on Stafford (starting 9/27) …

We are only 3 games in, and I swore I wasn’t going to draw any conclusions about Stafford until we hit the quarter post of the season, but… the man has elevated the offense significantly. Jackson certainly helped yesterday. But the Rams clearly have a more dangerous vertical attack than they did last year. That’s for damn sure.

Zooey found this, good catch

Zooey wrote:

Though he’s only 22nd in the league in pass attempts this season, averaging just 31 throws per game, he’s ranked fifth in passing yards and tied for second in touchdowns.

538 article that maybe goes into this thread

…
The Rams And Matthew Stafford Have Each Leveled Up

The Rams And Matthew Stafford Have Each Leveled Up

The Los Angeles Rams hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday — and anyone who didn’t know any better might have thought the Rams were the ones trying to win their second straight Super Bowl. Bucs quarterback Tom Brady put up what used to be considered a typical Matthew Stafford stat line: a whopping 55 pass attempts for 432 yards — but only one touchdown, and in a losing effort. Stafford, for the Rams, was Bradyesque: a 71 percent completion rate on 38 attempts, for 343 yards, four touchdowns, no picks, and a 134.0 passer rating. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense held Tampa Bay to just 35 yards rushing on 13 attempts, and the Bucs managed just two total touchdowns until a garbage-time score with 1:10 left. It was a no-doubter of a win against the reigning champs.

But the NFL isn’t old-school college football, where beating the team ranked No. 1 in the opinion polls made you the new No. 1. The Bucs still have the highest Elo rating in the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, and bettors still believe in Tampa Bay (and the 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs) a little more than they do in L.A. And to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC — the only seed that gets a bye into the second round of the playoffs — the Rams still have to fight their way through the NFL’s toughest division.

Let’s start with Stafford, whom the Rams made an all-in push to acquire. Though he’s only 22nd in the league in pass attempts this season, averaging just 31 throws per game, he’s ranked fifth in passing yards and tied for second in touchdowns.1 He’s No. 2 in passer rating, QBR, touchdown rate and average yards per attempt, and he’s No. 1 in net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, and Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). He’s on pace to set career highs in every one of those stats2 — except pass attempts, where his projected 533 attempts over 17 games would be fewer than in all but one of his nine 16-game seasons.

Stafford’s metamorphosis as a quarterback has been fascinating. After injuries shortened his first and second seasons, he spent four years trying to carry the Detroit Lions with sheer volume. He averaged a whopping 675 throws per year from 2011 through 2013, twice leading the league in attempts. But he averaged a passer rating of just 86.9 in that span, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, with an unimpressive-since-the-1980s 1.7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

In 2014, new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi tried to get Stafford to play small(er) ball, bringing Drew Brees’s playbook north with him from New Orleans. Stafford’s interception rate went down during Lombardi’s first year, and the quarterback made his only Pro Bowl appearance to date. But his touchdown rate and yards per attempt also went down, and Lombardi was fired in 2015 amidst reports that Stafford had never been on board with his conservative game plan.

Promoted QB coach Jim Bob Cooter let Stafford grip it and rip it again, and for a while it worked: In 2017, Stafford set then-highs in passer rating, QBR and adjusted net yards per attempt. But defenses figured Cooter and head coach Jim Caldwell out, and after the 2018 season, both of them had been sent packing. Stafford had to evolve again, adjusting to Darrell Bevell’s QB-movement-heavy approach. Somehow asking a 31-year-old Stafford to beat teams with his athleticism worked; in 2019 he again set or matched career best in touchdown rate, interception rate, passer rating, QBR and plenty of other rate stats.

Now, under Rams head coach (and oft-described offensive mastermind) Sean McVay, Stafford appears to have achieved his final form: aggressive, effective, efficient and putting up yards and points in bunches despite throwing far less often than he used to.

But the Rams aren’t compensating by running the ball. They’re 15th in the league in rushing attempts, gaining a second-worst 3.3 average yards per carry. They’re ranked 26th in number of offensive plays and 28th in offensive drives. Yet they’re the best in the league at turning possessions into points, with a 58.6 percent per-drive scoring rate.

What McVay is doing becomes more apparent in the time-of-possession stats. They’re ranked 25th in offensive plays run but 17th in average drive time, using all those ineffective runs to slow down drives and keep their defense off the field. In fact, the Rams’ defense is tied for the second-fewest number of drives faced all year. That’s for the best, because they’re allowing a league-high 7.5 plays per drive and the second-highest average opponent drive time.

Surely, some of the success opponents have had stringing long drives together against them over the first three weeks comes from Brady and the Buccaneers happening to be one of their opponents. But the Rams held Brady to two total touchdowns on 446 yards of offense, and they were similarly stingy against the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears. Despite letting their opponents run all those plays and rack up all that time of possession, the Rams’ defense is 12th-best in per-drive scoring rate allowed.

By slowing down their offensive drives, and bending but not breaking on defense, the Rams have both the league’s most explosive, effective passing game and a ball-control, possession-denial strategy. Unlike old Rams teams that could score as fast as they wanted but wore out their defense in the process, the 2021 Rams seem built to maximize not only Stafford’s arm, but also their chances to win in February.

Matthew Stafford has a 127.2 passer rating under pressure

1st among all QBs 🔥 pic.twitter.com/lyjZog07eY

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 2, 2021

Didn’t the Rams D start kinda “slow” last year too? Or am I wrong about that one? Didn’t Staley need a coupla weeks to get his bearings? And then the Rams D just dominated.

I have a feeling they’ll get better as the season progresses, but I’m less sanguine about the running game, unless they get funky. They’ve just been crushed by the injury bug, again, so it’s time to give the ball to Jake!!

Stafford is also gonna get better, which should scare the scheet out of the rest of the league. Imagine how good he’d be with a healthy Toddy Gurley in his prime?

JAKE ELLENBOGEN@JKBOGEN
Matthew Stafford leads all NFL QBs in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) which is nearly 10% higher than Patrick Mahomes who is 2nd, Dak Prescott who is 3rd, Tom Brady who is 4th and more than 10% better than 5th place, Kyler Murray.

Highest passing grades on throws past 1st read:

🎯Matthew Stafford – 90.1
🎯Russell Wilson – 89.5
🎯Josh Allen – 88.9 pic.twitter.com/o8BTWBzvMZ

— PFF (@PFF) October 16, 2021

Cameron DaSilva@camdasilva
Matthew Stafford has been the best in the NFL by a mile in situations where the Rams need 7+ yards on second and third down.

Stafford has been ridiculously good on 2nd/3rd and 7+ yards this season. That includes 3rd-and-10+, where he already has 9 first downs

To dive a bit deeper into the numbers, Stafford is 10-for-12 with 281 yards and one touchdown on third-and-10 or more yards, posting a near-perfect 146.5 passer rating on those plays. Nine of his 10 completions went for first downs, too. On second-and-10-plus yards, he’s 23-for-31, throwing for 349 yards with 14 first downs picked up.

On all third-downs, he’s completed 27 of 43 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns, with 24 of those completions going for first downs.

—

On non-first downs needing 7+ yards, Matthew Stafford is 49-of-66 (74.2%) with 12.5 Y/A.

League rate is 7.3 Y/A in those spots.

50% of his pass attempts in those situations have resulted a first down, which leads the league by nearly 10%. League rate is 30.2%.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 18, 2021