo of DE Robert Quinn and DT Aaron Donald is tied for second in that time period, with 29 sacks. Griffen has been playing with a painful neck injury.

LINEBACKER ISSUES

While the Rams are banged up at defensive end, the Vikings have health concerns at linebacker — the strongest unit on their squad. Middle ’backer Eric Kendricks, who’s tied for second on the team in tackles (50), second in sacks (four), and second in tackles for loss (six), is out because of injured ribs. Strong side LB Anthony Barr, another of the team’s top defenders, is questionable (back issue). In part because of the talent at linebacker, this is a fast-flowing defense.

For Rams to beat Vikings, the little things will make a difference

Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/23329/for-rams-to-beat-vikings-the-little-things-will-make-a-difference

EARTH CITY, Mo. — The St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings kick off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET from TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Here are three things to watch in what figures to be a closely matched game between two NFC contenders:

1. It’s always the turnovers: Look, it’s not breaking any sort of revelatory ground to say that turnovers are a key to the game. They’re a key to every game every week. But we’re going with the cliche here because this is one of those rare games when neither team has a clear advantage. The statistics show two evenly-matched teams. Even in something like red zone defense where you think the Rams might have a decided advantage because they are the best in the league, the Vikings aren’t far behind at fourth.

So even just a plus-one differential in the turnover margin could be the difference between winning and losing. The Rams have been a bit better than the Vikings at taking it away this year with 13 to Minnesota’s nine, but the Rams have given it away 10 times to the Vikings’ eight. All told, the Rams are plus-three and Minnesota is plus-one. It’s not a substantial difference but in a closely matched game, a fumble or an interception at the right time could make all the difference.

2. Getting their kicks: Here’s another small detail that might not seem like a big deal but could be here. Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein has had some rough moments the past few weeks and he’s just 9-of-15 on field goals for the season. Granted, many of those misses have been from 50-plus yards, but he’s also missed a 35-yard attempt and had another kick blocked last week.

And while Zuerlein has made all 14 of his extra-point attempts, he’s had a history of struggling outdoors. On the other side, Minnesota’s Blair Walsh has hit 17-of-19 on field goals but does have a pair of misses on extra points.

Both teams will need their kickers to be on point as a point or three could tip the scales the other direction.

3. An offensive evolution: It’s no secret that the Rams’ offense revolves primarily around running back Todd Gurley and, to a lesser extent, receiver Tavon Austin. Both can and should continue to be the focal points of the offense. But now that we’ve seen what that duo can do when used in tandem, there should be some opportunities for others to have some success, especially in the passing game.

The Rams played it coy this week when asked about what Gurley and Austin might loosen up, but one can logically point to the middle of the field as an option. The Rams are the second-least productive team in the NFL when it comes to throwing it between the hashes. That might mean some opportunities for tight ends like Jared Cook or Lance Kendricks or slot receiver Stedman Bailey.

No matter who it is, some production from a skill position player not named Gurley and Austin would go a long way in helping the Rams get to 5-3.

nittany ram wrote:

Yes, purple blood must be spilled.

wv wrote:

i suspect they are better with Barron than Ogletree.
Ogletree has good hands and is very dangerous,
but it also seems like he gets overly aggressive/reckless
sometimes. I dunno.

I like that Gordo article on Barron (post before this one).

On Ogletree. This is how I see it—Rams tend to draft very raw, very developmental guys, and we get to watch them mature. The only guy who wasn’t like that was Donald (well, and Gurley). Ogletree fit that picture.

Ogletree was drafted in 2013. This is his third year. He was starting to show a lot, and was learning the game. This doesn’t surprise me, because if they can get Jenkins to mature and play disciplined, high quality defense, they can get virtually anyone to do it.

Then AO goes out and Barron steps in. Barron is different from AO in a couple of respects—he spent time apprenticing the system, and wasn’t out there starting in a situation where we get to see all his growing pains. And he is a year more experienced. So Barron is in that crucial 4-7 year veteran phase. AO was just getting there.

In other respects they’re different versions of the same guy. Just that one’s a base LB and the other’s a base DB.

AND Alexander is coming along, too.

So I am just enjoying all of this.

IMO this defense IS better than 99. The DL is better, though the 99 DL was a good one. But in 99, except for London, I thought the back 7 was more average. This back 7 is loaded with exceptional players.

….

Rams look to erase memory of last time they played Vikings

Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/23285/rams-look-to-erase-memory-of-last-time-they-played-minnesota

EARTH CITY, Mo. — It’s been approximately a season and a half since the Minnesota Vikings walloped the St. Louis Rams on the opening day of the 2014 season.

Much has changed for both sides since the Vikings’ 34-6 shellacking of the Rams at the Edward Jones Dome. In football time, a season and a half is a long time, but a game like that isn’t easy to remove from the memory bank.

“You really just have that taste in your mouth that the last time you went up against him, they punched us right in the mouth out of the gate,” linebacker James Laurinaitis said. “I think it’s always good to go back and revisit those feelings because still when I watch the tape it gets under your skin a little bit.”

The Vikings went on to a mediocre season while the Rams actually dipped to 6-10, but neither made the playoffs. As they prepare for Sunday’s game at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, both teams are in much better positions. In fact, the 5-2 Vikings and 4-3 Rams are currently sitting in the sixth and seventh spots in the NFC playoff race. That means the loser would drop from that perch with the winner stepping into the last playoff spot with half a season to go.

So clearly there has been progress made on both sides, but that doesn’t mean the Rams haven’t taken a peek at a performance Laurinaitis called “embarrassing” earlier this week. In fact, defensive end William Hayes says there’s plenty to learn from revisiting such an atrocious effort.

“You can learn the things that you don’t need to do on the football field,” Hayes said. “It was bad football all phases. Minnesota has kind of had their way with us the past couple of years since I’ve been here so hopefully we can turn things around.”

Turning things around should be a task made easier by some of the many differences in both teams since that meeting. The Rams entered the game not knowing what to expect from the quarterback position as Shaun Hill had just stepped in for the injured Sam Bradford two weeks earlier. Hill then suffered an injury of his own in the first half and was replaced by Austin Davis.

The Rams defense that had such high hopes did a solid job against running back Adrian Peterson but couldn’t keep wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson from burning them with big plays. The Rams compounded their issues by committing 13 penalties for 121 yards.

“I just remember that overall they had too many explosive plays,” Laurinaitis said. “I don’t think we tackled very well. We made Patterson look untackleable. He took a toss from the backfield and did speed sweeps, they did everything against us.”

By the time it was over, the Vikings had outgained the Rams 355 to 318 and the Rams were minus-2 in turnover differential. The 28-point defeat tied the worst margin for a home opener in franchise history.

Hard to watch? Certainly. Important to revisit this week? Absolutely.

“Well, you look at it,” coach Jeff Fisher said. “It’s no different than for example, us playing a division game, the second game. So, it’s recent. They game-planned us. We game-planned them. They made more plays than we did, so we gave up some big plays. We know (Vikings offensive coordinator) Norv (Turner) very well. He’s an outstanding coordinator and he’ll have them ready to play. So, we’re going to have to play really good on defense.”

And offense. And special teams.

Both teams now employ new quarterbacks with Minnesota turning to Teddy Bridgewater soon after last year’s meeting and St. Louis trading for Nick Foles in the offseason. The Rams have also revamped the rest of the offense and added rookie Todd Gurley at running back. Minnesota has had a rookie emerge, too, in the form of wide receiver Stefon Diggs while Patterson has been relegated to spot duty.

One thing that didn’t change is the head coaches, though the Rams do have a new offensive coordinator in Frank Cignetti.

“I think it can help both teams a little bit, because it’s a lot of the same systems, basically on both sides of the ball,” Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. “But, as far as how we’re different, I think we have a better understanding of the systems right now. Obviously, the quarterback is different. We have different weapons at receiver. Defensively, I think our guys probably feel a little more comfortable, would be the way to say it. But, I guess that’s the two things I would say off the top of my head.”

When Hayes was first asked about the game from last year, he offered a simple response.

“I’d like to forget it,” Hayes said.

Hayes and his teammates will get their chance to wipe that memory away on Sunday afternoon.

zn wrote:

(On his comfort level with S Maurice Alexander and how far he’s come)
“He’s come a long ways. I’ll tell you this and as you guys go and talk to him in the locker room and interview him, last year he couldn’t have a football discussion. And when I say this, and it’s not any knock on him, but here’s a kid that only played one year as a defensive back in college football. One year in his career from Pop Warner to now. Now he comes in the National Football League and has to play in the secondary. I mean, it was overwhelming. My personality is a little overwhelming. From the structure, discipline, accountability and trying to break his spirit on a couple of things and getting him to be more structured, more accountable, more focused and he’s done fabulous. He can have conversations now where I think I’m talking to one of his coaches or both of his coaches.

I know a lot of people have issues with Gregg Williams because of his previous excesses. I don’t blame them. I have a “people can re-make themselves” mindset, so I don’t share those feelings, but still I understand why guys would be skeptical of him, or just reluctant to move on from harsher judgements.

But 2 things.

1 is, IMO he is a great defensive coordinator.

2 is, he’s also a very good interview. At first I didn’t think so…he was much more insecure at first…but now, when he just talks shop, he’s one of the best interviews Rams have had among their coaches for a long time.

.

Devalue This

by Peter King

TUE MAY. 26, 2015

Conventional wisdom is that you can find your feature running back late in the draft, or even sign one off the street. So how could the Rams take a running back five months removed from ACL surgery with the 10th overall pick? Because Todd Gurley is a rare breed: a running back you can build an offense around

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/26/todd-gurley-2015-nfl-draft-st-louis-rams

In part because NFL news is never-ending, and in part because you just can never read enough about allegedly deflated footballs, one off-season story has gotten a small fraction of the attention it would have gotten during a quieter May.

In a time of radical devaluation of running backs, a tailback five months removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL was selected 10th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.

And so you think one of two things about Todd Gurley: Either he’s really good, or the Rams really reached to pick him in the top third of round one.
“It’s never been a big thing to me, where I get drafted, who drafts me,” Gurley said in the wake of the Rams’ choice—and the revelation (per The MMQB) that St. Louis had the rehabbing runner as the No. 1 overall player on its 2015 draft board. “I always felt it’d be a blessing just to get drafted, and to be able to continue playing football somewhere in the NFL. Tenth overall, whatever… I’m happy to just get drafted, period.

First, a few factoids about the value of running backs:

1. Of the 13 leading rushers in the NFL in 2014, one (Marshawn Lynch) was a first-round draft pick.

2. In the 2014 draft, the first running back came off the board at the 54th overall pick. That was Bishop Sankey, taken by Tennessee.

3. In the four drafts between 2011 and 2014, only one running back was picked in the top 25 of any draft. That was Trent Richardson, selected No.

3 by Cleveland in 2012.

4. Number of teams that have employed Trent Richardson since 2012: three.

5. Number of 100-yard rushing games by Trent Richardson in his last 40 games: zero.

6. And finally: If you take the top 10 rushers in the NFL in 2014 and figure the average overall draft pick spent on those 10 players, that number would be 95, around the last pick of the third round. (That includes one undrafted free agent, Arian Foster. There were 256 players drafted the year he was not chosen, 2009, and so for the sake of figuring this average, I gave Foster the number 257.)

Strangely, in light of all that, when I called around in the days after the draft about any number of topics, I didn’t hear one GM or personnel man say, The Rams are crazy. In fact, I found out that Tampa Bay had Gurley No. 5 on its board. I found out that one annually intelligent drafting team had Gurley at No. 11—and would have tried to move up into the late teens to get him had he still been on the board around pick 15 or 16.

One reason is that NFL teams trust Gurley’s surgeon, Dr. James Andrews, to be able to put his knee back together again and get it in the same condition, or tighter, than when it was injured last November. Andrews told teams the week before the draft that he’d put his professional reputation on the line that Gurley, when fully healed sometime late this year, will be as good as he ever was, and no more susceptible to chronic knee problems than any other running backs.

The other reason: NFL teams saw Gurley as the best back to come into the draft since Adrian Peterson was picked seventh overall in 2007. The comparison is interesting. Peterson is 6-1 and 218; Gurley is 6-1 and 222. Peterson’s official 40 time is 4.40; Gurley’s estimated 40 time is 4.40. Peterson has reportedly run a 40-yard dash in 4.24 seconds, and Gurley, who ran the 110-meter hurdles at the World Junior Championship in 2011, has been recorded below 4.3 in the 40 too. Peterson has made his living being strong enough to make the tough yards between the tackles and fast enough to hit the home runs outside the tackles. Ditto Gurley.
St. Louis has been dying for a franchise running back. Since Steven Jackson left for Atlanta two years ago—and even before, actually; the Rams thought Jackson was declining in 2012—coach Jeff Fisher has wanted a back like Gurley. Fisher is a throwback coach. Most of the league craves an offense with a 60-40 pass-run split. Fisher would love it to be 50-50, or even 55-45 run. He likes to play offense with a back capable of wearing down defenses with long drives early in games and eating the clock in the fourth quarter.

“Here’s what it came down to for us,’’ said GM Les Snead. “Todd, for us, was one of those once-every-few-years talents, one of the best players we’ve seen come out in a while. We just felt he was somebody we couldn’t pass up. This wasn’t about Week 1 against Seattle, whether he’d be ready to go then; we will let nature takes its course on that. This was a long-term decision.

“One of the things we looked at was the team around him. I’m not sure about this, but it’s possible there might not be an offensive lineman who blocked for him at Georgia who will start at the next level, or play at the next level. When we looked at him on tape, we saw him playing against a lot of seven- and eight-man fronts, which is what he’s going to be seeing when he lines up for us. We saw him playing against not a lot of air, which is what he’s going to be seeing when he plays for us. So that translates pretty well.”

I asked Snead about the Adrian Peterson comparisons.

“I can see people thinking of him at that level,’’ he said. “When you watch him, you see him run like that sometimes.”
And Gurley?

“That comparison is not up to me,” he said unemotionally. It’s clear this is not the first time he’s been asked about being the best since Peterson—in the eyes of some. “It’s a great comparison, but it’s not something I have any idea about. I’ve got a long way to go for that.”
Mike Mayock said he likes the Marshawn Lynch comparison more. “St. Louis wants to win games the same way Seattle and San Francisco in the same division do—running the ball and playing great defense and playing great special teams,” the NFL Network analyst said. “I like the fit in St. Louis.”

* * *

For Gurley (no helmet), the wait for a return to the field continued at minicamp. (Jeff Roberson/AP) For Gurley (no helmet), the wait for a return to the field continued through minicamp. (Jeff Roberson/AP)
Fisher really hasn’t had a workhorse back with some outside burst since Eddie George in Tennessee. And even George would admit he didn’t have the burst Gurley does. But the story here is not just Gurley helping Fisher play football the way the coach has always wanted to. It’s also that the Rams don’t want Nick Foles to have it in his head that he has to throw it 35 times every week for the team to have a chance to win. If Fisher had his way, the quarterback would be a complementary player. He doesn’t want to play a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning game—in part because he doesn’t have Brees or Manning, but mostly because he’s more comfortable playing football the more traditional way.

If the rest of the NFL wants to move the chains with 40 mostly short passes every game, Fisher understands. That’s the way teams are being built. He’d preferred to win with a strong ground game, and a mashing line. Now that he has his preferred front five and running back, we should see by late this season (when Gurley is back to form) if he’s right.
“It’s been a long time coming,’’ Fisher said after the draft, speaking of his desire to get a back he can make his go-to offensive key. “Clearly, he was set back because of the injury, but the athletic ability, the strength, the explosion, the acceleration, the instincts that he has as a runner, and he’s also got great hands out of the backfield. He’s that complete back. This was an opportunity we could not pass up. The board was right.”
He’s referring to the board that had Gurley as the draft’s No. 1 overall player. It’s a risk, particularly when recent history says running backs can be found low in the draft (and after the draft too). Fisher might be putting his future with the Rams on the line with Gurley, and one thing is sure: He’s happy to do it.

Vikings vs. Rams Preview

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/11/5/9664070/minnesota-vikings-st-louis-rams-preview-nfl-week-9-picks

Most of the time when I start writing my weekly Vikings previews I know who I’m picking to win and I build my narrative around it. But honestly I’m a little stumped this time around. I have already gone back and forth with my pick more times than Aaliyah. The Vikings and Rams have some amazing strengths, glaring weaknesses, and striking similarities. Both teams are also trying to beat formidable odds to fight their way into the playoffs. Minnesota and St. Louis are currently the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC respectively; the Vikings have made the playoffs in only three of the past ten seasons while the Rams haven’t qualified for the postseason since 2004. Beating that 800-pound gorilla is no easy task for these teams but both seem like they could be on the cusp.

As they say in boxing, styles make fights. Since this looks like it could be a good old fashioned slobberknocker, I’m going to the tale of the tape to help decide. I’ll break down the major matchups in this bout of up and coming contenders to see who I’ll pick. Let’s start with the main event.

Adrian Peterson vs. Todd Gurley

It’s the classic boxing movie matchup–the veteran champion out to prove he still has it versus the undefeated up-and-comer looking to show the world that he’s the new standard. Adrian Peterson has arguably been the best running back in the league since he burst on the scene in 2007. Todd Gurley has only played five professional football games in his career but it already looks like he’s gunning for Peterson’s title. Exactly two running backs in NFL history have rushed for over 100 yards in four of their first five games; both will be starting at TCF Bank Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

If you have read anything about Gurley in the past couple weeks, you’d think that he was Adrian Peterson 3.0–an unstoppable blend of Gale Sayers, LeBron James, Barry Sanders, and Wolverine. This was an actual quote from an SB Nation article. Not Turf Show Times, but from our parent site:

Todd Gurley doesn’t really need blockers. He just needs some vague hint of sunshine to ping-pong his way through a sweaty mass of humanity.

Look. I get it. The dude is electrifying. He’s fast, he can break tackles, and if you don’t cover your gaps, this happens:

But Gurley’s season has been more similar to Peterson’s than you might think. Just like AP, Gurley has toiled behind some pretty poor blocking and has been stopped near the line of scrimmage on a large portion of his runs. Like Peterson, most of Gurley’s gaudy stats are racked up on a handful of “home run” plays while the rest of his touches have minimal success.

IF YOU HAVE READ ANYTHING ABOUT GURLEY IN THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS, YOU’D THINK THAT HE WAS ADRIAN PETERSON 3.0–AN UNSTOPPABLE BLEND OF GALE SAYERS, LEBRON JAMES, BARRY SANDERS, AND WOLVERINE.
Speaking of success, Football Outsiders has a statistic for running backs called Success Rate. You can read all about what goes into it here, but basically it represents a back’s consistency. Success Rate is measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. Gurley has a Success Rate of 45% this season. Peterson: 44%.

Am I still terrified of what Gurley might do? Of course. He will definitely be the #1 priority for the Vikings defense on Sunday. But let’s hold off on comparing him to Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson for now.

Advantage: Push. Which is pretty amazing since we’re comparing one of the best backs ever to a guy that has played five games.

Stefon Diggs vs. Tavon Austin

This is like one of those flyweight matchups on the undercard that nobody pays attention to until they start throwing haymakers for ten rounds. Both Diggs and Austin were only supposed to make noise in the return game this year; neither was being taken seriously as a viable wide receiver threat this early in their careers.

It’s obviously time to take both of them seriously. Austin gives the St. Louis offense another home run threat every time he touches the ball. He quickly turned a simple screen into points last week against the 49ers:

Austin might be a better big play threat but Diggs is already doing everything you could ask for from a young receiver.

Advantage: Vikings. But just a slight one, and only if Diggs is 100%. (I hate writing these previews to post on Thursday when it comes to injuries.)

The rest of the passing targets

This is the undercard fight that only got booked because one of the promoters owed a favor to one of the fighters’ second cousins. Outside of Diggs and Austin both teams have a murderer’s row of disappointment when it comes to pass catchers.

Mike Wallace, Jarius Wright, Kyle Rudolph, and Charles Johnson have combined for 719 yards this season. Antonio Brown has 718 and he had to deal with Mike Vick and Landry Jones for a month! It isn’t any better for the Rams: Jared Cook, Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey, and Brian Quick have combined for 693. There are six individual receivers with more yardage this season. Yikes.

Advantage: Nobody. Both fighters threw in the towel here.

Teddy Bridgewater vs. Nick Foles

This should have been the fight right before the main event between two young fighters poised to contend for the belt in the coming years. Instead it looks like two overly cautious fighters throwing listless jabs at each other as they timidly circle the ring.

Bridgeboa–er, Bridgewater–has been solid most of the year. His numbers haven’t been great most weeks but they really shouldn’t be with how Norv Turner is currently running the offense. Teddy ranks towards the bottom in most cumulative statistics yet lands towards the middle in more qualitative numbers like Pro Football Focus rating and Total QBR. I was a little critical of Bridgewater last week on Twitter and was unsurprisingly chastised by Teddy Truthers for it. I still think the Chicago game was probably his worst overall game of the season even when you include the fourth quarter heroics. He missed some open deep balls, which isn’t a new development. What was new last week is the fact that he had more time to pass and the Bears’ pass coverage was better than expected. Bridgewater didn’t fare well with his new experiences.

It’s almost like he was so used to getting chased if his first couple reads were covered that he didn’t know what to do with the extra time.

Teddy has been playing “good enough to win” for the past few weeks. He’ll need to play significantly better for that to remain true over the next stretch of games.

Meanwhile, there isn’t much debate around the fact that Nick Foles has been underwhelming in his first season with the Rams. To be fair, he isn’t asked to do as much in his offense and his receivers aren’t doing him many favors either. And he’s still probably an upgrade over Sam Bradford. But Foles ranks behind Bridgewater on most advanced metrics and his play backs it up. He hasn’t been awful, but there have been too many passes and decisions that leave you scratching your head.

Advantage: Vikings. But not as big as it could be.

Defenses

At first glance this heavyweight bout seems incredibly close. The Vikings are allowing the second fewest points per game; the Rams are allowing the fourth fewest. The Rams allow the sixth fewest yards per game in the league; the Vikings are one spot behind. But the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings tell a different story. Their complex ranking system takes compares a team’s performance on every play based on the situation and the strength of opponent.

Since most of the Vikings’ wins have come over teams from the bottom of these rankings, the opponent adjustment hasn’t been kind to Minnesota. The Rams defense ranks 4th while Minnesota’s is all the way down at 24th. Aaron Schatz further explained why the Vikings have such a low DVOA last week:

Every week, the Vikings’ Week 1 loss looks worse as the 49ers play like garbage and the opponent adjustments gradually get stronger.

Pretty hard to argue that. Except everyone knows that Week 1 didn’t actually count because that stupid really late Monday Night Football game is always screwy and the Vikings thought it was their sixth preseason game so that’s why their DVOA isn’t as good as it should be! (Right?!)

That said, the Rams still probably have a better overall defense. I have been saying all season that Minnesota’s defensive line is their deepest and most talented unit. It might not even be the deepest or most talented defensive line in the game Sunday. Depending on the injury status of Robert Quinn and Chris Long, St. Louis can trot out about a half dozen very formidable weapons to get after the quarterback. Bridgewater won’t need to worry about the extra time he had in Chicago this time around.

While Vikings linebackers are a step above what the Rams have to offer (as long as Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are OK to play), the Rams definitely have the advantage in the secondary. Janoris Jenkins, Trumaine Johnson, Rodney McLeod, and T.J McDonald are all having solid seasons. Mixing a good secondary with a great pass rush is a lethal combination for opposing offenses.

And remember, the Rams defense is run by Gregg Williams, whom Vikings fans should be intimately familiar with thanks to the 2009 NFC Championship Game. (Fun fact: the extra G in Gregg stands for GODDAMN CHEATER.) He might be a horrible person but he’s still pretty good at calling up defenses.

Advantage: Rams. And it’s fairly significant.

Offensive lines

This is one those ridiculous “Toughman” fights where two overweight guys slug it out and it lasts two rounds at the most because nobody blocks. We have spent plenty of time griping about the Vikings offensive line this season. Either the run blocking isn’t opening enough holes for Peterson or the pass blocking isn’t giving Teddy enough time. Just know that it could be worse. Much worse. It feels like a large majority of the league has the same kind of complaints about their offensive lines, and Pro Football focus agrees. The Vikings actually are in the top half of the league in their rankings, coming in at 14th.

The Rams offensive line is decidedly not in the top half at 27th. Gurley is going to have to earn every yard he gets on Sunday.

Advantage: Vikings. No, really!

Schedules

It’s true that the Rams haven’t been playing a murderer’s row of a schedule either over the past couple weeks. To borrow another boxing term, St. Louis and Minnesota have been beating up on tomato cans. The Browns and 49ers are every bit as bad as the Bears and Lions. But the Rams have something the Vikings don’t–a victory over a team with a winning record (Arizona in Week 4). On the road, no less. They also upset the Seahawks in Week 1. That seemed a lot more impressive at the time, but Seattle will likely be favored when they visit Minnesota in a month. The overall DVOA rankings agree: St. Louis is 13th while the Vikings are 27th.

Advantage: Rams. Mostly because of that damn 49ers game.

Turnovers and Special Teams

When everything else seems so closely matched, these are the two factors that can make the difference on the judges’ scorecards. Turnover margin for the Rams (+3) and Vikings (+1) is basically a wash. However, the Vikings have had some pretty incredible fumble luck through the first seven games. They have recovered 6 of their 9 fumbles on offense and had recovered every opponent fumble up until Marc Mariani’s two muffed punts last week.

I never thought I would say this a month ago, but Minnesota has a distinct advantage in the kicking game. Blair Walsh has been making just about everything while Greg Zuerlein is only 9 of 15 on field goals this season. Scoring should be at a premium and Walsh’s leg will likely be called upon to score some very important points.

Advantage: Vikings. You can keep Greg the Leg.

Hopefully the judges scored this one right, because I think the loser of this game has a very good chance to be KO’ed from the playoff picture. The road doesn’t get any easier for the Vikings over the next several weeks, so they need to win this prizefight.

Prediction

Vikings 16, Rams 13