InvaderRam wrote:

how about a million hugs? i can do that.

Naw you don’t owe nothin. Cause…good discussion.

As they said in The Man of Steel, a good discussion is its own reward.

zn wrote:

Adjusted Salary Cap $150,933,521

That long, over-written, lumpy piece of not that well informed about the Rams situation analysis uses the wrong 2016 cap number.

Rams 2016 Offseason Preview

Jason Fitzgerald

http://overthecap.com/rams-2016-offseason-preview/#more-11508

Current Estimated 2016 Cap Space: $36.7 million

Expected 2016 Cap Space: $56.0 million

Estimated Rookie Cap: $5.720 million

Roster Overview

Players Under Contract: 54
Pro Bowlers: 3
Unrestricted Free Agents: 12(7 with 50%+ playtime)
Draft Selection: 15

Salary Cap Breakdown

Free Agents to Re-sign
The Rams don’t have any shortage of free agents to keep this year. I would expect one of the two cornerbacks to be back next season, but it may be too expensive to keep both. It sounded as if they made more an effort to keep Jenkins last season so I’d guess he would be the preferred of the two…William Hayes played well and was a valuable replacement for injury. At 31 he should not be incredibly expensive to keep…While Rodney McLeod is not as well known as some of the other available safeties, he likely will provide more bang for the buck…Mark Barron wound up playing more linebacker than safety and likely has more value to them than most other teams….I would assume Greg Zuerlein will be offered a contract, though he did not have a good year last season.

Free Agents to Let Walk
Eugene Sims has spent his entire career with the Rams but its probably time for the Rams to look for more upside…My guess is someone will offer Nick Fairley a one year deal for more than he is worth. With Michael Brockers slary jumping I cant see the reason to keep Fairley for more than $3 million…Tim Barnes is pretty much a stop gap solution and one would think the Rams would look to find someone else next year.

Contracts to Modify
Chris Long has been a good player for the team but the last few seasons he has just been plagued with injuries. Long has a $14.25 million cap charge and $11.75 million salary. I could see working out a three year extension at a far lower figure to allow him to finish his career with the team…It might be worth extending Brockers before the season. His current salary is over $6 million which could be used as a big portion of his new guarantee package

Players to Consider Releasing
Jared Cook never grew into the role that his contract seemed to indicate the Rams expected from him. They can save $5.7 million in cap and $7 million in cash by releasing him…James Laurinaitis generally grades out poorly and they could save just under $5.8 million if they release him. I could also see an extension for him at a $5,8 million guarantee on a much lower cost deal…If Long does not accept a paycut they would save $11.75 million if they cut him.

Salary Cap Analytics by Bryce Johnston
The premise behind the Rams’ 2012 draft trade – accumulate a large quantity of relatively highly drafted players on overlapping cheap rookie contracts – was sound. Aligning assets in this manner is one way to gain a competitive advantage. If it had worked, the Rams could have been in an enviable salary cap situation, as the team would have had the opportunity to overpay free agents on front-loaded deals and/or push cap space forward throughout the duration of the rookie contracts of the core players, while signing the core players to extensions before hitting free agency (which tend to be at least somewhat below-market extensions). However, for one reason or another this strategy did not translate to many wins, and none of the players from the 2012 or 2013 drafts have received contract extensions.

The good news is that the Rams have not made much of a commitment to this seven-win team, ranking 27th in Commitment Index. The team actually has more current salary cap space than true salary cap commitments in 2017 and beyond. As a result, the Rams are in a position to spend aggressively in free agency without compromising their future salary cap situation, although doing so in conjunction with resigning some of their own impending free agents will likely cause the team to move to the top half of the league with respect to Commitment Index. The team must decide if doing so is advisable, or if it is more prudent to refrain from increasing salary cap commitments until obtaining a QB suitable for contending.

–Bryce Johnston, @NFL Cap Analytics

Expected Contract Outcomes – Expected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions. The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016. A pay cut is treated as a termination. We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options. Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Player Position Expected Outcome Expected Savings
Aaron Donald F7 100.0% $0
Todd Gurley RB 99.5% ($40,841)
Greg Robinson OL 99.3% ($45,374)
Johnny Hekker KP 98.5% $32,548
Tavon Austin REC 95.7% $0
Robert Quinn F7 91.8% $479,926
James Laurinaitis F7 90.9% $502,222
Akeem Ayers F7 88.7% $373,560
Alec Ogletree F7 85.3% $201,137
Nick Foles QB 85.0% $112,725
Rodger Saffold OL 56.8% $1,147,234
Lance Kendricks REC 55.1% $1,459,900
Jared Cook REC 48.3% $2,946,672
Kenny Britt REC 46.4% $2,600,570
Chris Long F7 19.2% $9,492,825
Expected Change in Cap Room +$19,263,104

True Cap Space – Realizable Cap Space depicts the total amount of salary cap space potentially at the team’s disposal in 2016, and True Cap Space makes further adjustments to take into consideration amounts that are accounted for in practical terms. Most True Cap Space will be used on players currently under contract as a result of the team choosing to not release them.

True Cap Space (2016)
Adjusted Salary Cap $150,933,521
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts ($19,798,873)
Realizable Cap Space $131,134,648
Fully Guaranteed Salary ($16,906,392)
Minimum Salary Cap Holds ($20,250,000)
True Cap Space $93,978,256
League Rank 14th

Commitment Index – Commitment Index identifies the degree to which a team has “mortgaged its future” by measuring its net future salary cap commitments as a percentage of the average net future salary cap commitments of all teams. A Commitment Index Score of 100% is average, and a negative Commitment Index Score indicates that the team has more current salary cap space than future salary cap commitments. The Commitment Index Score of every team in the league changes to at least some degree with every transaction executed by any team in the league, so Commitment Index Score is measured as of a specific point in time (in this case, January 11, 2016).

Commitment Index (2017+)
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts $18,295,839
Fully Guaranteed Salary $9,136,257
Current Cap Space ($32,490,626)
Net Commitment ($5,058,530)
Commitment Index Score -29%
League Rank (1st = Most Committed) 27th

Offseason Plan
Every offseason the story seems to be the same with the Rams as their lack of a quarterback and offensive talent locks them into a guaranteed 6 to 8 wins in a season. They have some devastating talent on the defensive line ad have the potential to be a great defense, but every year that offense seems to misfire. For the first time in a few years the Rams will have some cap room to spare even after they keep some of their own players. Can that help with their position needs though? Probably not.

Nick Foles did not work out for the Rams last year and it seems likely they would bring in another player to compete for the job. Once cut Robert Griffin III would have more potential than anyone else available. I’m sure some could look at the defense and say that maybe a veteran like a Drew Stanton or Ryan Fitzpatrick could do something, but unless they improve elsewhere they are better off with the higher upside player even if there is potential to bust completely.

There were rumors that the Eagles were interested in Foles and if that was true and I were the Rams I would look to see what I could get back for him. He has a $6 million guaranteed roster bonus that the Rams could avoid if they traded him and that might be worth it assuming they have another option. RGIII would be cut before the start of free agency so the Rams should have a good idea if they have an option on the table before moving Foles.

The Rams desperately need a receiver, but unfortunately this is not a great free agent group. Names like Rueben Randle and Travis Benjamin are not really much better than what they have and overpaying for a number 2 receiver that won’t have help is going to end up in disappointment. Maybe Marvin Jones could have some upside for this offense but only if it’s at a reasonable number. Expect this to be a draft need more than a free agent one.

I would expect the team to look at the offensive line to see where they could improve. Making a push for Alex Mack of the Browns would be a boost at center and there may be a few guards who can improve the interior line play or add depth to cover for injuries. They could always move on from Rodger Saffold if they really felt they found a strong candidate to replace him. Getting a veteran left tackle to potentially take over for Greg Robinson if he continues to struggle and needs to move to the right side or just take a break might be an option. Probably best to look at players who are released rather than pure free agents.

If they do let Long go the team would have the resources to go after an Olivier Vernon or even take a risk on a Jason Pierre-Paul. They have three really good pieces on that line and they could end up with a superunit if they decided to put the resources there to have the two dominant ends that can rush the passer.

If the Rams find the right options in free agency and the draft they have the opportunity to make a playoff run this year, but if I had to guess the real impact talent for them will need to come from the draft and wont be there in free agency.

wv wrote:

And the Ram-OL Curse.

Well take comfort in the fact, then, that of the 12 linemen then added starting in 2014, 5 have not been injured, including the 4 who have not actually taken the field yet in real games.

It’s true that in the last 2 years, Robinson, Rhaney, Wichman (in the summer), Brown, Havenstein, Donnal and Williams have been injured…to varying degrees, and at different times.

Reynolds was not injured.

And Battle, Kush, Folkerts, and Arkin have not been injured.

So the bright light is, nearly 42% have NOT been injured. Though of course, most of the Injury Free types have not played in a game.

Which might be the secret. You don’t want an injured line? THEN DON’T START ANY LINEMEN IN REAL GAMES.

It could be a breakthrough.

.

from off the net

==

NateDawg122

I’m a UGA student and I say this is a good get for the Rams. Lilly is much more than a TE coach as he’s a good OC as well. He has a good reputation around here. TE is an important position in Georgia’s offense and they are well rounded. They must be able to block well while being consistent pass catchers downfield.

.

wv wrote:

The OLine is still a question mark.

Personally? I don’t think it’s a question mark. I think at worst it is already an average OL.

They added 12 linemen starting in 2014 and haven’t even sorted out yet which of the present 14 they have now…with more to come…will be the 9 or 10 they take into 2016. Either way all the signs indicated they did well with that, with better than usual for rookies rookie performances from 3 of the ones they drafted in 2015 (who gets 3 good linemen in one draft??? …but then who gets 2 consecutive rookies of the year).

Top 40

By Pat Kirwan

https://realfootballnetwork.com/2016/02/15/02-04-16-rfn-top-32/

Well, we’ve had a few more days to evaluate some of these players, watch film, talk to scouts and personnel people around the league, and as you might expect this early in the process, there are some significant changes to our list. The biggest change is at the top.

There is no #1.

That’s right. No one has established themselves as the top player in this draft. Usually the quarterback need that drives so many teams this time of year will force a signal caller to the top of the list, but that hasn’t happened yet. If not a QB, then maybe one of the impact defensive linemen in this draft will take the spot, or one of the big offensive tackles.

It’s important to remember that this isn’t a mock draft determining who will be picked where. This is just an early stacking of the board. There will be consideration for medical issues, character issues, and the position played when stacking this list. This week, being I didn’t give you a #1, I’ll give you my top 40.

1. ??????
Yet to be determined, and if a QB doesn’t rise to the top it will be tough for the Titans to move out of the #1 spot in the draft.

2. Joey Bosa, DE/OLB, Ohio State
Bosa can play all three downs, but you have to ask yourself, “Is what you see, what you get?” He looks like a finished product, which is great for early in his career, but is there upside?

3. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
This might be too high for the quarterback from a smaller school, but he did impress at the Senior Bowl and signal callers drive the draft. If your team needs a QB, he will be high on their draft board.

4. Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
Big people with pass rush skills and athleticism to drop are hard to find. Lawson had 37 plays behind the line of scrimmage last year between sacks and tackles for a loss. He can play all three downs.

5. Laremy Tunsil, LT, Mississippi
The best left tackle in the draft, but has had off the field issues that have to be cleared up by teams before I can move him up on the list. He reminds me of the Jets D’Brickashaw Ferguson.

6. A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
Big men that can move and be disruptive inside are very hard to find, and this guy can play in any scheme and multiple spots along the front. He has more pass rush/pressure skills than his stats might indicate.

7. Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA
Injuries have pushed him down from the top five, but his Combine physicals might clear up some of those issues. He may fall on this list because teams really have to rely on 2014 game tapes to determine his final value, but the traits are there for a successful NFL career.

8. Jalen Ramsey, S/CB, Florida State
It appears he can play anywhere on the back end of a defense, and a little at ‘backer in a sub package. Is the versatility a sign of greatness, like a Patrick Peterson, or is it a sign of a jack of all trades and a master of none? The films I watched indicate he is a top flight athlete who can play well at multiple spots.

9. DeForest Buckner, DL, Oregon
The numbers aren’t great, but the size and disruptiveness are a big plus. I remember when teams felt Calais Campbell wasn’t a first round talent, but he became an All-Pro because of the things I see in Buckner. He had 28 plays behind the line of scrimmage this past season.

10. Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi
Not the speed burner some teams are looking for, but a big play wide receiver. In three seasons he had 196 receptions and 18 touchdowns. Any true freshman that comes into the SEC and has 72 receptions and 5 touchdowns has proven to me that he can make the jump to the next level.

11. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
I don’t think Elliott will go this high in the draft, but he is a talent, as proven by his 37 touchdowns and 3,540 yards in the past two seasons. I usually have some concerns about running backs from big time programs with NFL-type offensive linemen in front, but this kid’s 54 receptions in the past two years set him apart.

12. Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
The cornerback position is far from being fully evaluated and I suspect there will be a re-shuffling of the deck through the winter and spring. He is not a 6’0”-plus corner, but he can press, blitz and tackle. I suspect he will move up this list after the combine if he runs well.

13. Jared Goff, QB, California
He came out of high school PAC-12 ready and delivered right away with 18 touchdown passes as a freshman. He went on to finish his career with 90! Some worry about his physique, while others are concerned about the offense he was in at Cal. His combine and pro day workouts will go a long way towards convincing clubs about his pro potential as a top 10 pick.

14. Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky
The former Ohio State player has had serious off the field issues, but he did go to the Senior Bowl to improve his image. If he had a clean character rating he would be a top 10 prospect. No one could block him down in Mobile, and who isn’t looking for a pass rusher like this guy. Risk and reward is the main issue here, and someone will conclude they can get the best out of him.

15. Robert Nkemdiche, DE, Mississippi
Here’s another super talented player with questions about his decision making skills off the field. He can play anywhere across the front and has the QABS (quickness, agility, balance, speed) to make plays. Is he going to fail the drug test and make himself unavailable?

16. Jarran Reed, DL, Alabama
He showed me plenty by showing up at the Senior Bowl when most players with his draft status stay home. He is a solid two down player with some questions about his pass rush skills at the next level. Coaches like working with guys like Reed, and it could go a long way to keeping him this high on the list.

17. Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Stanley has played both right and left tackle and has pass blocking skills. There are times he looks average to me, and other times he looks very solid. I just finished watching the game against Clemson, and I felt like putting him down in the 20’s, but decided to move Shaq Lawson up the list instead.

18. Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
A 4-3 three technique kind of athlete with burst and explosiveness. He will find himself in different spots on draft boards. Teams that play a 3-4 base defense may not see him as high as the 4-3 teams. He does have 35 plays behind the line of scrimmage in the past two seasons, but is more of a disrupter than a sacker. He is not the second coming of Aaron Donald, but he can play.

19. Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA
Another 4-3 three technique type with the QABS to make plays and be disruptive. His 122 tackles in the last two seasons shows an ability to be around the ball, but this is a rich class in defensive linemen and time will tell if he can move up the list.

20. Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
When in doubt, take a big offensive tackle in the first round. He may not have the QABS to line up at left tackle for his entire career, but after watching the tackles in the Super Bowl, Decker could have helped both teams.

21. Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
There are some that believe he is the best QB in the draft, and others that see him as a second round talent. There’s a significant history of teams jumping back into the bottom of the first round to get a QB (Joe Flacco-Delaware). In the last two years, Lynch threw 50 touchdowns and passed for 5,726 yards with only 12 interceptions. He’s big and can run, and after talking with him recently, someone is going to see their future in this young man.

22. Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
In the last two seasons, Ogbah has 110 tackles, 35 tackles for a loss, and 24 sacks. Anytime I see a major college player with 59 plays behind the line of scrimmage in 26 games, it grabs my attention. He has the QABS to be effective in the NFL and appears to have the ability to convert his speed to power, which is necessary at the next level. If he runs well at the Combine, he could start to climb.

23. Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
A late injury might be the only thing keeping this young man from being closer to the top ten. He can play any of the linebacker spots and probably is better suited for a 4-3 defense. He had close to 300 tackles in three seasons and plays the pass well enough to be a nickel ‘backer.

24. Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
Some have him in the second round, and he may very well wind up there, but after watching three Ohio State games, he has some traits of Richard Sherman as a CB, with solid skills to turn and run, close and compete for the ball. His four interceptions at Ohio State doesn’t give a true representation of his play ability.

25. Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
He had a solid week at the Senior Bowl and demonstrated throughout the 2015 season that he can be a penetrating three technique. In the past two years, he has 42 plays behind the line of scrimmage.

26. Jason Spriggs, LT, Indiana
There really aren’t many left tackle candidates in this draft, especially for all the teams that need one. Before the Senior Bowl he was being advertised as a right tackle candidate, but he did enough at practice and in the game to turn people’s heads. Every year, offensive linemen that come to Mobile as second round prospects leave as first round guys, and Spriggs could be that guy in 2016.

27. Jack Conklin, LT, Michigan State
Conklin decided to not attend the Senior Bowl and I believe it would have helped his draft status. He can play left and right tackle, and his run blocking skills are as solid as his pass blocking. He should rise as the draft approaches and the NFL line coaches get into Michigan State to work him out.

28. Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana State
Coaches paid a lot of attention to Butler during Senior Bowl week, and for good reason. He can play! At 6’4, 325, he has the ability to play in any front.

29. Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
Another in a long line of solid linebackers from Alabama. He can lineup in the NFL right now on the inside, call a defense, and take on the run game. Ezekiel Elliott told me no one ever hit him harder than Ragland. He came to the Senior Bowl to prove he could rush the passer from the outside linebacker spot.

30. Jonathan Bullard, DE, Florida
Three year production total included 142 tackles, 29 tackles for a loss, and 11 sacks. He appears to be able to play across the front. If he runs as fast as advertised at the Combine, he could move up the list.

31. Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
The TE class is shallow this year, but if your team needs a tight end this is the top choice. I do like Nick Vannett as my second choice, but Henry is the complete player. He can block and averaged 14 yards on 111 receptions in his career.

32. Vadal Alexander, OG, Louisiana State
I watched big Vadal all week at the Senior Bowl, and at times he looked like a man among boys. He can play tackle, but excels at guard. Any team looking to protect the midline pocket passer will love his skill set.

33. Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
An NFL left defensive end in a 4-3, or a 5-technique in a 3-4. He has pass rush skills. A one year wonder in some people’s eyes, but the tapes don’t lie, and 36 plays behind the line of scrimmage in 2015 tells the tale of a solid prospect.

34. Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
I may move him up when I get done watching enough of his games, but he was benched for a short period of time in 2015 and really is an OLB pass rusher.

35. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
Henry has been under the microscope since winning the Heisman, and his critics say he’s a front side power runner. There are teams that really like this type of runner. In the second round it will be hard for zone scheme teams to pass up a back like this.

36. Kendall Fuller, DB, Virginia Tech
Injury issues are part of the equation for Fuller, unfortunately. But he can play, and comes from an NFL family. His 2014 efforts would have made him a first round pick and his pro day, when he’s healthy, will go a long way towards putting him in the first round.

37. Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
A lot of people already have him high up in the first round. I talked to a few scouts who visit Clemson on a pretty regular basis, and they warned me to temper the excitement. The kid has coverage skills, but has never had an interception. More work to be done here.

38. Adolphus Washington, DE, Ohio State
I watched him a lot at the Senior Bowl. He has very good get off and really fits in a 4-3 scheme as a left end or tackle. He had some off the field issues, but may have answered them at the Senior Bowl during interviews with coaches and scout. He had 13 sacks and close to 30 tackles for a loss in college.

39. Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
There was a time when he was the top rated QB in the draft. So many teams are looking for that ‘future’ QB in the second and third rounds after they take care of their primary needs. His completion percentage is under 60%, but Michigan State throws a lot more balls down the field. He does have 70 touchdown passes in three seasons.

40. Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
Here’s a hybrid linebacker with safety skills, which means he can stay on the field for all three downs. He’s a 4-3 WLB with coverage skills to play in the slot, but also had 12 sacks in two seasons.

nittany ram wrote:

And scouts said I had the grace and savvy of a young Steve Dils at my pro day.

I thought the scout who said that WAS Steve Dils.

Sorry, but…he says that about everyone.

Cromwell and Avery are in.

So we know that along with Manumaleuna, they run a 2 TE offense.

InvaderRam wrote:

we’ll see, but while griffin may be an arrogant sob, there’s nothing to me that indicates he can’t mature as a person and become a better teammate and leader. and with repetitions i don’t see why he can’t improve his qb skills as well if he applies himself.

Tell you what. If they sign Griffin, and he proves to be a distraction or the guy being complained about in the stuff I posted, then, you owe the board a million dollars. Fair enough?

bnw wrote:

Amendola

good one…I also forgot Manumaleuna