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znModerator7 things to watch: Rams vs. Bears
• By Jim ThomasLITTLE BROTHER, BUT NO BIG BROTHER
A knee injury prevents DE Chris Long from going head-to-head with his younger brother, Bears RT Kyle Long. Instead, it’s veteran William Hayes lining up over Kyle. The two have a history. Two years ago in St. Louis, Hayes got under Kyle’s skin to the point where he shoved Hayes down from behind, then jumped onto Hayes, drawing a penalty. “Kyle’s a little hot-headed, so it’s easy to get to him,” Hayes said, smiling. “Kyle’s a good friend of mine, but he knows come Sunday I’m gonna try my best to get up under skin.”
ALL ALSHON, ALL THE TIME
First-round draft pick Kevin White remains on the PUP list following surgery to repair a stress fracture of the left tibia. Veteran Eddie Royal misses his second straight game with a knee injury. When it comes to wideouts, that leaves the Chicago passing game in the hands of Alshon Jeffery. He’s a big target (6-3, 216) and a master at coming down with contested balls. He has been targeted a whopping 42 times over the past 3 games with 28 catches for 414 yards in those contests, but is questionable with a groin injury.
ROOKIE THREAT
Two-time Pro Bowler Matt Forte is expected to miss his second straight game with a knee injury, but Jeremy Langford proved to be a more than capable replacement Monday against San Diego. The rookie from Michigan State accounted for 142 yards rushing/receiving (and a TD) vs. the Chargers. Whereas Forte is more of a smooth, gliding runner, Langford hits the hole hard, showing good burst and acceleration. Beware of him in the passing game; the Bears already are using him in a variety of ways.
DON’T SLEEP ON JAY
Under new offensive coordinator Adam Gase and QBs coach Dowell Loggains, Jay Cutler is playing more efficient, savvy football and minimizing mistakes. Last season under the previous coaching regime, Cutler had 24 turnovers via either an INT or lost fumble. Midway through this season, he has only seven — although he had his first multiple turnover game of 2015 vs. San Diego with a lost fumble and a “pick 6.” Cutler is getting the ball out quickly against pressure, and still has one of the game’s strongest arms.
KEY MATCHUP
DE Robert Quinn had played in 70 consecutive games before sitting out last week’s Minnesota contest with a knee injury. But Quinn, who has more sacks than all but two NFL players (J.J. Watt and Justin Houston) since the start of the 2012 season, is expected to play this week. He’ll face inexperienced but athletic Bears LT Charles Leno Jr., who has played well enough to hold off veteran Jermon Bushrod. Leno gave up a sack fumble on Chicago’s second possession against San Diego that ended a promising drive.
NO-NAME DEFENSE
Think about all the great players who made Chicago’s defense the Monsters of the Midway over the years. Then look at the Bears’ current defensive lineup. That’s right, there’s a distinctive lack of star power for coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit. And the best performer of the bunch, OLB Pernell McPhee, didn’t practice all week with a knee injury. Chicago switched to a 3-4 this season, Fangio has done a good job of masking weaknesses, and the Bears come to town ranked 9th in total defense.
MANY HAPPY RETURNS?
Rams special teams have only one return TD this year, and that came all the way back in the season opener against Seattle. Similarly, they haven’t had a kickoff return go longer than 39 yards in 2015. And now come the Bears, who have allowed three return touchdowns this year — two on kickoff returns and one via punt return. Chicago ranks 31st in kickoff coverage, yielding nearly 30 yards per return, and is 27th in punt coverage, yielding 11.2 yards per return. Tavon Austin, Benny Cunningham — you’re up.
znModeratorThe above? What was known all along. He’s better in play action (though this year by a much greater degree since he dropped off massively when not throwing play action compared to prior years). He’s better when he throws the ball quickly (and the difference is extreme). He’s accurate long, but the PFF version of measuring this counts 20 and over as long.
November 14, 2015 at 10:18 pm in reply to: Seattle, Arizona took different approaches in building offensive lines #34116znModeratorSeattle this season is paying its offensive line just over $13 million, 30th out of the 32 NFL teams in spending on that position, according to OvertheCap.com. And roughly half of that is tied up in one player, left tackle Russell Okung, a 2010 first-round draft pick who has a salary-cap number of $7.2 million.
“So basically, it is fill-in type players at every other spot,’’ said Jason Fitzgerald, who writes about NFL financial issues for OvertheCap.com.
Oops.
znModeratorfrom off the net
—
alyoshamucci
With Forte out or dinged I can’t see that the Bears have a chance. Our O line can manage them. That’s really the game. Gurley goes for 200.
November 14, 2015 at 5:40 pm in reply to: 2016 NFL Draft: Early Grades of the Cornerback Class #34110znModeratorDo I have this right? It’s supposed to be a good year for DEs, CBs, and WRs. Good, as in pretty deep.
Which works out nicely for the Rams.
November 14, 2015 at 5:40 pm in reply to: 2016 NFL Draft: Early Grades of the Cornerback Class #34109znModeratorDo I have this right? It’s supposed to be a good year for DEs, CBs, and WRs. Good, as in pretty deep.
Which works out nicely for the Rams.
znModeratorYeah, its not a “third down problem” — it’s
an “Offense problem.”
A “pass offense problem” mostly.I still hold out for the idea that this is newness.
New and first time coordinator.
New qb.
Coordinator and qb don’t know one another.
New and first time OL.
OL doesn’t know one another.
Add regression in the receivers, though lots of reasons for that.
Out of sync.
By that I mean this. Imagine this world (thought experiment). In 2014, Rams promote Cignetti, trade for Foles, and start the OL over again with young players.
In 2015 they would have increased familiarity and better cohesion, and so would be better than the Real Version Of The 2015 Offense is in actual history.
znModeratorTime of possession, staying onside key for Rams against Bears
Nick Wagoner
EARTH CITY, Mo. — The St. Louis Rams and Chicago Bears kick it off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET from the Edward Jones Dome. Here are three things to watch in this matchup:
1. Possession priority: Want an example of how yards allowed per game can be misleading as it relates to “ranking” defenses? Let’s take a closer look at the Bears. On paper, Chicago has the NFL’s No. 9 defense when it comes to yards allowed per game (341.9). The Bears are also fifth in pass defense, yielding 220.3 yards per game in the air. But the Bears are tied for 19th in yards per play allowed (5.72). So where’s the disconnect? Time of possession.
Simply put, the Bears’ defensive numbers are pretty good in large part because the defense isn’t on the field all that much. That’s not to say that defense doesn’t deserve credit for what it’s done, but the stats are skewed enough that it’s probably fair to say they aren’t a top-10 overall unit. Chicago’s offense is fourth in the NFL in time of possession, a tribute to the job done by offensive coordinator Adam Gase and quarterback Jay Cutler and the job they’ve done on third down (tied for eighth in conversion percentage) and not turning the ball over (also tied for eighth-fewest giveaways).
The Rams, meanwhile, are on a record pace for futility in third-down conversion percentage and rank 29th in the NFL in time of possession. It’s important this week for the Rams to not only somehow find a way to sustain more drives, but also to get the Bears off the field when third-down opportunities arise for the defense.
2. Whither Welker?: Rams coach Jeff Fisher maintained all week that a decision on whether newly signed wideout Wes Welker will play would not be made until Saturday night or Sunday morning. He also made it clear that in an effort to get Welker ready, the Rams would put in a package of plays this week that he could learn quickly to give him a chance to be ready to play. Considering that aforementioned league-worst third-down conversion rate and what Fisher said about Welker’s primary function upon signing, it’s safe to assume that if Welker plays, he’ll be viewed as a third-down specialist.
That is something Welker has done well throughout his career, but it’s fair to remain skeptical of just how much he can contribute at age 34 with his long history of concussions and injury. Really, the Rams just need someone, anyone who can keep drives alive on third down. Welker might be the best qualified to do it based on his past, but the Rams probably don’t care who it is as long as it gets done.
3. Holding their water: During the past three weeks, the Rams have been flagged for offside penalties a whopping 12 times, including five against Cleveland three weeks ago and five more last week against Minnesota. Those flags have given opponents first downs, made getting another first down more manageable and many times altered field position in a significant way.
Fisher jokingly said Monday that he would have the defensive line 3 yards off the line of scrimmage all week in order to get the message across. Of course, that didn’t happen, but it has been a point of emphasis all week. The Rams defense is good enough to get the job done without jumping offside, but this goes back to the first category: Any additional offside penalties only increase the chances of the Bears getting first downs and staying on the field.
znModeratorfrom Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/13/the-five-keys-to-a-rams-victory-over-chicago/
full article here: http://theramshuddle.com/topic/reporters-preview-the-bears-game/#post-34085
3. Want To Do Better on Third Down? Here’s How: By now we’re tired of mentioning that the Rams’ third-down conversion rate, an abysmal 23.7 percent, is the poorest by an NFL team since the statistic became official in 1972. But here’s one way to get around that — come up with more positive results on first and second down. The Rams’ inconsistency and weakness in getting to third down is as much of a problem as executing on third down. Here’s a number that tells us a lot: when the Rams break the huddle and line up for second down, they face an average of 8.68 yards to go for a first down. No NFL team has been in a deeper second-down hole than the Rams this season.
Moreover, their second-down performance is lacking. According to STATS LLC the Rams are ranked last in the NFL in successful second-down plays — picking up 50 percent of the yards needed for a first down only 39 percent of the time. Their second-down rushing log is pretty dismal; the Rams have lost yards 11 times and gained no more than 2 yards on half of their 64 runs. The struggles on first and second down create too many highly unfavorable situations on third down. When the Rams need 6+ yards on third down this season, they’ve converted only 8 of 55 — or 14.5%. And when the Rams have to come up with 10+ yards on third down, they’ve failed 31 times out of 36. (A success rate of 14 percent). We spend a lot of time looking at what the Rams are doing wrong on third down. But speaking for myself, I haven’t paid enough attention to their skimpy production on the first two downs.
znModeratorThird-down conversions first priority for St. Louis Rams
Nick Wagoner
EARTH CITY, Mo. — One day after signing wide receiver Wes Welker, St. Louis Rams coach Jeff Fisher was so excited about the prospect of Welker improving his team’s dreadful third-down conversion rate that he called his new wideout by the wrong name when discussing the possibilities.
“You know what I’ll anticipate if he does play and he converts the first down, they’ll probably start chanting ‘Walker’ rather than ‘Gurley,’” Fisher said.
Obviously, Fisher meant Welker, but whether it’s Welker or Jimmy Walker, anyone who can help the Rams improve their NFL-worst third-down conversion rate from it’s current 23.8 percent would qualify as dyn-o-mite for Fisher and the Rams.
Eight games into the season, that third-down conversion rate is not only the worst in the NFL but on pace to be the worst since STATS, LLC began tracking it in 1972. The Rams have converted between zero and two third downs in five of their eight games, with the season high of six coming in the season opener against Seattle.
In the past three games, the Rams are an especially anemic four-of-37, and they are 24-of-101 this season, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL. Miami is the closest at 28.9 percent.
In the ESPN Stats & Information database that goes back to 2001, the 2002 Dallas Cowboys and 2005 San Francisco 49ers were closest to the Rams’ current rate at an even 24 percent. By way of comparison, the 2014 Rams were 27th at 35.4 percent, going 68-of-192. Cleveland was last at 29.5 percent.
No matter how you slice it, the inability to convert third downs and sustain drives has been the Rams’ single biggest problem in the first half of the season.
“It’s not good,” Fisher said. “We need to get better. Four in three games is not good. Like I said, I’ll take five or six of them, but four in three games is not good. We have to get better. That’s a coaching thing. That’s a player thing. That’s a quarterback thing. It’s everybody that’s involved in that, so we’ll get better.”
Well, one would think they’d almost have to get better just by dumb luck but as Fisher points out, the failure to be better on third down can be attributed across the board. But one place to start would be finding more success on first and second down to create more manageable third downs.
Of their 101 third-down opportunities, 63 of them have been from 6 yards or further. As you’d expect, the Rams have been particularly bad in those situations, converting 11 of those, a 17.5 percent conversion rate. Between 1 and 5 yards, the Rams have converted 13-of-38 for a more palatable 34.2 percent.
Along with that, the Rams have converted 31.3 percent of their third downs on the 16 run plays they’ve tried. When they pass, the Rams are 19-of-85 for 22.4 percent.
In other words, faring better on first and second down would go a long way toward more third-down conversions.
“That helps third down a lot,” quarterback Nick Foles said. “First and second down, staying inside of the sticks, not getting to third-and-7 plus. The percentage of converting on those isn’t nearly as high. Staying inside of the chains will help us a lot. First and second down are huge for us.”
Aside from having more success on the first two downs, one simple solution falls at the feet of offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti and Foles: Throwing the ball at or past the first down marker on third down.
Of those 85 third-down pass plays the Rams have tried, they’ve attempted 44 that were short of the first-down marker. To nobody’s surprise, they’ve converted just four of those for 9.1 percent. When they actually throw to the marker or beyond, they’ve converted 15-of-41 for 36.6 percent.
“We just have to continue to work on it,” Fisher said. “Give Nick some options, different concepts, do better on first downs. You guys have got the numbers. We had 16. We’re two for 16. I think six of them were seven to 10 and we had four or five that were 10-plus. It’s hard. So, it all works together. But, we have to get better there.”
That’s where the Rams are hoping that Welker will come in. Welker built his reputation in the league as the ideal chains-mover, the type of slot receiver who can operate in short areas with crisp, quick routes that offer easy completions for first downs.
Since 2001, Welker is eighth in the NFL among active players in third-down receptions (213), seventh in third-down catches that result in a first down (168) and fourth in catch percentage (64) on third-down passes thrown his way.
At 34, Welker is coming off a series of injuries that include myriad concussions. Expecting him to magically solve the third-down issues is probably asking too much. But if nothing else, his veteran savvy and reliable hands should be a welcome sight when the Rams face third downs. Even just another three or four conversions per game would go a long way in getting the Rams back toward the NFL average.
“I don’t see myself as being the solution to all that or anything like that,” Welker said. “I’m just here trying to learn the offense and trying to contribute any way I can and help out any way I can.”
znModeratorThe Five Keys To a Rams’ Victory Over Chicago
Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/13/the-five-keys-to-a-rams-victory-over-chicago/
Other than the turnovers and injuries that have considerable impact in any game, here’s my quick-hit look at five areas that figure to be prominent in determining the Rams’ fate in Sunday’s noon brawl with the visiting Chicago Bears:
1. The Todd Gurley Show: The rookie running back is always paramount in the success of the Rams’ offense; to even mention this seems redundant. But there was a purpose to me being predictable. This will be Gurley’s sixth start. And if you go by the rankings for weighted rushing defense at Football Outsiders, the Bears are the least imposing group to take on Gurley since he moved into the starting lineup. The Bears rank 31st among the 32 teams in adjusted run defense, which accounts for strength of schedule. Using the standard stats, the Bears are 24th in rushing yards per game (121.6) and 27th in average yield per carry (4.63). But here’s the interesting thing about Chicago’s run defense: the Bears actually do a good job of denying big-play runs of 20+ yards. But no NFL rushing defense has been worse than the Bears in preventing successful running plays — which by definition are rushes that gain at least 4 yards.
But opponents have gone for at least 4 yards on 52 percent of their runs vs. Chicago. And only seven NFL teams have been rolled more often than the Bears on runs that net at least 10 yards. The Bears are among the worst defenses in the NFL against first-down runs, allowing nearly 4.8 yards per carry. And the defense doesn’t come up with many negative plays that knock opponents back; the Bears have stuffed only 10 running plays this season — the fewest in the NFL. In other words, teams have just slammed away at Chicago’s defensive front with persistent, physical and powerful runs. Gurley is special because of his ability to break a defense with speed or power. He’s a breakaway threat at any moment — but also thrives at grinding away for the tough yards.
2. A Special Invitation for Nick Foles: For the most part the Rams’ quarterback has been a low-impact performer. And while there are many contributing factors to the league’s dullest passing attack, the good quarterbacks manage to find ways to step up and make plays. Foles has absorbed more total hits than any NFL quarterback this season, and the punishment could be wearing on him. But the Bears’ pass defense is an inviting, attractive target. Chicago has been rifled for a 101.1 passer rating this season, sixth-worst among the 32 teams. The Bears have been air-raided for 17 touchdown passes, and have countered with only four interceptions. And this final stat may prove soothing for Foles: the Bears have only 14 sacks this season. That’s 25th. Foles should have time to throw, and the Bears are awfully loose in their pass coverage. This seems like a good opportunity for a Foles’ warm-up.
3. Want To Do Better on Third Down? Here’s How: By now we’re tired of mentioning that the Rams’ third-down conversion rate, an abysmal 23.7 percent, is the poorest by an NFL team since the statistic became official in 1972. But here’s one way to get around that — come up with more positive results on first and second down. The Rams’ inconsistency and weakness in getting to third down is as much of a problem as executing on third down. Here’s a number that tells us a lot: when the Rams break the huddle and line up for second down, they face an average of 8.68 yards to go for a first down. No NFL team has been in a deeper second-down hole than the Rams this season.
Moreover, their second-down performance is lacking. According to STATS LLC the Rams are ranked last in the NFL in successful second-down plays — picking up 50 percent of the yards needed for a first down only 39 percent of the time. Their second-down rushing log is pretty dismal; the Rams have lost yards 11 times and gained no more than 2 yards on half of their 64 runs. The struggles on first and second down create too many highly unfavorable situations on third down. When the Rams need 6+ yards on third down this season, they’ve converted only 8 of 55 — or 14.5%. And when the Rams have to come up with 10+ yards on third down, they’ve failed 31 times out of 36. (A success rate of 14 percent). We spend a lot of time looking at what the Rams are doing wrong on third down. But speaking for myself, I haven’t paid enough attention to their skimpy production on the first two downs.
4. The Rams Defense Must Rest: Quarterback Jay Cutler and the Bears’ offense do a really effective job of extending possessions. Only three NFL offenses have had more possessions than last 10 plays or longer than the Bears’ 19. They’ve also scored seven touchdowns at the end of these sustained marches — a sign that the opposing defense is tiring along the way. (By the way: the Rams’ have had only only three possessions of 10 plays-plus.) The Bears have hogged the football for a minimum of five minutes on 12 possessions. They just keep moving the chains, steadily and efficiently, with a methodical approach that can make a defense impatient or weary. That’s one huge advantage that the Bears bring to this game; unlike the Rams’ offense the Chicago offense is strong at converting third-down and fourth-down plays, ranking sixth in the NFL at 44.6%.
One reason for the Bears’ extended stays is improved pass protection for Cutler. Previously one of the most hounded NFL quarterbacks, Cutler has been sacked on only 3.9 percent of the team’s passing plays this season. That’s No. 6 in the league at preventing sacks, and the extra security has enhanced Cutler’s play. Well, the Rams’ defense will try to chip away at the wall that shields Cutler, something this sack attack does very well. The Rams are among the NFL’s stingiest at limiting the number of extended drives by opponents. The Rams have forced three-and-outs by opponents on 21 percent of their possessions. The Rams’ defense has been taken for a ride on only eight of those five-minute drives. The Rams’ defense has stayed on the field for plays or more only 12 times. And the Rams are stopping opponents on third down at a rate of 66.2 percent that comes in at fifth best in the rankings. The Chicago offense doesn’t want to give up the ball; the Rams defense doesn’t want to stay on the field. Something has to give, right?
5. Superiority on Special Teams: I’ll keep this one short. I’m tired of typing (wink.) Football Outsiders has a formula for rating the overall, all-around performance of the league’s 32 special-teams units. The Rams come in at No. 10 in those rankings. And the Bears are last at No. 32. So the kicking game could swing in the Rams’ favor.
znModeratorBuckle Up, Rams. You Can’t Afford Another Slip
Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/13/buckle-up-rams-you-cant-afford-another-slip/
Let’s begin by stating the obvious: the Rams need this game. Winning on Sunday isn’t an option; defeating the Chicago Bears is mandatory. After last week’s pratfall at Minnesota, the Rams are pretty much out of mulligans. The NFC playoff field is crammed with teams straining for separation. Another slip could be devastating.
Here are three playoff-odds reports to give you an idea of the trouble that’s brewing for the Rams:FiveThirtyEight.com gives St. Louis a 19 percent chance to make the playoffs; that includes an 8% shot at winning the NFC West. After beating the 49ers at home on Nov. 1 the Rams playoff probability was 26 percent — so the setback at Minnesota was costly.
The Rams have a lot of traffic in front of them in the NFC, with Carolina (99%), Green Bay (93%), Arizona (73%), Minnesota (66%), Seattle (59%), Philadelphia (57%), Atlanta (55%), and the NY Giants (45%) in superior position to claim the two wild-card spots. Some of the teams will their divisions. But even if Green Bay rebounds to win the NFC North, Philadelphia takes the NFC East, Carolina pockets the NFC South and Arizona closes in on the NFC West title, the Rams would still be chasing multiple teams including Minnesota, Seattle, Atlanta and New York.
And at FootballOutsiders.com the Rams are given a 29.9 percent of qualifying for the playoffs, which is better than the forecast at FiveThirtyEight. But even with improved odds the Rams could get lost in the pile-up. Among likely wild-card bidders the Rams have an estimated 22.2% shot — they’re sitting behind Atlanta (51.2%), Seattle (32.2%) and Minnesota (31.2%).
Over at PredictionMachine.com the Rams have a lower wild-card probability at 17.1%.
The Rams are a 7-point favorite over the Bears, and FiveThirtyEight gives Chicago a chance of only 29 percent to win the game.
That just underlines the Rams’ need to win Sunday. After grappling with the Bears, the Rams (4-4) will play the next two games on the road at Baltimore and Cincinnati. All three projection sites we’ve mentioned here put the Rams right around 8-8 for a final record. I’m no Nate Silver, but I figure 10 wins are necessary to book a wild-card ticket. If that’s accurate, the Rams must go 6-2 in their final eight games. It can be done, yes. But that’s up to the Rams who can’t count on other teams to capsize. Coach Jeff Fisher’s team already lost to one opponent, Washington, that has an inferior record (3-5.) And the Rams couldn’t close the deal when they had close-game opportunities against Minnesota and Pittsburgh. The Rams can’t continue to give away bankable games.
November 13, 2015 at 4:15 pm in reply to: 101, 11/13 … Steve Wyche, Steve Beuerlein, Jeff Dickerson #34066znModeratorBeuerlein’s was good. He said he would like to QB the Rams.
He was very good in 99 with Carolina. 4436 yards, 36 TDs to 15 Ints.
Rams and Panthers were in the same division then. (Which, now that I listened to it, he mentions…he brings up Kevin Carter).
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This reply was modified 10 years, 10 months ago by
zn.
znModeratorPFF
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/11/12/reason-for-hope-for-all-32-nfl-teams/
24-year-old Aaron Donald (+33.3) is PFF’s highest rated DL, and is in the top four in both pass rush productivity and run stop percentage.
Donald and Robert Quinn lead the Rams No. 1-ranked run defense and No. 2 defense overall.
They rank Rams (as said) 2nd overall, 1st against the run, 4th in pass rush, and 6th in pass coverage
===
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Rams ranked 5th overall in total defense
4th against the pass
4th against the run
znModeratorAt age 32, Cutler enjoying his best season as a Bear
Joe Lyons
No one has ever questioned Jay Cutler’s physical ability to play quarterback in the NFL.
In his 10th season overall and his seventh as the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears, who will take on the Rams Sunday in a noon game at the Edward Jones Dome, Cutler remains an enigma — a gifted player who’s never been consistent enough to be considered among the league’s elite.
The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Cutler was blessed with a big-league arm that’s helped him set Chicago records for passer rating, completions, attempts, completion percentage, passing yards, passing yards per game, passing touchdowns and 300-yard passing games.
“Jay can make every throw, he’s a gunslinger,” Rams middle linebacker James Laurinaitis said. “You’re going to live and die with his decision-making, but he’s been making a lot better decisions this season. And he’s taken some big hits… I have a lot of respect for him.
“One thing I remember from the last time we faced him in Chicago (in 2012), he’s a lot more athletic than people give him credit for. He can scramble and take off on you and really make some plays with his feet. He’s one of those guys if you let them get comfortable early, it can be a long day, but if you make him uncomfortable, hopefully you can try to affect him.”
For all the physical tools, Cutler has struggled at times with some of the other skills valued at the quarterback position, things like consistency, decision-making under fire and forcing throws into coverage. Monday, in a 22-19 come-from-behind win in San Diego — the 24th game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime during his career — Cutler flashed both sides of his up-and-down play. He completed 68 percent of his passes for 345 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a 25-yard TD on a one-handed grab by tight end Zach Miller with 3:19 to play for the win.
But he also lost a fumble and had an interception returned for a touchdown, helping the Chargers build a 13-0 lead.
In the victory, Cutler became the winningest quarterback in Bears’ history, surpassing Jim McMahon and, with the two TD passes, passed Hall of Famer Sid Luckman to become the franchise career leader in scoring passes.
This season, working with offensive coordinator Adam Gase and quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains, Cutler is enjoying his best season as a Bear. In seven games, he’s completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,787 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. As importantly, the team has been competitive in all but one of Cutler’s starts.
To Cutler’s credit, he’s played much of the season with less than a full supporting cast. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who has three straight 100-yard receiving games, missed the previous four contests with a hamstring injury and running back Matt Forte, arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL, sat out the San Diego game with a knee injury. In addition, Chicago has been forced to shuffle its offensive line all season.
“You kind of have to see who’s going to be ready to go on Saturday and then maybe adjust the game plan a little,’’ Cutler said. “But the guys that’ve stepped in have done a great job for us.’’
John Fox, the Bears’ first-year head coach, likes what he’s seen of Cutler.
“Jay has been great since I’ve gotten here,’’ Fox said in teleconference call with St. Louis media. “He’s been all in. He’s a smart guy (and) it’s important to him. From learning the playbook, to mastering the offense, to now communicating that … He’s been a pleasure and I have great respect for how he goes about it.’’
Throughout his career, Cutler has been a target of criticism, drawing more than his share of the blame for the struggles of a Bears’ club that has gone 8-14 in his starts since he signed a seven-year, $126 million contract prior to the 2014 campaign.
“I don’t get too involved with that,” Cutler, 32, said of the criticism. “I worry about the guys in the locker room and the coaches in the building.”
Taking over a team that lost five in a row to finish 5-11 in 2014, Fox previously enjoyed successful head-coaching stints with the Carolina Panthers (2002-2010) and Denver Broncos (2011-2014), helping each club to the Super Bowl. He took over in Denver the year after Cutler, the Broncos’ first-round draft pick (No. 11 overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2006, was traded to Chicago.
“You never know what to expect. You hear stuff; you file it away,” he said. “I’ve always been of the belief that I don’t like to make pre-judgements. … Jay has been outstanding for us.”
Cutler said he enjoys working with Gase, one of the league’s up-and-coming coordinators. Gase, who worked in the past with former Rams’ coach Mike Martz, spent the last two seasons as Fox’s offensive coordinator in Denver.
“He’s got an extensive background, worked with a lot of good coaches,” Cutler said. “He’s brought a dynamic offense (and) I think he’s done a great job of using all the weapons we have to keep defenses off balance.”
Rams coach Jeff Fisher was coaching the Tennessee Titans when Cutler was finishing up at nearby Vanderbilt.
“I loved Jay,” Fisher told the Chicago media this week. “I mean, we watched him play in our own backyard. We had a private workout … and coached him in the Senior Bowl. It just didn’t work.
“Looking back, I would say that I had the three quarterbacks ranked Cutler, Matt Leinart and Vince Young.”
In that year’s draft, the Titans selected Young, the University of Texas star, at No. 3, with the Cardinals taking USC’s Leinart at No. 10. The Broncos traded up for Cutler at 11. Only Cutler is still in the league.
“Jay’s playing really well,” Fisher said. “They’re doing a good job with Jay and his fundamentals and his technique and he’s playing well.”
znModeratorFormer Rams OC candidate Adam Gase impressing Jeff Fisher
Nick Wagoner
EARTH CITY, Mo. — Before ultimately opting to go with in-house option Frank Cignetti as his new offensive coordinator, St. Louis Rams coach Jeff Fisher had a few phone conversations with Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase.
Gase was one of last year’s top coaching candidates, earning a variety of interviews for head-coaching jobs and coordinator positions around the league. He very nearly landed the head-coaching job in San Francisco and was considered for other head jobs in Atlanta and even Chicago. Ultimately, some teams believed that Gase wasn’t quite ready to sit in the No. 1 chair and had questions as to whether his success in Denver was mostly due to Peyton Manning.
But Fisher saw through much of that and made it clear that if things reached a certain point, he’d be interested in talking to Gase further. As it turned out, Gase ended up sticking with John Fox and heading with him to Chicago to handle the coordinator job there. But not before Fox had some moments of concern that he might lose out on the 37-year-old.
“It’s like everything, whether it’s position players or staff members, both downstairs and upstairs,” Fox said. “This league is about finding the best human talent you can and then coaching them to be the best they can be every day. It’s competitive. I think it’s like that any time you’re trying to acquire quality people.”
Gase and the Bears will descend upon the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday afternoon as Chicago looks to get to 4-5 on the season. To do so, the Bears will need one of their best offensive performances of the season as they take on the Rams’ No. 5 ranked defense. Chicago enters with the league’s No. 22 offense, which doesn’t sound like much but isn’t bad considering they’ve been without quarterback Jay Cutler, receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte at various points this season.
Cutler, in particular, has benefited from Gase’s presence. Along with quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains, it’s clear that Gase and Loggains have helped Cutler play some of his best football. In his seven games this season, Cutler is on pace to have the best passer rating of his career.
“Jay’s playing really good,” Fisher said. “Adam Gase and Dowell Loggains have done a great job with him. His feet, everything in the pocket. He looks like a different guy. So, making good decisions. His numbers are good. They’re running the football well.”
Schematically, Gase has shown some versatility this year without Manning as his quarterback. He once helped scrap an entire offense and build it around Tim Tebow before working with Manning but now he has the Bears playing a more ball-control style than in years past. Chicago ranks fourth in the league in time of possession in part because of a need to keep its defense off the field.
“First of all, he’s an outstanding assistant,” Fox said. “At the end of the day, these aren’t one-man shows. Your staff is a critical part of winning in this league. I’ve obviously known Adam, he’s not new to me by any stretch. He’s a bright, young coach. He’s a tireless worker and I think he’s done a tremendous job.”
Fisher said he sees elements of the Denver offense in what Chicago is doing now though the approach has been a little bit different. The Rams played Gase’s Broncos last year in a game that the St. Louis defense dominated on its way to a win. In that game, Denver attempted just 10 running plays. That’s almost certainly not going to happen Sunday.
“Well, he’s been in the I guess you could call it the Indy offense, that worked with Peyton,” Fisher said. “He’s just got a good feel for it. They turn a lot over to the quarterback on the line of scrimmage. So, run-pass checks and then pass checks. Then, wherever he’s been, they’ve really been good on third down. We’re facing a team that’s well in the mid-40s from a conversion standpoint, so it’s going to be hard on our defense.”
znModeratorThat’s kind of amazing—I have 16 categories and they rank top 10 in 12 of them.
Hope this lasts.
znModeratorthe teams that are winning have continuity at the Head Coach, QB, and coordinator spots
That must mean “a lot of the teams that are winning.” Not just “THE teams that are winning.” Cause, Atlanta, Minn, and Denver don;t have that kind of longterm continuity at all three spots.
znModeratorfrom PFT’s Week 10 picks
Mike Florio
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/11/11/pfts-week-10-picks-3/
Bears at Rams
MDS’s take: The Bears are showing that they’re a better team than they appeared early in the season, and Jay Cutler may be able to exploit the Rams’ secondary. But they’re coming off a tough game, a long road trip and a short week, and that’s a bad combination for a defense having to tackle Todd Gurley 20-30 times. Look for the Rams to grind this one out in the fourth quarter.
MDS’s pick: Rams 21, Bears 20.
Florio’s take: The Rams have the better team on both sides of the ball. And if all else fails, they should just funnel the Bears toward the concrete.
Florio’s pick: Rams 20, Bears 16.
November 12, 2015 at 7:07 pm in reply to: 101, 11/11 … Matt Bowen, Clayton, Schlereth, Michael Young, & Wagoner x 2 #34031znModeratorYoung is good IMO.
November 12, 2015 at 6:48 pm in reply to: 101, 11/12 – Welker, Wagoner, Bears reporter Jim Miller, Herm Edwards #34028znModeratorCould this be the week Rams fan see more explosive plays in the passing game? Nick Wagoner assesses
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Jim Miller joined Kevin Wheeler to talk about the Bears/Rams matchup, where the Bears can take advantage, and vice versa.
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ESPN NFL analyst Herm Edwards discusses the coaching style of Jeff Fisher and Gregg Williams
znModeratorMinimum NFL fine for first-offense hit on a defenseless player. League can add if sees malice. It did not.
Well it depends I suppose on what someone means by “malice,” but there is “outside the parameters, I intend to hurt you” malice and there’s “I bring intimidation with me” malice that’s not that level of bad. I don’t think Joyner meant the “meaner version of malicious” kind of harm.
Short version: yeah it’s good they did not.
znModeratorIt’s a little early for Welker to make much of a difference, but I guess if he can give them just 2-3 first downs, that would be a wonderful accomplishment.
That’s the life of a Rams fan, right there.
It’s gone from “how many times will Bruce, Holt, and Faulk all get 100 yards receiving in the same game?”
to
“if we can get 2-3 first downs, that would be wonderful, and help seal the victory.”
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znModeratorPractice Report 11/11: Improving the Offense
Myles Simmons
The Rams’ offensive struggles have been well documented, and the team signed wide receiver Wes Welker to help this week. Now comes the task of making sure everyone on the unit improves in order to achieve a better level of consistency.
“We’re not satisfied,” head coach Jeff Fisher said Wednesday. “But, we just need a couple breakout games, and then we’ll get caught up. Not satisfied with the first-down production, and the third-down efficiency, and the points scored, but we’ll get caught up.”
“We’re very optimistic,” offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti said. “We’ve got a great group of coaches. We’ve got a great group of players. We’re at the midway point. Our expectation is to move forward and play better.”
This is a unit that went through a bevy of major changes over the offseason — starting with its coordinator. With the promotions of Cignetti and assistant head coach/offense Rob Boras, the additions of quarterback Nick Foles and running back Todd Gurley, and the shuffling on the offensive line, St. Louis’ offense has a completely different look than it did at this time last year. Given all the moving parts, there are myriad reasons why consistent production has been hard to come by through the first eight games.
As quarterback Nick Foles put it after Wednesday’s practice, the unit knows it has a long way to go, but it will likely never be satisfied — even after a breakout game.
“Us as an offense, we come out here every day wanting to improve,” Foles said. “We’ve got a lot of young guys right now that are working every day. We’re improving. A lot of new personalities, so we’re just continuing to bond. We have a great team here that plays well together. I’m excited about where we’re heading.”
Foles said the team continuing to grow together should improve third-down efficiency. According to the quarterback, the unit has to be better at being in sync in those situations, as defenses have been mixing up their looks and coverages.“We’ve been out-executed as an offense,” Foles said. “We’ve got to make sure we go out there and I have to be accurate with the throw, receivers do a good job getting out of their breaks. It’s a group effort as an offense.”
Staying on target with positive plays on first and second down should be a factor in that area as well.
“First and second down, staying inside of the sticks, not getting to third-and-seven plus,” Foles said. “The percentage of converting on those isn’t nearly as high as on a third-and-two/four.”
Fisher has talked about Welker’s third-down skills since the club signed the wideout on Monday, and Foles said Wednesday the veteran can help in more than just that situation.
“I think just adding him to the mix in general, just what he can do,” Foles said. “Just his ability to get open, his ability to play. Really his ability to impact the receivers will be great.”
“I think just having him in there to teach the young guys maybe how to run different routes versus different coverages, or little things he’s picked up along the way, or just the wisdom of anything is huge for those guys,” Foles added.
Some of that is already being realized, even in the short time Welker’s been with the team.
“Anybody that’s been to the postseason as many times as he has, and played under a veteran quarterback and a veteran system as much as he has can bring a lot of knowledge,” tight end Jared Cook said. “He’s a great veteran receiver. That guy has put up numbers in this league like it’s nothing. So whatever he’s willing to share, I’m willing to learn.”
And so while the team is optimistic the offense will get better, the unit knows it’s a matter of execution from everyone involved.
“We just have to keep going through this process and keep working,” Foles said, “keep fine tuning what we’re doing and eventually it’ll all click together and we’ll be ready to roll.”
INJURY REPORT
The Rams had seven players on their injury report Wednesday, but there was good news to go with it.
Defensive end Robert Quinn (knee), right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle), safety T.J. McDonald (foot), linebacker Akeem Ayers (illness), and defensive end Chris Long (knee) did not participate in Wednesday’s session. Running back Todd Gurley also did not participate, but for a day of rest — not an injury.
“I think Friday is going to be a really good day for us,” Fisher said. “Todd was just a rest day today. He needed the rest. He’ll be fine. I think we’ll see Rob on the field — both Rob’s, No. 94, No. 79 on the field [on Friday].”
As for Long, Fisher said the defensive end is getting closer to returning from his knee injury.
“I think he’s ready to go out and run on land now, so could be a couple weeks,” Fisher said.
Running back Chase Reynolds (thigh) also appeared on the report, but was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice.
znModeratorRamBill
Andy Benoit @Andy_Benoit
Rams O vs. Vikes D
Film: #Vikings shutdown #Rams WR screen game.
#Vikings Film: Barr showed up positively a few times. A sturdy player with some explosive traits. Fits the scheme well.
Film: 3rd-10 on MIN 34 down 18-15 #Rams ran Gurley on power-lead out of 2 RB, 2 TE set….Windy day, but still, tells you everything you need to know about what they think of Foles.
#Rams Film: the vast majority of Austin’s end-arounds went to the right. Have to wonder why.
#Rams Film: late in game #Vikings did a better job vs. Austin end-arounds after getting beat by four or five of them.
Film: #Vikings CB’s Rhodes and Newman are very solid in run support. Zimmer’s CB’s in Cincy were good there, too.
#Vikings Film: Joseph also flashed as a pass rusher. A truly dominant game. He’s been NFL’s 3rd best DT in 2015, behind Donald and Short.
Film: Austin misdirection has become a major facet of #Rams offense. Hard to imagine what they’d be without it.
Film: #Vikings kept Gurley bottled up. A disciplined run D.
#Rams #Vikings Film: Austin burned Sendejo on deep post for would-be TD but Foles, moving off his spot, underthrew it, Austin dropped it.
Film: #Rams used a lot of base slot formations out of “12” with dual LOS TE’s. Sets up run game surfaces and unbalances coverages.
#Vikings Film: Sendejo flashed with up-tempo all-around play. One of the most improved safeties in NFL this year.
cont….Rams this time faked the end around, that impacted LB Greenway and opened up the throwing window.
#Rams Film: Kendricks 20 yds great example of building offense. Came one play after Austin 22 yd end around…..
#Vikings Film: Greenway showed very good play recognition. Was sturdy between the tackles.
#Vikings Film: Joseph stood out in run D. One of best lateral DL defenders in NFL.
#Rams Film: Britt 55 yds PA deep post on post-crosser combo on 3rd-5. PA fake to RB and Austin on end around. Usually a 1st down play call.
znModeratorNovember 11, 2015 at 11:29 am in reply to: RamView, 11/8/2015: Vikings 21, Rams 18 (OT) (Long) #33951znModeratorAren’t those a big set of problems to overcome? Yet they were in that game.
Rams are solid enough all around that a game manager will be good enough to win a lot of games. But not good enough to beat the elite teams. I just don’t think Foles is good enough. Though I would like to see what he could do with a true #1 WR. Something I’ve been asking for now for 3 or 4 years.
znModeratorLook Who’s Back
Peter King
Desperate for help on third down, the Rams signed Wes Welker despite a recent history of concussions. Is the move worth the risk for the Rams and for Welker?
IMO, King’s is the best article on this.
.
znModeratorLook Who’s Back
Peter King
Desperate for help on third down, the Rams signed Wes Welker despite a recent history of concussions. Is the move worth the risk for the Rams and for Welker?
In the end, Wes Welker and the St. Louis Rams were wed in a marriage of convenience for both on Monday. St. Louis is last in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (23.8%), and last by a lot—the Rams aren’t within five percentage points of any other team. And Welker, with the Patriots and Broncos over the past eight years, caught 794 passes, mostly from Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and a slew of them on third down.
But Welker knows, and the Rams know, that they will be criticized for the signing because of Welker’s concussion history. He has had no fewer than six in the NFL, including three in a nine-month span. He played a healthy 2014 season with the Broncos. Still, many teams shied away from Welker because of the league’s fears over the concussion issue—at least—and Welker went to several experts in the field over the past few months to get cleared. That’s how desperate he was to continue playing. In April, he told longtime Broncos beat man Mike Klis that he had been examined by a doctor on the NFL’s Head, Neck and Spine Committee, and the tests came back confirming that he was well enough to play. “My cognitive tests were good,” Welker told Klis. “All kinds of tests came out good.”
On Monday night, Rams GM Les Snead would not discuss anything about Welker’s concussion history because of medical privacy issues. “It’s a very sensitive subject in our league right now, obviously,” Snead said from St. Louis. “The awareness about [concussions] in this league is at an all time high, and should be. I’ll keep all those details in-house. But that was a major part of our homework on this. Wes has talked to those experts in the medical profession. The physical [examination] was a very important part of this.”
Those who have not examined Welker or his medical records are the ones who will criticize the signing, and criticize Welker for not retiring. It’s understandable. Even the best neurologists cannot tell Welker what another concussion would do to his life 10, 20, 30 years from now. Kurt Warner sat because very smart doctors couldn’t predict the future for him, and he wasn’t willing to risk the health of his brain any longer. This is Welker’s choice.
As for the football part of it: The Rams worked out Welker recently, felt he still had the athleticism and ability to be quick in and out of cuts, and knew they were losing wideout Stedman Bailey to a four-game suspension beginning this week. They are the youngest team in football, and Snead and coach Jeff Fisher saw signing Welker as a way to bring a veteran presence, education and experience into a room of young receivers needing a mentor.
“This guy has done nothing but move the chains for two Hall of Famers for the past eight years,” Snead said. “He knows how to get open. But it’s also a way for our players to see the passion he has and to help them become better players and people, just by watching how Wes works and by being around a veteran who’s done so many good things.”znModeratorWEEK TEN
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PFF: NFL POWER RANKINGS ENTERING WEEK 10
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/11/10/pro-nfl-power-rankings-entering-week-10/
17. St. Louis Rams
Since moving to outside linebacker full time, Mark Barron has a run stop percentage of 15.7 percent, which is the best for 4-3 outside linebackers.
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NFL.com:
RANK 16 RAMS
Tough road loss in Minnesota, representing a large missed opportunity for St. Louis on multiple fronts. There was the fourth-quarter missed field-goal attempt by Legatron. The defense couldn’t stop the Vikings’ Shaun Hill-led offense in overtime. Most importantly, the Rams suffered a conference defeat as they head toward what should be a fierce competition for an NFC wild-card spot. Of course, the NFC West is not out of the question, especially if the Rams can down the Cardinals in St. Louis next month.
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PAT KIRWAN
9
Rams: This is a good team that can run the ball and play defense. The QB is still holding them back, but Todd Gurley is a top Rookie of the Year candidate. Last Week: 7====
ESPN
http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings
10
RamsLast Week: 10 Nick Foles has three games this season with no touchdown passes and only one game with multiple touchdown passes. Foles had three starts with no touchdowns in the previous two seasons combined.
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usa today
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/rankings/
11 St. Louis Rams 4-4
Since Todd Gurley took over in Week 4, St. Louis has not had more net yards through the air than on the ground in any game.
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Peter King
16. St. Louis (4-4). No shame in an OT loss at Minnesota, but Nick Foles has to do more.
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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2015/week-9-dvoa-ratings
Rams 14th (28th on offense, 5th defense, 14th special teams).
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