Wild Card Predictions

PFT’s wild-card picks

Mike Florio

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/07/pfts-wild-card-picks-5/

Chiefs at Texans

MDS’s take: The Texans’ season started with a loss to the Chiefs in which coach Bill O’Brien botched the quarterback situation by pulling Brian Hoyer for Ryan Mallett. That set the team back, but O’Brien deserves a lot of credit for the way his team held it together late in the year after Hoyer was hurt and they had to play T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden.

But I think Andy Reid deserves even more credit for the way he kept his team going after the injury to Jamaal Charles. In fact, the Chiefs have arguably the NFL’s best running attack, which is incredible given how important Charles was thought to be to the offense. I think it’s going to be that running game, led by Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, that controls the game and gives the Chiefs a hard-fought win.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 23, Texans 20.

Florio’s take: The Chiefs have won 10 in a row. The only win not in that streak came in Week One, when Kansas City plastered the Texans in Houston. And so the reasonable conclusion is that it will happen again. But that was 17 weeks ago, and long regular-season winning streaks only add pressure at this point. The Texans have the home-field advantage and a chip on their shoulder.

The Chiefs vividly recall the collapse in Indy from two years ago, and they carry the burden of being expected to win. It all adds up to the supposedly inferior team, sparking by a pregame frenzy that looks like a KISS concert, advancing to the next round. They may not get any farther, but that’s a matter to be addressed next week.

Florio’s pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 20.
———-
Steelers at Bengals

MDS’s take: If Andy Dalton were healthy for this game, I’d pick the Bengals and I wouldn’t think twice about it: Yes, Dalton has struggled in the postseason, but he was off to an excellent start this season before suffering a thumb injury. Unfortunately for the Bengals, it looks like Dalton will sit and AJ McCarron will start.

That’s a rough break, as McCarron did not play well in the Bengals’ loss to the Steelers in December. I expect McCarron to struggle and Ben Roethlisberger to play well, as the Bengals lose yet another wild card game.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 28, Bengals 20.

Florio’s take: It’s Round Three between the Steelers and the Bengals, just like 10 years ago. That time, the Steelers knocked out quarterback Carson Palmer on the home team’s first play from scrimmage, paving the way for a win. This time, the Steelers already have dispensed with Andy Dalton, who broke a thumb while making a tackle after an interception.

While the “nothing to lose” mentality could help the Bengals and backup A.J. McCarron, the Steelers already have spent a week staring into the abyss of having their season end after not going all out in Baltimore. On Saturday night, Pittsburgh throws Cincinnati into the pit.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 20.
———–
Seahawks at Vikings

MDS’s take: With the way the Seahawks are playing lately, the Vikings may come to regret beating the Packers to win the NFC North. Russell Wilson has been the best quarterback in football over the second half of the season, and Seattle’s defense was ferocious in shutting down the Cardinals’ offense in Week 17.

The Vikings, meanwhile, aren’t getting much out of their passing game, as Teddy Bridgewater threw just 14 touchdowns, by far the fewest of any quarterback who started all 16 games this season. Adrian Peterson is the league’s leading rusher, but I think the Seahawks’ front can hold him in check and the Seahawks’ secondary can shut down the Vikings’ receivers. This game won’t be close.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 30, Vikings 17.

Florio’s take: The Seahawks destroyed the Vikings when the two teams last got together, with a 38-7 trouncing. But for a late-game kickoff return (featuring 50 yards of high stepping from Cordarrelle Patterson), it would have been a shutout. So why would it be any different now? Intensely cold weather could flatten out the talent gap. So maybe the Seahawks only win by 16 this time.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 30, Vikings 14.
———-
Packers at Redskins

MDS’s take: Washington is on a roll heading into the playoffs, with Kirk Cousins playing his best football, while Green Bay is stumbling with Aaron Rodgers struggling as much as he has in years. And yet I’m going to pick the Packers. I think Rodgers is ready for a big game against a suspect Washington secondary, and I’m betting on the Packers’ strong pass defense to give Cousins a rough outing.

MDS’s pick: Packers 24, Redskins 20.

Florio’s take: The Redskins are much better than anyone expected them to be. The Packers are worse. Much, much worse. Despite winning 10 games, the Packers have gone 4-6 since starting 6-0. So should it be a surprise if Washington finds a way to beat Green Bay? And would it be a surprise if up-and-coming quarterback Kirk Cousins outplays Aaron Rodgers, who for whatever reason isn’t the guy he has been for most of his career? Not for me.

Florio’s pick: Redskins 26, Packers 24.

I will probably watch Packers/Washington.

I have other things going on or I would watch an AFC game.

Seen enough of Seattle to wait till next week.

Eternal Ramnation wrote:

If you want to go , they can’t give the tickets away,nobody wants to sit in the cold for 3 hours.

Yeah, for that, better off just seeing The Revenant.

Holy Meltdown, Batman.

That was ugly, stupid, dumb, embarrassing, foolish and uncalled for.

IF, the Rams of the future lose a game by stupid penalties, I’m probly not gonna get too too mad at them anymore. Cause I have tonight’s game to look back on, and understand that no matter how bad things are, there’s always someone else worse off.

Bengals set a new standard of ineptitude tonight, and in grabbing a loss out of the jaws of victory.

• This reply was modified 8 years, 10 months ago by NERam.

Well the Burfict hit was just
one of those bang-bang plays. They happen,
when yer flyin around out there.

I disagree about the Burfict hit. He was head-hunting.

wv wrote:

nittany ram wrote:

Well the Burfict hit was just
one of those bang-bang plays. They happen,
when yer flyin around out there.

I disagree about the Burfict hit. He was head-hunting.

Well what makes you think that?

w
v

http://nesn.com/2016/01/vontaze-burficts-brutal-hit-leads-to-flag-steelers-beat-bengals-video/

To me, when I watch the video it is apparent that Burfict could have held up. He also lowers his shoulder and appears to target the head of the receiver.

• This reply was modified 8 years, 10 months ago by nittany ram.
• This reply was modified 8 years, 10 months ago by nittany ram.

I dunno. I dont think it was
much different than the hit by
the Ram DB on the Viking QB.
I think its a penalty for sure
but I suspect its one of those split-second
micro ‘decisions’ thats not really a decision,
exactly. Just instinct. Competitive instinct.

Still its a penalty for sure. Coulda
killed the guy.

That one will be shown in meetings for
decades. What not to do.

w
v

Agamemnon wrote:

Intent, that is subjective, right? Don’t make me write a passive construction.

Well ‘intent’ is a concept full of nuances.
There’s “heat of passion” intent where you hit
the gardener in the head with a lamp. (discovering your
spouse in bed with the gardener)
And then there’s the kind of deliberate intent
where you slowly poison the gardener over
a period of months.

I know Burfect ‘intended’ to hit the WR,
but i think it was one of the split-second
‘micro-intent’ things. Its tough to coach that
out of DBs. The league is trying though.
But there’s always gonna be hits like that
from time to time — that one was really
bad, but so was the the hit by McCleod,
i think it was, on the sideline last year.
He almost kilt the guy.

I just dont know that I’d call the McCleod
hit much different from the Burfect hit.
McCleod didnt hit the guy in the head,
but it was still a dangerous hit on a
defenseless player. I dunno. Tricky stuff.

My sister’s family lives in Cincy. They
blame everything on Marvin Lewis.

w
v

nittany ram wrote:

Well the Burfict hit was just
one of those bang-bang plays. They happen,
when yer flyin around out there.

I disagree about the Burfict hit. He was head-hunting.

I agree with this. It really looked to me as if Burfict had an opportunity to pull up, but chose not to. The hit on Bridgewater when he slid looked more to me like the DB had already started the move to hit when the QB went into the slide. Plus, the Minny QB was a ball carrier, the Steeler receiver had missed the catch. Another opportunity for Burfict to pull up from delivering an unnessecary hit. The guy was not a ball carrier.

But that hit wasn’t all of it, it was a combined meltdown of the Bengals that I was referring to. Fumble, very bad. Agree with you WV, you just can’t lose the ball there. Hold it, and you win. Geeze.

So then, you fumble, then you get the stupid Burfict hit, and THEN, you have Pacman Jones pushing a ref. Instead of leaving the Steelers with 22 seconds and no timeouts from a very long FG distance, you move them into a chip shot FG. That to me is the stupid part.

zn wrote:

I see that the Vikings handed back an unwanted win to Seattle.

It all comes down to making plays. Or, making them when you need them.

I am the one who came up with that cliche btw…so you heard it here first.

I was disappointed those two teams
didnt go into 47 overtimes with
both collapsing of physical exhaustion
and spiritual and existential ennui,
each player, giving up football
forever.

The Vikings have never been known
for winning the big game have they.

w
v

Word on Green Bay is that they not only miss Nelson, their OL has been very banged up. When guys are not out, they’re playing with injuries, and it looks out of sync. It’s like the 2014 Rams in that regard.

Washington, on the other hand, relies on its OL as a team strength, and their line is pretty healthy.

It’s the old story, and it’s why Cousins looks good and Rodgers doesn’t.

wv wrote:

Point taken though. Earlier
in the year folks were arguing
that A.Rogers THE greatest QB of ALL TIME.
Not so much this last month.

He stepped up this game though, and so did the GB OL. Cousins didn’t.