Stephon Gilmore? and/or Tyrann Mathieu? updated: Gillmore signs w/ Colts

The Rams are a month into free agency, and the 2022 NFL Draft is just over two weeks away. Where are their priorities now, and what can we expect from the team through a period that is quiet on the outside, but bustling with activity internally?

After a little digging over the past few weeks, here’s some of what I have learned:

• The Rams have been attached to many big-name free agents over the past several years as they’ve executed their high-stakes “picks for players” trades, and also brought in core veterans via free agency with patterned success. Their interest was most recently connected to inside linebacker Bobby Wagner in early March (as initially reported by The Athletic), who ultimately visited and then signed with the team.

Similarly, the Rams have been connected to two of the higher-profile players still available in free agency: safety Tyrann Mathieu (who was most recently with Kansas City), and cornerback Stephon Gilmore (most recently in Carolina).

The Rams have been in contact with Gilmore this offseason, a source said. If signed, Gilmore would occupy the outside cornerback role opposite Jalen Ramsey. If and when Ramsey moves into the “Star” position, either Robert Rochell or David Long Jr. can play the other outside spot (I also expect the Rams to draft a cornerback).

Meanwhile, I have not gotten the sense that the Rams front office has so far had developing conversations with Mathieu. This does not rule out current mutual interest or future interest from the team in Mathieu, but it does make the Rams’ priorities more clear in the short term. In the Rams’ defensive scheme, Mathieu could occupy a traditional safety role with the ability to play the “Star” position.

The Rams would certainly be interested in bringing in either, or even both, players — but the important catch here is that they couldn’t pay anywhere near standard salaries if they did have the opportunity to sign both players. Even in signing one of the two, the Rams’ number would be much lower than the expected number either player initially hit the free agency market with. Any one player who now joins the team by any means other than a trade would likely have to agree to a lower-than-expected salary at least in the short term, and that includes both Mathieu and Gilmore.

• There’s a pretty small chance the Rams sign anybody else until after the draft as it is. In the week afterward, newly signed players no longer affect the compensatory pick formula. The Rams depend on that formula to add picks, because they’ve often traded away higher-round picks for proven veteran players. I think it’s very fair to assume the Rams will always be interested in adding high-caliber players by whatever means necessary, but it’s important to weigh all of the aforementioned factors together simultaneously into the Rams’ offseason calculus.

• There has been some speculation by fans of the team that, due to the addition of Wagner, the Rams will make large-scale philosophical changes to their defense just two seasons after switching it under Brandon Staley. This simply isn’t true, although parts of their defense will certainly change in reaction to how teams countered it last season and what the coaching staff expects those counters to be in 2022.

The Rams signed Wagner because of the chance to add Wagner specifically, not necessarily a scheme-altering inside linebacker. They would have needed another player to step in alongside second-year starter Ernest Jones regardless because they did not extend Troy Reeder. While tendering restricted free agent linebacker Travin Howard was a priority for the team, having Wagner become that player over Howard was certainly an opportunity the Rams wanted to take. Adding his leadership qualities and future Hall of Fame ability to direct the defense further moved the team in expressing their mutual interest in signing him. Wagner’s contract does not reflect a holistic defensive shift (nor does it totally reflect a long-term financial shift as the Rams haven’t historically invested in the position).

Wagner’s deal has a five-year framework, but it’s flexible for both team and player, a source said. The “functional” part of the contract is a two-year deal worth $17.5 million with up to $23.5 million more in earning potential via incentives and $10 million in guaranteed money ($6.5 million in cash the first year with just a $2.5 million cap hit). It also allows for a renegotiation between the player and team after the first two seasons. Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald recently told The Athletic that he believed it to be a pretty good deal for both sides (impressive, considering Wagner negotiated it himself).

Through conversations with Rams personnel over the last few weeks, I believe that while the defense will look a bit different this season (just as it did from 2020-21), we’ll definitely see schematic tweaks and different evolutions or removal of certain concepts. This could manifest in more 4-2-5 (obviously with outside linebackers, not defensive ends up front), but they still want to find a way to utilize their 5-1 fronts and that could mean at times moving Wagner or Jones up to the line of scrimmage, or spelling one of them. Further, they particularly found success late in the year with a three-man front composed of Aaron Donald, Greg Gaines and A’Shawn Robinson and that’s something they’ll continue to explore, among other avenues. The point here is that they’ll continue to be multiple; it’s no longer accurate to confine them to a “base” (although they’re most often in nickel, and although they have outside linebackers and not defensive ends) and more accurate instead to categorize them within a philosophy. In that sense, their Vic Fangio/Staley philosophy becomes a Fangio/Staley/Raheem Morris philosophy in 2022.

• Meanwhile, it remains the top priority of the team to get star defensive lineman Aaron Donald’s contract done this spring. At the NFL’s league meetings in late March, Rams executive Tony Pastoors expressed positivity in the timeline for Donald’s deal, especially within the context of the last go-round that took 18 months and a holdout. Pastoors does not believe that will happen on this deal.

“I think the dialogue we’ve had to date with Aaron and his representation has been nothing but positive,” Pastoors said. “I think we all have the same goal: find a suitable solution, and make sure he’s wearing a Rams uniform next fall. I think it’s just figuring out how that looks and what that means. … I would say things are feeling much better than I did the last time around.”

Also an expressed priority for the Rams: Working through a new contract for receiver Cooper Kupp, who led the NFL in receiving yards, touchdowns and catches last season.

It’s very early in that process for Kupp, who has posted on Instagram that he’s been working out separately at the team’s facilities this spring. Head coach Sean McVay said at the league meetings that the Rams and Kupp’s agent (Ryan Tollner) have had “good dialogue” about reworking his deal, but other sources indicated at that time that it was still quite early in a process which both sides hope works out smoothly.

Kupp, 29, has two years left on his current deal, and his cap number for 2022 is $18.675 million (with a $15.75 million average over the next two years). In light of this offseason’s inflated receiver market, that number puts him at No. 16 in average annual salary among the rest of the league’s receivers, and well below the top earners in guaranteed money.

As previously written, Rams executives have not gotten the impression from Kupp’s camp that he’s looking to top the pay charts. But, they also believe a pay bump with an extension is a way to reward him for his work during their Super Bowl-winning season (and adding years to his current deal will help spread out that money while also securing Kupp for the long term) and makes more sense than a restructure.

“I would love to do an extension,” Pastoors said at the league meetings. “I think we’ve done it before, right? (Former Rams receiver Robert Woods) is a great example of that. Get the contract right, add a couple years. We have recent history, a recent blueprint of how to do that and I’m hopeful we sort out Aaron, then take care of Cooper as well.”

My expectation is that both of these items pick up momentum post-draft, as offseason programming gets underway.