NFL Scouting Combine risers, fallers and the prospects sending evaluators back to the tape
https://theathletic.com/850016/2019/03/04/nfl-scouting-combine-risers-fallers-and-the-prospects-sending-nfl-evaluators-back-to-the-tape/
Over the last four days, 337 prospects had the opportunity to audition for NFL scouts at the 2019 NFL Scouting Combine. Most of those prospects performed as expected, but several exceeded expectations while others disappointed.
Risers
Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
Arguably the most impressive workout of the week belonged to Sweat, who ran a blazing 4.41 in the 40-yard dash. That is a remarkable time for anyone, but especially considering he is a 6-foot-6, 260-pound pass rusher with 35 3/4-inch arms.
The 40-yard dash always receives the headlines, but the more important drills for pass rushers are the 10-yard split and the three-cone drill. And Sweat did very well in both. First, for context, the average 10-yard split is 1.63 among the top NFL edge rushers. Khalil Mack (at 251 pounds) posted a 1.53, which was one of the best times among defensive linemen in recent history. Von Miller (at 246 pounds) ran a 1.59. Sweat posted a 1.50 10-yard split on Sunday, which is more comparable to skill athletes such as Antonio Brown (1.50), Jalen Ramsey (1.51) and LeSean McCoy (1.52).
Sweat recorded a 7.00 three-cone time, which isn’t nearly as remarkable as his 40- and 10-yard times. But for a player who “can’t bend,” according to some, a 7-second three cone is an impressive time for him.
Tape? Check. Sweat has some stiffness in his rush, but he maximizes his length, balance and stride quickness to rush the pocket and shut down the run.
Production? Check. Sweat posted 22.0 sacks in the SEC the last two seasons, the second most in college football over that span behind only Kentucky’s Josh Allen.
Testing? Check. The numbers speak for themselves.
Michigan defenders
Entering the combine, all the chatter surrounded Rashan Gary and his projected workout numbers. And while Gary performed extremely well in the 40-yard dash (4.58) and vertical (38 inches), he was average in the three-cone (7.26) and short shuttle (4.29). And it was the other Michigan defenders who really caught my eye.
Pass rusher Chase Winovich (6-2 3/4, 256) ran a 4.59 40-yard dash, but it was his 10-yard split (1.55) and three-cone (6.94) that truly impressed. Both of those numbers ranked third-best among defensive linemen. He also looked smooth in positional workouts and showed why he belongs in the top-75 discussion (if the interviews went well).
Linebacker Devin Bush is one of my favorite players to watch in this draft class. He is short but had better length (32-inch arms) than expected and didn’t disappoint during workouts. Bush ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, which was a tick behind LSU’s Devin White (4.42) for the fastest time among linebackers. But Bush bested White in the three-cone (6.93) and vertical (40.5 inches). Bush cemented his status as a first-round player.
Cornerback David Long isn’t the biggest (5-11, 196) or longest (30 7/8 inch arms), but he tested off the charts with a 6.45 three-cone drill and 3.97 short shuttle, which led all participants at this year’s combine, regardless of position. Other impressive numbers: 4.45 40-yard dash, 39.5-inch vertical and 3.97 short shuttle. Long also showed off smooth hips in the position drills, fluidly changing directions and staying balanced in his movements. His tape didn’t see a lot of action, and he needs to do a better job staying hands-off downfield to avoid penalties, but Long is a tough-minded corner with quick feet and movement skills to handle himself in space. He was almost exclusively an outside corner in college, and scouts were hoping to see a strong workout to help project him inside in the nickel, and I think he did that.
Michigan had four defensive players at the combine, and all four helped themselves in the eyes of evaluators.
Ohio State receivers
Who is this year’s top senior receiver prospect? South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel made a strong statement at the Senior Bowl. Some around the league love Massachusetts’ Andy Isabella. But Parris Campbell reminded everyone that he is a premier athlete at the combine.
Campbell (6-0, 205) tied for the top 40-yard dash (4.31) and short shuttle (4.03) at his position and was one of only five receivers to reach 40 inches in the vertical jump.
Not only is Campbell an elite athlete, but he put together a strong senior year in Columbus. He set the school record for catches in a season (90) and became just the fifth player in program history to surpass 1,000 yards receiving in a season.
My biggest concern with Campbell’s tape was the limited route tree and lack of downfield targets. He was an underneath threat as the “H-back” in Urban Meyer’s offense, posting three catches of 40-plus yards in 2018, but all three were catch-and-go at the line of scrimmage. However, Campbell looked impressive during downfield drills at the combine, running sharp routes and tracking the ball well over his shoulder. It was a very encouraging step as he develops that part of his game, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Campbell hears his name called in Round One.
Not to be forgotten, Ohio State receivers Terry McLaurin posted the fifth-best 40-yard dash time (4.35) among wideouts, and Johnnie Dixon wasn’t far behind (4.41). McLaurin created buzz with his performance at the Senior Bowl, and he continued that momentum at the combine. He will be a quality pickup in the third- to fourth-round range, showing off on special teams as he moves up the wide receiver depth chart.
Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Fant was expected to blow up the combine, and he did just that. We shouldn’t “count it twice” in regard to his athleticism (shoutout to Rotoworld’s Josh Norris for that term), but seeing him move in space will leave a lasting impression in the mind’s of evaluators.
Fant (6-4, 249) led all tight ends in the 40-yard dash (4.50), vertical jump (39.5) and broad jump (10’06”) with numbers that rival the best ever at the position. However, his most impressive workout time was his 6.81 three-cone drill. How does that compare to the NFL’s top tight ends? Rob Gronkowski (7.18), Travis Kelce (7.09) and Zach Ertz (7.08) weren’t close. What about the more athletic tight ends in the league? O.J. Howard (6.85), Evan Engram (6.92) and David Njoku (6.97) came close. Another former Hawkeye, George Kittle (6.76), is one of the few NFL tight ends who comes close to Fant’s time.
Former teammate T.J. Hockenson, who had a strong workout himself, remains the favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Fant is the No. 1 tight end on several draft boards around the league.
Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State
The first time Kahale Warring touched a football, he was a senior in high school in Sonora, Calif. A few examples to illustrate his football inexperience:
When Warring arrived at San Diego State for his first camp, the special teams coordinator asked him how many players were on the field at once. “I said 13 because I never really thought about it,” Warring said. “I won’t answer that wrong again.”
When the Aztecs’ coaches mentioned moving him from wide receiver to tight end, Warring had to google “tight end” to understand what that meant. His high school didn’t use the position.
Warring was a do-everything athlete growing up, with basketball and the AAU circuit as his focus. On the hardwood, he averaged 19.6 points and 10.8 rebounds as a senior and was named conference MVP. Over his first three years in high school, Warring also lettered in water polo, tennis, cross-country and swimming. And then his senior year, Warring added football to his resume, lining up at wide receiver and earning all-conference honors in his only season.
Four years later, Warring is at the NFL Scouting Combine and showing why he is worth a draft pick, possibly a Day Two selection.
On the field at Lucas Oil Stadium, Warring looked smooth during the drills. In the gauntlet, he did a great job using his body control and coordination to track, adjust and finish on the move. Despite his inexperience, Warring doesn’t need much thought with his footwork – he is a natural athlete in his plant-and-go movements.
Warring also performed well in the athletic testing drills, posting a 4.67 40-yard dash. His vertical (36.5), broad jump (10’02”) and short shuttle (4.25) also surpassed the NFL average for the position. I spotted an NFL scout buddy in the stands at the bench press the next day and asked him how Warring looked, and his smile went from ear to ear. Warring is an ascending prospect, and his hype train picked up speed in Indianapolis.
Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
An above-average athlete, there were high expectations for Dillard entering the combine, and he either met or exceeded them on Friday. He looked outstanding in pass protection drills – quick pitter-patter feet and easy lower-body movements.
In the “short-pull power” drill, Dillard’s torso flexibility and loose hips were on display as the pulling lineman, advancing to the second level, engaging the linebacker (another lineman holding a shield) and driving him from the spot. This drill helps evaluate the hips and movement skills of a lineman, but also their overall body balance, requiring them to use their eyes, hands and lower body in unison. And Dillard looked flawless in this drill, achieving his balance and allowing his natural biomechanics to do the work. He also crushed the broad jump with a 09’08” jump, which is much better than the average for tackles in the NFL (08’08”).
Dillard has the best feet among the offensive linemen in this draft with outstanding lower body flexibility, which could push his draft value in the top half of Round One.
Blake Cashman, LB, Minnesota
I received plenty of “who?” comments when I included Cashman in my pre-combine top-10 linebacker rankings, but his performance in Indianapolis backed up that high ranking.
Cashman (6-1 1/8, 237) finished in the top five among linebackers in the 40-yard dash (4.50), vertical (37.5), broad jump (10’03”), short shuttle (4.12) and posted a 6.95 three-cone time. The one negative number for Cashman this week? Only 30 1/8-inch arms.
These numbers will help raise his profile, but his tape is even more impressive. Cashman has outstanding play speed, toughness and football intelligence, rarely missing tackles. After spending his first three seasons as a reserve and special teamer, Cashman posted 104 tackles, 15.0 tackles for loss and five passes defended as a senior and will soon be drafted in the NFL.
Sean Bunting, CB, Central Michigan
I hadn’t watched much of Bunting when he declared early immediately after the season, but I was on board once I studied his tape, giving him a borderline top-100 grade based on the film.
And after his combine performance, I think more will start paying attention to his potential. At 6-0 3/8 and 195 pounds, he posted a 4.42 40-yard dash with a 41.5-inch vertical and 10’05” broad jump.
Bunting has the athleticism to run better routes than the receiver, something that frequently showed on his film. His undisciplined mechanics led to mistakes, but he is usually in position to recover with his cover-and-clobber mentality. While he needs time to get stronger and become a more technically sound player, Bunting plays loose and suffocates the catch point as a press-man corner with starting potential.
Fallers
Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida
Entering combine week, I was told by multiple team sources that the interviews could be a make-or-break step for Polite due to maturity concerns. And the feedback leaving Indianapolis has not been positive. I have heard from multiple sources who used terms like “temperamental” and “train wreck” to describe their meetings with the pass rusher.
Listed at 242 pounds at Florida, Polite tipped the scales at 258 pounds in Indy and didn’t carry it well during the testing drills. He ran a 4.84 in the 40-yard dash and jumped 32 inches before bowing out of the event, citing a hamstring injury.
Polite is talented at getting after the quarterback, but teams aren’t going to spend a first-round pick on a player they do not trust. I can’t speak for all 32 teams, but several clubs have crossed Polite off their list of options in the first round.
Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State
An inconsistent run defender on tape, the nucleus of Jones’ draft grade is his athleticism to rush the passer from the interior. But his combine numbers fell short of expectations.
At 281 pounds, Jones looked heavy in the three-cone drill (7.71) and short shuttle (4.53), also falling short in the jumps with a 31.5-inch vertical and 9’02” broad jump. He plays like a slippery athlete on film, but his workout numbers didn’t match. For teams that were concerned about his “fit” prior to the combine, Jones’ workout won’t sway doubters.
Back to the tape
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
Metcalf last Friday: “I’m expecting to run fast tomorrow and shock a lot of people.”
And on Saturday, Metcalf backed up his talk, running a 4.33 40-yard dash. At 6-3 3/8 and a shredded 228 pounds with 34 7/8-inch arms, that is a remarkable time. Not only does he look the part, but the speed is also there, showing off his fast, powerful strides.
However, we already knew Metcalf was fast in a straight line. The more important tests were the shuttles and three-cone drills, helping gauge balance, change of direction and short-area quickness. And Metcalf posted historically poor numbers in those drills with a 7.38 three-cone and 4.50 short shuttle. To put those times in context, Washington State offensive tackle Andre Dillard (6-5, 315) had a 7.44 three-cone and 4.40 short shuttle. There are productive NFL receivers who were below average in either the three-cone or short shuttle, but rarely both.
On tape, those numbers match how Metcalf plays, struggling to drop his hips and burst in and out of his breaks. He is a rudimentary route runner, which was just fine with what Ole Miss asked of him in that offense, but NFL teams will expect his route tree to grow at the next level.
I don’t blame anyone who is excited by Metcalf’s 40-yard dash and jumps, but you should also be equally concerned about his three-cone and short shuttle.
Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt
Few cornerbacks tower over wideouts like Williams, also offering the foot quickness to pattern-match early in the route. However, vertical patterns are an issue, as he simply lacks the long-speed to keep up with receivers on deep routes. And that was reflected in Williams’ 4.64 40-yard dash. He chose not to participate in the vertical or broad jump.
Williams is huge at 6-3 5/8 and 211 pounds, but I was expecting more of a 4.55-4.58 number, which is easier to stomach than mid-4.6. The New York Jets’ Trumaine Johnson is one of the few examples of a 4.6 cornerback who has played at a high level in the NFL.
Cornerback is a stopwatch position, and it will be tough for teams to overlook Williams’ 4.64 number. Evaluators will go back to the tape to make sure they feel better about other parts of his game, which could help mask his lack of ideal long-speed.
Miles Boykin, WR, Notre Dame
The most surprising combine performance belonged to Boykin, who created buzz with his athletic testing results. At 6-4 and 220 pounds, he ran the fastest three-cone (6.77) among the receivers and tied for the best vertical jump (43.5 inches). Boykin also impressed with a 4.42 40-yard dash (ninth best among receivers), 11’07” broad jump (second best) and 4.07 short shuttle (third best).
Even the most ardent Irish fans would admit that Boykin didn’t consistently play with that type of speed. His numbers suggest he plays with suddenness, but on tape, it looked like he needed a moment to get back to full speed after gearing down mid-route.
Boykin is a good-sized player with the adjustment skills to be a reliable target, but getting a better read on his play speed and route athleticism will be on the to-do list of evaluators following the combine.
Alex Barnes, RB, Kansas State
Who led the Big 12 in rushing last season? Even the most avid college football fans would likely guess Iowa State’s David Montgomery. However, Barnes (and his 1,355 rushing yards) is the correct answer, and he turned heads with his performance at the combine.
At 6-0 3/8 and 226 pounds, Barnes was pedestrian in the 40-yard dash (4.59) but shined in the vertical (38.5), broad jump (10’05”) and three-cone (6.95), posting the best short shuttle (4.10) and bench press (34) among the running backs.
The combine is an extensive cross-checking exercise – if the numbers don’t match with the tape, then you investigate why. That is the case with Barnes, who doesn’t run nearly as fast due to his inconsistent decision-making behind the line of scrimmage. However, when he has a clear lane, Barnes shows lower-body burst, lowering his pads to run over defensive backs.
Trysten Hill, DT, UCF
Both in the athletic testing and positional drills, Hill shined on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium. At 6-2 3/4 and 308 pounds, he ran a 5.04 40-yard dash, posted 28 reps on the bench press and 35-inch vertical.
However, his 7.70 three-cone drill stands out – and not in a positive way. When I studied his film, I saw a flash player. Hill’s rush would tend to stall out quickly, abandoning his technique early in the rep and relying on his effort and foot quickness to get the job done. There were also mixed reviews from scouts on his football character and his relationship with the new coaching staff at UCF. Aside from the tape, teams will be doing extra work on Hill to figure out what makes him tick.
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Agamemnon
