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wvParticipant
wvParticipantLoot and Pollute. That is the GOP motto.
They don’t care because most of them are going to be dead when the shit hits the fan.
One of my idiot brothers spent his entire career as an attorney for oil corporations, starting with ARCO. Once, when I asked him about his son’s future on this eco-destroyed planet, he said, “That’s his problem.” And he loves his son, at least by all appearances. But, you know, he just subscribes to that “It’s all about me” philosophy.
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I visited 86-year-old wv-mom today. Rightwing-evangelical-fox-watching wv-mom. I brought here a national enquirer that had Hillary on the cover with the words “Corrupt Fascist” next to Hillary’s face.
So i asked mom, “I know you like Trump but…why?”
And of course first she said “Hillary is awful, i cant stand Hillary…blah Hillary Blah..”
Mom, i didnt ask about Hillary. Just leave Hillary out of it. You are a born again Christian — WHY do you like Donald Trump of all people?
“He gets things done. He’s a deal maker. Look at all he’s built”
Ok, well anything else to say?
“I was listening to one of Billy Graham’s sons saying that it would take a miracle to get Trump elected. A Miracle. And right then i knew we were going to see a Miracle.”
Really?
“Yes, Christians got him elected. They Fasted and prayed and the lord answered the prayers.”
Well did the lord get Obama elected?
“No-one FASTED for Obama. No-one prayed for a miracle when Obama got elected. Christians FASTED and PRAYED for Donald Trump. You know what i HATE — the media. Everytime those beautiful Trump children are on tv, the media says they all had different mothers”
Well mom, its true. Trump had three wives.
“Well the media doesn’t have to talk about it.”
I see.
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wvParticipantDon’t get me wrong. I fully expect Trump to be a disaster.
However, I’ve been trying to think of anything that may possibly come out of this that could be positive.
Sure.
Hillary lost.
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Ha. I knew someone would say that. Its true. No more Hillary. She can go make
speeches for a million dollars a pop now.w
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wvParticipantCourse as you know, Pa, its not just Trump — its Trump with a Repugnant Congress and a Repugnant Supreme Court. All three are now Repugnant.
So….something positive? …hmmmmm….
The only ray of hope…hope in the dark….is that all this will galvanize the Progressives. And we have to hope there are actually ‘enough’ real live progressives to make a difference.
Thats a lot of ‘hoping’ but thats all i got.Whats more likely is the DNC will blame everyone but themselves, and the DNC will ‘repackage’ the same ole sorry ass Democrat-Party, and we’ll get Eight years of the Donald and his ducks.
…eight years of Clinton…eight years of GW…eight years of Obama….now Trump….can the Biosphere survive much more of this human-insanity ? …and should we even root for humanity at this point? ooops, sorry…i forgot this was a silver-lining thread 🙂
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wvParticipantI’ve never seen that movie. I might have to watch that one.
Btw, there’s a lot of political parties in this here country:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016I may have to join the “Nutrition Party”.
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wvParticipant
wvParticipant=====================
The Big Splitby John Steppling
link:http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/11/10/the-big-split/
…Trump was the only guy (along with Ted Cruz) more repulsive to the public than Hillary Clinton. Which keeps reminding me of Mel Brooks’ The Producers.
Max Bialystock: How could this happen? I was so careful. I picked the wrong play, the wrong director, the wrong cast. Where did I go right?!!
Trump was the perfect wrong play, wrong director, wrong cast. And he won. Springtime for Hitler is a hit. But something happened during the last month of this election…
…Trump is not the answer, of course. He is the symptom. He is the symptom of the virus of neo liberal Capitalism…
…the Dems were arrogant, too. And inept. They ran a terrible campaign with one of the worst candidates ever to run for president. So, no, it wasn’t sexism or racism, it was anger at the status quo. An inarticulate anger, but still anger. The big mistake of liberals was to think Trump was bringing fascism, without realizing fascism was already here.
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wvParticipantAnother Trump appointee — another Goldman Sachs hack.
link:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-treasury-idUSKBN12Y25X
Republican Donald Trump wants his campaign finance chairman, Steven Mnuchin, to be his Treasury secretary if he wins next week’s U.S. presidential election, Fox Business Network reported on Thursday, citing sources.
Mnuchin, a former partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc who also founded and runs the hedge fund company Dune Capital Management LP, joined Trump’s campaign in May as his chief fundraiser.
wvParticipantlink:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/10/the-left-needs-a-new-populism-fast
“…Some American men feel emasculated by two factors: the demise of skilled secure jobs that gave them a sense of pride and status, and the rise of women’s and LGBT movements, which some men feel undermine their rightful dominance.
But there is a factor that cannot be ignored. Centrism, the ideology of self-styled moderates, is in a state of collapse. In the 1990s, the third way project championed by Bill Clinton and Tony Blair could claim political dominance in much of the US and Europe. It has shrivelled in the face of challenges from the resurgent populist right and new movements of the left…”
wvParticipantAl Jazeera
link:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/11/refuse-accept-election-results-161110093108400.htmlThe underbelly of the US is exposed for the whole world to see. Let the calamity of Trump do for the US at large what 9/11 failed to do, writes Dabashi [EPA]
By
Hamid Dabashi@HamidDabashi
Hamid Dabashi is the Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University.
William Faulkner, in his Banquet Speech at the City Hall in Stockholm, on December 10, 1950, on receiving the Nobel Prize in literature said: “Our tragedy today is a general and universal physical fear so long sustained by now that we can even bear it. There are no longer problems of the spirit. There is only the question: When will I be blown up?”
What in the world did he mean? “Blown up” by what? How?
If you lived through the endless night linking the fears of Tuesday evening of November 8 to the terror of the following Wednesday morning wondering how to explain Donald Trump’s victory to your children, you have a glimpse of what frightened Faulkner so many years ago so far from his homeland. But can we still ask serious, even frightening, questions, as Faulkner did, any more?
“Does America deserve to survive,” Faulkner asked in 1955 at the news of a vicious murder and mutilation of a young black boy.
Just before this nightmare descended upon us I read that a European philosopher had said that if he were an American he would have voted for Trump. “It will be a kind of big awakening,” he had said, “new political processes will be set in motion.”
Perhaps, I thought to myself, but this man for sure does not live in the United States. He does not have a child who goes to public school in New York. He has not struggled to calm the raw nerves of an eight-year-old boy who is scared all his Mexican friends will be rounded up and deported from the US.
The angry liberals
What will a Trump presidency mean for the US?So where would we stand between the gaudy and juvenile Stalinism of what today passes as “the European left” and the delusional liberalism now publicly stunned by Trump’s victory in the US?
Liberal America is right now flabbergasted, incredulous, violent, recriminatory. It now openly fears that it might be ruled as Chile was ruled by Augusto Pinochet, Iran by the Shah and the Ayatollahs, Egypt by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Russia by Vladimir Putin, Turkey by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Palestine by Benjamin Netanyahu. How dare history to even think to do to liberal America what liberal America has done to the world?
Recrimination, finger-wagging, and continuing to be deaf and blind to reason and logic have resumed apace among these angry liberals.
Diehard Clinton supporters are accusing those who as a matter of principle opposed her record of corruption and warmongering of having paved the way for Trump.
Many Bernie Sanders supporters, myself included, made a strategic choice not to vote for Clinton if we live in safe states like New York, where I live, and where she won, and vote for her in swing states such as Florida or Ohio, which they did and yet she still lost.
We the first targets of Trump’s xenophobic thuggery and dangerous delusions, we the Muslims, the Mexicans, the African-Americans, women, we are here at the forefront of defying Trump’s ignominy.
Liberal America refuses to recognise its dangerously delusional blinkers. The anger and violence they wanted safely deposited in Clinton’s White House to unleash on other countries is now launched on Sanders’ and Stein’s supporters who they falsely and conveniently blame for having denied them that treacherous peace of mind.
Their beloved Barack Obama gifted the Zionist settler colony $38bn in military expenditure over the next 10 years in a lovely liberal gesture to maim and murder more Palestinians, as would have Clinton in even more generous terms, were she to be elected.
OPINION: Why I will not vote in this US presidential election
That they don’t mind. But having Trump preside over their national destiny, that they will not tolerate.
The vulgarity of such accusations, however, is a diversionary tactic, consciously or unconsciously launched to pre-empt a far deeper soul-searching now necessary to hold and heal the soul of this nation.
Sanders and his supporters had been continuously warning against this outcome for months, when Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Donna Brazile, and the entire leadership of the Democratic Party came together to dismantle and sabotage his campaign, and send a deeply flawed candidate to face the monstrosity of Trump.
Bringing the US in the fold of humanityBut such recriminations, left or right, are at this point a waste of time and a distraction. Soul-searching yes, witch-hunt no.
There should be rethinking of the politics of race and gender, but not at the expense of suspending critical judgment on the global warmongering which Obama inherited from George W Bush and institutionalised chapter and verse, and which Clinton would have widely exacerbated.
There is no mystery to this result of choosing Trump over Clinton: This is almost the same population that over the past eight years twice elected an African-American to the White House.
US election: How Muslim Americans are dealing with Trump’s victoryWhat happened this year? In its jeremiad mourning for its favourite candidate even The New York Times had to admit what happened: “Democratic Party … attempted a Clinton restoration at a moment when the nation was impatient to escape the status quo.”
Sanders was the ready and riding answer to that historic call. But what did the Democratic establishment, The New York Times and Washington Post included, do to Sanders?
Trump is rightly seen as “a twisted caricature of every rotten reflex of the radical right”. But to fight this banality, we need to go far beyond useless recriminations and reach much deeper into the troubled heart of America itself: a racist, misogynist, ignorant, paranoid, xenophobic, white supremacist America. No liberal sugar-coating of these facts will wish them away.
OPINION: Donald Trump – The Islamophobia president
Faulkner thought “the basest of all things is to be afraid”. Then he daringly, defiantly and triumphantly declared: “I refuse to accept this. I believe that man will not merely endure: he will prevail.”
But how is that prevailing to occur? First and foremost, by collapsing the false binary between the safe inside and the troubled outside. The US militarism has just gone through two successive phases of two terms of Bush’s neoconservative and Obama’s neoliberal imperialism. It has left the earth in shattered chards.
The US will now need its most recent immigrants more than ever to help it learn how to survive this Trumpian calamity. We have been there: at the receiving end of the US-made Donald Trumps of the world.
We the tyrannised, we the abused, the dispossessed, the forsaken, we in need of US “humanitarian interventions”, we the refugees of wars US liberal imperialism has caused around the world, we the Palestinians, the Libyans, the Iraqis, the Afghans, the Latin Americans, the Africans, we are all here: Trump’s worse nightmare and battle-tested in fighting the bullies of the world.
We the first targets of Trump’s xenophobic thuggery and dangerous delusions, we the Muslims, the Mexicans, the African-Americans, women, we are here at the forefront of defying Trump’s ignominy.
Along with millions of other Americans, we the most recent immigrants are now safely home at the dangerous delusions of an angry mob of white supremacist zombies shielding its wild fantasies behind democratic politics.
The comfort zone of liberal fantasies of peace at home and warmongering abroad is now completely erased.
The underbelly of the US is exposed for the whole world to see. Let the calamity of Trump do for the US at large what 9/11 failed to do: to bring Americans back to the fold of humanity – with fear and trembling like everyone else, with insecurity fighting the indignity of an ignorant tyrant, seeking to secure a modicum of self-respect in the bewildered belly of this warring beast.
Hamid Dabashi is Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University in New York.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policies.
wvParticipantClimate change may be escalating so fast it could be ‘game over’, scientists warn #auspol
By Ian Johnston
New research suggests the Earth’s climate could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than thought, raising the spectre of an ‘apocalyptic side of bad’ temperature rise of more than 7C within a lifetime….
wvParticipantGlenn Greenwald on Brexit, Trump and the Democratz
link:https://theintercept.com/2016/11/09/democrats-trump-and-the-ongoing-dangerous-refusal-to-learn-the-lesson-of-brexit/“….Supporters of Brexit and Trump were continually maligned by the dominant media narrative (validly or otherwise) as primitive, stupid, racist, xenophobic, and irrational. In each case, journalists who spend all day chatting with one another on Twitter and congregating in exclusive social circles in national capitals — constantly re-affirming their own wisdom in an endless feedback loop — were certain of victory. Afterward, the elites whose entitlement to prevail was crushed devoted their energies to blaming everyone they could find except for themselves, while doubling down on their unbridled contempt for those who defied them, steadfastly refusing to examine what drove their insubordination.
The indisputable fact is that prevailing institutions of authority in the West, for decades, have relentlessly and with complete indifference stomped on the economic welfare and social security of hundreds of millions of people. While elite circles gorged themselves on globalism, free trade, Wall Street casino gambling, and endless wars (wars that enriched the perpetrators and sent the poorest and most marginalized to bear all their burdens), they completely ignored the victims of their gluttony, except when those victims piped up a bit too much — when they caused a ruckus — and were then scornfully condemned as troglodytes who were the deserved losers in the glorious, global game of meritocracy….” see link
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wvParticipantI dunno, wv.
He was the one who on Morning Joe, I believe, articulated Trump’s “rust belt strategy” and said Trump could win without Florida or North Carolina (which is true, we don’t have the full count, yet)
And he was full on for Bernie and stumped for Bernie and was one of the few who dared to caution about the rust belt issues.
There were lots of people who sold out to the Clintons. I dunno that I’d count Moore among them.
I could be wrong.
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Ok…well…uh…..nevermind then.I guess I’m still mad at him for trashing Nader and acting
like Obama was going to be a true progressive.w
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wvParticipantA billionaire won the election for Governor of WV yesterday.
Another ‘man of the people’.
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wvParticipantI don’t think that, Billy. I think X is onto something.
I live in Central Florida and the visceral hatred for the establishment is palpable. I KNEW Trump was going to win Florida WEEKS ago. It was so clear.
Last week, Trump would hold rallies and thousands would attend. Clinton held a rally north of Tampa without any of the big name surrogates…so no FLOTUS, no POTUS, no Joe Biden, no Katie Perry, etc. She drew LESS THAN 300. Are you kidding me? In the final week of one of the most contentious campaigns in our nation’s history in perhaps the most contested swing state…she couldn’t get 300 supporters to show up for a rally??? Really???
Lots of people in the rust belt and the deep south have been deeply impacted by NAFTA, CAFTA and other really horrible trade deals. I’ve talked with plenty of people, Dems, Reps and totally not political people at all who felt compelled to vote for Trump because they felt that if someone didn’t do something about these trade deals, their children would be part of a permanent underclass.
What the Dems failed to do is focus on the economy and the real issues. Hillary couldn’t because she believes in the very mechanisms that caused many of these ills and will cause further damage. And the Democratic political machine wasn’t willing to do what the RNC did and go hands off and let the people decide from day one.
Are there some racists who are Trump supporters? Yes. Have many racists used this to come out from cover and put their beliefs and behaviors on display? Yes.
Doesn’t change that the fights are the same as they were before and with the aging population, if the Republicans want to start a culture war with this aging, browning population, they really risk a severe swing to the left (which is what Susan Sarandon was talking about).
I get the alt-right concern and racist concerns and as someone with a trans child, I’m already reading stories of trans/gay hate crimes and people who are just being complete racist assholes. To say I’m concerned is an understatement. I’m IN this fight to the last cell of my body.
But it wouldn’t have been this way if the fucking Dems had actually believed in democracy in a real way. Yet another reason why my HATE for Clinton is REAL.
We have President Trump because she was too ambitious to allow for a fair fight that might have allowed for a President Sanders.
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I agree with prettymuch all of that.
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wvParticipantYup. Good points Mack.
I got a feelin I aint gonna be able to get health insurance
once Trump gets going. I was able to get it for the first time
under Obama. Course it didnt actually ‘cover’ anything. Still.
Ah well.w
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This reply was modified 9 years, 6 months ago by
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wvParticipantMichael Moore’s “Morning After To-Do List”
http://www.good.is/articles/moore-five-point-plan
Morning After To-Do List:
1. Take over the Democratic Party and return it to the people. They have failed us miserably.
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I’d like to kick him in the teeth right now.Michael Moore has had has nose so far up the Clintons butts for so long, i cant remember the last time he said anything intelligent. And HE says THEY failed us??
Gag me.
Rant over.
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wvParticipantHa. Yeah, some of us around here have been hoping for years
that Texas would secede from the Union and become the Nation Of Texas.
And take their electoral votes with them.w
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wvParticipantcan i say winter is coming?
or maybe it’s been here for awhile already, but a storm is a brewing i tell ya.
LOL. Hodor
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So how did it feel, guys, as you were listening to the vote counts come in,
and when Wisconsin and Michigan started turning toward Trump?I was listnin to NPR and all i could think about was the S.Court, Federal Judges (Obama appointed over 300) and environmental regulations.
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wvParticipantI think both candidates had acceptance and concession speeches already prepared before the election was called. She was probably too emotional early this morning to do anything but make the phone call to trump.
Could be. I just really didn’t buy it while I was hearing it.
But then again, maybe I’m just too biased.I did watch her speech and noticed that Bill didn’t look as if he was hit by a post election fling of an ash tray and Huma was Weinerless.
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I say he wasn’t born in the United States.
He was probly born in Floorida or somewhere foreign like that.
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wvParticipant“”””My guess is few people here will go out of their way to see it, but I think you should. Just watched it and it surprised me.
For most of this campaign, when I tuned in to see her, I found her to be rather wooden, with her shields up, mostly incapable of connecting on a human level with her audience. Too wonky, etc. Not really all that comfortable in her own skin, etc.
But this speech, which may be her last in public? She did connect. The crowd seemed to be really moved. Her tone was just right, IMO, and her words were gracious and, at least relative to her political peers, “classy.” If Clinton had been like this from the start, I think we might have had a different election result.”””
Many thought the same thing on Gore’s concession speech in 2000.
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I have a personal pet-peeve. I keep hearing over and over that Hillary Clinton is a “policy WONK”. Shes virtually ALWAYS painted as a real intellectual wonk.I dont see her that way at all. I see her as someone cultivating that particular image, and then more subtly cultivating an image of a “policy wonk who is trying hard to be more than that”.
I dont consider her an intellectual. I consider her a privileged, ambitious, politician who has access to a gazillion think-tanks full of pollsters, number-crunchers, propagandists, media experts, fashion consultants, and campaign co-ordinators.
I think she’s more of a ‘figurehead’ than a ‘Bill Walsh type’ in other words.
Just my opinion.
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wvParticipantI don’t mind if its politics by algorithm as long as its used by a candidate I think is better suited than the other guys. Campaign machinery and demographic targeting has always been part of a general election. But I’m in no mood to begin any type of argument over this election. Been doing that for a couple of years and I’m tired. I will say that I agree with parts and don’t agree with other stuff in the article. I do think we need to revisit the electoral college issue given the reason for it being part of our Constitution simply no longer exist. Would I feel that way if my chosen candidate lost the popular vote and won the electoral “college” vote? Probably not.
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The pollsters are usually right. They were almost all wrong this time. Why do u think that is?Do you think Bernie would have won?
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wvParticipantIdiot Joy Showland:
How You Lost The World:https://samkriss.com/2016/11/09/how-you-lost-the-world/“….Clinton strategists actively and deliberately abetted Trump at every stage of his rise through the Republican primaries, dignifying his candidacy with every statement of disapproval, because they thought that he was the enemy she had the best chance of beating. Clinton spent the final weeks of her campaign against a parody toddler obsessing over weird conspiracy theories, painting her opponent as a secret Russian agent. Clinton decided, as a vast country fumed bitterly for something different, anything, that she would actively court the approval of a few hundred policy wonks. Clinton all but outrightly told vast swathes of the American working classes that they were irrelevant, that she didn’t need them and they would be left behind by history, and then expected them to vote for her anyway. Clinton was playing at politics; it was a big and important game, but it could be fun too; it was entertainment, it was a play of personalities. Her campaign tried to reproduce the broad 500-channel swathe of TV: an intrigue-riddled prestige drama and a music video and the 24-hour news; they forgot that trashy reality shows always get the highest ratings.
Donald Trump is a fascist. We shouldn’t be afraid of the word: it’s simple and accurate, and his fascism is hardly unique; it’s just a suppurating outgrowth of the fascism that was already there. Still, this time it’s different. The fascisms of Europe in the 1920s and 30s, or east Asia in the 50s and 60s, or Latin America in the 70s and 80s were all the response of a capitalist order to the terrifying potency of an organised working class. Fascism is what capitalism does when it’s under threat, something always latent but extending in claws when it’s time to fight; it imitates mass movements while never really having the support of the masses. (In Germany, for instance, support for the Nazis was highest among the industrial haute bourgeoisie, and declined through every social stratum; look at Trump’s share of the voter per income band and see the same pattern. The workers didn’t vote for Trump, they just didn’t vote for Clinton either.) But today the organised working class is nowhere to be found. There’s no coherent left-wing movement actively endangering capitalism; the crisis facing the liberal-capitalist order is entirely internal. It’s grinding against its own contradictions, circling the globe to turn back against itself, smashing through its biological and ecological limits and finding nothing on the other side. This is the death spasm, a truly nihilist fascism, the fascism of a global system prickling for enemies to destroy but charging only against itself. There’s no silence in the final and total victory, just an endless war with only one side. It’s not entirely the case, as the slogan puts it, that the only thing capable of defeating the radical right is a radical left. The radical right will defeat itself, sooner or later, even if it’s at the cost of a few tens of millions of lives. We need a radical left so there can be any kind of fight at all.
About these ads”——
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This reply was modified 9 years, 6 months ago by
wv.
wvParticipantYeah, so far, Hillary has gotten the most actual Votes:
“…As of early Wednesday morning, Clinton had 58,909,774 total votes compared to Trump’s 58,864,233, according to CBS News and CNN. The tallies will continue to change but Clinton holds a 47.6 percent lead compared to Trump’s 47.5 percent.
Unlike the last two presidential elections, which saw current commander-in-chief Barack Obama win both the electoral college and the popular vote over Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney, there is a chance Trump could be the first to take the country’s highest political office without the popular vote since George W. Bush’s victory over Democrat Al Gore in 2000…”
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wvParticipantI’ve always thought that whatever it is that has made the uneducated white males so unhappy and full of what I see as hate is a complicated set of issues -not the least of which is the darkening face of America and a rapid change in our cultural and sociological values. But because it takes work to look at what the causes and answers might be most uneducated whites look for the most simple of answers and also look to others to blame besides themselves. And of course the biggest and easiest target is the government itself. Hence the overturn and throw em all out philosophy no matter what kind of creep carries the sword.
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This is an excerpt from the election diary article i posted. what do
You think?“……Hillary Clinton has completely rejected even the pretense of class-oriented politics, in favor of targeting discrete demographics of voters, sending coded messages through the color and cut of her pantsuits to suburban women in Philly suburbs and insurance brokers in Tallahassee. This is the politics of identity, where your working conditions are less important than where you shop and what you buy. There is no unifying message to her campaign. Instead there are thousands of messages, each individually tailored and targeted like those stalker ads on Google and Amazons. It’s politics by algorithm.
Meanwhile, Trump’s blue-collar voters are condemned by the liberal elites as neo-Nazis and Klan-like automatons. Over the last few weeks, MSDNC has devoted much attention to the imbecilic David Duke’s attempt to ride Trump’s coat-tails. Duke is polling at less than 5 percent among Republicans in his vainglorious run for the Senate in Louisiana. What about the Trump voters who reject Duke’s racist bilge? How do the Democrats explain them? They don’t even try. The American underclass, both black and white, those marginalized by globalization and a government that works only to further enrich the rich, are viewed by the Democrats’ leader as a collection of “deplorables” and “super-predators.”
The Democrats have totally surrendered to the logic of neoliberalism and the impoverished and pulverized victims of their policies must be blamed for their own pitiful condition. The poor will be fined for being poor. Where’s the long-term dividend in that cynical brand of politics?
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wvParticipantWell you were right about him winning, bnw. Gotta hand it to ya. You were right.
I dont agree on all the other stuff as you know. You already know what i think of Trump (and Clinton) so I see no point in repeating the same view for the one thousandth time.
We’ll see what happens. He’s got the power now.
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wvParticipantsome euro pean reaction
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Link:http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKBN1341K4By Noah Barkin | BERLIN
Back in May, when Donald’s Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election seemed the remotest of possibilities, a senior European official took to Twitter before a G7 summit in Tokyo to warn of a “horror scenario”.
Imagine, mused the official, if instead of Barack Obama, Francois Hollande, David Cameron and Matteo Renzi, next year’s meeting of the club of rich nations included Trump, Marine Le Pen, Boris Johnson and Beppe Grillo.
A month after Martin Selmayr, the head of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s cabinet made the comment, Britain shocked the world by voting to leave the European Union. Cameron stepped down as prime minister and Johnson – the former London mayor who helped swing Britons behind Brexit – became foreign minister.
Now, with Trump’s triumph over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, the populist tsunami that seemed outlandish a few months ago is becoming reality, and the consequences for Europe’s own political landscape are potentially huge.
In 2017, voters in the Netherlands, France and Germany – and possibly in Italy and Britain too – will vote in elections that could be coloured by the triumphs of Trump and Brexit, and the toxic politics that drove those campaigns.
The lessons will not be lost on continental Europe’s populist parties, who hailed Trump’s victory on Wednesday as a body blow for the political mainstream.
“Politics will never be the same,” said Geert Wilders of the far-right Dutch Freedom Party. “What happened in America can happen in Europe and the Netherlands as well.”
French National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen was similarly ebullient. “Today the United States, tomorrow France,” Le Pen, the father of the party’s leader Marine Le Pen, tweeted.
Daniela Schwarzer, director of research at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), said Trump’s bare-fisted tactics against his opponents and the media provided a model for populist European parties that have exercised comparative restraint on a continent that still remembers World War Two.
“The broken taboos, the extent of political conflict, the aggression that we’ve seen from Trump, this can widen the scope of what becomes thinkable in our own political culture,” Schwarzer said.
HUGE INFLUENCE
Early next month, Austrians will vote in a presidential election that could see Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party become the first far-right head of state to be freely elected in western Europe since 1945.
On the same day, a constitutional reform referendum on which Prime Minister Renzi has staked his future could upset the political order in Italy, pushing Grillo’s left-wing 5-Star movement closer to the reins of power.
“An epoch has gone up in flames,” Grillo said. “The real demagogues are the press, intellectuals, who are anchored to a world that no longer exists.”
Right-wing nationalists are already running governments in Poland and Hungary. In western Europe, the likelihood of a Trump figure taking power seems remote for now.
In Europe’s parliamentary democracies, traditional parties from the right and left have set aside historical rivalries, banding together to keep out the populists.
But the lesson from the Brexit vote is that parties do not have to be in government to shape the political debate, said Tina Fordham, chief global political analyst at Citi. She cited the anti-EU UK Independence Party which has just one seat in the Westminster parliament.
“UKIP did poorly in the last election but had a huge amount influence over the political dynamic in Britain,” Fordham said. “The combination of the Brexit campaign and Trump have absolutely changed the way campaigns are run.”
UKIP leader Nigel Farage hailed Trump’s victory on Wednesday as a “supersized Brexit”.
As new political movements emerge, traditional parties will find it increasingly difficult to form coalitions and hold them together.
In Spain, incumbent Mariano Rajoy was returned to power last week but only after two inconclusive elections in which voters fled his conservatives and their traditional rival on the left, the Socialists, for two new parties, Podemos and Ciudadanos.
After 10 months of political limbo, Rajoy finds himself atop a minority government that is expected to struggle to pass laws, implement reforms and plug holes in Spain’s public finances.
The virus of political fragility could spread next year from Spain to the Netherlands, where Wilders’s Freedom Party is neck-and-neck in opinion polls with Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberals.
For Rutte to stay in power after the election in March, he may be forced to consider novel, less-stable coalition options with an array of smaller parties, including the Greens.
WATERSHED MOMENT
In France, which has a presidential system, the chances of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, emerging victorious are seen as slim.
The odds-on favourite to win the presidential election next spring is Alain Juppe, a 71-year-old centrist with extensive experience in government who has tapped into a yearning for responsible leadership after a decade of disappointment from Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy.
But in a sign of Le Pen’s strength, polls show she will win more support than any other politician in the first round of the election. Even if she loses the second round run-off, as polls suggest, her performance is likely to be seen as a watershed moment for continental Europe’s far-right.
It could give her a powerful platform from which to fight the reforms that Juppe and his conservative rivals for the presidency are promising.
In Germany, where voters go to the polls next autumn, far-right parties have struggled to gain a foothold in the post-war era because of the dark history of the Nazis, but that too is changing.
Just three years old, the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), has become a force at the national level, unsettling Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, who have been punished in a series of regional votes because of her welcoming policy towards refugees.
Merkel could announce as early as next month that she plans to run for a fourth term, and if she does run, current polls suggest she would win.
But she would do so as a diminished figure in a country that is perhaps more divided than at any time in the post-war era. Even Merkel’s conservative sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union, has refused to endorse her.
(Additional reporting by Crispian Balmer in Rome, Anthony Deutsch in Amsterdam; editing by David Stamp)
After-
This reply was modified 9 years, 6 months ago by
wv.
wvParticipantBut it woulda been a dark day either way.
w
vNo, I’m sorry. But this is worse. Like, far worse. In fact I expect that soon enough I won’t even have to say that anymore.
…
Yep.
It would have been depressing to watch the Clintons gloat, and round up all the usual bankers to continue their incorporation of the planet, but…John Bolton. Good lord.
It is hard to think of this as anything less than apocalyptic. This is the end. Our “way of life” is now over. We are headed towards feudalism.
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…unless….the Left wakes up, organizes, gains power, and elects
a true progressive four years from now.Granted a lot of damage will have taken place. I get that. Believe me. Dark dark day.
w
v
wvParticipantBut it woulda been a dark day either way.
w
vNo, I’m sorry. But this is worse. Like, far worse. In fact I expect that soon enough I won’t even have to say that anymore.
…
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Well i know your view on that. I was expecting you to respond to that line of mine, with exactly what you did 🙂
You may be right.
But it may be more complicated than that. Depends on what the RESPONSE is to the Trump nightmare. So for me, only time will tell.
Having said that, yes, its a nightmare. The federal judge appointments and the S.Ct appointments ALONE will cause untold suffering. A climate-change-denier in office. An environmental-terrorist in office. Yes, dark day.
w
v -
This reply was modified 9 years, 6 months ago by
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