Setting Up the Lions Massacre

Lions
Ask Kyle: The biggest differences between Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff
Updated: Oct. 20, 2021, 10:17 a.m. | Published: Oct. 20, 2021, 9:54 a.m.
Lions vs. Bengals
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) is greeted by teammates before the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)AP

By Kyle Meinke | kmeinke@mlive.com
ALLEN PARK — The Lions-Rams game has been circled in red ink since the day Brad Holmes sent Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles for three draft picks, including two first-rounders, and Jared Goff.

Now that game is here, and it couldn’t have arrived at a worse time for Goff.

Goff embraced the opportunity for a fresh start in Detroit, to show Sean McVay what he could do with a coaching staff that believed in him. Now he’s lost six straight games under center and is coming off his worst performance in an awful year. He net minus-3 passing yards in the first quarter against Cincinnati and finished with 202 yards on 42 attempts overall — more than half of which came on two series against a prevent defense in the blowout loss.

Stafford, meanwhile, just threw four more touchdown passes and ranks in the top five of every major passing statistic during a 5-1 start in the game’s toughest division.

This week was always going to be all about Stafford and Goff, and the mailbag starts there. Once again, thanks to all who fired off questions. Future questions can be tweeted to @kmeinke or emailed to kmeinke@mlive.com.

With that, let’s go.

Q: You’ve covered Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. I’m interested to know what you think the biggest differences are between them? I never liked Stafford and wanted to give Goff a chance, but he’s been so much worse than I expected. — Mik

A: It was bad for Goff his last two seasons in Los Angeles, then he was shipped to a worse team that stripped its offense of every starting receiver and replaced them with worse players. Not exactly a recipe for success, and voila, success they are not having.

Goff’s completions are traveling just 3.7 yards through the air, dead last among all quarterbacks in the league. (Stafford is sixth.) He’s third to last in yards per attempt. (Stafford is second.) He’s fourth to last in QBR. (Stafford is first.) He’s 25th in DVOA. (Stafford is third.) We could do this all day, but you get the picture. And the picture is the Rams now lead the league in yards per passing play and are second in yards per play overall, while the Lions are now 29th in yards per passing play and yards per play.

One team is getting downfield, the other is not, and you can probably guess which team is 5-1 and which is, well, not.

Jared Goff doesn’t have the arm talent of Matthew Stafford, let’s just start right there. So when you’re trying to compare what the Lions used to have at that position and what they have now, you’re starting with one hand behind your back with Goff under center. But I don’t think arm talent is the biggest problem. Goff wasn’t the No. 1 overall pick on accident, you know? He has a big arm and often looks like it when everything goes right.

To my eye, the biggest difference between Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff is what happens when plays go off schedule. Which in the NFL, happens a lot. Stafford could process the whole field and make something happen, especially in his later years in Detroit. And that has continued in Los Angeles.

“There’s always a timing, a rhythm that you want to see reflected,” Rams coach Sean McVay said recently. “Now, that’s not how the game is always played. It’s an imperfect game. And if you can have those situations reveal itself in a manner that’s reflective of, ‘All right, when we’re on rhythm, when we’re on schedule, let it come to life.’ But I also think one of the beauties of a player like Matthew and some of these other quarterbacks is where you’re distributing the field in a manner that’s reflective of, ‘OK, if the rush disperses that makes you get flushed, is the field still distributed and can he activate all parts of the field?’

“It’s easy (with Stafford) because what happens is if I’m wrong, he still has a chance of making it right. And those are the things you’re looking for. If it’s there in the timing and rhythm, let’s be as close to automatic as possible. But I think the guys that really separate themselves are the ones when it does go a little bit off-schedule, you have the ability to make it right.”

And to my eye, Goff is not one of those guys. We’ve seen it repeatedly in the first six weeks of the season, and training camp before that. When his first read is there, Goff can hit. When a play breaks down, Goff has trouble processing the field. His struggles on fourth down are a great example.

Goff completed just 2 of 9 passes on those critical downs, which is atrocious. But that’s not all on the offensive playcalling. On three of those seven misfires, Goff threw to a contested player (or against Cincinnati, no player at all) while not even looking at a wide-open player in another part of the field. In Green Bay, he didn’t see D’Andre Swift wide open over the middle and threw a contested pass to Quintez Cephus instead. In Chicago, he didn’t see Cephus wide open over the middle and threw to Amon-Ra St. Brown instead. On Sunday, he didn’t see Swift all alone to the right side of the field on fourth-and-4, then spun to the left instead and directly into the pass rush. That forced Penei Sewell to hold, and Goff saw the hold, at which point his brain stopped working. He thought Detroit had a free play, and threw away the football. Of course, Cincinnati declined the penalty and took over at the spot.

That’s really bad. Is it rock bottom? I guess we’ll find out.

At any rate, we’ve known for a long time which quarterback was better than the other. Now Stafford has unlocked dimensions of Sean McVay’s offense that were not accessible with Goff, while Detroit is bottoming out. Dan Campbell says it’s tough to properly evaluate Goff because of all the issues around him, but I disagree. If Matthew Stafford couldn’t win in Detroit, then I think it’d be foolish to try to make it work long term with a guy who is demonstrably worse.

Q: Breaking News: The Lions are bad. And for a whole lot of reasons. And I think by unanimous decision, QB play shoulders a majority of the blame. But the one thing that puzzles me is all the comments about how bad our receiver group is. Inexperienced? Yes. Any household names? No. Does that make them bad? If Goff is too timid to even look further than 5 yards, much less actually throw that far, how can anyone possibly grade them? Good or bad? So my actual question is, have you seen enough tape to tell whether or not they are actually getting open and Goff is just blind to it or if all of them are in fact draped on every down and Goff has no choice but to check down every freakin’ time? — Michael Morris

A: As far as the Lions’ receivers go, yeah, they’re really bad. Their only pass-catchers who rank inside the top 75 in separation are Kalif Raymond (a slot receiver who is playing out of position on the outside), Amon-Ra St. Brown (a slot receiver) and T.J. Hockenson (a tight end). That’s it. And slot receivers and tight ends are not usually vertical threats.

Give credit to Raymond for what is already a career season for him, but the guy is 5-foot-8. The only business he has running downfield routes on the outside is a total lack of other options, which, hey presto, is exactly where the Lions are at. Their top outside guy in terms of separation is Trinity Benson (76th), who didn’t even dress last week because he’s been so bad.

What’s so vexing is the predictability of the problem. When the closest thing anyone in your receiver corps has to a track record is one 1,000-yard season five years ago, followed by some very average seasons as a WR2-3 before not playing at all last year due to injuries, you’re not doing enough to help your quarterback. Now we’re in Week 7 and Tyrell Williams is still stuck on two catches for 14 yards because of a brain injury.

You can’t predict injuries, and that’s a tough break. But this is the NFL, everyone deals with injuries everywhere eventually, and it’s just further revealing how little Detroit did to support Jared Goff last offseason. Which is how you end up with a slot receiver (Raymond) and special teams ace (KhaDarel Hodge) with a combined zero 15-catch seasons lining up as your starting outside receivers against Cincinnati.

Q: I know the lions have been rebuilding since 1957 and they need a QB now but there are no rookies worthy of first rd consideration. With that are there any possible free agent QBs available this off season worth going after? — Robert Westerhouse

A: This was always the problem with passing on guys like Justin Fields (whom I mocked to Detroit) and Mac Jones. I get the Lions’ approach — they wanted to build out the roster to offer better support for the quarterback they eventually picked to see this thing through — but you’re also gambling on when you’ll be back on the clock and which quarterbacks will even be available. And now a once-promising class of quarterback prospects is almost uniformly underwhelming in the college game. Even with the first overall pick, I’m not sure there’s a quarterback worth taking.

I salute your out-of-the-box thinking to the problem, but there’s a reason almost nobody successfully resolves their quarterback issues through free agency, short of a unicorn situation like Tom Brady. Which, hey, maybe happens next year with a guy like Aaron Rodgers. But usually teams don’t let good quarterbacks go, which is how you end up with a free-agent quarterback class that is headlined by guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Taysom Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Mitchell Trubisky and you get the point.

There might be some marginal upgrades in there, but none of those guys is the long-term answer for a rebuild like this. And let’s not forget the Lions already financially committed to Goff for 2022 when they restructured his contract after the trade. They converted $20 million of Goff’s $25.65 million base salary for this season into a signing bonus, which freed up $15 million in immediate cap space but also left them with a cap hit of $15 million if they want to move on from Goff after the season.

In other words: Jared Goff will probably be on the team next year, at a total cap hit of $31.15 million, which makes it awfully difficult to spend more money at the quarterback position. Any meaningful, long-term addition would have to come in the draft, like it does for most teams at that position — but that brings us back around to the initial problem, which is what appears to be a weak quarterback class.

Quite the spot to be in. Makes me wonder if that played into why the 49ers burned so much draft capital to move up for Trey Lance. Because now they have their quarterback, while Detroit took a pass and now finds itself in a tight spot at the game’s most important position.

Q: It seems like to me the Rams trade was one sided & bringing on Goff & restructuring him killed the rebuild before is even started. How are those 2 late 1st going to turn things around? — @szn_lions

A: Let’s get one thing straight. Matthew Stafford is a good quarterback, and Jared Goff hasn’t been a good quarterback in a long time. This was always obvious, which is why the Rams traded Goff and three draft picks for Stafford. Nobody gives away their quarterback and three picks — including two first-rounders! — to acquire a quarterback who is worse. Period.

So the Lions got worse at quarterback in the short term, but I still like the trade for them because of those draft picks. First-rounders like Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, T.J. Hockenson and Penei Sewell are all playing really well (injuries notwithstanding), and now the Lions will get two more players like that next year, then two more the year after that. So they should be better in 2022, and they should be a lot better by 2023. Just think about what this team would look like with four more Ragnows or Sewells or Hockensons, you know?

Of course, none of that will matter without resolution at the quarterback position, which, well, yeah.

Q: As someone in sports media and as close to the situation as possible, what are your opinions on the National Media’s treatment of almost anything Dan Campbell says or does? Lions fans are going through it as is, don’t need our HC trashed for being..honest. — @md_ratliff

A: I assume this is in reference to Cris Carter? For those who missed it (I envy you), the Hall of Fame receiver said, amongst a lot of other dumb stuff: “You just can’t go to a press conference and just speak off the cuff. No, that is not a professional head coach. Now you’ve got me confused as a player. Make up your mind. Last week, you’re crying? And this week you’re criticizing the most valuable player in the franchise? Let me tell you what Jared Goff needs right now, and a lot of people around the NFL, they might not admit this, but he needs a hug.

“When was the last coach we’ve seen sit at that podium and criticize a player? It’s been a long time, because the coach of all 32 teams is telling them, ‘Hey, Kay, I’ll never talk about you to the media. I’ll never say anything that I didn’t go over with you.’ … So that right there, that’s an amateur coach not supporting his quarterback and not supporting his team, because he did something that you’re never supposed to do.”

So many awful takes packed into such a tight space. I’m impressed, Cris. Just a couple quick points.

1) It’s OK to cry one week and be critical the next. There are no rules governing when coaches are allowed to show different kinds of emotions.

2) Yes, Dan Campbell criticized Jared Goff. He also offered several statements of support for Jared Goff, including saying he never considered benching the quarterback, the quarterback still has his support, the issues in the passing game have a lot to do with other players missing assignments around Jared Goff, and the Lions’ issues go much deeper than just Jared Goff. He actually cut off a reporter at one point — for I believe the first time ever — to insist Detroit’s scoring problems in the first half are not on just Goff.

“It has nothing to do with Jared,” Campbell said defiantly. “That’s not true, E. That’s not true. But what I’m saying is I don’t put this all on Jared Goff. This is a collective. This is collective offensively.”

3) After all that, after six questions about Jared Goff and six replies of varying support, yes, Dan Campbell had the temerity to suggest Goff — like everyone else — could be better. Here’s exactly what he said: “I will say this: I feel like he needs to step up more than he has. And I think he needs to help us, just like everybody else. I think he’s going to need to put a little bit of weight on his shoulders here and it’s time to step up, make some throws and do some things. But he needs help. He needs help.”

4) If you can’t publicly say one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, who is playing for the only winless team in the league, needs to do a little bit more just like everybody else — and only doing so after defending him six different ways — then why even hold the press conferences at all?

And if a quarterback is so fragile that he can’t bear to hear his coach say he needs to put a little more on his shoulders for the worst team in the damn league, along with everyone else, then what business does that guy have of being in the NFL at all?

Q: QB class isn’t great, and Thibodeaux seems intriguing enough for the #1 pick. Is there a scenario where Detroit doesn’t take a QB in the first round this year? — @fearlessfairles

A: Absolutely. At this point, that’s exactly where this thing is going. Quarterbacks always have a way of rising up the board as the draft process plays out because the position is so important and teams are desperate for good ones. But 1:1? I just don’t see it this year. The Lions obviously need a quarterback, but you can’t miss when you take one either. It’s most important to add a premium talent, and in case you’ve been living under a rock or without wifi or whatever, Kayvon Thibodeaux looks quite premium.

Q: I recall multiple past rebuilds by other teams (specifically thinking of the Browns from some years back) where the rebuild was too slow and/or backward because of the different and limited shelf lives of different positions. When you say to yourself that great RBs last 3-5 yrs, OL maybe 5-7 best case, etc. and you decide to build out from the trenches, is that the right order? And if so, how long should a rebuild take so you’re not getting talent at the same rate you’re losing it, or it’s expiring? — @grantbonin

A: I hear you I think, but I come to the opposite conclusion. If the shelf life of offensive linemen is longest, wouldn’t it make more sense to start there, then finish off the rebuild at positions that have the shortest lifespans? So that, ideally, they’re all coming together at once?

There are so many other variables to consider as well. Teams like to build through the trenches because offensive linemen are the backbone of the offense. Good ones make everyone else better, while bad ones make everyone else worse — and could get them killed. Having great receivers won’t matter if your quarterback is on his hindparts, right?

Q: How is your cat? Do you think he would ever throw the ball out of bounds on 4th down? — @nicosuave6

A: Kilgore Trout actually passed back in April due to advanced kidney disease. I buried him at the abandoned zoon on Belle Isle. I’m pretty sure that’s illegal, so let’s just keep that between us.

I now live with my buddy’s cat. His name is Jean-Claude, I like him more than 99% of humans, and he would be far more likely to take a nap on the football than throw it away on fourth down, which seems like a better use of his time.

Q: What’s the status of Tyrell Williams? I know all head injuries are different but Daniel Jones almost collapses and plays 7 days later. Are we closing in on a Javid Best situation? — @DetLionsFan24

A: I’ve seen guys bounce back in a matter of days. I’ve also seen Rashean Mathis take a shot to the head, pass all his concussion protocols, then fly to Europe with the team before symptoms began to set in. And he never played another down in the NFL again.

In other words, I have no idea. He could be back this week, he could never be back, it could be anywhere in the middle. When it comes to the brain, you just got to let the guy take care of himself and get right.

Q: How are you Kyle? What are your tips, tricks, what have you to get through this rough season. — @Handsome_Cheese

A: As long as the checks keep cashin’ and the press box is stocked with free food, I can’t complain.

Does covering 10 straight losses get old? Yes. Does spending four straight years of my life watching terrible football get exhausting? Absolutely. Does doing this job for nine years without so much as a playoff win get redundant? You’re a Lions fan, so you already know the answer better than I do.

But the job is great, win or lose, and I’ve never taken it for granted for a day in my life. I fly around the country writing about the greatest athletes in the greatest sport on earth. And they actually pay me to do it. It’s been a tough go football-wise for a while now, but it’s not lost on me how damn lucky I am to live this life.