Rams internal FAs & contract issues (updated w/ big article]

There was a lot of buzz about quarterbacks last week in Indianapolis during the annual scouting combine, and the upcoming extension for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford wasn’t excluded in that chatter.

Stafford, as reported earlier this week, is facing a range of contract possibilities (financial and structural) that will be important to the Rams’ hopes of “running it back,” their roster build and even the future of head coach Sean McVay.

While Stafford’s contract extension is a priority — as re-affirmed by McVay and general manager Les Snead publicly, and by multiple team and league sources privately — that doesn’t mean there’s a rush to get it done as free agency begins. Its basic outline is important to know as the Rams make decisions on upcoming free agents, but those signings will almost certainly happen in quicker order than Stafford’s eventual terms. The Rams will also continue to work on a new contract for star defensive tackle Aaron Donald, whose longer-term future is still murky despite the current impression held by many within the team that he will return (Donald did also post the hashtag “run it back” under an Instagram photo on Wednesday, but I don’t hold too much stock in social media sentiments at this time of year).

Intersecting at the highest section of “priority” and “sequential order” as free agency opens next week are the deals of outside linebacker Von Miller and receiver Odell Beckham Jr., both of whom the Rams acquired in 2021. Both became crucial players to the Rams during their Super Bowl run. Miller’s deal will have an effect on Donald’s ultimate decision/financial structure, as did the retention of defensive line coach Eric Henderson and McVay’s own commitment to coaching after a bit of wooing from television executives last month.

My current sense is that the Rams are confident that the contract they’ll offer Miller, which could range from $14 million to $16 million per year, possibly over a two-year span, and which doesn’t seem to have a hard ceiling as of this publication, will be enough to convince him to stay despite reports of other interested suitors. Miller has also expressed sentiments/hints on social media about his interest in returning to Denver, where he played the entirety of his career before getting traded to Los Angeles. Still, the Rams have felt a mutual and consistent commitment with Miller since they traded for him in November — expecting even at that time that they’d ultimately do a multiyear extension with him regardless of the results of the season (and that feeling has continued, including through this week’s quarterback movement involving the Broncos).

Things could always change if the money isn’t right; currently my impression is that the Rams are very much interested in making the money right and hope to move quickly in the coming days to re-sign Miller.

There also is a sense that the Rams will be able to get a deal done with Beckham, despite the ACL injury he suffered in the Super Bowl clouding some of his future. Similar to Miller, the Rams were committed to Beckham when they acquired him in November and that didn’t change after the injury. Beckham has also expressed his desire to return. My understanding is there is some flexibility available with such a deal in that it could be anything from a one-year contract with a hard number or something over multiple years with a range of post-recovery projections factored in for compensation.

If either player ultimately opts to sign elsewhere the Rams will expect to receive a compensatory pick. If the Rams can’t re-sign Miller, they’ll have to target another edge-rusher (Chandler Jones and Haason Reddick are also about to hit free agency).

Regarding the rest of the Rams’ free agency class, you’re going to see a lot of chatter over the next five to 10 days or so … I beg of you, keep some context in mind as you do. In many of these scenarios, multiple things will be true at the same time, and situations can change quickly. Let’s get into it:

Likely to stay (non-Miller, non-Beckham candidates)

• Center Brian Allen. The coaching staff is bullish on Allen, who got ahold of the starting job after the first week in pads in training camp, and didn’t let go (and ultimately earned Pro Bowl alternate votes for the first time in his career). I also hear that Stafford really likes working with Allen. The Rams have let offensive linemen (including former centers) walk in the past, but my sense on Allen’s situation is that if they’re able to come to an agreement on a deal worth $4 million to $6 million per year, they will do so. Other teams may be wary of Allen’s injury history and size, both of which the Rams are very familiar (and the former of which they managed well this season).

• Inside linebacker Travin Howard, kicker Matt Gay (restricted free agents). Howard showed up in crucial moments, especially through the Rams’ postseason run, and Gay made the Pro Bowl (and made 32 of 34 regular-season field goals plus 8 of 10 postseason field goals, including two game-winners). The Rams are interested in retaining both players.

• Tight end Johnny Mundt. With former position coach Wes Phillips now in Minnesota, Mundt, who missed almost all of 2021 with a torn ACL, does bear watching but it seems likely he’ll be back with the Rams on a veteran minimum deal, or close to it.

• Return specialist Brandon Powell. The Rams are hopeful they can get Powell back on a team-friendly deal after he provided a massive spark to their special teams unit in 2021.

Cornerback Dont’e Deayon (UFA) is also a likely candidates to be retained by the Rams, although Deayon’s strong play through the middle of the season may mean he draws interest from other teams.

Likely to leave 

• Defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day. Joseph-Day suffered a torn pectoral in 2021 that sidelined him for most of the season (he returned in time for the Super Bowl), but when healthy the former sixth-round pick matured into one of the NFL’s best run defenders and certainly one of its best overall nose tackles. Joseph-Day is probably one of the most appealing available players at this position who is about to enter free agency, and because the Rams are going to re-work Donald’s contract, want to pay Miller, are paying Leonard Floyd plus still have Greg Gaines under contract, are developing Marquise Copeland and Bobby Brown and may even dip into the draft at this position again this spring, they probably won’t be able to afford Joseph-Day. He would also factor into their compensatory pick formula, a large piece of their team-build in its current form.

• Cornerback Darious Williams. Williams played on a first-round tender in 2021 and one source believes that, despite a down year, he could bring in $9 million to $10 million per year on a new deal elsewhere (this is something the Rams will not try to match). Further, Williams’ departure could factor into the Rams’ compensatory pick formula. Losing Williams would leave the cornerbacks room very thin outside of star Jalen Ramsey, but second-year player Robert Rochell would have to step up as would fourth-year player David Long Jr. and the Rams would likely turn to the draft and veteran free-agent market for additional help (but because of their value on compensatory picks, it would probably not be one of the larger names).

• Guard Austin Corbett. In Corbett’s case, if his market cycles back around to a number the Rams are willing to work with, he could always stay. The current expectation is that he’ll have solid offers elsewhere. Tremayne Anchrum or Coleman Shelton could potentially slide into any vacancy at either guard position, should they be needed. Shelton is a restricted free agent but the Rams want to retain him.

Market-dependent 

• Players whom I believe the Rams would love to have back include left tackle Joe Noteboom, outside linebacker Obo Okoronkwo and Sony Michel, but the return of each, or any, may be wholly dependent on their respective position markets.

Noteboom is an interesting case study by position and because of his situation. He has proven he can be a starting left tackle in the NFL when substituting for veteran Andrew Whitworth and has position flexibility (albeit an injury history that may cause some teams to balk). Because Noteboom has put solid left tackle play on tape, he could draw interest from several teams that are searching for offensive line help.

Noteboom may still very well be back with the Rams in 2022 and beyond. The reason I listed him here is because the Rams will offer him, and because of the nature of the market for his position his agents will rightfully shop that offer around to gauge interest from other teams. I don’t get a sense that the Rams want to invest more than $10 million per year into a contract for Noteboom, who would also factor into their compensatory pick formula if he left. If he does leave, they could rely on former undrafted free agent tackle Alaric Jackson to step into a steep learning curve at the position. After Jackson’s lone game at left tackle last season (as a rookie, against Minnesota), one team source expressed optimism that he could be a “left tackle of the future” should Noteboom leave.

Okoronkwo, although his snaps were limited because of an early-season injury and the addition of Miller midseason, was one of the Rams’ most efficient pass-rushers per snap and a fastball complement to the rest of their pass-rush. He’s also a locker room favorite, but the Rams expect him to draw some interest from other teams (a similar situation to that of Samson Ebukam last offseason). If they get Miller’s deal done, they won’t be in a position to offer Okoronkwo much to stay.

Michel quickly became a reliable presence for the Rams’ running backs room as it faced injury-related adversity through most of the season. He’s another player the Rams would like to bring back, but they expect him to have other options that are slightly higher-priced than what they would be willing to offer him.

Reward for reading entire article 

• My understanding is that the Rams would absolutely be interested in bringing in inside linebacker Bobby Wagner, who was released by Seattle this week. They have to get finances settled with their current free agents first and specifically could not come anywhere close to the $16 million Wagner was scheduled to be owed by the Seahawks in 2022. The Rams’ number would be closer to $4 million to $5 million, likely with some incentives as well. Wagner, who is from Los Angeles and whom Snead regretfully missed drafting back in 2012, may not like the money — but may want to play in his hometown on a contending team, and get two shots a year at the franchise that cut him. The Rams historically do not invest financially in their inside linebacker position, and want to ensure the continued playing time and growth of third-round starter Ernest Jones, who (despite injury) had an excellent rookie season. They play one “every-down” linebacker in their current scheme, with a second linebacker in complement who often rotates in and out of subpackages. But if the Rams had a realistic chance to get Wagner on a low contract, they’d probably sign first and ask schematic questions later.