Rams 2024 Free Agency and Draft

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  • #148820
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    Need to resign Kevin Dotson, and hopefully sign either AJ Espensa or Shaq Lawson. Buffalo can’t sign them both.

    We can sign

    UFAs
    – AJ Espenesa or Shaq Lawson for 3 years $21 M, $15 M Guarantee
    – Dotson, probably gets 4 year $52 M , $30 M Guarantee
    – DRob, gets a 1 year $3 M.
    – Witherspoon probably gets a 1 year, $2 M deal,
    – Wentz will gets a 1 year, $1.5 M.

    RFAs
    – Brycen Hopkins gets 1 year $1 M deal
    – Alaric Jackson gets a 2 year $1.8 M deal
    – Michael Hoecht gets a 2 year $1.8 M deal

    My Draft through a draft simulator I traded back a bit, to pick up a 2nd round pick, and traded

    draft

    #148821
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Rams don’t have a big bank. They have some cap room for a change but it’s not “buy 2 or 3 expensive FAs plus sign their own FAs” kind of money. Or at least that’s how it looks right now. They have some space but they have to be selective about how they use it.

     

    #148823
    Avatar photonittany ram
    Moderator

    I would prioritize signing Dotson.

    I’d sign DRob, and Jackson.

    I’d love to have Wentz back but that’s probably not possible.

    #148824
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2024/1/16/24040519/rams-cap-space-matthew-stafford-contract-cooper-kupp-aaron-donald

     

    Should Rams restructure contracts of Stafford, Donald, or Kupp to save cap?

    Rams have contract decisions to consider with Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp
    By Kenneth Arthur

    The Los Angeles Rams faced difficult contractual decisions in 2023 and not only did they manage to survive the fallout, Sean McVay coached them into the playoffs and a top-5 offense in the second half of the season. Now that the season is over, the Rams have more financial decisions to make and specifically with their big-3 stars:

    Should the L.A. Rams restructure Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and/or Cooper Kupp to save money now but pay these over-30 NFL stars more money later?
    2024 salary cap

    OvertheCap.com projects $41.3 million in cap space and $25.8 million in “effective” cap space for 2024. That ranks 12th in the NFL.

    But with free agents like Kevin Dotson, Ahkello Witherspoon, Carson Wentz, Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Fuller, and John Johnson, the number could evaporate quickly, not to mention L.A.’s probable desire to add more marquee talent.

    Les Snead must be itching to do that after he was hamstrung from making moves last year. If the Rams want to create between $10-$50 million in additional space there’s opportunities to do that…but not without impacting 2025 and beyond.

    Matthew Stafford

    Stafford has a $31 million base salary next season, but the Rams could turn that into a signing bonus and save up to $19.8 million in 2024 cap space by restructuring. Though Stafford reportedly rejected the Rams advances to change his contract last year, they do not have to get his permission to restructure his deal. They can do that any time they want to do that.

    What it would do, however, is change Stafford’s 2025 cap hit from $50 million to $60 million. He will be 37 in 2025.

    Aaron Donald

    Donald has a $34.1 million cap hit next season, when he will be 33.

    The Rams can convert his $10 million salary into a signing bonus and save up to $13.6 million against the cap, at least according to OvertheCap. However, Donald is entering the last year of his contract and only has void years left beyond 2024. That means he will be a free agent in 2025 and the Rams can’t give him the franchise tag. It’s hard to imagine that Donald will play anywhere else and we’re not sure yet what his plans for the future even are.

    Donald says he didn’t contemplate retirement after last season, but where is his head for next season and beyond?

    Cooper Kupp

    Kupp has a $29.8 million cap hit in 2024, but the team can save up to $12.5 million with a restructure. However, did Kupp play well enough this past season—or was he healthy enough—for the team to risk tying themselves to the 31-year-old receiver for additional years? A restructure now would increase his 2025 cap hit to $36 million.

    The Rams will not cut Kupp this year because it is financially impossible due to the restructure last year. It’s possible he says his body isn’t in it for another round of football, who knows? Trading him isn’t feasible because of his age and the wear and tear and his $20 million guaranteed salary.

    But a restructure seems unwise and unlikely.

    What will the Rams do?

    The most likely move, if the Rams need one, is to restructure Matthew Stafford for up to $20 million in cap savings. Though his $60 million cap hit in 2025 would be extraordinary, it’s not even quite the highest in the NFL anymore and a quarterback is the one position where it’s worth it.

    The team might also look into extending Aaron Donald in order to bring down his cap hit.

    As for Kupp, they might need to just sit on his deal this year and see what happens with him as the offseason progresses. Is his body in it or is he feeling like he’s given the NFL everything he can give?

    The team has other cap savings opportunities, like with Joe Noteboom and Brian Allen, but these are the three contracts that matter the most. I wouldn’t expect all three to be exactly the same and intact when we get to training camp.

     

    #148825
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Here’s a recent mock of mine. I traded down a ton, taking what was offered via the software on the site. All pure fantasy, of course, cuz NFL teams won’t give up so much to move up a few spots, and no team trades this much. But it covers all the bases for the Rams and then some.

    My amateur GM board will change a lot after the Combine, interviews, Pro Days, and medical evals, etc. So this is a way-too-early mock, etc.

     

    36
    Kingsley Suamataia
    OT | BYU LogoBYUTRADE

    72
    Calen Bullock
    S | USC LogoUSCTRADE

    84
    Josh Newton
    CB | TCU LogoTCU

    95
    Sedrick Van Pran
    IOL | Georgia LogoGeorgiaTRADE

    99
    Tyler Davis
    DL | Clemson LogoClemsonTRADE

    113
    Max Melton
    CB | Rutgers LogoRutgersTRADE

    114
    Braelon Allen
    RB | Wisconsin LogoWisconsinTRADE

    116
    J.Michael Sturdivant
    WR | UCLA LogoUCLATRADE

    125
    Junior Colson
    LB | Michigan LogoMichiganTRADE

    151
    Jalen McMillan
    WR | Washington LogoWashingtonTRADE

    153
    Kitan Oladapo
    S | Oregon State LogoOregon State

    154
    Bryson Nesbit
    TE | North Carolina LogoNorth Carolina

    190
    Cedric Johnson
    EDGE | Mississippi LogoMississippi

    210
    Gabe Hall
    DL | Baylor LogoBaylorTRADE

    211
    Sione Vaki
    S | Utah LogoUtah

    213
    Drake Nugent
    IOL | Michigan LogoMichigan

    216
    M.J. Devonshire
    CB | Pittsburgh LogoPittsburgh

    217
    Will Reichard
    K | Alabama LogoAlabama

    #148826
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Too early to get solid reporting on player intangibles, so the tie-breakers for me tend to be age, size, (estimated and recorded) athleticism, and being on Bruce Feldman’s “freaks” list. If players are rated roughly in the same block, I’m gonna take the youngest, biggest, freakiest athletes available.

    (I’m also swayed by the potential of “value.” Finding a player late who was rated much higher, for instance.)

    A good thing about Feldman’s list is he usually includes GPS data, plus stuff you really can’t “train” for at the last second, like strength metrics. It takes time and tenacity to build up to that. And we learned how important GPS is with Kupp a few years ago, and especially now with Nacua. He topped 21mph in NFL games, and that kind of playing speed is exceptional. Going by just his Combine 40 time is one of the reasons so many teams passed on him. Injuries, too.

    Speaking of age: Nacua is listed as 23 on the official Rams site, but 22 elsewhere. Wiki has him with a 2001 DOB and 22. A few other sites do as well. Weird that they can’t get a consensus age for players.

     

    #148828
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Speaking of age: Nacua is listed as 23 on the official Rams site, but 22 elsewhere. Wiki has him with a 2001 DOB and 22. A few other sites do as well. Weird that they can’t get a consensus age for players.

    I knew it.

    The truth is, Nacua is more than one person.

    It makes sense.

    Maybe twins born a year apart? That kind of thing.

    #148840
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Well, i say they should just keep drafting record-breaking rookies-of-the-year.

     

    w

    v

    #148865
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    #148871
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Speaking of age: Nacua is listed as 23 on the official Rams site, but 22 elsewhere. Wiki has him with a 2001 DOB and 22. A few other sites do as well. Weird that they can’t get a consensus age for players.

     

    he’s listed as 22 on the official website.

     

    it might not be the worst idea to trade down. just add volume and see what sticks.

     

    i would like to see them make one major fa signing outside bringing their own players back – preferably a pass rusher.

    #148872
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Speaking of age: Nacua is listed as 23 on the official Rams site, but 22 elsewhere. Wiki has him with a 2001 DOB and 22. A few other sites do as well. Weird that they can’t get a consensus age for players.

    he’s listed as 22 on the official website. it might not be the worst idea to trade down. just add volume and see what sticks. i would like to see them make one major fa signing outside bringing their own players back – preferably a pass rusher.

     

    I may be mistaken in considering this site “official,” but it’s the one that lists him as 23. No big deal, one way or another. But in my nerdy way, 22 seems better than 23, when it comes to finite peak years/contracts, etc.

    https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/puka-nacua/

    Have been playing around more with the Mock simulator. It was giving me too many ridiculously good trade offers, so I stopped using them. Did manual trades instead, and stuck to the old value chart. No way to really get all the spots upgraded that need ’em. So it’s gotta be triage. I’m probably on the same page as most fans in putting corner, edge, tackle at the top, but the Rams need another receiver and running back, too, plug a big, athletic guard to play opposite Avila, if they can’t re-sign Dotson.

    If I had the picks, I’d double up on corner, edge, safety, and guard, and make sure I found a legit starting LT. Also want a hogmolly at DT. This draft is deep in freakishly athletic D-linemen, wideouts, and corners, especially. So far, looks weak on tight ends, which the Rams need too.

     

    #148878
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Hey BT, I was lost in work and didn’t see the spam filter issues till just now. Which of your 3 replies do you want to keep? Looks like maybe the longest one?

    #148879
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    No worries, ZN.

    The longest post works. Thanks.

    #148884
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Done.

    #148887
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    I may be mistaken in considering this site “official,” but it’s the one that lists him as 23.

     

    that’s weird cuz when i click on the roster it lists his age at 22.

     

    https://www.therams.com/team/players-roster/

    #148892
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Invader,

    It is weird. Now click on his name, over there on the left, next to his pic.

    It will say 23.

    Quite the mystery. Where is The Thin Man when you need him?

     

    #148897
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    There is a chance, if Raheem Morris gets an HC job, we will get a 3rd round comp this year, and a 3rd round comp next year. I want us to sign, Aubrey Pleasant, our DB coach, as the new DC, fast.

    Here’s my wishlist. Some of these players I have written down, could be late round to UDFA’s, mixed in with earlier round talent.. The talent is there,

    Wide receiver:
    J. Michael Sturdivant UCLA
    Kaden Prather Maryland
    Ty James Mercer

    TE:
    Jaheim Bell Florida State
    Erick Alt Iowa

    EDGE/DE:
    Zion Tupuola-Fetui Washington
    Jonah Ellis Utah
    Sundiata Anderson Grambling
    Thor Griffin(DE) Harvard

    ILB:
    Jeremiah Trotter Clemson
    Jaylon Ford Texas
    Omar Speights LSU
    Armon Bailey Sacramento State
    Devon Jones Kutztown University

    DT:
    Maason Smith LSU
    Kris Jenkins, Michigan
    T’Vondre Stewart Texas

    CB:
    Kool-Aid McKinstry Alabama
    Terrion Arnold Alabama
    Sheridan Jones Clemson
    Willie Drew Virginia State
    Devin Haskins Holy Cross

    S:
    Cole Bishop Utah
    Josh Poctor Ohio State
    Malchi Moore Alabama
    Javon Morgan Florida A&M
    Khalil Baker NC Central

    RB:
    Isiah Davis South Dakaota

    IOL:
    Sedrick Van Pran, (C) Georgia
    Zach Frazier(C) West Virginia
    Seth Osborne(C) St. Francis(PA)
    Mason McCormick (G) South Dakota State

    OT:
    Jordan Morgan Arizona
    Jalen Travis Princeton
    Kiran Amegadjie Yale

    #148898
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    List of our players not under contract for 2024:

    Coleman Shelton C – Predicting Philly signs him, due to Kelce retiring.
    Kevin Dotson RG – Need to sign 4 years $28 million, $20 million guaranteed
    Carson Wentz QB – Need to sign, but no more than 1 year, $1.5 million
    Carson Tinker LS – Need to sign, but not more than 1, year $1.5 million
    Demarcus Robinson WR – need to sign, but not more than 1 year, $2 million
    Royce Freeman RB – Let him walk
    Brett Maher K – Need to sign, but not more than 1 year, $2 million
    Ahkello Witherspoon CB – Need to sign, but not more than 1 year, $2 million
    John Johnson S – Let him walk
    Duke Shelley CB- Let him walk
    Troy Reeder LB – Let him walk
    Tyler Johnson WR – Let him walk
    Brycen Hopkins TE – Need to sign, but not more than 1 year $1.5 million
    Larrell Murchison EDGE – Let him walk
    Christian Rozeboom LB RFA – Sign for lowest tender for RFA
    Michael Hoecht EDGE RFA – Sign for lowest tender for RFA. Move him to DE
    Jonah Williams RFA -Sign for lowest tender for RFA
    Austin Trammell WR ERFA – Sign for what ERFA’s are worth
    Jordan Fuller S – Let him walk
    Tremayne Anchrum – Let him walk
    Alaric Jackson LT RFA – Sign for lowest tender for RFA
    Ronnie Rivers RB ERFA – Sign for what ERFA’s are worth
    Earnest Brown IV EDGE RFA – Sign for lowest tender for RFA

     

    • This reply was modified 9 months, 4 weeks ago by JackPMiller.
    #148900
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Alaric Jackson LT RFA – Sign for lowest tender for RFA

    That’s my one real disagreement. Why hand a cheap experienced LOT starter to another team. Jackson like many players for the 2023 Rams–and the OL in general like many units for the 2023 Rams–benefitted from the obvious “review film, assess and improve starters and units accordingly” routine the Rams went through at the bye. So he picks up his play after the bye. Rams OL was effective and a lot of that as with all OLs has to include having a solid LOT. If you lowball Jackson you’re inviting the rest of the league to think about poaching him, and therefore getting a solid experienced veteran starting LOT at a very cheap price.

    #148901
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    If you lowball Jackson you’re inviting the rest of the league to think about poaching him, and therefore getting a solid experienced veteran starting LOT at a very cheap price.

     

    i agree. i was at one point wanting to draft a left tackle to replace jackson but at this point i’d rather they opt for continuity. bring back jackson. bring back dotson. they may have to draft a center. but i’d try to bring back as many starters as i could on the oline.

    #148905
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    If you lowball Jackson you’re inviting the rest of the league to think about poaching him, and therefore getting a solid experienced veteran starting LOT at a very cheap price.

    i agree. i was at one point wanting to draft a left tackle to replace jackson but at this point i’d rather they opt for continuity. bring back jackson. bring back dotson. they may have to draft a center. but i’d try to bring back as many starters as i could on the oline.

     

    Teams know, Alaric Jackson can’t stay healthy.

    #148909
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Teams know, Alaric Jackson can’t stay healthy.

    Yeah like Roger Saffold. 😎

    #148911
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Teams know, Alaric Jackson can’t stay healthy.

     

    i’m not sure about that. 2021 was his rookie season. sophomore season he suffered injuries yes. for blood clots. not sure if that’s a chronic condition. he didn’t miss many games in college. he played most of this season. i don’t think durability is a huge issue.

    #148925
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    Teams know, Alaric Jackson can’t stay healthy.

    Yeah like Roger Saffold. 😎

     

    Losing Alaric Jackson would be know big deal, if another team signs him. That’s how I see it.

    #148926
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Teams know, Alaric Jackson can’t stay healthy.

    Yeah like Roger Saffold. 😎

    Losing Alaric Jackson would be know big deal, if another team signs him. That’s how I see it.

    We just differ on that. IMO, it would be a big deal. If they lost AJ they would need a left OT. Jackson was solid down the stretch and like much of the team picked up after the bye. So you have Jackson who is solid and capable of improving with a great OL coach, or a rookie, or they spend big money on a free agent at a position they already have covered when they can use that same money on a position they don’t have covered. I can see adding a rookie for depth and to replace Noteboom, but not just throwing a veteran starting LOT away.

    Jackson was solid down the stretch. And he was battle tested against guys like Myles Garrett. Rams were a top 10 offense in the final games and IMO you don’t have a top 10 offense with an expendable LOT.

    #148933
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator
    Gary Klein@LATimesklein
    “It gives you a healthy way to evolve as a team and continue to add pieces,” Snead told reporters when asked about the team’s cap space. “I don’t think we’re sitting here today going, ‘OK, let’s spend all $40 million within the first hour.’”
    #148942
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    My wish draft. Does not mean this will happen, but it is based on where players are expected to be, in the rounds. I’m expecting that Raheem Morris gets a Head Coaching gig. Which means, we get a 3rd round comp pick in 2024, and a 3rd round comp pick in 20205. I want the Rams to sign Aubrey Pleasant, our DB coach, to be our new DC.

    1(19). Kool Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
    2(52). Sedrick Van Pran C Georgia
    3(83). Jonah Ellis Edge Utah
    3(comp). Malachi Moore S Alabama
    5(152). Erik Alt TE Iowa
    5(153). Kaden Prather WR Maryland
    6(190). Omar Speights ILB LSU
    6(211). Sheridan Jones CB Clemson
    6(213). Fabian Lovelett DT Florida State
    6(216). Isiah Davis RB South Dakota State
    6(217). Anim Dankwah OT Howard

    • This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by JackPMiller.
    #148963
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    I cut way back on the trades, and cuz Verse was on the board, stopped at just one:

    Los Angeles Receives:

    2024: Round 1, Pick 25
    2024: Round 3, Pick 88
    2024: Round 6, Pick 203

    Green Bay Receives:

    2024: Round 1, Pick 19

    My Selections
    25
    Jared Verse
    EDGE | Florida State LogoFlorida StateTRADE

    52
    Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
    CB | Missouri LogoMissouri

    83
    Brenden Rice
    WR | USC LogoUSC

    88
    Braelon Allen
    RB | Wisconsin LogoWisconsinTRADE

    152
    Sione Vaki
    S | Utah LogoUtah

    153
    Darius Robinson
    DL | Missouri LogoMissouri

    190
    Beaux Limmer
    IOL | Arkansas LogoArkansas

    203
    Omar Speights
    LB | LSU LogoLSUTRADE

    211
    Trey Knox
    TE | South Carolina LogoSouth Carolina

    213
    M.J. Devonshire
    CB | Pittsburgh LogoPittsburgh

    216
    Malik Mustapha
    S | Wake Forest LogoWake Forest

    217
    Jordan Travis
    QB | Florida State LogoFlorida State

    _

    I think the Rams need a tackle, but the draft fell in a different way for me. I prioritized two freakishly athletic skill players, Brenden Rice and Braelon Allen, instead. Rice has the potential to be a true #1 receiver, with crazy speed and good size. He’s the perfect 1b to Puka’s 1a. Allen is Derrick Harvey-size, but faster, and just 21 for his rookie year.

    It’s more fun to have a host of draft picks, cuz I wanted to fill all the Rams needs plus backups. But that’s not going to happen. So a more realistic way to go is to maximize at least the first three or four picks, and hope for some hidden gems later.

    *Hoping the Baker Mayfield comp turns into a 5th, and Morris is hired as HC. That gives the Rams two more shots.

    #148964
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    The above changes, of course, if the Rams make miracles happen and sign Brian Burns. He gives them a top-flight edge, age 26 for the next season, so they can focus elsewhere. IMO, he should be their top priority. Also, I’m hoping they target young, ascending free agents, instead of older, one-year signings. Guys they can sign for at least three years during their peaks. Obviously, corners, safeties, a tight end, tackle, center. If they don’t draft a running back, they need to find help for Williams, via FA, and he needs to keep the offense humming at the same clip. No let down, etc.

    The NFL is a harsh world, but I’d cut Noteboom, Allen, Long, and Kendrick, post-June, to free up roughly 25 million.

    Salary Cap Calculator

    But that’s tricky stuff, of course — the pre- and post-June cuts — cuz of timing, with FA starting in March. Their savings go way up, especially for Noteboom, but they need the cap space before June. So, they might not be able to wait. Have never been a Cap guy, so just tossing stuff around here.

    Anyway, they don’t really have enough room to splurge on more than one or two guys, at least not without those key cuts, and the timing doesn’t work in their favor for the initial wave, which Burns will most certainly be in (if he’s not tagged).

    #148967
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    that’s tricky stuff, of course — the pre- and post-June cuts — cuz of timing, with FA starting in March. Their savings go way up, especially for Noteboom, but they need the cap space before June.

    That’s all correct. And for the sake of anyone reading this who doesn’t know, if you designate a player a post-June 1 cut you do get more savings from cutting them. But you still have to carry their money on your books until June 2. That can mean that you miss out on March spending.

    Here’s how it works with NB.

    1. If they keep him he costs 20 M against the cap and my bet is that they won’t pay 20 M for a 6th OL.

    2. If they designate him a post-June 1 cut they save 15 M, but that means they have to carry his 20 M on the books until June 2. As BT says, that could screw up their plans in free agency in March.

    3. Or if they cut him before June 1, they save just 5 M. But then there could be circumstances where they might just want that 5 M “now” (ie. in March).

    So there’s a lot to pay attention to with NB. We’ll see what they’ll do when it happens.

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