i give him two years with no major injuries to see what he can do. the rams got to make a decision soon whether fisher is that guy.

this roster. too talented at this point to let it go to waste. no more excuses.

…

barring major injuries of course…

zn wrote:

InvaderRam wrote:

what are the hit rates for offensive linemen by round?

just trying to figure out how difficult a task the rams face potentially starting two offensive linemen in 2015.

I actually calculated that once, but you can’t take it as strict. I just counted and estimated. However I think it’s more or less right.

===============

rough calculations… OL draft “hits,” different rounds
zn
May 11, 2015 at 11:24 pm

I looked at 2002-2011, because 2011 is far back enough to get a read, and back to 2002 covers a decade.

I wasn’t very detailed. Just flew in, got rough estimates, had a sandwich, flew out.

But the numbers should be pretty “more or less” good.

So. What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from rounds 6-7 ended up as “hits”? I am counting that as continuing starters.

I get 23 of 150. Just over 15%.

What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from rounds 4-5 ended up as “hits”?

I get 29 of 117. Just under 25%. There’s about 2 dozen more borderline guys after the first 29.

What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from round 3 ended up as “hits”?

I get 32 of 50. Just under 64%.

What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from round 2 ended up as “hits”?

I get 33 of 49. Just over 67%.

going by those numbers i actually feel a little bit better about the oline situation. just calculating odds of havenstein and brown being hits. chance should be around 40% or so. chances of any two of their rookie offensive linemen hitting i’m not too sure, but i’m guessing it’s around 50%. essentially a coin flip.

i’m so happy.

they did struggle in the beginning, but when fisher simplified things, the defense got better.

football outsiders had them ranked 9th in defense according to their little statistical analysis. they also do a statistical analysis that weights the later games more so that it reflects how they were doing toward the end of the season. they ranked 6th.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

i think with a ball control offense the defense will be even more effective.

i don’t see a seattle type elite defense yet. but i do see a top 5 defense that can take this team to the playoffs.

especially with san francisco fading.

that and the niners are falling apart.

yeah. donald strikes me as that rare type. elite athleticism. high level of maturity at a young age. super competitive.

if chris long does leave, donald becomes the leader of this defense. if he isn’t already.

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2015/5/29/8656893/2014-darta-a-good-sign-for-the-2015-st-louis-rams

A Top-Five Defense

The Rams gave up 354 points (22.1 ppg.) in the 2014 regular season. That put them in a tie for 16th in the NFL, an average result for the Rams defensively (at least on the surface). In reality, the Rams’ defense was much better than the rankings suggest. Total points allowed can be deceiving when determining the quality of a teams’ defense, especially if that team has an extremely high total of DARTA in a particular season. In the Rams’ case, the defense gave up only 284 points (17.8 ppg.) in 2014, putting them in the top half-dozen teams in the league in points allowed (when adjusted for DARTA). The Rams’ defense simply wasn’t on the field when the other 70 points were scored.

Five reasons the Rams’ defense should be even better in 2015:

Chris Long should be healthy and not miss a substantial part of the season.
Mark Barron will be with the Rams for the entire season.
The Rams didn’t lose a single starter from 2014 during the offseason.
The team added two quality, experienced players (Akeem Ayers and Nick Fairley) in Free Agency. Both should have a positive impact on the defense.
The unit now has an entire season under its collective belt in a Gregg Williams-led defense.

that’s awesome. definitely think he needs the binoculars.

a lot of things have to happen before this defense can be the best in the nfl.

but i find comfort in that i think the things that have to happen can happen.

but they also might not happen.

i gotta say. i went back and looked at some games from last season. didn’t realize how good mcdonald looked at times. there were game where he was just all over the place flying around. i’m encouraged.

wow. they must go through a lot of players…

Agamemnon wrote:

It is hard to say how much is true and how much is spin. I was always looking for offensive linemen. I want the offensive line to be the strongest unit. But, until last year, I couldn’t find any fault with how they drafted or spent money on the offensive line. If they had not traded up for Austion, they could have gotten a good guard in that draft. That is the only thing I wish they had done differently.

Last year and this, the draft fell for them to get offensive linemen and they did that. They tried to keep Barksdale and they had drafted Jones before. Even this year they drafted a RB first. I would have drafted Erving, but taking Gurley is a good gamble.

This year there was value in the draft that fit what Fisher wants on the Oline. And they took advantage of that. Me, I still want to add some high quality players in next years draft. Guys like Collins and Erving or another true LT prospect. But, the value will have to be there compared to other positions. They did get some continuity on the Oline as a result of the draft. That is very good and it is very had to do if you don’t do it through the draft. imo</span>

i completely agree, ag. you and i are on the same wavelength. be afraid! ha!

i think they had plans to draft offensive linemen at various times in the past several drafts. off the top of my head, they were interested in drafting warford. they were also in line to draft zack martin. and i know that at least in the case of martin, the only reason they didn’t draft him was the fact that donald fell down to their spot. and i can hardly blame them for drafting him over martin.

it’s all how the drafts unfolded. so i don’t necessarily know how disingenuous fisher is being.

i do disagree on one small point. i would have drafted gurley over erving. although it would have been a very tough decision.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 5 months ago by InvaderRam.

i gotta think foles is better than the davis hill combo of last year. combine that with a better running game at least on paper. i’m thinking they should at least be average rather than mediocre.

even with all the talk about gurley, i’m still excited about tre mason. this guy could have a spectacular season. especially if gurley missed the beginning of the season.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 5 months ago by InvaderRam.
• This reply was modified 9 years, 5 months ago by zn.

wv wrote:

Zooey wrote:

I will echo this.

And…let me just add…almost every fan of every single team is saying the same thing about their team. “These guys will be better this year because they have more experience.”

Well, I share the basic ‘wait and see’ mentality,
but i also have read that players ‘in general’
make a jump from year one to two. More so, than
other years. I think we’ve all read that.
So, i think its a reasonable ‘expectation’ even
though its not a sure thing.

w
v

i would also add that donald is one of those extremely rare high floor high ceiling players. he did come into the league more prepared than most. but this is also a guy with rare athleticism and even rarer work ethic.

so do i worry about a sophomore slump? yeah. but with donald i worry a lot less.

as opposed to a guy like ogletree. ya know. i’m just glad he hasn’t been arrested or suspended the last two years. a guy like him is more prone to that sophomore slump. guys like him you hope mature as they get older and eventually are able to put it all together.

with donald. no. i don’t really worry too much although it’s still possible that he regresses.

and i would also say that most units aren’t as young and as full of potential like this defense is. so while other fans might say the same things, i don’t think it’s as true as it is for this defense.

although. all that potential might just be potential and they might never realize it so yeah. it’s by no means a sure thing.

http://ramblinfan.com/2014/11/11/pro-football-focus-grading-top-st-louis-rams-performers-week-10/

Top “Back-Seven” Player – T.J. McDonald (+4.8)

McDonald was the best player on the field yesterday for either team, including Patrick Peterson and his lucky interceptions on horrendous Austin Davis’ throws. With Gregg Williams regularly using three-safety sets, Mark Barron and T.J. McDonald essentially took turns playing the nickel-linebacker role. While Barron was impressive in that spot, McDonald was dominant, finishing with eight tackles, seven defensive stops, and one sack.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/150526/t-j-mcdonald-carving-his-own-path

At 6-foot-2, 217 pounds, McDonald is the prototype of a Williams safety who can be a force near the line of scrimmage offering an additional hammer in the run game with emerging blitz skills. That McDonald wasn’t known for his coverage abilities didn’t figure to matter given Williams’ propensity for playing with a lot of single-high safety looks, a look that would generally feature McLeod on the back end.

True to that idea, McDonald spent much of the early part of the season near the line of scrimmage, defending the run and bringing the blitz. Through the Rams’ first eight games, McDonald had almost an identical split in snaps played in the run box (230) and snaps played on the back end (221).

What’s interesting, though, is how much more McDonald has been asked to do in coverage over the past three weeks. Although that lines up with the arrival of Mark Barron via trade, Barron has only been heavily involved in one of those games.

According to Pro Football Focus’ metrics, McDonald has played 144 of his 209 snaps over the past three weeks in coverage, which works out to about 69 percent. For what it’s worth, McDonald has earned his highest grades in coverage from PFF over that same span.