the first Stafford thread

[InvaderRam]

right now i’m thinking hey let’s see how stafford does with an actual running game.

maybe he has a carson palmer like resurgence toward the end of his career. he could potentially have another five years left in him.

also i feel sorry for goff. i wouldn’t wish the detroit lions on any player. he’s not gonna get much in the way of support with that organization.

[wv]

InvaderRam wrote:

maybe he has a carson palmer like resurgence toward the end of his career. he could potentially have another five years left in him.
.

=============

Maybe a Jim Plunkett resurgence.

Not a Joe Namath, though.

w
v

[Cal]

InvaderRam wrote:

right now i’m thinking hey let’s see how stafford does with an actual running game.

maybe he has a carson palmer like resurgence toward the end of his career. he could potentially have another five years left in him.

also i feel sorry for goff. i wouldn’t wish the detroit lions on any player. he’s not gonna get much in the way of support with that organization.

I posted this in the other thread, but I’ll repeat it here. The Lions have a lot of interesting talent on the offensive side of the ball including a first round LOT who they just extended, a former first round center who was second team all-pro this year, and their RT is an expensive free agent who started for Philly when they won the Super Bowl in 2017.

Ya know the Rams were a pathetic laughing stock until they bought in some talent and good coaching and weren’t anymore.

Even with that line, Stafford was sacked 38 times last year. Dude needs to learn throw the ball way.

[zn]

This is genuinely absurd man. You should not be able to rip 17-yard darts downfield NOT LOOKING at your target. pic.twitter.com/SBMivGGSnD

— Sosa K (@QBsMVP) January 31, 2021

[zn]

[zn]

“I would trade for Matthew Stafford before I would draft a QB in the top 10 this year.” @GregCosell explains why on latest @RossTuckerPod pic.twitter.com/smPiBSd2tI

— Ross Tucker Podcast (@RossTuckerPod) January 29, 2021

[zn]

AlbaNY_Ram

More about this: “2) Matt has never had a defense or a running game”

Detroit had a top 10 defense once in Stafford’s 12 year career. The Lions finished 11-5 that season.

The Lions have had a 100 yard rusher 11 times in his career. I can’t find the results for the last 2, but the first 9 times it happened the Lions were 8-1. https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/9iejpr/matthew_stafford_has_had_a_total_of_9_100yard/

edit: I looked up the other 2 games.

D’Andre swift got 116 yards against Jacksonville in week 6 this year and Detroit won 34-16.

And last year, week 4, Kerryon Johnson had 125 yards against KC but KC still won 34-30.

So 9-2 with a 100 yard rusher, 11-5 with a top 10 defense.

[wv]

Has Detroit been good at ‘anything’ in the last decade?
Wonder why they have sucked for so long
at so many things.

I guess we are gonna pay a little more attention
to them now that they are linked to the Rams
in a way.

w
v

[zn]

Highest passer rating under pressure:
1. Justin Herbert – 99.4
2. Matthew Stafford – 91.8
3. Russell Wilson – 88.2
4. Deshaun Watson – 87.7 pic.twitter.com/A8fDn652rs

— PFF (@PFF) February 1, 2021

[Cal]

I’ve watched 3 or 4 Lions game highlights on Youtube from the last couple of years just out of curiosity.

In those games (Bears 1st game, Colts, Saints) Stafford makes some back-breaking mistakes. He’s a guy who takes some bad sacks and throws some bad ints trying to make plays.

I don’t know if this Rams team with just a decent o-line and pretty good weapons is going to suddenly elevate Stafford to that top level of qbs. The idea that the Rams are a serious super bowl contender after this trade seems real iffy to me.

Stafford was on pace to have one of his best seasons last year before he missed the last half of the season. Stafford was on pace for 38 tds and 10 ints in his first year with Bevell, Russell Wilson’s old OC, as his OC.

Looking at this post season and the teams in the championships game, I wonder if having some dynamic players at the skill positions is essential today. The Chiefs have Hill, the Bucs have Evans & Godwin, the Bills have Diggs, and the Packers had Adams.

I don’t think the Rams have anyone close to that level.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Cal.

[InvaderRam]

bruce arians loves stafford. absolutely loves him. and he should know something about qbs.

could he be an isaac bruce? a great player stuck on a crappy team. until he fell into the right situation and helped the team win a superbowl? i hope so.

[Zooey]

[zn]

PARAM

The Rams have acquired established quarterbacks in their 30’s many times over the years. Starting way back in 1961, they got Zeke Bratkowski but he was primarily a backup before they got him, then a backup to Bart Starr after he left. He went 4-2 as a Ram starter.

Hadl 33 years old in 73. Namath 34 years old in 1977 (3-5 as a Ram), Bert Jones 31 in 1982 (2-4), Steve Bartkowski, 34 in 1986 (4-2). Dieter Brock wasn’t an established NFL QB but he was 34 in 1985 and went 11-4.

But Hadl was the one that compares most to Matt Stafford. He was 33, just like Stafford will be when he goes under center as a Ram for the first time. He started 122 games prior to his arrival. Stafford has started 165. He has 201 TD passes before he suited up for the Rams. Stafford has 282. And he had almost 27,000 yards passing leading the league (AFL) 3 times in that catagory. Stafford has 45109. But those numbers are aided by the changes in the NFL since 1973. Hadl was a prolific passer and so is Stafford. It will be interesting to see how he does in what is believed to be a good offensive system.[

[Billy_T]

IMO, this isn’t a question of who’s the better QB right now. It’s Stafford. But, also IMNSHO, the difference just isn’t enough to warrant what was given up for him. I’d also say that when Goff was playing well, he was as good as, or better than, Stafford. And that was basically for the Rams’ entire Super Bowl year and parts of all his other seasons.

Will Stafford upgrade and open up the offense? I’d bet on yes. But enough to lose Goff, and three draft picks, two of them being First Rounders? No. Not in a million years. They gave up enough to get an elite QB, DE, LT, Corner, etc. Top three, at least. That’s not Stafford. Stafford is good, not elite. And he’s not young. Give up a king’s ransom for a player, and he should be entering his prime, not looking at the back nine of his career, etc.

And the more we’re learning about the circumstances of this trade, the more it sounds like McVay’s idea all the way. So if it pans out, he rightfully gets credit. But if it doesn’t, we really don’t need to scramble around, trying to figure out who did what, etc. This is McVay’s baby — it appears — from start to finish.

Obviously, I hope he’s right about this.

[InvaderRam]

Billy_T wrote:

Will Stafford upgrade and open up the offense? I’d bet on yes. But enough to lose Goff, and three draft picks, two of them being First Rounders?

yeah. that’s what i’m wondering myself.

the way some people talk about him he’s the next brett favre.

we’ll see. it was a lot to give up.

i will say that some very respected football minds really do like him. bruce arians being one of them. that caught my attention. and apparently shanahan really wanted him too.

we’ll see.

[Billy_T]

InvaderRam wrote:

Billy_T wrote:

Will Stafford upgrade and open up the offense? I’d bet on yes. But enough to lose Goff, and three draft picks, two of them being First Rounders?

yeah. that’s what i’m wondering myself.

the way some people talk about him he’s the next brett favre.

we’ll see. it was a lot to give up.

i will say that some very respected football minds really do like him. bruce arians being one of them. that caught my attention. and apparently shanahan really wanted him too.

we’ll see.

Yeah, I’ve actually been surprised that this trade wasn’t universally condemned by all the pundits. It just strikes me, frankly, as nutz, but some folks who study the game for a livin’ like it, apparently. So, who knows?

Just more amateur GM stuff, I know, but was thinking about a different kind of move they could have tried:

Go after a much younger QB, like Justin Hebert, for that same package. Would the Chargers have done that? The kid is just a freak of nature, and played extremely well as a rook. A legit 6’6″, with sub-4.7 speed, big hands, solid athleticism, and an Academic all-American (biology) . . . the latter is a key for me.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda stuff. But I wonder if they at least considered that route. I would have greatly preferred it.

[Hram]

I think there is zero chance the Chargers would’ve given up Herbert for what we gave Detroit. I’m not sure the Chargers would do that trade for four first round draft picks.

If we get five good years out of what many considered to be a top 10-ish quarterback, then it is worth that draft capital. It will be interesting to see the length of the extension they gift stafford.

[Zooey]

The more I considered it over the weekend, the more I began to feel optimistic about this trade.

First, there’s Goff. Goff, even in the Super Bowl year, had holes in his game. But the offense was working, and he was a newbie, and it was okay that he had some growing to do. But…I don’t know that he really made any significant strides since then. The famous KC game was probably his high water mark. He has had some good efforts over the years, and I was among those defending Goff as “good enough.” OTOH, imo, he has not really continued to develop. In fact, looking back on this year, I have to say I think Goff has basically hit his ceiling. His “career year” may be ahead of him…but I think we have basically seen what Jared Goff is, and that is a serviceable QB who can sometimes make very good throws, and sometimes makes WTF throws. He is not a Creator. He does not fare well under pressure (partly due to limited mobility), but he can reattach a severed thumb between plays and keep going. He is not a backup guy. He’s a QB worthy of starting, but he is not exceptional, and never will be, imo. If he was going to emerge as one of the really good ones, he would be there now. He is five years in now. This is who he is. I’m going to guess that for the next couple of seasons, Goff is not going to look pretty, and everyone will be saying the Rams offloaded a stiff. But if the Lions get it together, he still has some bright days ahead of him.

Then there is Stafford. By most accounts, Stafford is better than Goff. The estimates range from “a bit better” to “a lot better.” PFF ranked him as the 12th best player in football in 2020. That’s 8th or 9th among QBs, but considering those guys ahead of him, you don’t see names above Stafford’s that are questionable QBs. He appears to have a stronger arm, greater football intelligence, and is more of a creator. We shall see.

So…what about the Rams? Well, this is a team that won a playoff game on the road against Seattle with a QB who has a broken and dislocated thumb, and just had surgery. It also had the #1 ranked defense. It wasn’t enough to get by GB, and the goal is to win it all. They have put together a lot of talent, all in its prime, and the time is Now. Right now, next season, and the season after that. It is time to go All In, right? If they don’t get there in this 2-3 year window, they are going to have to reload. So what do the Rams need to get to the next level? Well, they need a more productive offense. The quickest way to make the offense more efficient is to get a better QB. That just makes sense to me. If you can start a guy that is better than Jared Goff, then you start a guy who is better than Jared Goff. You do that right now because right now is the time to win. For whatever reasons, Goff just hasn’t taken a step to the next level. He just hasn’t. Stafford looks like he can elevate the offense. So you just do that, and then find a faster WR, bolster the OL, and go for it. That’s doable. So do it.

As for the price of Stafford, the more I thought about it, the more I became comfortable with it. As I’ve said before, not all 1st round picks are created equal. A lot of people treat them like a bag of Spanish doubloons, but the really valuable picks are in the top 7-10 picks typically. The Ram’s picks are going to be in the mid-to-late 20s where the guys chosen are rated in the same category with guys picked in the 2nd round. The picks are valuable, but the hit rate for 1st round picks is about 50%, and that includes the guys taken in the top 10. Plus future picks are less valuable than Now picks, so those two 1st rounders combined are not worth nearly as much as Carolina’s offer of this year’s #8. Detroit might get a quality starter out of those three picks, but it’s no sure thing.

If Stafford elevates the offense, and we see the Rams putting up points again…totally worth it.

Which leads to my last thought: McVay is now the guy on the watch list. He came in as Boy Wonder, and his offenses have deteriorated since his opening number. There are now some questions about the guy. He has just staked his credibility with the Rams on this one move. If Stafford delivers, he’s the man. If Stafford fizzles, McVay is going to follow Stafford out the door. This is a defining moment for McVay. He just put all his chips in the middle.

I find myself leaning IN to this trade now. I’m not sure, of course, because I haven’t watched Stafford play because why would anybody ever watch a Lions game, but I like what I’m reading and hearing from people who know more than I do.

This is it, though. This is a Super Bowl or Bust move, so I am pulling up my seat for next season already.

[InvaderRam]

Zooey wrote:

As for the price of Stafford, the more I thought about it, the more I became comfortable with it. As I’ve said before, not all 1st round picks are created equal. A lot of people treat them like a bag of Spanish doubloons, but the really valuable picks are in the top 7-10 picks typically. The Ram’s picks are going to be in the mid-to-late 20s where the guys chosen are rated in the same category with guys picked in the 2nd round.

true.

[Zooey]

InvaderRam wrote:

Zooey wrote:

As for the price of Stafford, the more I thought about it, the more I became comfortable with it. As I’ve said before, not all 1st round picks are created equal. A lot of people treat them like a bag of Spanish doubloons, but the really valuable picks are in the top 7-10 picks typically. The Ram’s picks are going to be in the mid-to-late 20s where the guys chosen are rated in the same category with guys picked in the 2nd round.

true.

Carolina offered the #8 pick.

According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, #8 is worth 1,400 points. Pick #26 is worth 700. So those two picks together are worth what Carolina offered.

See more in the SI article I just posted in the anchored Goff thread above. It’s an interesting read.

[zn]

Trade Talk: Lions expert breaks down what Rams are getting with Matthew Stafford

Cameron DaSilva

* https://theramswire.usatoday.com/lists/rams-lions-matthew-stafford-trade-analysis-breakdown/

The Los Angeles Rams kicked off the offseason with a massive trade, sending Jared Goff and draft picks to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford. After Goff struggled in Sean McVay’s system the last two seasons, the Rams made it clear that they wanted to upgrade at the most important position in sports.

While Stafford is older, he brings a different style of play to the quarterback spot. It’s hard not to get excited about the prospect of Stafford teaming up with McVay, but is this a perfect match without flaws?

We talked to Lions Wire managing editor Jeff Risdon about Stafford and gathered some intel on the Rams’ new quarterback. While he doesn’t pin the Lions’ lack of wins in the last 12 years on Stafford, he did point out some weaknesses in the QB’s game.

1
Aside from clearly having a big arm, what would you say is Stafford’s best trait?

His willingness to trust both that arm and the receivers he’s throwing at to make plays that other QBs won’t consider trying. It never allows the defense to relent because he’s proven he will throw it into an impossibly tiny window, or at least try.

2
There’s been an argument made that a good portion of Stafford’s numbers come in garbage time when the Lions are getting blown out. Is there any truth to that?

He earned the “Stat Padford” nickname early in his career with a certain segment of the Detroit media and it stuck even though he proved it was largely bullcrap. The fact is, he played on a lot of teams that had very bad defenses, especially during the Matt Patricia era. He’s playing from behind a lot more than the average QB.

Having said that, Stafford has always been prone to cold starts and streaks in games where he’s just “off.” Lions fans got used to him going something like 2-for-8, 27 yards, 1 INT in the second quarter of a game; things like that happen more with Stafford than they should for any QB.

The flip side? Stafford has proven himself to be amazing at rallying in the fourth quarter. He’s 7th in NFL history in 4th-quarter comebacks, tied with John Elway. He’s consistently been at his best with the team down two scores in the fourth quarter.

3
The Rams use a lot of play-action and rollouts. How does Stafford typically perform on those two play types?

He is not a good rollout passer. His ability to throw a strike to a moving target greatly diminishes if he’s also moving. If he can roll, stop and set himself to throw, he’s fine. He also tends to make the big mistake when he’s on the move, like he doesn’t see the field nearly as well. He is not a guy who will win with his legs on designed runs but he got better at tucking and running in the last few years, especially before the second broken back. He’s smart about it.

Play action, he’s phenomenal. When his RBs sell it well (and that hasn’t been the case often enough), Stafford is great at concealing the ball and then quickly identifying where the hole in the defense emerges. The Lions offense didn’t use it nearly enough.

One other quick quirk: He doesn’t like pre-snap motion, and he’s always had a preference to let the play clock drain way down before calling for the snap. It persisted through all his coaches. He made a comment when Darrell Bevell took over as the OC that he hoped “we’re not motioning guys everywhere” (paraphrased) and he meant it.

4
There’s about a 6% difference in Stafford’s completion rate from his first 6 seasons to his last 6 seasons. Has there been a notable change in his style of play?

It’s an oversimplification to say he played those first years with Calvin Johnson and then without him. As fabulous as Johnson was – he belongs in the Hall of Fame – he still led the NFL in drops in the decade from 2010-2019 two years after he retired, and he never had a good No. 2 receiver to pair him with. Stafford got more accurate and the confidence in his receivers spiked up when he had several capable receivers on any one play – guys like Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick out of the backfield, Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson the last couple of years.

5
How worried should the Rams be about Stafford’s 0-3 postseason record, and the fact that he only made the playoffs three times in 12 seasons?

Stafford played well enough to win in the 2014 season loss to the Cowboys, a game the Lions had absolutely stolen from them by an officiating controversy. He did not play well in the other playoff games.

As for the lack of team success, it’s very difficult to blame Stafford. He never had a good run game. Detroit had one 1,000-yard rusher in his 12-year career and finished in the bottom five in rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry more often than they didn’t. The defenses were often just as bad; I’ve been covering the NFL since 2004 and there is zero doubt in my mind the 2020 Lions were the worst-coordinated defense I’ve ever seen. The one year everything really came together for the team (2014) ironically was probably Stafford’s worst – not as good as his numbers might indicate.

His contract was an issue earlier on, that’s perhaps the most valid criticism or finger-pointing at Stafford. When the team had him, Ndamukong Suh and Calvin Johnson all together from 2012-2014, there was very little money to pay anyone else to help them. But that’s irrelevant to the Rams now.

[Zooey]

Streaky
Hates pre-snap motion
Doesn’t rollout well

Those are not awesome things.

[InvaderRam]

Zooey wrote:

Carolina offered the #8 pick.

According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, #8 is worth 1,400 points. Pick #26 is worth 700. So those two picks together are worth what Carolina offered.

See more in the SI article I just posted in the anchored Goff thread above. It’s an interesting read.

that was a good read. thanks.

yeah. assuming it goes the way the rams think it will, it’ll be more like goff and a high first rounder for stafford.

i really do worry about stafford though. to be frank i haven’t seen him play much. i do remember wanting him when he came out of college. out of this world cannon of an arm. but since he’s been in the league i haven’t really heard much about him. hasn’t won much of anything. that worries me. not the best analysis. he has been steady though for 12 years. hardly missed a game even though he gets little injuries here and there. been through multiple coaches and multiple systems, and he’s quietly put some huge numbers over the years.

huge mitts. 10″ hands…

and like that article says everyone who’s come into contact with stafford has nothing but positive things to say about him.

for me. he has to be substantially better than goff. like at least a full tier above goff. a full tier. and i’m not prepared to say that he is.

i also would like to see him play for the rams for at least 5 years. he’ll be 33 in 5 days, so that would put him at 37 years old in what would be his fifth year with the team. that’s definitely doable. and he could still be in his prime years. especially if they could do it at a cut rate salary.

but yeah. the trade is not as bad as it first seemed.

[InvaderRam]

best case scenario. rams get a gunslinger who forces defenses to defend the entire field because his arm is just that good. they can’t just take away the run and force the rams to pass. and if they try to take away the pass they’ll leave lanes open for the running backs to gash them.

i really hope they find an answer at center. and i hope whit comes back and can give them another solid year at left tackle.

and most of all. i hope mcvay can be self critical and not just talk about fixing his own deficiencies as a playcaller but actually work to fix them.

[joemad]

wv wrote:

Has Detroit been good at ‘anything’ in the last decade?
Wonder why they have sucked for so long
at so many things.

w
v

Detroit Tigers were a perennial playoff team in the 2010’s with Jim Leyland as manager. Justin Verlander was one of the league’s best pitchers

They made the WS 2012 and were favored to win, but the Giants beat them in 5 games….

Pablo Sandoval hit 3 HR’s in a WS game… only Ruth, Jackson and I think Pujols have done that.

2 of the 3 HR’s came off Justin Verlander

[zn]

Zooey wrote:

See more in the SI article I just posted in the anchored Goff thread above. It’s an interesting read.

Yes that’s without question the best article on the trade.

It doesn’t have Goff’d perspective but Silver covers that.

[zn]

Spider2YB

Matt Stafford is one of the top 5 most physically gifted QBs in the NFL. His arm talent is only rivaled by Mahomes and Rodgers. He can make every single throw ever invented by an OC. Opposite hash deep outs. Deep posts. Deep digs. 18 to 16 opposite hash comebacks. Literally *every single throw*. But I think the most encouraging signs over the last couple days is that when the media has talked to his former teammates, 99% of them just talk about his toughness. They talk about his leadership. Even though his physical ability jumps off the screen, they’ve celebrated the other stuff.

[zn]

Arians Enjoys Watching Stafford Warm Up: ‘Because He’s So Special

Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians believes Matthew Stafford deserves more accolades.

https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/arians-enjoys-watching-stafford-warm-up

John Maakaron

Across the National Football League, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has earned the respect of many head coaches and players.

During his Tuesday media session, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians took the time to explain why Stafford is a special quarterback and is a player he enjoys watching during pregame warm-ups.

“He’s one of my all-time favorite guys. He’s tough as nails,” Arians said. “Like I said the other day, he’s one of the few quarterbacks I like going out and watching warm up, just to watch him throw because he’s so special.

“Always felt like he was extremely, one of the top four or five guys in this league for a long time. He’s tough as nails, and his guys know it. They know he’s gonna suck it up for ’em.”

Despite widespread favor across the league, Stafford does not garner much attention in MVP or Pro Bowl talks.

Stafford has only been voted onto the Pro Bowl roster on one occasion in his 12-year career.

“I think same old story is winning, you know?” Arians said. “You can be a great player, (but) if your team’s not winning, you’re not going to get what you deserve — and he deserves a lot.”

[InvaderRam]

zn wrote:

Across the National Football League, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has earned the respect of many head coaches and players.

During his Tuesday media session, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians took the time to explain why Stafford is a special quarterback and is a player he enjoys watching during pregame warm-ups.

“He’s one of my all-time favorite guys. He’s tough as nails,” Arians said. “Like I said the other day, he’s one of the few quarterbacks I like going out and watching warm up, just to watch him throw because he’s so special.

“Always felt like he was extremely, one of the top four or five guys in this league for a long time. He’s tough as nails, and his guys know it. They know he’s gonna suck it up for ’em.”

Despite widespread favor across the league, Stafford does not garner much attention in MVP or Pro Bowl talks.

Stafford has only been voted onto the Pro Bowl roster on one occasion in his 12-year career.

“I think same old story is winning, you know?” Arians said. “You can be a great player, (but) if your team’s not winning, you’re not going to get what you deserve — and he deserves a lot.”

yeah that’s the article.

that made me raise my eyebrow a little bit. if arians says it, i’m interested.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by InvaderRam.

[zn]

I watched, with my own eyes Matthew Stafford play with:
Broken finger
Torn throwing hand ligaments
Broken/cracked ribs
Separated shoulder
MCL Injury

Physically as tough as they come. Mentally-tougher. No one can question that. https://t.co/hZV16W0xqN

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) February 4, 2021

[Author]

Posts